Westminstenders: Rebel or Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The EU Withdrawal Bill made it through the Commons. Though May did not manage it unscathed.

In an attempt to divide and conquer the Rebels, May might have damaged trust. We shall find out. The Grieve Amendment faces the Lords. We also will see if the Lords will back down on their amendments or apply some new ones for the Commons to deal with in Parliamentary Ping Pong.

Aaron Banks has been exposed as being pally with the Russian Embassy in a plot twist that absolutely everyone saw coming.

Meanwhile the EU thinks we have already run out of time and is preparing options to extend talks beyond the a50 deadline. These include having MEPs for the 2019 - 2024 session.

There is also growing talk around Europe that freedom of movement in its current form is unsustainable. Ironically we might see the EU adopt something akin to Cameron's pre-referendum proposals as the EU reforms.

Theresa May has also announced - at a moment when she is looking particularly weak - a new tax for the NHS, cunningly disguised in spin as 'the Brexit dividend'. Of course shareholders don't always get dividends and at times of poor economic performance instead might be asked to stump up extra capital...Expect to see buses with £350 million of the side just in time for the next general election cycle.

And so the Zombie PM limbers on towards the end of the summer session and the relative safety of the summer holidays. More drama, cringing and disbelief guaranteed before we get there.

the UK Brexits with no / a WTO deal, then finds itself in deep shit and the EU fast-tracks an emergency transition to Norway+

It's really not far from DH's suggestion of crash exit, two weeks of hell then back in the EU scenario to kill off Brexit forever.

I don't share his optimism that it would have that effect but he's certainly seen that type of sceanio as a possibility for well over a year.

So.
That's that then.

It's really not far from DH's suggestion of crash exit, two weeks of hell then back in the EU scenario to kill off Brexit forever.

I would like to see the latter, but it will be longer than two weeks of hell, and the EU will get the blame, in the short term at least.

I still think that "events in the next few months - major businesses pulling out, pound crashing - make the Uk blink first and start negotiating Norway+" is the most likely scenario, but getting there is proving much harder and slower than I anticipated.

The state is failing. See 1929 Weimar. I threw up for 2 days straight when I came back to this island a couple of weeks ago. I now realise it wasn't food poisoning.

Presumably, if we hit a WTO scenario, we'll have 200+ countries interpretation of WTO rules to deal with

Another DGR pick ...

Weather man and the crazy chief
One says sun and one says sleet

I dunno RTB, I’m struggling to see this madness in any other context than deliberate destruction. I can’t see it being undone in a fortnight once we go over the cliff edge. Pride, hubris and corruption have got us this far, they’ll take us a hell of a lot further before sense returns.

I think it’ll be years.

Once the supertankers stopped going through the Suez and round the Southern tip of Africa instead, the shipping industry in Greece started to decline

It hasn't really declined.

There was never much benefit to Greece as a whole from the shipping industry.

The shipping industry gets an opt out from taxation and its benefit to anyone except those directly employed or directly profiting is negligible.

www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/eurozone-greece-shipping/

There are many such sacred cows in Greece.

I agree AndSheSteppedOnTheBall.

@mathanxiety
Thanks
There are obviously stereotype views of various countries which will have some basis of truth but grasping and running with new production techniques etc is obviously significant. I remember IBM computers assembled in Ireland from the 1980s.
RTB, apart from the political aspect is there anything stopping the UK staying in the EU at this point? At what point does the EU say 'go away'?

I'd love to believe red's DH, but I suspect that andshe is probably right. And the amount of damage that will cause will take generations to recover.

I have a feeling there was a fair amount of 'creativity' in some of the Greek accounting which led to the problems with the EU

Companies that will be losing money and leaving will not spend even more to come back. 'When they're gone they're gone' as they say.
I would not 'knock' British 'Hi Tec' as we are good at it but a lot of it is small and portable (the companies not necessarily products) so setting up outside Britain is not likely to be too hard.

Education in England has been rehashing arguments of the 50s every decade since. Still debating the value of Latin.

I was thinking today, if I were the EU, I would tell the UK to go away.

I think if I'm thinking that, there is no reason to believe they won't just do that come March next year.

So where are we? Is it a given that we crash out? What about N Ireland? We could cancel Brexit, but the rest of the EU would be pretty cheesed off, with all the time we have wasted, and I think they would want some guarantee that we wouldn't try it on again. The way I see it is that we have whinged and whinged for special deals for 43 years, not been satisfied, and they have now called our bluff.

I was right to feel sick. But I then tell myself, that human nature is resilient. I hope one thing we get out of this is a destroyed Tory party, and I wouldn't mind Labour going too, although I don't loathe them in the same way.

Theresa May might as well throw the DUP under the bus now, because she's got enough Labour MPs to support her.

The EU would presumably only offer a transition on current terms, minus MEPs.
So no problem thee with NI border

Norway+ could readily be negotiated to solve the NI border.
If the Uk crashes, it will be firmly told to accept what the EU - and possibly the IMF - think best

A few days of rationing, shortages, plummeting pound, widespread rioting & protests … would give any UK govt a reality check

I just don’t think it will be that simple. We’re in the middle of a collective madness, a mass hysteria.

When you look back at the events that precipitated major global catastrophes - wars, financial crashes - there are always a series of smaller catastrophes in individual countries.

Everything is headed in one direction - The political impasse in the US has been brewing for decades, Trump is merely the symptom. The wars in the Middle East have caused a refugee crisis, which in turn is causing a political crisis in Europe. Russia is meddling in all of it, to increase the instability.

In decades to come, Brexit will be seen as just a part of something bigger - what, I dread to think.

But it’s not going to be a few days of food shortages followed by a ticking off from the IMF.

Bottom line is the brexists did this with violence and lies. They've murdered a mother, and threatened those who would have voted against the regime today; it was not a free vote.

The traditional way to oppose fascists might be more successful.

A few days of rationing, shortages, plummeting pound, widespread rioting & protests … would give any UK govt a reality check

You would think that warnings from industry that Brexit will be a disaster would be sufficient, but it hasn't been. As AndSheStepped said, it's a collective madness. It will eventually be worked out of our system, but how long will it take? It won't be a few weeks.

Anytime before Brexit Day, I think the UK could stay in the EU

Almost certainly so if there is a new UK govt which makes a clear request to do so
AND it states in writing that the UK will not invoke A50 for at least say 10 or 15 years

It is more of a political decision than an legal one - the ECJ would be unlikely to oppose revoking A50 if all parties agree.

Germany & France would probably throw their weight behind this and none of the E27 have any major objections afaik
I think - and hope - that none of them would want compensation for the money they wasted on Brexit prep
and also that the EU Commission / Parliament would write off the costs of their top-level negotiating resources and all those impact analyses & statements to stakeholders.

Of course, any business or research etc lost in the meantime would stay lost, as would the agencies

BUT
once the UK has actually Brexited, that is a very different matter

The legal situation changes and the Uk would have to reapply under Article 49
Accession countries have a transition and the UK's would be easy if all parties wanted it,
but I don't think it would be offered.

Unless the EU see a complete change of heart after a Brexit crash, in particular a genuine embrace of European ideals, instead of nationalist delusions and cash-registers,
they would prefer the Uk in EEA/EFTA

where trade can flow freely,
but the UK is far less able to keep blocking progress, or pushing US wishes onto the EU

The EU are fed up with decades of anti-EU hostility and ridiculous EUSSR conspiracy memes, which started long before the refugee crisis,
before even the East European workers arrived in the uk`

To keep making the point, not in my name.

and also that the EU Commission / Parliament would write off the costs of their top-level negotiating resources and all those impact analyses & statements to stakeholders.

I don't think that is work wasted - because it does tell them useful information about the state of the EU.
Motheroffourdragons - don't give up. The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

What battle will the March win? There’s no real opposition to brexit in Parliament, so who is going to listen?