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Brexit
Original poster

To think we are heading towards an economic crisis?

142 replies

crunchymint · 12/08/2018 01:03

The pound has fallen as Brexit approaches and there are no proper deals in place.
Retail spending in Britain is down.
The Turkish Lira fell by 20% today.
The Russian Ruble has also fallen.
All of this will have an impact on the economy. I see us hurtling towards an economic crisis.

OP posts:
SlartiAardvark · 14/08/2018 10:51

Oh god we're always in some sort of crisis.

Exactly.

Don't let that get in the way of a good 'ol MN Panicfest though...

Safeandwarm · 14/08/2018 10:55

Don’t you wonder if brexit, Donald Trump, the rise of the far right etc might’ve been caused by the last financial crisis and many countries choosing austerity? The fact that bankers and heads of large tax avoiding corporations have barely faced any repercussions for pushing people into poverty. People are angry and have voted in anger. I’m suprised there isn’t more unrest.

CuriousaboutSamphire · 14/08/2018 11:31

How anyone can be sanguine even about that happening is beyond me. Who is being sanguine, it's fucking scary, but not as simple as some are trying to make it.

A crash of some sort is overdue, Brexit or not, it has been on the cards for a very long time. What makes it even scarier is that successive governments have used the same delaying tactics, presumably so it will happen on someone elses watch. Those tactics have not been a good thing for anyone in the long term Many have been able to achieve some sort of economic balance based on low interest rates... that has got to be terrifying, just as it was back in the late 80s/90s.

No one is sanguine about it. Some of us are trying to be realistic, based on past experience. We could wrong, as wrong as all of the doom and gloom merchants, but we will be as prepared as we can be and not in the least surprised... which is, I think, better than trying to find someone to blame and staving off full blown panic by discussing stockpiling!

prunemerealgood · 14/08/2018 11:56

I agree that we've been through (and some of us have weathered) financial crises before but look at what's different:

  • the rise of very obvious lies as a successful political strategy
  • the rise of the far right
  • the acceptance of racism/ableism/all forms of discrimination in public discourse
  • a relative lack of politicians who are decent, experienced and measured compared to previous decades
  • electoral fraud going unpunished
  • a deeply successful strategy worldwide to cause rather incomprehensible disruptions whose effects we only see later (Brexit being one of these)
  • a compromised media

All of these existed one way or another in smaller doses in earlier decades but there's a perfect storm right now. We are going to be trying to weather a massive political shift towards a hateful libertarian style dog-eat-dog free market and we have given away our biggest safety net (the EU) and are dismantling a further safety net (the NHS and to some extent the welfare state) - it's unclear how we're going to get through because all the power lies in the hands of forces we no longer understand.

So yeah, I am worried about the next economic downturn.

Original poster
crunchymint · 14/08/2018 12:27

I am in my mid 50s and have lived through hard economic times. The reality is it is easier when you are younger to live through them, as you have time to retrain, get a better job, etc. As you get older, unless you are well off, it becomes much harder to weather economic storms as there is no time to make up financial losses.
I remember the decimated mining villages of the 80s where plenty of men in their 50s never worked again.

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Racecardriver · 14/08/2018 12:31

We are overdue a recession. The government's actions in attempting to delay a recession combined with brexit is likely to result in a full blown crisis. Cest la vie. Economic crisis is part and parcel of living. I doubt that ss yes in Russia and Turkey are likely to result in a global crisis. More concerning is trump/general trend towards protectionism. Hopefully brexit will counteract that. Global trade and international law in general needs a shake up.

Rhayader · 14/08/2018 12:40

Unemployment figures released today show that unemployment is the lowest it’s been since 1975. Not all bad!

Peregrina · 14/08/2018 12:49

Not all bad!

I mentioned people being sanguine - here we have an example.
Even during the 1930s and WW2 some people did OK for themselves, but an awful lot didn't and of course many didn't survive.

SheWoreBlueVelvet · 14/08/2018 12:54

I think we are.
It will be shit but we are still a first world country.
My concern isn't Brexit but the massive gap between rich and poor. Its horribly noticeable down south now.

KennDodd · 14/08/2018 14:13

the rise of very obvious lies as a successful political strategy

A that for all our bluster it goes completely unpunished either by parliament or the electorate.

SlartiAardvark · 14/08/2018 14:36

Even during the 1930s and WW2 some people did OK for themselves, but an awful lot didn't and of course many didn't survive.

And now have a look at the difference between "poor" then & now.

The Poor now still tend to have a hugely more comfortable lifestyle than in the 30's & 40's.

prunemerealgood · 14/08/2018 14:40

People are going hungry right now in our country and this winter people will die due to fuel poverty. We're not so great. Sure, most of us are ok!

Peregrina · 14/08/2018 14:47

It depends who you think poor. I doubt whether people who are homeless and on the streets have more comfortable lifestyle, never mine 'hugely more' than people in the 1930s. The lifestyles for the majority have improved since then which applies to both rich and poor.

SlartiAardvark · 14/08/2018 15:42

I doubt whether people who are homeless and on the streets have more comfortable lifestyle

No, but they never will & it's nothing to do with the economic downturn - they're there anyway....

I have sympathy for them, but they're not the yardstick to use....

Rollonweekend · 14/08/2018 15:44

My grandparents in the 30s and 40, parents in the 70s, me in the 80s and 90s, now since the millenium. Post wars Britain has had major fluctuations, see saws of financial boom and bust. Brexit is another symptom of what happens when successive governments try to micromanage via taxes.

yes and my parents paid 17% interest rates on their property in the 70's but surely we don't want that ??

prunemerealgood · 14/08/2018 15:52

I really struggle with "Brexit is a symptom". It sounds like lazy thinking. But then nothing about Brexit really adds up, anywhere.

prunemerealgood · 14/08/2018 15:54

Actually I struggle with it most because the more the background to Brexit comes out - the false advertising, the lies, the minute manipulation of each population's little bigotries - the more it insults us to have it boiled down to a rather crap soundbite.

Original poster
crunchymint · 14/08/2018 17:32

Rhayader So many people who would have been unemployed at one time, are either not counted in the stats - sanctioned, on un paid work placements sent by DWP, or on zero hour contracts or part time work when they want to work full time. Our current employment figure is not a true reflection of the reality.

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CuriousaboutSamphire · 14/08/2018 19:35

Rollon We will get those interest rates back, as a consequence of the very low rates that have been artificially held for so long. There was a similar low then high back then... I hate to think how bad the backlash will be this time, it was bad enough the last 2 times!

Prune that's possibly because you are still focussed on Brexit as the bad thing when many others see it as one in a long line of push backs, corrections, responses to the long term suppression of interest rates and other 'fiscal fiddles' that successive governments have desperately clung to.

And, as crunchy said, today's employment figures are just lies! Yay, the feel good factor! Pah!

Oh, for an honest politician!

Peregrina · 15/08/2018 06:32

No, but they [ the homeless] never will & it's nothing to do with the economic downturn - they're there anyway....

I strongly disagree. I am old enough to remember a time when we didn't have homeless people on the streets, and going abroad and being shocked at seeing them elsewhere. Our own economic policies have helped to lead to this, and time and money spent on Brexit now, is time and money not spent on alleviating domestic problems. The poor will always be with us, but at one time we prided ourselves on being decent enough to have a welfare state and having a safety net.

CuriousaboutSamphire · 15/08/2018 06:37

I am old enough to remember a time when we didn't have homeless people on the streets Really?

I've moved a lot, heading South over 50+ years and everywhere I have lived there have been homeless people in the cities, some in the larger towns. Some very visible, some less so.

I can't imagine any large urban area has never had any homeless people.

SchrodingersMeowth · 15/08/2018 06:44

I have serious medical issues that are uncurable and I’m pretty terrified tbh. I can’t work to claw in extra money and do can’t do much either as my carer. We’re already completely struggling to make ends meet and I’ve just had to return a PIP review form a year early...

Worried is not the word.

Peregrina · 15/08/2018 06:46

Really, yes. I didn't say there weren't homeless people - it is that we never used to leave them to fend for themselves on the streets in the visible way we do now. There used to be hostels for the homeless.

CuriousaboutSamphire · 15/08/2018 06:52

???? There still are hostels, lots more of them than there used to be - I volunteer in a foodbank and we support a few of the local ones - note that a few of them

There have always been street dwellers, ones who chose not to use shelters, for a wide variety of reasons.

And we also have The Big Issue and its methodology - which makes some much more visible.

And we have degraded and degrading mental health care, increasing the numbers - care in the community and all that crap.

Not to mention professional beggars - can't believe they really exist, but they do and are very visible.

But they have always been there.

QuoadUltra · 15/08/2018 07:00

We are not in an economic crisis. Recessions are cyclical and we are likely to have one of those at some point. It is unlikely to be because of ‘Trump’ and ‘Brexit’.

In UK we currently have more people employed than ever before. We have the highest level of unemployment since 1974. And the number of people on zero hours contracts fell by 105,000 in the last year.

When we are in an economic crisis you will know, because people will lose their incomes.