If Germany was leaving the EU instead of the UK

[MyNameIsArthur]

Just a hypothetical question really. Just curious.

If it was Germany leaving the EU, do you think it would have the same amount of difficulty negotiating a beneficial deal for itself?

One of the reasons the UK leaving is particularly problematic is the unique political situation in Northern Ireland. This is not comparable to any other member state.

Referenda are banned in Germany so it wouldn’t happen. They are banned because they think that putting complex questions to a simplistic yes or no vote is the route to facism.

If Germany left then it would be a whole different scenario.
That would be crap for the EU.
Brexit is going to be crap for the UK, people are already losing jobs because of it.
The whole situation is likea bad movie

Gotta laugh at the ‘thousands have died from austerity’ comment above

There are some deluded souls on these forums for sure

Remain is a cult

If Germany left the EU, it would be the EU asking Germany for trade deals!

It's not a question of the Germans thinking that Referenda lead to Fascism; they know from their history how dictators manipulate people.

I'd be interested to know where MynameisArthur got the information that EFTA countries are doing better than the EU

Growth in the EU last year was 2.5% (stronger than the UK where growth had declined), whereas although Iceland grew 7.4% (mostly as a result of its recovery from the Kreppa), it's only c2% of EFTA GDP and both Norway and Switzerland, which together make up about 95% of EFTA, grew 1.1% and 1.4% respectively.

Pesky statistics

And at others reality hits in the third week of living in a grotty bedsit. The UK always seems to think that the EU is somehow beneath them... it really isn’t

Yes, I've been there after separation and it was rather crap and depressing and lonely, but after a bit of time, I met someone wonderful and live in a nice house now in a beautiful part of the country and life is a lot better . I could have remained in my previous relationship and settled for the status quo but I took a brave step and left and initially it was financially and emotionally tough, but it got better and am happier.

I don't think the UK thinks the EU is beneath us. I just think that the UK has never really been comfortable with the direction the EU has always intended to take. I was just a child when the referendum in 1975 took place so don't know what kind of campaign was held back then but I am guessing that the Remain campaign said nothing about the EEC intending to move towards more integration over time, political and otherwise. If they had, the referendum then would have voted to leave.

More up-to-date growth figures I've seen show Iceland at 7.2%, Switzerland at 3.4%, Norway at 3.3% and the EU at 2.1%.

IMF figures for richest countries in Europe show Norway 2nd richest, Switzerland 4th, Iceland 8th whereas Germany is 9th, UK 13th and France 14th so the EFTA countries are doing really well

I Hope you didn't vote for Brexit on the basis of it being similar to your relationship history.

And as an economy you think we're more like Iceland and Norway????

Yes, but I've known people divorce and regret it, and say they would have tried harder with their marriage if they had known.

Such a sensitive comment. The relationship analogy comes from previous points about voting to leave being a brave decision for people.

No. We used to be in EFTA though until we were taken into the EU. The point I was making though was that these countries are doing rather well outside the EU.

EU growth has averaged 1.78% from 1996 to 2018 which is not very impressive really. Such a wonderfully large market should be streets ahead

You have to question why we chose to leave EFTA and chose of our own accord, (or Ted Heath's) to join the EEC, and our then elected Parliaments chose to accept that this turned into the EU. We weren't 'taken into' anything, as though it was an arranged marriage with a young girl and a middle aged man, in which the young girl had no say.

As for EFTA Countries - they are all in Schengen and all part of the Single Market. So although they are not in the EU they are happy to pay for a considerable amount of access and accept the EU's rules.

I think maybe it was Ted Heath's accord to take us into the EEC, then John Majors for the Mastricht Treaty and Tony Blair for further integration. To be fair, voters kept us in the EEC in 1975, so we did have a say then but did we really have a say in what happened in the 40 years since?

EEA EFTA members , but that is 3 out of 4 so yes, you are right. Switzerland, as an EFTA member has been negotiating restrictions on people movement I believe. I am not opposed to the single market but feel that with regards to people, it should be restricted to the free movement of labour. EFTA members don't pay as much for access to the single market and dont have to accept all EU rules and rules don't apply to their domestic trade.

I think there is a political and economic will all round to have an agreement with the UK/EU. However, the issue over NI is the main obstacle and I hope that there is a solution to this otherwise I think we probably need to hold another referendum if No Deal is the end result

Brexit is vastly more complicated than any domestic divorce, even Bill Gates's if he ever had one.
David Davies admitted he thought Brexit was simple, but then stated it was more complicated than a moon landing

I live in Germany
Referenda are outlawed in their constitution, because of how Hitler was able to manipulate them

However, if the German government ever wanted to invoke Article 50 - in order to leave - they would FIRST:
. Have public debate on FACTS and build up a national consensus of a large majority for this change
. Scope out the various Post-Brexit options
. Order impact studies of each
. Analyse any other international treaty obligations that might conflict - like the GFA - and find measures to keep from breaking this treaty
. Use these to agree a united government policy
. Formulate plans to achieve the objectives
. Explain this fully to the public and again achieve majority agreement

Then invoke A50 and:
. Appoint a dignified, well qualified team to negotiate
. Negotiate seriously and focus on their objectives for the country, not one political party

So, if Germany was leaving the EU, it would indeed be very different to the UK leaving
but that's just the difference between a country that is run efficiently and a chaotic one run by ignorant fools & looters for their own profit.

as an EFTA member has been negotiating restrictions on people movement I believe.

My understanding was that a Referendum result wanted restrictions on FoM but the Government found that it wasn't compatible, so eventually said No.

but did we really have a say in what happened in the 40 years since?

Did you not vote in the General Elections we have had since then? Despite the FPTP system governments which are out of touch with the population eventually get voted out. I think Major probably pushed too quickly for the integration of the Eastern Bloc states, and Blair misjudged the situation and failed to use the measures available to limit the number of East Europeans wishing to come here. But otherwise we have had a say, but people can't be bothered to vote, so they get the Government they deserve. MEP's like Farage can't be bothered to attend.

Scottishdiem

Don’t know where you are getting your info from but to say ‘ They like being in the EU’ is not exactly true.
(In my experience) They like being able to travel without having any boarder controls, but they miss the DMark as it was a stronger currency than the Euro, they are not very keen on having to bail out bankrupt countries (ie Greece) when they are still paying through their taxes for East Germany and they are not keen on the Million plus immigrants/refugees they have to pay for who cause lots of trouble for the average man/woman who lives close to groups of these knife carrying people who don’t want to intergrate. And they REALLY don’t like the rising number of people who are being tempted into the far right/neo natzism because of the vast numbers of immigrants. My German brother has friends who are being seduced by the far right after problems with groups of young Turkish men who carry knives and feel secure in their protected status.

It's odd how this notion of German efficiency persists. I lived in Germany in the 80s for six years, when it really was dazzlingly efficient in comparison to the UK, and again much more recently for another four years, when it really, really wasn't. Same part of Germany. Absorbing the east had a massive impact, as has the EU project. It's slow so you don't see it so much if you're always there.

@MyNameIsArthur

it is a brave step into the unknown, with some difficulties along the way, but with faith that it will be better for everyone in the long run

If there was the slightest bit of actual evidence that leaving the EU would benefit us, i'd change my opinion, instead all i hear is "in the long term" and "faith" 2 terms i associate with religion!!! and of course is impossible to disprove or quantify.
especially when this decision cannot reasonably be undone.

Difficulties mean someones job, someones repossession, food bank, relationship break down.

We are leaving with nothing in its place, least of all an EFTA style solution, which is far removed from a FTA.

One of the first consequence of this silly decision is even less nurses and other healthcare workers in our NHS, again cannot be undone or easily corrected.

As for Germany leaving
If a remain-or-leave EU-referendum were held in Germany, 82 percent would vote Remain and only 14 percent Leave, (2018)

Although a financial union is handy in that it is a 'practical' way that the various countries within Europe can help each other it is the relative peace and stability that is the real benefit. Granted there may be tensions but the chance of all out war between any member countries is pretty remote.
If Mr Putin or anyone else 'declares war' on the UK in April next year and the UK has left the EU, the compulsion for EU members to come to the UK's aid has gone, they can simply say 'not our problem sunshine'.