If Germany was leaving the EU instead of the UK

[MyNameIsArthur]

Just a hypothetical question really. Just curious.

If it was Germany leaving the EU, do you think it would have the same amount of difficulty negotiating a beneficial deal for itself?

Can you imagine the press?

Yes, if it arsed around the same way that the UK Government is doing. For one thing they would have to unpick 62 years worth of Treaties not 44, having been founder members of the EU.

Fortunately modern Germany is not so stupid. They don't allow Referenda, having learnt the hard way in the 1930s exactly where they can lead.

Germany is core of the EU. EU can't exist without it.
EU can exist pretty well without Britain.

Hypothetically

The Germans are meticulous in their planning.

They wouldn't have given their people the vote unless very robust plans were in place.

Yes. Bit petulant to think it's only tricky because it's us. Germany might handle the practicalities better .

Partner is German. He told me last night they're all astonished that the British aren't "forcing" another referendum, because they don't understand (as he apparently does) that our reluctance to do so is because of 'our culture'. So, what would the Germans do in our situation, then? I asked. How would they 'force' their government to hold another vote? He didn't have an answer for that.

Anyway, from everything he's told me I agree with others that such a thing could never happen in Germany, because i) they're so integral to the EU and ii) meticulous planners.

It would be the end of the EU then. It would become Francobenelux + some sort of Mediterranean league + Visegrad nations.

It would be very precise and well organised.

In this hypothetical scenario I'd be most interested to see what Austria did.

Austria seems a bit 'stand offish' compared to Germany. Switzerland is another step further than Austria.

From what I understand, it would be impossible to hold an "EU referendum" in Germany as the use of referendums at federal level is extremely restricted for historical reasons.

So the situation couldn't arise unless an anti EU government was elected, and given that German governments tend to be coalitions it is hard to imagine how that could happen.

I doubt it would happen anywhere else. Surely noone else is as stupid?

Or brave enough?!

Or brave enough?!
PMSL at 'brave'.
It is the very definition of stupidity to be doing this. It would presumably be easier for Germany as they are a single country, whereas the UK is a nation state comprised of 4 countries, not all of whom wish to leave. The way the government is carrying on, you'd almost think this hadn't occurred to them prior to promising a referendum.

If DE did do this, and somehow EU could continue to exist without them, they would formulate a plan to be implemented over a long period with multi-party backing and input. The whole thing would have heavy features of consensus building and careful multiphase withdrawal and deep consultation with affected industries to ease the transition.

Doesn't sound familiar, does it?

Austria would never hand this decision to their people, too many reactionary elements.

We may well get a parallel process to observe if Scotland finally withdraws from UK.

Well i guess if you think suicide and mass murder is brave.
If austerity has already killed thousands then you aint seen nothin yet

Why would they? They almost rule the roost.

The situation would be completely different, there is no comparison.

Germany is a founder member of the EU, it is by far the biggest, richest country in the EU, it is a member of Schengen and its economy underpins the Euro. The ECB is essentially the old Bundesbank under a new name. In many ways, Germany is the EU.

They'd be doing it so differently. For one thing I cannot imagine them offering a vote without having plans in place for either outcome.
Our press would be having a fucking field day and no doubt shoehorning references to past world wars in whatever they could.

It was a reasonable question until the 'brave enough' follow-up.

The Germans would have had a very different approach. Their Gerexiters would not be pompus, upperclass idiots with a strong line in goading the xenophobic tendencies of those who are scared of immigration and also all seeking a return to the days of the Glorious Empire.

Instead it would probably be around the idea that EU membership would no longer being broadly in the interests of the German people. Freedom of movement, freedom of capital, unified rules, shared interests all current mean this is not the case.

If they did start a process to leave it would be planned. It would be clear about what was being lost and what would replace it and there would be full analysis of the consequences. As opposed to the current Brexiter chant of "it will be fine, trust us". So no German would have been an idiot and believed that the number on the side of a bus was the positive of leaving.

The Germans do not need to be brave about leaving the EU because they like the EU. They like what it offers and they like the various ways of trying to the the EU to work for Europe. Unlike the UK which has always been annoyed that Johnny Foreigner had their own ideas.

Is still a reasonable question. The brave comment was in response to the stupid comment. I don't believe that half the UK population is stupid . That is an offensive thing to say. I would say it was brave to take a leap of faith and vote for change rather than the status quo believing that in the long term it will make our country better. However, our Government do not seem to be making a great job of negotiating on the country's behalf. That is the biggest worry.

I would say it was brave to take a leap of faith and vote for change rather than the status quo believing that in the long term it will make our country better.
That might be logical if you knew what the 'change' was, but you were voting for the unknown, for something that had no plan. How brave. [Slow handclap...]

Rather than brave, it was foolhardy to vote for a vision of the world that was at least 60 years out of date. Globalised manufacturing and trade has almost replaced some aspects of 'sovereignty'.

Every time someone walks away from a relationship that they consider bad, it is a brave step into the unknown, with some difficulties along the way, but with faith that it will be better for everyone in the long run.

The EU is an out of date cumbersome institution being a protectionist customs union, with one dominant nation within it and has low growth rates, high unemployment and it's main objective is federalism. There are other countries in Europe such as EFTA countries that are performing alot better than EU countries and I would prefer the UK to follow their path rather than the EU path as they have a better outlook in terms of global trade. Nothing out if date about that.

Every time someone walks away from a relationship that they consider bad, it is a brave step into the unknown, with some difficulties along the way, but with faith that it will be better for everyone in the long run.

And sometimes it's not. I have known people regret getting divorced. One couple remarried some years later. Another one made another poor marriage.