Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

Prettybird that is indeed an angry post. I thought her reference to the stiff upper lip versus continental attitude. What is a long and proud tradition of openly voicing discontent over there (often at the expense of the rest of the population has to be said; see countless strikes in France) is just perceived as whinging over here. However what works wonders in the face of an external enemy normalises a clear lack of accountability and lets fatalism set in. Ironic when the whole point is to take back control.

pretty Do you think Scotland might be better able than England to feed itself after a no-deal ?

• much smaller population than England, quite a large land area for farming / agriculture ...

On Brexit, What the EU Tells You 10 Times Is True

www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-27/eu-brexit-negotiations-are-not-all-a-bluff

Prime Minister Theresa May should finally stop ignoring her negotiating partners’ red lines.

BigChoc - I do.

We already produce more meat and fish/seafood than we need. We're short on fruit and veg - but we can always put in more poly tunnels (provided we can get the pickers lots of soft fruit has rotted this summer despite bumper crops because of a shortage of fruit pickers )

If Iceland can be self-sufficient for its food , then so can Scotland

Global warning will help

Sarah Wollaston on QT just now, doing a really good job. As others have noted - why oh why is she still a Tory?

I've been thinking more and more about the revelations that are coming out about targeting in the run up to the Referendum. And Steve Bannon's plans for a Far Right, anti-Eu party, and that yougov poll suggesting 30% of the UK would vote for a Far Right, anti-Islamic party.

We have a huge problem with racism, don't we?

And, I know we can all say this problem has always been there but ... something is different, isn't it? It's been radicalised, weaponised, and ... what strategies do we have to deal with it?

Does anyone have that poll again ?
I thought it was 30% of Leavers, not the entire voting pop

• if it is the latter, then we are in terrible danger, with the far right money and organisation. Any age breakdowns, too ?

Initial search finds this: www.theweek.co.uk/95223/amid-brexit-chaos-voters-turn-to-far-right

there's a times article, which probably links to the actual poll - but it's pay-walled, so I can't get it. I'm going to carry on looking.

For all that the btl comments in The Sun might be a depressing read - it;s good that The Sun actually made that report. Any pro brexit rag writing about the downsides of brexit is progress. Sure, it will take time for the individual frothers to accept that it isn't project fear infecting the tabloids - it is simply project reality coming home to roost. But that realisation will only come from story after story in their own media.
(obviously some will never accept it - but that is the religious aspect of brexit for you)

iceland relies on 'free' geothermal to heat greenhouses etc - no comparison.

And, yes, I think it means we're in terrible trouble, too.

That article is a bit confusing. It starts by saying 'those that oppose May's Chequers plan' would support a hard right party - which assuming they aren't including the remainers in that (because they oppose it for very different reasons - or, they don't really oppose it - they just know it can't happen.) would suggest it is a proportion of leavers - and even then only a proportion of the ERG supporting wingnuts (who were the ones to oppose the chequers deal).

But then later it just states 38% as a complete figure. Suggesting it is of the whole electorate. But - Labour's vote share at the last election was only 40% - and that had increased from 2015... so 38% does seem unlikely as a whole. Unless it was a very self selecting survey.

Or possibly it is 38% as a whole - and they are all leavers - which means 73% of leavers support the Hard Right. If this is the case - they need to stop complaining when we call them racist.

The Times article (the poll was commisioned by the Sunday times) seems to suggest it is a group as a whole - across all politcal parties and Leave/Remain voters.

Obviously, without the original poll, it is impossible to tell anything about the cohort.

Which is irritating. without information about the cohort, it's extremely difficult to extract actual information.

I can't find the actual survey - I'm guessing it's privately held by the Sunday Times ...

Hmm. we know that funny things can happen with polls.

frankiestein - I know they do (in my old job I did a lot of work with them about how to exploit their access to that energy). I've seen their bananas!

But Scotland also has "free" renewable energy from hydro and wind power. Plus a more hospitable climate and a greater area suitable for cultivation.

Iceland put a lot of investment into making themselves self-sufficient - it didn't happen by accident.

And Scotland has both oil and gas, neither of which Iceland has yet discovered

thatcatfromjapan - I thought that it was a requirement to release the data sets? Not sure how quickly though - but I would've thought by now

Here's some analysis of that poll

twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1021360193677025280

And another interesting thread.

The Wrong Kennedy
‏*@wrong*_kennedy

We all remember the claim on the bus about the £350m a week, for the NHS....but there was another big claim by Vote Leave during the EU campaign that we all seem to have forgotten about...

twitter.com/wrong_kennedy/status/1023142349243867137

Fantastic work SedishEdith.

Bloody hell, how did they get away with it?

And ... I am actually (even more) worried about the UK's politics.

I notice there’s no mention that VAT on domestic heating fuel is only 5%. I’m sure that’s deliberate. Most people automatically assume it’s the standard rate. And our standard rate of 20% is higher than the EU minimum standard rate of 15% - whose fault is that?
I’m fairly certain that it was a Conservative government that introduced VAT on domestic fuel and that subsequently lowered by a Labour government.

From that tweet swedish posted - it's mainly Tory voters who would likely vote for a far right anti-Muslim party:

24% would be 'very' or 'fairly likely' to vote for a far right, anti-Islam / immigration party.

That is 38% of Tory voters
and 13% of Labour voters

So, May does know her voters - explains her fanaticism on FOM
(she hasn't tried explaining that FOM is only for EU citizens and they can be deported if they are not self-supporting within 6 months)

Thanks for finding that tweet, swedish

The same poll shows:

33% would be 'very' or 'fairly' likely to vote for a new centrist party committed to opposing Brexit.
51% of Labour voters!

So Corbyn - unlike May - doesn't have the excuse that he's only doing what his voters want

No wonder Labour are not hammering the worst post-WW2 govt we've had in the polls

• Corbyn /Labour have alienated most of their voters and probably repelled those centrist voters who would normally be switching to them in droves. Anti-semitism and self-ID would be adding to this

I know we've covered this before but 26.6% voted UKIP in the last Euro elections. So while that survey is depressing at face value, the vote share has hardly changed.

Remember, Le Pen got 34% of the vote. Whilst inequality grows/continues, there will always be fertile ground for the far right

www.ft.com/content/62d782d6-31a7-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

Re Waitrose shortages, today's delivery had 5 subs / not available Me we had anything like that number before, and the costs have gone up too

Re Scotland, interesting development I though is that the BBC has caused 2 leading pro-independence YouTube channels to be taken down for copyright infringement. None of the big pro-union ones have been taken down...