To think we are heading towards an economic crisis?

[crunchymint]

The pound has fallen as Brexit approaches and there are no proper deals in place.
Retail spending in Britain is down.
The Turkish Lira fell by 20% today.
The Russian Ruble has also fallen.
All of this will have an impact on the economy. I see us hurtling towards an economic crisis.

Economics is extraordinarily bad at predicting the future, which is why many people question its claim to be a science. There is a lot of impressive mathematics in ecobomics but it is all dependent on the inputs, which are very random.

There are many measures warning of a potential collapse (volatility creeping up after a period of very low levels, long bull market etc). However people making bets on future collapses have generally lost all their money before the collapse happens.

It is hard for me to see Brexit triggering a collapse. Ultimately global interests are aligned to banging the uk and EC commission’s head together until they come to some kind of face saving deal.

I’m addition it is always easy to see scary factors but harder to see positive ones. Global corporate profits are strong, commodity prices are stable and, despite some regional instability, we are in a time of peace. New energy sources are being developed and becoming cheaper and technology, which should improve productivity, is advancing space.

Personally I am cautiously bullish. I am remaining invested (in a globally and sectorially diversified way). I think we see substantial new highs before the inevitable correction.

However anything could happen...

I struggle with it most because the more the background to Brexit comes out - the false advertising, the lies, the minute manipulation of each population's little bigotries

The people I know who voted leave did so immediately after the announcement of the referendum.

The campaigning from either side didn't sway them because they had already made up their minds.

Their very real reasons were not even covered in either sides campaign.

I would lay BREXIT at the door of DC who had become so far removed from the realities of everyday people's lives he didn't see it coming. All he had to say was he would use the result as an advisement and it would be one less mess we would be in

I agree Peregrina. The occasional tramp, as we used to call the sad few homeless, was rare 50 years ago. There was council housing for the low paid and a large network of 'mental hospitals' which housed many of those who failed to manage life. They were not ideal but provided a refuge for thousands, sometimes for a lifetime. To see many of these people wandering the streets in the 1980s, bewildered and sleeping where they might, whilst property developers turned their 'homes' into 'luxury apartments' was an illustration of thatcherism at its finest. Compassion has all but vanished from our society and self interest prevails. We are going to pay a high price for it.

I am old enough to remember a time when we didn't have homeless people on the streets

I assume you're going back to the days of the workhouse then? Because once those were abolished we started getting homeless on the streets....

No I am not going back to the days of the workhouse. I am taking exception to the idea that the poor are always with us, yes, and our attitude is 'so what?' Contrast this with the founding fathers of the welfare state who had seen the deprivation of the 1930s and a viscious cruel war, and wanted to build a better society.

Recessions are cyclical, yes, so let's pile in and make them worse, seems to be one attitude displayed here.

I am taking exception to the idea that the poor are always with us, yes, and our attitude is 'so what? To be blunt my attitude is that you must have walked round with your eyes closed! That and nobody here has said "So what?"

But who do you think is piling in? There are 2 'sides' here and both are discussing their opinions, so both could be piling in and, from either perspective, making things worse!

Re the homeless- I worked for a major London council 14 years ago. At that time they knew every single homeless sleeper "living" in the borough. They had all been offered support and those that slept rough had declined it for various reasons. As the council knew who they were and where they slept, teams went out at night and checked on them. I seriously doubt that any council now would have enough funds to do this.

Being homeless is not as cut and dried as not being able to afford somewhere to call home.
A lot of reasons that people are homeless nowadays which weren't around 40+ years ago.

We have a lot of immigrants who come here because they think Briton is the land of milk and honey and are going to be given a house as soon as they arrive.
The reality obviously is somewhat different.

There are more people with drug and alcohol problems who cannot manage in a home environment.

Then you have those that have mental health problems that in the past would have been looked after by mental health hospitals.

Being poor is only another reason why someone cannot get somewhere to call home. Not the only reason

I agree OP but you left out one thing - and that IS, generally speaking, under our control. Debt you can't afford.

How many people max out their credit cards, buy a house they can't really afford on a massive mortgage (though I think the banks are less irresponsible with their lending now) and buy expensive cars, again on credit?

If you lose your job for whatever reason and you have loads of debt, you are heading for trouble.

I realise some people have to get into debt to make ends meet, I am talking about the people who insist on status symbols they can't afford. Live within your means and you will be in a much better situation if the worst happens. It doesn't matter what the Jones down the road are doing. Don't compare, just do the sensible thing.

There is lots of research to show that if you get someone who is homeless off the streets within days of them being there, there chances are pretty good. The longer someone is on the streets, the harder it is to get them successfully off the streets. There was an initiative called - no second night - that was pretty successful at this. Of course the funding is no longer there.

running Incredibly simplistic. For women the most common reason for homelessness is domestic violence. And domestic violence services to support women have also been cut.

I agree OP
Hence why for the past 12mths I've been scrimping, saving and selling and finally cleared all debts. We cleared the house mortgage 6-7yrs ago then slipped a little after a decade of non stop saving and found ourselves waist deep in debt again.
All sorted now..sigh!!
Yep, I too think Brexit will hit this country like a tsunami.
We're now just trying to save as much as possible, if the tsunami turns out to be a ripple then we'll have enough saved to have a good laugh someplace nice.

I think Call me Dave and George Osborne have a lot to answer for even having it in the first place. Too big headed to think people won't do what they're told. I also think it should be revisited but can't see how it could be done in time. Agreeing to postpone would be good but again cant see how.

We're still waiting for the consequences of 2008 to actually become reality... they've just been papering over the cracks with printed money and ''emergency'' interest rates for the last 10 years.

We voted for economic downturn- well 52% of those who voted in June 2016 did.

The question is by how much and over what period.

Agreed saints. But will the 52 per cent ever admit to it? So far any disquiet about the outcome seems to be completely the fault of the 48 per cent who simply aren't positive enough about the dubious result and its potential advantages, so far undisclosed.

Brexit (unless it is really messed up) is a second order factor compared to global economic growth.

Agree larry but its looking pretty messy already and not really improving the situation here is it?

Regimes like erdogan's Turkey and trump's US and incipient brexitania destroy economies. The EU was made to mitigate these sort of men in power.

erdogan has tried to employ similar strategies to those used by leaders he copies, but the markets aren't buying it. Hence the destruction of the turkish economy which is sending shock waves.

Suits Putin, though.

Brexit is a death sentence for this country's economy, and many of us, but will also be very dangerous for countries like Greece, if this regime insists on crashing out.
www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2018/08/17/greece-report-brexit-eu/

Suits Putin even more.

The EU was made to mitigate individual nations' vulnerablities to economic and political shocks.

We voted for economic downturn- well 52% of those who voted in June 2016 did.

Did they? I thought most of them voted for Brexit because they believed the promises that Britain will be better off.

No one votes for an economic downturn/ crash out, unless they're a disaster capitalist like mogg, banks and their funders.

Several people on mn said they expected the economy to struggle for 20-30 yrs but think ‘it will be worth it i the end...’

Worth it in the end. Which may be closer than they think.

It is definitely the end of the UK, and a tiny diminished little country like England is going to get gobbled up economically.

I dunno which brexiteers fuck me off the most:

The ones who say anything negative is project fear, and we just have to think positive and it will be brilliant.

Or the ones who say they expect hardship for a generation but hey.