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Brexit

How will a No-Deal Brexit affect you?

104 replies

nodealbrexit · 31/07/2018 19:37

NC as I'm giving a lot of personal detail here...

I'm an immigrant to this country, I hold dual Commonwealth + EU citizenship so I don't really have a personal dog in the fight so to speak.

HOWEVER, a no-deal Brexit will impact our family. DH is a banker, he is an FCA "Approved Person" which means he can give financial advice/act as an investment manager/M&A/capital raising in the UK, and by association, the EU. My understanding is, if we leave with no deal, DH will no longer be able to practice in Europe and will have to apply to each individual country to be "approved" to do business there. A lot of DHs business is in Western Europe. Our livelihood is on the line.

I'm curious to know how a no deal Brexit will directly affect you and/or your family.

I'm also fucked off with this Government for being so incompetent. I was actually a little bit excited at the Leave vote (lots of opportunity) but now I'm getting increasingly worried nothing is being put in place for a no deal, except Dominic Raab saying we'll stockpile groceries... Helpful.

OP posts:
HugAndRoll · 31/07/2018 21:36

Myself and my two children all have medical conditions and neurodevelopmental conditions (between us there are ten plus investigations for another three, one of my youngest son's conditions means he is highly likely to have significant liver and/or lung problems when he gets a bit older and is already waiting to see a very highly specialised heptatologist). Between us we are on eight prescription medications a day. If no-deal Brexit does affect the NHS like many think it will, we will be screwed.

Food-wise, much of our things are imported and the cost of food will rise. One of my medical conditions is Coeliac Disease, therefore I already pay three times (no hyperbole) the price of an average person for basics like bread, cereal and pasta. If this goes up even more I won't be able to afford it.

I don't even want to think about the potential cuts to disability (and other) benefits if (read when) the economy becomes a shit-show and 'austerity' becomes the buzz-word again.

applesauce1 · 31/07/2018 21:41

I predict that the increased duty on importing goods from EU will be a cost passed on to the consumer.

applesauce1 · 31/07/2018 21:42

*EU countries

MrStarkIDontFeelSoGood · 31/07/2018 21:46

I really don't know yet how I'll be effected but I'm worried about certain things that are too specific too elaborate but one is a medication that is essential and largely if not entirely produced abroad.

nodealbrexit · 31/07/2018 22:24

Some sad stories on here. Really hoping the government gets its act together and provides us all with some clarity as to what the fuck is going on so we can prepare accordingly!

OP posts:
GoneWishing · 31/07/2018 23:43

I'm an EU (non-Brit) citizen, so obviously a worry if they were to start getting rid of us nasty immigrants. I do feel better now that the Settled Status has been added into UK law, though. If it were to be reversed, for us to remain, I'd have to start a lengthy and very expensive spousal visa application (DH is British), I guess, if we wanted to stay.

In reality we'd be looking into relocating in that situation. DH will also have an Irish passport, so we'd most likely be looking into moving to Ireland, as there's a good job market in his field in Dublin, and we've lived in Ireland before. Moving into my country of origin wouldn't be ideal, as DH doesn't speak the language, and claims it's impossible to learn.

I'm worried about DH's job if there's no deal, as it's a large multinational company that could easily decide to gradually wrap up its UK contracts. This wouldn't be an immediate thing (his current contract can't be ended on a whim and can't moved out of the UK by law), but something that could easily move a bit further down the line. If there are large scale job losses and less jobs in his field available (which sound likely if no deal), it again might force us to move.

My own job prospects wouldn't be altered greatly, I think, as the laws governing the biggest need for my profession aren't EU related but a UK specific regulation.

We aren't rich, but we would cope, even if our food shopping and bills were to increase. We would have to budget more carefully, though, and our quality of life would be less.

MozzieMagnet · 01/08/2018 00:04

I don't know. I wish I did.
I live in an EU country. We all have British passports but DH in theory can apply for an Irish one.
I ought to be applying for citizenship while I can still retain dual nationality but am scared this will work against me at some point.
Our 2 up 2 down house is rented out in the UK. We might be forced to give tenant notice and sell it (we make a loss each year but tax agreements meant renting it out was easier so we could come back eventually). CGT/house price falling I would expect but it will depress me knowing I have sold it and am stuck here/will die here if we don't make it back (am renting in EU, buying not an option).
Post-Brexit if we are not in UK and they start counting 5 years away and you forfeit your British citizenship rights and I will be panicking.
We want to come back because of various factors but not sure what we are coming back to.

SoloD · 01/08/2018 10:08

Our company does around 50% of it's trade with companies in the EU, given they are small companies the extra cost of customs clearance will add around 10% to the average order. We can't pass most of that cost to our EU customers.

So our company is looking to shift part of our warehousing and associated logistics to a EU country, and cutting up to three UK jobs.

I suspect a lot of companies will be in the same position.

bellinisurge · 01/08/2018 10:16

I've apparently been an Irish citizen all my life. Irish born parent. Dh also has an Irish born parent so he is an automatic Irish citizen too.
Nothing has bitten me on the arse.

twofingerstoEverything · 01/08/2018 10:26

You've just reminded me, Bellini, this mess has also reminded me that I'm also entitled to an Irish passport. Thanks, Dad!

Apileofballyhoo · 01/08/2018 13:53

Bellini get prepping! Same to you fingers.

Registering a foreign birth
Applications for Foreign Birth Registration can take six months to process from the date of receipt of a completed application with all the required supporting documentation.

You can register your birth on the Foreign Births Register if you are eligible to become an Irish citizen.

www.dfa.ie/passports-citizenship/citizenship/born-abroad/registering-a-foreign-birth/

LoveInTokyo · 01/08/2018 21:02

I am British and live in France.

I'm married to a French man so not too worried about being chucked out of the country, but I'm not eligible to apply for French citizenship and I'm not eligible for any other EU citizenship.

I don't know whether I will be able to work the day after Brexit day if we leave without a deal. (I assume this would be a temporary problem as my employers have said they will sponsor me for a visa if need be, but I don't know how long that process takes.) I don't know whether my health insurance will be valid the day after Brexit day. In the longer term, I don't know whether my professional qualifications obtained in the UK will continue to be recognised in France. I'm fairly sure my UK driving licence will not be valid in France after Brexit day, so I need to swap it for a French one. But then I don't know whether I will be able to use a French driving licence to drive my parents' cars as a named driver on their policies when I'm at home.

If there is no aviation agreement in place I expect there to be chaos on the Eurostar and it might be difficult or prohibitively expensive to get tickets. I have even seen information suggesting that UK passports may temporarily be invalid for travelling to EEA countries as we will fall out of the current agreement concerning recognition of passports. This may mean I am temporarily unable to travel between the UK and France. I hope none of my loved ones suddenly get sick or die around that time, as I might be stuck in France.

I have already converted most of my money into euros, but probably need to get on and exchange the rest now, just in case.

LoveInTokyo · 01/08/2018 21:04

Post-Brexit if we are not in UK and they start counting 5 years away and you forfeit your British citizenship rights and I will be panicking.

Mozzie, you don't forfeit your British citizenship rights by being out of the country. That's indefinite leave to remain, which is completely different.

Clairetree1 · 03/08/2018 00:16

Sky news article on local council preparations for shortages, transport restrictions and unrest.

news.sky.com/story/councils-preparing-for-social-unrest-amid-brexit-uncertainty-11455918

the only positive prediction any single council has is the suggestion that the shortages might not be as bad as the worst case scenario, if enough of the UK population emigrate before the BREXIT

By Faisal Islam, political editor

As the government further delays publication of 'no deal' Brexit preparedness reports, dozens of councils have taken the initiative to produce their own analyses, Sky News can reveal

Local authorities across the UK have expressed serious concerns about the delivery of public services in dozens of Brexit impact studies obtained by Sky News as part of its Brexit Forensics investigation.

Nearly 30 councils have responded to a freedom of information request for their Brexit plans, with some expressing mounting incredulity and exasperation at having to plan to deliver local public services against a backdrop of highly uncertain Brexit negotiations with Europe and within government.

Almost 30 councils responded to Sky News' freedom of information request
They say they are having to work out the implications for social care, border controls, the availability of food and medicines and even the fear of "social unrest"

Yesterday, Sky News revealed that Dover District Council and Kent County Council have both independently suggested that a plan for a 13-mile Brexit lorry park on the southbound M20 motorway could be needed for four years or more.

There are similar concerns from councils and port authorities across the country, including Anglesey, home to Holyhead port.

Pembrokeshire County Council, meanwhile, has released to Sky News its internal Brexit risk register detailing 19 ways it thinks Brexit will have an impact.

All but one of them is listed as negative, with seven coded red - "likely to have a high impact" - including "the imposition of border controls" and the "ready availability of vital supplies - foodstuff and medicines".

There is one "positive" listed: that people might move away so there will be less demand on council services.

The Shetland Islands' council released a document expressing concerns about a fall in agricultural land prices after Brexit, and a chart showing the impact different trading arrangements could have on types of farm across the Highlands and islands.

The Shetland document claims that under a "no deal", 86% of sheep farms are expected to be loss-making, compared to half under current arrangements.

The increase in losses arises out of the imposition of tariffs on lamb exports to Europe.

Bristol council warns of a "top-line threat" of "social unrest or disillusionment during/ after negotiations as neither Leave nor Remain voters feel their concerns are being met".

East Sussex council was one of a number expressing concerns about the impact on its provision of social care after Brexit.

The county council said in its report: "There has already been a fall in the number of EU nationals taking jobs in the care sector and the county council has great concerns that the end of freedom of movement will put further pressure on the sector that is already stretched and struggling to deliver the level of care required for our ageing elderly population

Almost all councils expressed significant concerns about how the treasury will replace crucial EU structural and regional funds - particularly now the PM has promised any money that might materialise after Brexit to the NHS.

But another common feature in the reports is exasperation that councils just do not know what to plan for as they wait for the government to agree a deal.

DuggeeHugg · 03/08/2018 00:22

I don’t understand the connection between avocados and Christmas. Is that a thing now?

I have proper anxiety about Brexit. I’m genuinely worried I won’t be able to feed the kids and we’ll lose our house. We are already skint.

ragged · 03/08/2018 03:13

I guess back in 60s-70s there was much more stockpiling of goods, UK didn't have a Just-In-Time services & goods sector. Need lots work to create huge infrastructure to return to the "Always something in stock" situation.

Motheroffourdragons · 03/08/2018 08:53

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This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

LoveInTokyo · 03/08/2018 09:53

Motheroffourdragons Have you looked into swapping your driving licence? I'm going to swap mine for a French one.

SoloD · 03/08/2018 09:56

One interesting aspect to consider is with the fall off in international trade, reduction in investment and job losses will the the UK go into recession?

LoveInTokyo · 03/08/2018 09:59

I would have thought it is a virtual certainty, Solo.

Motheroffourdragons · 03/08/2018 10:01

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

rogueantimatter · 03/08/2018 10:03

ragged Presumably the current Just in Time method of delivery and storage is used because it's more efficient/cheaper/saves storage space. I wasn't sure from your post if you think returning to more use of storage would have some benefits?

Admittedly I am feeling more than usually thick this morning 😁

ScrumpyCrack · 03/08/2018 10:06

Fangirl reminds me of an interview I saw on Sky News with an elderly Brexiteer Yorkshire lady:

Sky: how will the rise interest rates and a potential no-deal Brexit affect you?
Lady: dunno, ducky!
Sky: what about your home?
Lady: it’s not mine.
Sky: what about your savings?
Lady: don’t have any.
Sky: what about your retirement and care?
Lady: oh I’ll be dead before I worry about any of that, duck. Bye now!

Grin

God I wish I had Irish ancestors Sad

SoloD · 03/08/2018 10:29

Ignorance is bliss

LoveInTokyo · 03/08/2018 10:38

...

How will a No-Deal Brexit affect you?