Anyone else think voting on final deal terrible idea?

[Echobelly]

I am a Remainer and was in the process of signing a 'Let the people vote on the final deal' thing, when I realised, actually it really isn't a good idea.

The People, and I include myself in that, have shown that we really don't understand this stuff, so we're not likely to be any better at getting what the Deal is (though I'm pretty sure it'll be dreadful).

I think the campaigning around such a vote would be appalling, really vicious and divisive, and would end in a close result either way (and by no means a vote to remain). The Leave side would campaign as 'SAVE DEMOCRACY FROM THE ELITE!!!' resulting in lots of accusations, a rise in sly antisemitism ('Soros put them up to this!') and the Remain side would be fearmongering furiously. There'd be mass manipulation and dodginess on social media and the societal fallout would be awful even if the outcome were Remain. Perhaps especially if that were so - there'd be a big resurgence in the Far Right wanting to reclaim 'Their England' (or should I say 'There England) from the people who snatched away Britain's sovereignty (as they'd see it).

The only way I can think around it being a disaster is for there to be a firm Remain alternative that requires there to be a premium of government development money spent on the most deprived areas of the UK in the event of not leaving the EU so that all those places that voted Leave get something in return.

I understand your reasoning, the problem is that we have a government and opposition who are deeply divided over what Brexit should look like.

The government is being held to ransom by the arch brexiteers who actively are seeking a hard Brexit even through Opinion polls tell us that is not what people want. May is only being allowed to make offers which everyone knows the EU will reject.

Either we need a new general election or a new referendum.

It's at an impasse and another referendum would be one way of sorting it out. Goodness knows what would be on it though.

If it happens it happens. I'm not especially expecting one, but the balance of probabilities in favour of one happening is much much greater than it was a year ago. (I think it was a tipping point when Farage said, earlier this year, he thought it would be a good idea.)

I never want the UK to have another referendum on anything.

I honestly don't know what the answer is. MPs being allowed a genuinely free vote? Not being whipped but allowed to vote for what is best for our country?

I can definitely see where you are coming from. But all options are shit at the moment.

I can’t see May’s Brexit plan getting agreed in Brussels. So we will get either

• crash out = possible food shortages, loads of job losses. So we get civil unrest.

• BINO (Brexit in name only) = significant proportion of leave voters feeling cheated. So we could get civil unrest.

• we remain = very significant proportion of leave voters feeling cheated. So we get civil unrest.

I actually think the best thing that could possibly happen would be another referendum. And an overwhelming swing to Remain (60 : 40). But what if the country is as divided as it was in 2016?

Well, like I said I think there needs to be an actual plan for not doing Brexit if it goes to a vote either of the public or MPs, so a vote against taking the deal is not just 'Oh, we just won't leave the EU then, as you were'.

There needs to be a positive alternative that promises to fund the actual solutions to the problems of Wigan and Pontypridd and Somerset and Stockport etc, which will only be worsened by Brexit. That way you could portray not leaving as a resurgence for Britain and a new deal for neglected parts of the country, not just 'We don't care about your opinions, peasants outside London'

I agree with you Echobelly. I didn’t think it right to give us the say the first time and my opinion hasn’t changed. I signed the petition though

But I agree @ConstantlyCold - all options currently are shit and all ways, to me, point to reinforcement of the Far Right, either from winning or losing. Depressing.

Completely agree that all options are utterly shit and the country remains as divided now as it ever was. The problem is that no one is making any concessions and I don't know anyone who has changed their mind since 2016 - whether they voted leave or remain. So another referendum is likely to produce another roughly 50:50 split, half wanting hard Brexit and the other wanting no Brexit at all. Soft Brexit (the worst of both worlds), will satisfy no one, the other two options will have half the country up in arms.

The other argument against a second referendum is that if we have a vote on the outcome of the negotiations and whether to accept/reject the proposal, it gives the EU negotiators further impetus to dick us around, because they know if they offer a horrible deal it will just be rejected. But where will that leave the country? In a state ripe for serious riots IMO. Remember the London Riots? They were just seven short years ago ...

I agree, OP, another referendum is not the best idea.

However I’m signing the second referendum and anti-Brexit petitions as one of the few means I have to make a noise.

I suspect a referendum on the final deal is a terrible idea, since rejection of the deal will result in no deal. This is the government's view, and (most unfortunately) I haven't seen it refuted anywhere.

It's all academic though, as the government appears to have no intention of achieving a deal.

Every political rerun of a vote has resulted in the public reacting by making the win margin even larger.
Are you prepared for this, bearing in mind you didn't get the result you wanted first time.

Every political rerun of a vote has resulted in the public reacting by making the win margin even larger.

Nope.

Every political rerun of a vote has resulted in the public reacting by making the win margin even larger

Even if that were true (which it isn’t). I would actually feel better. I’d still be gutted - but at least this time I would know people had a better idea of the implications of a leave vote.

Here's the problem: I vote no (or whatever) because the whole thing is a crock of shit and we should stay in the EU.
X votes no (or whatever but the same as me) because they want to leave but think the deal isn't robust enough.
No (or whatever) wins and we ..... what?

It depends on if the options are just:

• take the deal on the table

-don’t take the deal and crash out Or if they include the option of stopping us leaving altogether. I think considering all the things that have come to light since the vote a new vote giving the option of staying in the EU wouldn’t be too bad an idea at all

No (or whatever) wins and we ..... what?

Crash out without a deal, very likely. The electorate could "force the PM back to the negotiating table" if that were mandated by the victory of "No to this particular deal", but the British electorate couldn't force the EU to reopen negotiations. The EU side might well take the view that "We agreed a deal, you reneged, now take the original deal or leave with no deal." Or maybe the gamble would pay off, but it would still have been an irresponsible gamble.

I wish we Remainers could focus on damage limitation, such as staying in Efta. I know the government has, outrageously, passed an amendment designed to make that illegal, but if half the population united behind the demand for a "Norway Plus" style deal, it would at least be harder for the PM to resist. A referendum on joining Efta would be worth having, if it could be done soon. Sadly the government has no incentive to call such a referendum, so the only damage limitation possible is of the "every man for himself" variety.

Another trouble with further votes on this is the change in rhetoric since Brexit and Trump, with both Trump, and, I'm afraid, many Remainers, pushing the line that there has been 'cheating' etc.

Yes, I think the Leave campaign did some dodgy things but ultimately no one can prove the vote would have gone another way if not for that, and we need to drop this idea that everyone except us is swayed by this or that. I saw someone claiming that the spike it support for leave just before the vote 'proves' Leave were dodgy, but why might it not just be the vote approaching and more people making up their minds to leave?

I think truly hard, interventionalist vote rigging is very hard in our country, and one can't really prove whether a campaign was fair or not - both sides will always exaggerate things and promise what they can't deliver. We need to be better than Trump and co and all those people who immediate resort to crying 'Cheating!' when things don't go their way.

I think that if voting for the final deal allows for the possibility of soft Brexit or remain, it’s worth a try.

It can not possibly be a worse idea than a no deal Brexit.

Your also forgetting that the way the EU has reacted has made a lot of no voters think what the hell are we involved in.
Also can you see the headlines...
We voted to leave. Did it happen, no we get told go back and vote again, till you vote the way we told you too.....

How on earth has the EU reacted? It's defending its obligations to the 27 other countries. How is that bad?

A voluntary club you can't leave...

You do know how this all appears to the man in the street...

Junker looks like a bully, and mum's net is not the real world your being mislead into thinking it will be a massive Remain vote win, it won't this time it will be a much bigger margin to leave.

@mummmy2017 . I'm a "man on the street" .

You do realise that the EU is on the other side of these negotiations, don’t you?

And that our job is to try and get the best outcome for the UK, whereas their job is to try and get the best outcome for the other 27 member states, yes?

And that those interests are not necessarily aligned?

Take the Irish border issue. Are you really expecting the EU to take our side on that one rather than Ireland’s, when they still have a responsibility towards Ireland but we are going our own way?

I don’t really understand what anyone thinks the EU should be doing for us in this situation.

this time it will be a much bigger margin to leave

Where are all these extra leave voters going to come from? The people who wanted to vote leave already did. (And some of them have since changed their minds, or died.)

No one who thought Brexit was a bad idea when it was all about £350m a week for the NHS and everyone getting their own unicorn is going to think it’s a good idea now it’s all about stockpiling food and medicine and putting up a wall in Ireland.

We've gone from £350million a week for the NHS to the PM hoping it will comfort people to know the government will do their best to ensure there is enough food for all in the event of no deal Brexit. Glorious. Makes you so bloody proud.