Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Alan White @aljwhite
After the @BuzzFeedUK scoop that Bannon has been in touch with Boris Johnson, it’s now been revealed he’s talking to Gove and Rees-Mogg too

www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-politics-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-targets-britain-in-anti-eu-campaign-idUSKBN1KH260
Ex-Trump strategist Bannon targets Britain in anti-EU campaign

We are owned by Bannon.

oliver king @oliverjamesking
No insulin is made in the UK. It can't be by March. No deal Brexit threatens supply according to Medicines Regulator Sir Michael Rawlings. What are the government going to do to prevent type-1 diabetics dying ?

With apologies to diabetic sufferers (you might wanna skip this post) and I hope this is hyperbole but:

I just googled - there are estimated to be 4 million people in the UK currently suffering from diabetes. If the brexiteers cause anything to happen whereby diabetics cannot access their insulin - then that is a lot of deaths on their hands - in a very short space of time.

And diabetes will be just the tip of the iceberg for conditions that need constant medication for those with it to live.

Add in a cancer treatments being unattainable, formula milk being an 'occasional luxury', malnutritution and an NHS unable to cope if there is a bad flu outbreak - and all those brexiteer promises of 'it won't be as bad as the black death' are starting to look overly optimistic.

I think the black death killed something like 1 in 10 of the population the first time it broke out. Diabetes effects 1 in 16 of the population, for starters, and is just one condition that is currently being talked about.

No deal brexit could decimate the population and then some. Shit.

I don't understand why Bannon gets a visa to come in. If he's here to promote extreme right wing views and cause disruption then surely he shouldn't be allowed in.

I don't think everyone who has diabetes is on insulin. I used to work as admin in a hospital and people with type two diabetes are quite often on tablets like metformin. But it's still very worrying. Even short term shortages of insulin could lead not just to immediate death but to further conditions like kidney failure or blindness or amputations.

I'm hoping that asthma meds will be stockpiled as they tend to have long dates on them. 1 in 11 people in the UK has asthma. But my one inhaler has to be stored in the fridge. I will be very upset if I can't get that anymore as my asthma is the best it's been for years since I was prescribed it. It wouldn't be life threatening but it would affect my day to day life.

There are probably meds that aren't necessarily classed as life saving, but the absence of which could cause some deaths. Like mental health meds, without which people may become suicidal or psychotic. My DS has antidepressants from Ireland and is on and off suicidal. I don't think he would take his life without them, but I do know he is better on them and yet still feels suicidal on and off, so it's always a possibility.

When you start thinking about it it's more than a dereliction of duty by the government. I wonder if it could be classed as corporate manslaughter.

Next time JRM bangs on about leaving without a deal someone should ask him if he will take personal responsibility for anyone who dies as a result of lack of medication.

Next time JRM bangs on about leaving without a deal someone should ask him if he will take personal responsibility for anyone who dies as a result of lack of medication.

When you look at the threat not to lifestyle but to life itself that brexit poses for everyday citizens, it is very hard to see how those who brought it about will not end up in front of treason trials, should the shit hit the fan.

Working towards an outcome, as an elected politician, whereby citizens you are supposed to represent are in danger of dying needlessly - through lack of medication, of which there is no shortage worldwide - for no reason other than personal greed ideology, must be the very definition of treason.

Here's the full interview with Sir Michael about insulin and other potential medicine shortages

www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/news/millions-of-patients-could-be-affected-by-no-deal-brexit-medicines-shortages-says-mhra-chief/20205240.article?firstPass=false

(Not behind a paywall)

Also in the Pharmaceutical Journal, the good news that a forum has been established to liaise with Government about the imapct of Brexit on pharmacies (though one has to ask why it has taken two years to do so....)

You know, for ten years I have held it in. He didn't die. We got to the hospital in time. He was in intensive care for a fortnight. "He has diabetes" they said. Relief! They can treat that. "He's not out of the woods yet. We have to rehydrate him and there is a chance of brain damage."

But he was ok. He survived. We learned. I learned too much and scared myself witless about hypos and hypers, long term complications, blindness, amputations, reduction in life-expectancy, dead-in-bed syndrome.

I had to hold down a screaming toddler 6 times a day to inject him. I had to weigh out everything he ate, calculate the carbohydrate content of everything he ate or drank, work out the required insulin dose every time, even when he was tired or hungry and all he wanted to do was sit down and eat like his siblings, not have to check his blood and do maths every time.

I have checked him every night to make sure he is safe. I am always fearful every morning going into his bedroom - did he make it through the night?

But we have the NHS. We have insulin. We have a fantastic team (of EU doctors and nurses!) looking after him. He has good odds. He lives as normal a life as possible with a life-threatening illness.

And now Brexit.

I have held it in for ten years. But not tonight.

Sorry - wrong thread!

Inigo sadly, that post makes perfect sense on this thread.

Is May going to do something that will kill her?

I mean shes the PM and all that, but the very point that she'd have to have insulin stockpiled for her own use is pretty crazy.

Or is that the plan for the ERG?! Can't get rid of her anyway.

Meanwhile Labour is doing is best to look like its trying to drive jewish MPs out of the party.

After the Margaret Hodge incident which has seen her lawyer up, we have this

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/28/labour-antisemitism-code-ian-austin-mp-faces-suspension?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Second MP investigated in row over Labour's antisemitism code
Ian Austin, adopted child of Jewish refugees, warned over ‘abusive conduct’ after expressing anger about party’s new code

Yes, that did make me laugh briefly, that this was one way the ERG was going to avoid a leadership contest!

The Times has a front page article about how the army is on standby for brexit emergency.

Helicopters and army trucks would be used to ferry supplies to vulnerable people outside the south east who were struggling to obtain the medicines they needed

Actual quote.

Errr how big is our army again?

If you are struggling to get supplies of medicine surely that means by definition you have had a period of time when you have not been able to get it?

Another quote

In today's business section, it is revealed that supermarkets are warning suppliers to stockpile supplies such as tea and coffee

I find this ever so surreal that tea and coffee appear to be priority. We might starve but at least we could have a brew.

Apparently we are going to order in drugs from outside the EU instead. No thought as to whether this is possible or what the cost will be. I guess the US will be rubbing their hands in glee.

Apparently Brexiteers will say this is all scaremongering. Yet in the next paragraph it says that Steve Baker threatened to resign in March because the government refused to publish no deal plans. Go figure.

The MoD have said no formal request made yet, just a dusting off of an old civil contingency plan.

Another quote:
Plans to publish reports throughout the summer have been ditched because of fears they would alarm the public. They will be released on the same day in late August.

We don't want a string of scary headlines about no deal, so we are gonna dump all the docs when everyones on holiday and hope no one notices, even though the Times have been running stories like this for the last week anyway, and they sure as hell aren't going to stop.

Don't worry about your meds, the army will bring horrendously expensive American substitutes you might have side effects from, unlike your regular supply. Think yourself lucky at this, as your mate down the road struggling to get his supply, had a hypo whilst waiting for the army to try and fail to impersonate Santa and deliver to millions in one night. And you'll have a brew to stave off the rioters since the army won't be able to control that if they are tied up channelling the spirit of Amazon Delivery Drivers.

This is bonkers! Even the article talking about it is bonkers.

It is completely insane.

I know JC is a eurosceptic of old, but does anybody wonder why Labour aren't saying enough is enough, especially after that poll? Is it a fear of being anti democratic? Why is that not a problem for the Lib Dems, and also why do the Lib Dems not count as a centrist pro Remain party? Why does a centre pro Remain party have to be a new one?

Surely with the Russian interference and the law breaking regarding funding by the Leave campaign, there is more than enough reason to say that the vote wasn't all that democratic on the first place.

Being Irish I have a different attitude to referenda anyway I suppose. We had one to put the right to life of the unborn into the constitution, and had one to take it out again. I know there were decades in between the abortion ones but the other two that changed were the ones for Nice and Lisbon treaties, we said no, received guarantees (including the right not to have abortion, ironically), set up referendum commission, had another ones, said yes. Denmark did the same for one of the treaties.

People change their minds. It would be the anathema of democracy to not hold elections after a fixed term - and governments have been known to be brought down before reaching the end of the term - but your referendum results are forever?

Are people waiting until the chaos hits to propose a second referendum?

I think there’s a big change in mood since the stockpiling advice. Some quite frightened people out there. The People’s Vote march in October might be very big...
Really just waffling on here, woken up by unaccustomed cool draughts in the house and wind outside! I suppose I’m guaranteeing not being able to get back to sleep by looking at a screen.

That stockpiling thread I know AIBU can be a bunfight but that thread is more like OK Corral!

The belligerent callousness and the raw anger of the Leavers on there (and bizarrely prolific ex-Remainers ) pretty much confirmed my feelings about which “side” I would be ashamed to be on though.

I mean, shoot me for saying it, but I just don’t believe as Leavers apparently do that refusing to emotionlessly parrot “It will be FINE” is a moral failing.

I think there’s a big change in mood since the stockpiling advice.

Hello Born. I so so hope you are right.* If there's a swing why isn't it bigger and quicker. Weeks ago in May ,Mark Carney revealed our folly has already lowered growth by 2% and cost GDP £40,000,000,000. but still there's no huge visible rapid swing to seeing the benefits of membership.
*
I am worried that quite a few share the attitude of my ( in law ) family members. I've seen it on other threads here too- the view is that a bit of pulling your belt in or 'getting a few bits extra in' is a small price to pay for 'having our independence '.

It's just beyond absurd.

If anything signifies our politicians' complete autonomy this has been evidenced by the last two years.Our ability to get into this quagmire (and then make it worse) shows the government has complete domestic control, and always did.

Being a leading country in one of the most powerful trading blocs in the world enhanced our strength and independence. None of the member states ever shared control over health, education, fiscal policy, defence, social care, crime, property laws, local government, etc.

Sharing limited standards about food and goods was pragmatic delegation.

I know I'm stating the obvious, but by weakening ourselves in the way we have, we are faced with shortages and stockpiling. This will be followed by far greater dependence on any new trading partners.

If leaving the EU was a positive Britain would already be booming and it is not.

Sorry bold fail.

One thing that is clear is how incredibly ANGRY the Leavers are (and they were a pretty angry lot in the first place). It comes through in every post I see. Even the supposedly cheerful posts - which, it seems, are always based around delight that others are unhappy, perhaps because really they know there is nothing left to be happy about except that other people are sad.

I'm still angry too though. In fact not angry, more hugely frustrated and despairing.

Exasperated, incredulous at the lack of logic in the Leave position. It's like there's a logic circuit fault in millions. This ranges from politicians to my FIL who see relinquishing membership of the EU as a panacea for entirely unrelated issues.

Helicopters and army trucks would be used to ferry supplies to vulnerable people outside the south east who were struggling to obtain the medicines they needed

Why does the South East not need the army to deliver supplies?

I think born is right about the tide turning. But it’s so alarming that there are so many determined that Brexit must happen regardless of the pain it delivers to millions.

I think there will be civil unrest after Brexit. Either through a crash out no deal nightmare. Or someone will call the whole thing off and the more enthusiastic Brexiters will riot.
Just not sure how many Brexiters are keyboard warriors and how many are the rioting kind. Hopefully most of them are all talk and no action.

I've frequently raised the comparison with Suez:
jingoism over-riding common sense, leading to a national humiliation and a reassessment of Britain's position in the world.

Note: Suez was pure nationalism / imperialism, not bitter "left behinds" or JAMs:

social mobility was rocketing in 1956, the NHS and the welfare state were in full swing
We can overstate economic causes of nationalism, although they ramp up the nastier xenophobia and scapegoating.

R North has a good piece today, "Brexit: split down the middle"

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86946

adding further Suez similarities I hadn't known, e.g.

one tabloid newspaper trumpeted across its front page "Eden gets tough! Let the cry-babies howl! It's GREAT Britain again!"

and there were petrol shortages & long queues (quite likely with no-deal)

I hadn't realised that the country was so bitterly split down the middle during Suez too - but then the jingoistic media and public had social constraints on expressing anger and hostility to opponents, that have gone now.

One point to note:
The govt and public in 1956 assumed the US would back Britain, but got a shock when instead POTUS turned the screws on and took advantage of Suez to cut back British power in the world.

Trump will only help if he gets something - a lot in return
We need to remember that trade deals typically take 7-12 years to negotiate before signing
Even if the UK could cope that long without, Trump won't be around and anyway, Congress has to approve trade deals

I think the change is taking a long time because it’s only when people realise that their own lives may be directly and adversely affected that they sit up and take notice.
The fall in the £ and slowly rising prices are not enough. People can quite correctly say that there are some benefits associated with a weaker £ and that prices are affected by a range of events. Many people ignore warnings and forecasts they don’t like because that’s what people do. They hope for the best.
Many if not most people can’t or won’t engage with current affairs or politics because they perceive it as too difficult or “boring” (how often do we hear that word from Leavers?)
However real actual warnings from Government about stockpiling food and medicines hit a nerve with many, especially (unfortunately) the JAMs and people with health issues who may always be anxious about where the next rent payment is coming from or if they have enough medication to last the month. I feel very sorry for them - there is a current thread started by a young mother in tears about this.
Once all these people begin to get it, yes I think the tide will turn - especially if they can be engaged sufficiently to actually do something, like write to or contact their MP.

A falling pound also raises the price of raw materials, food and other imports
UK suppliers have been helped by some larger firms buying stockpiles of components before Brexit
However, that will be temporary.

The UK economy has had deep structural problems for many decades, worse than those of comparable Western countries.
So is not in a good state to take shocks.

btw, in the 1950s (when I was born), exchange rate was nearly DM 12 to 1GBP
During my first contract in German 1987-1990, 1 GBP was below DM 3 - so less than 1/4 of its previous German value ! - and had fallen to about DM2.70 by the time I finished.