How will a No-Deal Brexit affect you?

[nodealbrexit]

NC as I'm giving a lot of personal detail here...

I'm an immigrant to this country, I hold dual Commonwealth + EU citizenship so I don't really have a personal dog in the fight so to speak.

HOWEVER, a no-deal Brexit will impact our family. DH is a banker, he is an FCA "Approved Person" which means he can give financial advice/act as an investment manager/M&A/capital raising in the UK, and by association, the EU. My understanding is, if we leave with no deal, DH will no longer be able to practice in Europe and will have to apply to each individual country to be "approved" to do business there. A lot of DHs business is in Western Europe. Our livelihood is on the line.

I'm curious to know how a no deal Brexit will directly affect you and/or your family.

I'm also fucked off with this Government for being so incompetent. I was actually a little bit excited at the Leave vote (lots of opportunity) but now I'm getting increasingly worried nothing is being put in place for a no deal, except Dominic Raab saying we'll stockpile groceries... Helpful.

Mexico isn't going to lower its tariffs against the whole world just to accommodate UK. Under WTO rules, No deal means Mexico (and lots of countries) will have to treat UK like any country there is no deal with, and that means tariffs must be imposed until a deal is hashed out.

Of course, with how USA keeps flouting WTO rules, maybe WTO will go by wayside & everyone will get to make up rules as they go along, always changing on a whim. Only Trump & Brexiters seem to think that's fine.

I think it's already had a bad affect on me mentally, I'm a lot more worried about the future than I used to be. Who knows after March next year? I could very easy lose my job as my employment is not secure and will be affected by Brexit.

In some respects I am better than most though. I'm educated, have a degree and skills. I own our house without a mortgage. We have been prepping a lot in the last 2 years and making things as future proof as possible. And, if things get really bad I have a friends and family who live abroad who could help in another country.

Despite being aware of the overall message of gloom from the media I can't see anything yet that will be of direct consequence to us.

Like you op I did think there could be opportunities in Brexit - after all it's an ill wind that blows no good. However May has been woeful.

I did hear Tim Martin of Weatherspoons talking positively yesterday about no deal and free trade (via a James Delingpole podcast if you want to go there.) Not that I visit Weatherspoons. So that is clutching at straws really.

Worried for my daughter and son-in-law who are both in financial services - there are already redundancies on the table for one of their firms. Food prices will go through the roof, so that will affect everyone, likewise energy, and there could be shortages in both. Worried for ourselves and health conditions, re possible medicine disruption and also the impact on the NHS due to ending of free movement. At the present moment, I can't see what we will gain apart from of course the facile leavers refrain 'we've got our country back'.

I will brave the Delingpole broadcast. (Wish my blood pressure luck)

Now don't come back and burst my small bubble of positivity!😉

I get "bubble diversity" points for listening to a Breitbart production, at least (sigh). I enjoy the iTunes picture too (complete with tin hat).

To summarise Whetherspoons man & save others from boosting Delingpole listening figures:

Saying "Brexshit" is nasty.
"Gee isn't Brexit divisive" !?
Tim Martin went into pub trade b/c he couldn't read fast or play rugby well
I think they might be saying TM IS a toff, but doesn't sound like one.
(long speel about his business career history)
JD thinks that running a huge pub&property empire means TM is very "in touch" with ThePeople
ThePeople would have supported Remain more if only Cameron had bashed the EU more
All the intelligent political minds went to Premiere of Brexit the Movie (no other intelligent political minds exist)
Problem with Remain is it's led by middle-aged male white Oxbridge guys
Problem with Remain is it's the viewpoint of (Liberal) Elite
(UK) Universities are not democratic
TM believes this conspiracy theory: Oxbridge supports Remain only b/c EU give Oxbridge lots of money. Ditto for large land owners.
I'm not a bigot, but... TM almost says
Brexit is right b/c it's democratic (they say again & again). (majoritarianism)
"Generation snowflake is brainwashed with all this europhile crap" (tbf, TM actually refutes every part of that statement)
CBI doesn't really represent British industry
Big companies like EU regulation b/c it gives big companies competitive advantage
Remainers have 'group think' and 'quasi-religious' belief about EU.
In 20-30-40 yrs the Remainers will see they were wrong.
Repeat several of above concepts to criticise people who believe that Climate Change is a problem
Remainers are insincere & sheeple, just virtue-signalling
"I've never been able to [learn] anything concrete about the benefits of EU membership"
TM very much wants NO DEAL so that govt eliminates all tariffs, believes that will be huge benefit to his business (due to cheaper food/booze imports).*
WTO rules = zero tariffs
Singapore, HK and Switzerland have zero import tariffs which is why their economies do great and have improved since that policy change; Australia & NZ are almost zero tariffs, Israel maybe too.
Intellectuals vs. "ordinary folk"
Intellectuals don't want to share power with ThePeople
"The Jacob" "The Donald" "Boris" these are good elite.
JD: you should use your pubs to promote Brexit. The Left bullies us who promote Brexit (business/product boycotts)
TM: I just published some crappy arguments in my pub magazine to look balanced
JD: but us Brexiters are such a besieged minority!...
No one believes now that Brexit = racism
ThePeople know it's not important if there are hold-ups at the ports after Brexit
Preparation for NoDeal Brexit is very unnecessary, there isn't anything to prepare for except lower costs for imported food and more sea-fishing

That's what the podcast was about, what they said. Make of it what you will.
*Sorry, I couldn't resist the majoritarianism link

**Won't prices plummet in response, so no change in profit margins or profits even go down?? Consumers benefit wrt out of pocket on food, but not business profit margins (I would have thought). Sorry. that's bubble bursting, isn't it?

lljkk, superb.

ps: I looked up tariffs for the countries listed, they aren't uniformly zero although they are generally lower than EU, esp. for non-alcohol & non-processed food. Booze is not zero import tariff anywhere outside of a trade deal, far as I can tell. I thought food was super expensive in Australia & Switzerland (?)

Aus
HK
NZ applies duties to only the few goods they make themselves
Singapore
Switzerland.

Lljkk: That's thorough and gives the gist.

It WAS very much two people on the same side agreeing though the interviewer was not exactly knowledgeable about the guys business.

(I think you are a bit harsh on Martin's career path.)

Hmm, we planned a holiday next Easter- but the kids break up a week after Brexit - so if it's no deal, that means no flights. Eventually it'll be sorted, but not in time for those school holidays.

I can afford to stock the freezer, I can afford house prices to fall and food prices to rise. We don't need regular medication and can afford private health insurance. Dh has skills in demand world wide and if push comes to shove, we could move. (Hes worked overseas before and has recently turned down jobs in thr middle east). We won't be the ones to suffer a hard Brexit, that doesn't mean I don't give a shit about those who will really be hit hard.

I posted too much already so didn't think his career path was highly relevant to Brexit... TM seemed to say that he personally wouldn't have as much influence on UK financial policies if UK adopted Euro and that was start of his EU-skepticism.

I should be job hunting instead, I suppose. Or take DSs out for a walk in the sun.

Good luck and enjoy the sunshine.

I think it will be difficult to maintain any sort of long term benefits system, which will massively impact my children who have disabilities. I also think without being a member of the EU there will not even be incentive for laws protecting disabled people, as we will be rewriting our own human hights laws. There are few protections in many countries outside the EU at present.
I am also worried my french partner will not automatically be able to stay. I dont really believe the placations, as pretty much everything theyve said so far has been a lie.

Fact check on Trading on WTO rules

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

Sorry to be a Debbie downer but a no deal brexit could result in the death of my DP due to a shortage in medical supplies and a lack of those pesky experts.

We have some savings and can afford to buy medication in the short term but I don't see how a private prescription would help if the supplies haven't made it in to the country.

We're so fucked.

Can I ask everyone here to contact their MP to encourage support for a people's vote/final day?

If a no deal were to go ahead and my DP did suffer (got worse or died) I would break. I'm only human...how am I suppose to be sane in that situation? My DP is worth something, he's as valuable as everyone else and I just wish this country knew that.

I've already had friends and colleagues leave because of Brexit. What I think people don't understand is that the strife only begins after Brexit and it will continue for years and years . Why of why do people want to pursue this massive action of self harm.
I think the reality of reduced food standards and workers rights i.e 'deregulation' is real. JRM and others are already talking about this as a positive aspect. Do we really want to compete with developing countries for cheap labour and poor working conditions. If you think you are just making ends meet now, then you are going to be in real trouble after Brexit.

@Hazardswan that's flat out shit for you both. I'm sorry you are having this stress.

Two disabled children. Between us we have 7 conditions or disabilities and waiting for assessment for one more and a referral for a ninth. Rely on meds to keep DD alive.

Ex relies on epilepsy meds.

I rely on carers' allowance. Any price rises and we are screwed.

Mum relies on meds. Increased costs will use up all her savings on care home.

Autistic children with restricted diets will be screwed.

Not looking forward to life post Brexit.

It's difficult to tell. I work freelance and some of my work is probably fine, but some may dry up if the economy crashes.

I fully expect not to be able to get certain food/drink and other products, and to maybe have waiting lists for certain products while you wait for them to get through customs.

And obviously the hopes I had for my son (who will be doing MFL A level) to have the same chances as I had to work and study in the EEA have gone unless he switches direction from humanities and becomes an expert in a STEM discipline that is a shortage profession somewhere. He might be able to study but of course will need to go through the visa process, though that might not be that much more bureaucracy than it was for me as it was quite bureaucratic. But summer jobs to improve his languages will be out of the question, whereas he could have just gone and tried his luck.

As for DH's job, not sure. I could see the work he does drying up, he's close to retirement age so might be happy to retire with a decent pay-off.

Oh and workers' rights will start to be dismantled on 1st November. If not, shortly after a new election has been safely won.

DH relies on two drugs solely manufactured in the EU to keep him alive which have a short shelf life and need constant refrigeration, so hold up at ports and supply chain issues would be fatal but hey ho at least I'll have a blue passport to help me grieve my husband of 30 years.

I'm directly affect (British in Europe). Many of the rights I enjoy now will disappear overnight in a no deal. My job could be on the line as I work for a subsidiary of a U.K. based company. Fortunately I also run a small business (medical translation) and I don't expect that to be affected (in fact Brexit is generating additional translation work, as U.K.-based pharma companies move their operations to the EU).

I'm more concerned about my DP who is seriously ill in hospital and may be unable to apply for a residents' card - without one it's possible that his healthcare cover could lapse overnight.

Also concerned about my elderly mum who lives alone in the U.K. - firstly about what might happen to food and fuel supplies in a no deal scenario, as she lives in a rural area at the end of supply chains, and secondly about what happens if she becomes ill and needs care, as she will lose the right to join me in Europe.

Small manufacturing business owner here. So far we have not replaced the two staff members who have left which ordinarily we would have done but work has dropped significantly over the last couple of months. If a couple of promised orders do not materialise in next two weeks we will have to start short time or make redundancies.

In March we heavily stockpiled materials but now our raw materials costs have increased depending on item from 7% & 22% so stockpiling this time is unlikely.

We don’t export but we are part of a supply chain that does reports from customers are that U.K manufacturers are finding themselves phased out of the supply chain.

All our parts and materials come from Europe and frictionless trade means we can pretty much run a just in time ordering system for expensive parts. Any disruption to this can bring our our customers production to a halt. We can’t order from anywhere else in the world or even U.K for certain items due to compatibility.

Many of our customers are in the food production industry so our increased costs and any disruption to supply will end up effecting many of you.

I can’t see how a ‘no deal’ Brexit will help any of the above.

Similar to Mistigri, I was a British resident of an EU country, but I had to come back to the UK recently. I want to go back agaun in the future, but it's only going to get harder. And for absolutely no benefit whatsoever! So I've recently taken to moaning on MN in the hope an expert in Spanish immigration law will magically pop up to advise me!