Westministenders: High Drama at The Ok Coral

[RedToothBrush]

3:00 p.m. Wednesday, October 26, 1881, Tombstone, Arizona.

After months of death threats from the Cowboy Billys, their long simmering feud with the law thing came to a head. The Earp Brothers and Doc Holliday faced the criminals down in a shootout.

Tomorrow's 'sleepover' is starting to feel like the Gunfight at the OK Coral.

The outcome of the real story was three of the outlaws were killed. Another two claimed they were unarmed and ran from the fight. Virgil, Morgan, and Doc Holliday were wounded, but Wyatt Earp was unharmed.

How many Brexiteers can we expect to roll over and resign from the Cabinet and how many will surrender to May and the Pro-Business lobby? ONly time will tell.

Please place your bets for the number of resignations and the number of 'I support the PM' comments.

But don't get too excited. The showdown wasn't the end of the matter.

One of the outlaws who legged it, filed murder charges against the Earps and Doc Holliday. It took them some time for them to be acquitted.

Then Virgil Earp was ambushed and disabled in the arm later that year in December and Morgan Earp was assassinated in March 1882. Wyatt Earp, then thinking he had no other option, went on a personal vendetta to kill the outlaws and then fled the state.

Given the Tory Cabinet and the perchant for stabbing each other in the back and settling personal scores, a repeat of a wild west gun fight, really doesn't sound too wildly off the cards now does it?

Buckle up. Its time to play at Chequers.

Jim Pickard @ pickardje
Max Hastings, former boss of Boris, writes that it is a “common mistake to suppose Johnson a nice man”

“Blackadder in a blond wig” is going to stick

how can you say the cabinet is representative of the people now its heavily loaded with remain voting mps

Now they realise how it feels to be a woman.

How dumb are these guys ?

was the takeaway phrase from a chat I had with my (US based) DB last night. Which apparently was his colleagues take on The Story So Far, when briefed. (DB tends to have the BBC news page on, so yesterdays headlines provoked a few queries).

The takeaway phrase came when DB tried to explain how the Brexiteers kept having a go at the Remainers. His colleagues comment was "if you want to win people over, you start with the ones closest to your views and move out".

Which, put like that, does throw a spotlight on how cretinous the Brexiteers were and are. It also suggests that in their heart of hearts they knew the result was meaningless, and rather than actually work towards what they (thought they) wanted, they felt (out of guilt) some sort of need to crush any criticism as though it was heresy.

In hindsight, I wonder how much closer we would be to some sort of Brexit if the Brexiteers had soft-soaped the less fervent Leavers, rather than go "ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE" on front pages everywhere. Thus alienating, not attracting a Leaver core ?

(At that point DBs colleague started talking about Kissinger and DB "zoned out" ....)

But an interesting tactical view from abroad. And, one feels (ironically) probably more how Churchill might have played it.

Negativity about immigration falls away sharply in Brexit Britain

Well certainly the World Cup hasn't done any harm ...

Gavin Kelly @ gavinjkelly
High levels of public support for a higher minimum wage, pay that covers the cost of living and government top-ups for low-earning parents (single & couples) with kids. Via BSA @NatCen

There's been a big shift against further welfare cuts. Belief that they are too damaging now 13% ahead of the view they are needed to encourage self-reliance. @NatCen

Interesting shift. Tory Right very much out of tune with this.

Gavin Kelly @ gavinjkelly1
An increase in public support for higher spending on all key benefit groups (including the unemployed) - other than pensioners. @NatCen

All that is required for evil to triumph is to allow men to do anything.

Irish Examiner: Good riddance

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/ourview/johnson-quits-mays-cabinet-good-riddance-854062.html

he is no more than a Bullingdon Club version of Donald Trump.

Only time will tell if he is finished in politics or if he will mount a challenge to Theresa May’s leadership, but one thing is certain —

should Britain’s Conservative Party be mad enough to even consider him as its leader, our world will be a far darker place.

Btw if DON'T get Brady with his Santa sack of letters today, it's because Brexiteers really think they can push May into No Deal.

I think I am of the opinion that i'd rather have a challenge than not.

Has Boris stopped squatting yet?

Paul Lewis @ paullewismoney
Please welcome the new Attorney General, promoter of tax haven secrecy who received £40,000 from Cayman Islands legal firm for legal advice in February
www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/devon-mp-geoffrey-cox-under-1534108.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Devon MP Geoffrey Cox under fire after defending tax havens against scrutiny
“At a time when there is rightly fury at the murky world of tax havens, it is stunning that a legal man should fail to declare his interest"

Of course, he's a leaver... I wonder what attracted him to the idea.

Is there recent promotion in government which doesn't involve a Tory MP involved in breaking parliamentary standards or being caught up in some sort of lack of transparency scandal?

Gavin Kelly @ gavinjkelly1
Do the public think the robots are coming? Yes - but for someone else's job. 75% think 'many' current jobs will be automated within 10 years. But only 10% are worried their job will be automated.

The 'bad things only happen to other people' mentality.

Sigh

There's a whole new role in spotting and dealing with the cock ups made by robots.

Is there a lot of Tory MPs at the top who haven’t been involved in any transparency scandal/sexism etc etc

Well certainly the World Cup hasn't done any harm
Apart from normalising the Russian dictatorship and a corrupt 'elite' running international football;
Domestic Violence increase:38% when england loses, 26% when they win;
Attacks on 'foreign' shops in england;
Diverting scarce police resources;
Providing cover for funded extremists to infiltrate football fan organisations;
Weaponising 'english' nationalism for you know what.

No, no harm at all.

I just can't get my head around all of this. I'm not a great critical thinker like others on this thread (who I'm massively grateful to for sharing their insight) but I can't square this circle.

British politics thrives on a legacy of being pragmatic, in moving forward and being, in the main, progressive. I know that's a generalisation and historically our hands aren't the cleanest. But I really always thought we weren't as corrupt, as dishonest and cowardly as other governments around the world.

We have murders not being discussed because a woman had a lifestyle we would all rather pretend doesn't exist, rufugees held like common criminals, politicians lying to their faces and no press properly holding them to account until well after the fact, and most researchers, lawyers and polls showing that this is destroying our country. Then more lies. And more ignorance. We're closing our eyes and minds to the idea of just getting on in the world because of what? What is this argument that's convinced so many people that we're doing the right thing?

My MIL posted a FB status early yesterday praising DD for his principled stance. I commented that now chaos will reign openly, and she said it's a house of cards anyway. She is a Tory to her core, and voted for Brexit. She expects the whole thing to collapse and is seemingly quite happy about it.

That sound you can hear is the scales from my eyes clanging onto the ground. I'd pick them up but today is one of those days I wish I wasn't human.

Plonky, don't make the mistake of thinking that anyone can get their head around this anymore than you.

People want to believe in something. There is a human need to. Not having that leaves us feeling naked, exposed and very alone. That's why religion remains so popular even in an age of science.

When what you believe in is shown to be not working, the temptation is to abandon it completely, rather than to do the hard work of digging deeper to rediscover and reinforce where that belief came from. And learn from those mistakes to make it better.

The thing is that above all else, caring and giving a shit about things outside our own little bubble of experience are essential. The more shit we see the more the temptation is to shut down and withdraw.

We can't.

We might be a tiny corner of MN, but we are still here. Existing is important. Things ripple.

Just Keep Talking.

A trade expert from Geneva.

Dmitry Grozoubinski @DmitryOpines
1/ Why is Brexit so complicated? A trade thread. (Warning: Long) The trade details of Brexit are critical, but there's confusion about what's going on. Since I'm followed by both @LeaveHQ folks and thanks to @mrjamesob, half of #FBPE, a maximally neutral explanation thread

2/ Post-Brexit, trade relations between the UK and the EU will fall on a spectrum which runs from complete separation (Hard Brexit: trading under only @WTO rules) on one end and remaining in the EU for trade purposes (Soft Brexit) on the other.

3/ What is that spectrum all about? The closer the UK is to the 'only @WTO side', the more barriers it'll face in trading with the EU, both in goods like cars and services like accounting and finance, but the more trade policy and regulatory independence the UK will have.

4/ Why barriers? In order to trade in a foreign market, exports in both goods and services have to pay tariffs & prove they meet a range of regulations. Some services are even completely barred. Under the EU Single Market, exports from the UK don't face these problems.

5/ Why independence? In order to maintain the 'Single Market' described above, EU has no internal tariffs and closely aligned rules on goods and services. The UK had a voice in shaping those. Under a WTO model, the UK can set its own.

6/ Why are barriers bad? Every check at the border adds time, administrative cost and hassle. This makes British firms less competitive. Many modern supply chains rely on 'just in time' models where parts arrive mere hours before they're used. Delays risk that.

7/ What about tariffs? Because the EU is a Customs Union, there are no tariffs on goods trade between its Members and the entire bloc has a common set of external tariffs. This means UK firms don't pay tariffs, and say, US firms only pay tariffs once to enter Europe.

8/ If after Brexit the UK is in the Customs Union, it will not be able to offer other countries reduced tariffs as part of Free Trade Agreement negotiations. However, if it's not, UK goods may be charged tariffs upon entry into the EU and vice versa (read: delays, admin, costs).

9/ Ok, and what about migration? So importantly, because the UK wasn't part of Schengen, EU citizens never had the right to 'migrate' there, except as part of delivering a 'service' (ie. for work). A key UK Brexit demand has been to end that.

10/ So what's the problem? The EU considers its Single Market indivisible, across both goods and services. They say the UK limiting services (including travel for employment) but keeping current goods arrangements undermines the EU Single Market by cherry picking from it.

11/ I keep hearing about different 'models' like the Norway Model, the Swiss Model, Turkey model etc. What are those? Some non-EU countries have worked out arrangements with the EU whereby they enjoy some of the benefits of the Single Market, but retain some autonomy.

12/ Sounds great. What's the downside? Under the Norway Model for example, the country is part of the EU Single Market for Goods and Services (including movement of labor) but doesn't get a real voice in shaping the rules and regulations it must align with as a result.

13/ This all sounds very complicated and hard to keep track of, what should I be paying attention to? My advice is to ignore the rhetoric and ask for specifics.

14/ How? Demand clarity on the following: A truck arrives in Dover, headed for Calais carrying potatoes. - What documents will it need? - What documents will the driver need? - Will the potatoes be tested? - Who sets & administers the test? - Will a tariff need to be paid?

15/ Do not accept hand waving or vague assurances in response to those questions. They are going to be a matter of life and death for British businesses. Also do not accept: - The WTO rules mean it will be fine. - We'll just do an FTA. - EU won't want problems. /Thread

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
Let's return from personalities to the Chequers declaration and ask a few questions about the content of the latter - which has had not nearly enough scrutiny so far

1. Why is following EU rules on goods better than having a say as an EU or EEA member?
2. If Parliament is sovereign over introducing these rules do we expect there to be a plan to reintroduce borders on permanent standby?
3. What does the UK lose in terms of market access by being outside of the single market for services?
4. What trade deals would be precluded by being in the Single Market for goods or services?
5. What trade deals do we expect in services?
6. What makes the UK Government believe that the EU can complete negotiations in 21 months and therefore the Ireland backstop is not required?
7. How does the Government intend to maintain influence over EU regulations affecting UK trade after Brexit?
8. Who gets to decide which regulations the UK is required to follow in order to maintain frictionless trade?
9. In what sense will the Parliamentary oversight mechanisms differ from those as an EU member (ref IIf)
That will do for now...

You may be a tiny corner of Mumsnet but I, for one, have found and been following these threads for some time but have rarely (never?) posted. It's because of these threads that I wrote to my MP about the vote a few weeks ago, that I joined the People's Vote campaign, and that I have invested a lot of time and effort into trying to raise awareness of the reality of what is going on among friends and family. I'd bet good money I'm not the only one. You are having an impact.

Why is following EU rules on goods

Yay. To use a favourite MN word narrative. There is one significant shift. The narrative is at last moving to talking about EU rules on goods.Rather than this generic rubbish about having all our laws made in Brussels-at last more and more people are correctly identifying that we chose to agree joint rules for ease of trade in a selection of discrete areas affecting e.g. goods, food and environment.

It is finally sinking in ( but not with my stereotypical Express headline quoting FIL) that the huge bulk of legislation on key matters is exercised unilaterally by all member states- and always has been.

We could be having an impact. I thought also that Communism was undermined - it didn't entirely collapse from above.

I also thought of ants (especially in hot countries) completely destroying buildings, or in this country, plants growing up through cracks in concrete and doing the same. So we can undermine the Brexiters.

It's because of these threads that I wrote to my MP about the vote a few weeks ago, that I joined the People's Vote campaign, and that I have invested a lot of time and effort into trying to raise awareness of the reality of what is going on among friends and family. I'd bet good money I'm not the only one.

It's what I say to friends who say they feel powerless. Just start with 5 or 10 mins a day signing petitions, commenting on press or number 10 websites, writing to MPs etc. It makes a difference.