What do you think will happen over the next five years?

[KennDodd]

I think no shiny great new agreement will be made with the EU and we'll crash out without a deal, followed very quickly by a GE. We'll fall out with all our closest neighbors and it'll be all our own fault.Right wing press and public will continue to blame the EU for all out troubles.

Well, actually, I haven't a clue what will happen, the only thing I'm confident about is that the only person who will get what they hoped for out of Brexit is Putin.

What do you think will happen over the next five years?

No idea. I’m very impressed with people can accurately second-guess stuff like this because there are so many utterly unpredictable variables.
It all feels desperate really

I always find it difficult to look beyond a week let alone 5 years!

It'll be some kind of fudge agreement, which no one will particularly like, but by then most ordinary people will be sick to the back teeth with it all.

The usual right-wing press will continue to blather on about it for a while, but then realise even their paying readers are bored with it.

Economically, most people will be slightly worse off, but won't be in a position to compare how things might have been without brexit.

Multi-national business will continue to run rings around government (with their secret blessing) and make more profit.

After a few years, UKIP version 2 will rise up.

Harry and Megan will 'amicably ' separate.

Well my children will have left school, I will be having a ‘big’ birthday, the mortgage will hopefully be paid off (been a long time coming) and the dog will probably have died!!. Apart from that who knows.

Apart from UKIP version 2 and Harry and Meghan, about which I have no opinion, I agree with Ifailed. I've said from the start it would be an almighty fudge and we'd basically stay in the EU, but with less say and more payments to make.

My main fear is a long, slow process of decline that we won't really notice, like the proverbial boiling frog. Nothing catastrophic and sudden will happen, but the UK will quietly become a less successful, vibrant and nice place to live.

I don't think we'll crash out.

I think we'll get BINO so basically be in a worse position than before with the added bonus of a huge wedge driven through society because of this.

Those that voted leave will forever complain about not leaving properly and those who voted remain will complain because they never wanted any of this.

Economically, most people will be slightly worse off, but won't be in a position to compare how things might have been without brexit.

I so hope that's all we have. My biggest worries, and reasons I voted the way I did (remain) isn't the economy though. NI, Gibraltar and even Scotland are much bigger worries for me. I feel bad about the fact that we have knowingly, as a nation, voted for something that'll harm our closest neighbors. It pisses me off no end when posters complain that the EU is bullying us (how can that be possible if 'we hold all the cards'?) we are expecting the to help us implement a policy that will damage them, of course they are going try to limit the damage to themselves.

I think as a nation we are changed by this, even if Brexit was abandoned now, and not changed in a good way. I'm barely speaking to my mum about it, I'm fine with some other Leavers, it's just that Brexit has given my mum's racism a whole new impious, it's her racism I have a problem with not so much her voting leave, even though it's costing me my job.

Any positive views? I don't want to live in a remain echo chamber. I do follow the Vote Leave and Leave EU etc on facebook but little of sense comes out of there. Some leavers on MN do have positive and reasoned (a bit) views.

Those that voted leave will forever complain about not leaving properly and those who voted remain will complain because they never wanted any of this.

And I hope the electorate never forgive the Tories for this.

In addition half the population will distrust and resent the other half and we’ll have lost any respect and goodwill we once had in the rest of the world. Thanks.

I think we'll get BINO

I don't, I don't think the far right will let that happen and I really fear for the consequences afterwards.

I wish somebody would just come out and state the bloody obvious as well, that Brexit and the GFA are fundamentally incomparable and that one of them will have to go.

Come on, good news please! Somebody come on and tell us why and how it'll all be great?

The far right are going to have to put up or shut up, and I can't see them doing the former.

It's one thing shouting from the back seat but they will never take the driving seat and push the button on 'no deal'

It's simply too detrimental to the country for anyone to actually make that a reality.

We are leaving the UK (we're not British) and it was either now or wait another 3 or so years.

I hope it goes well for the UK (our pensions will still be here!) but I really don't think it will be ok once it settles.

I did vote remain as I just couldn't understand why you'd leave but reading these threads have made me see the other sides point of view.

I'd still vote remain again but it's not going to be my problem soon. I feel for my friends who will be here dealing with it if it does go tits up though.

I agree that BINO and a gradual slide into irrelevance is the most likely outcome.

There is still a chance of a catastrophic no-deal but I think it's becoming smaller as senior Brexit figures start to step back from the edge (Cummings, Lillico just this week ....).

The third option, which I wouldn't rule out completely although I am not sure how we get there from here, is an extension or even a withdrawal of A50.

While Corbyn has to shoulder some of the blame for this sorry mess, I think that the prospect of a Corbyn government may be what will stop the Tories driving the bus over the cliff.

Best case scenario: BINO and the economy continues much as it is now, ie sluggishly. May struggles on for a while longer before being replaced by a right-wing headbanger who loses the next election. Corbyn then becomes PM, but it very quickly becomes apparent that he is completely & hopelessly out of his depth and he steps aside. David Miliband takes over.

Worst case scenario: We crash out without a deal, & Rees-Mogg becomes PM. Business is thrown into chaos, flights are grounded, paralysis at the ports leading to shortages in supermarkets, the economy slumps into a very serious recession / depression, the pound collapses in value. Unemployment surges, property prices collapse. The Good Friday agreement unravels, and violent conflict resumes in Ireland. A right-wing populist political party emerges with a nationalist/ racist agenda and makes huge electoral gains amid widespread civil unrest.

I think the best case scenario is the boiled frog one, everything is a bit worse and a bit poorer but people don't really notice and in time we adjust to our new reduced world status. The worst case involves a resumption of NI troubles, Scotland leaving UK and an economic crash.
We have temporarily left UK and I personally would be perfectly happy not to return.

BINO with another lurch out of CU (to a status about 2mm outside the BINO boundary) in about 2032 that will be very rocky in lots of ways. That's when the technology that Brexiters want now will finally be ready. Whole country is going to go down a few notches wrt tech and science and most engineering research. There are going to be many weird smuggling issues over Irish border. Will probably keep our global position wrt arms manufacture.

I think the boiling frog analogy is entirely relevant to Leavers, they are having their expectations dumbed down with each passing day.

Onde day, when they wake up boiled it will dawn on them.

add to that Remainers who are mightlity pissed off anyway and we've just gone backwards about 50 years.

Nobody really knows.

My stab in the dark is that we will crash out and things will be desperately bad, not just in the short-term. People will be shocked how bad things can really be and everyone will be blaming each other. There will be a civil war.

Things won't be great in Europe either and they will blame the UK for causing it. This will all be watched by the global media and our desperation will be watched by the whole world.

Meanwhile, prominent leave campaigners will have fucked off New York or LA and won't care too much about anything that's happening here.

I can't imagine a civil war. I just think we're too inert as a nation. Someone I know who's from Ukraine told me they thought there'd be a general strike, but I think we're too unengaged even for that!

Quiet grumbling is more the British way.

I can't imagine a civil war. I just think we're too inert as a nation.

That's because the majority of us are well-fed. If something happened to our supply chains, we wouldn't be civil or inert for too long. Hungry people behave differently.

Lots of fudging in the background with snippets that might appease leavers appearing in the UK media. Expectations will be gradually managed downwards until we get a souped up version of the transition arrangement as the final deal. Eventually, the EU might grant us a special name like "Associate Members" which will be almost exactly the same as now but with less influence. The UK government will start actually applying the existing rules regarding FOM and it will be sold to leavers in the media as a special exemption for the UK from FOM. Maybe EU citizens and the rest of us? will have to have an ID card.

Corbyn and May will shuffle on until some sort of arrangement with the EU is made as nobody else wants the poisoned chalice but will be dropped like hot potatoes before 2022 and replaced by a new generation of leaders who are wisely keeping their heads well down at the moment.

Do you think even our government will let things get to the point of collapsed supply chains?

My impression so far is that they keep pulling things back from the brink. Granted, it seems to be done by dint of fudges and kicking cans down roads, which perhaps can't go on for ever, but I can see them scraping together some sort of assurance/deal/transition that will stop food supply from totally collapsing.

I have no idea. I do think that Europe is going to struggle going forward though. I was reading about what’s happening in Italy at the moment with two extreme parties forming a coilition to form a government. I really do think the immigration crisis will continue and will cause huge rifts and divides in the future.

I think they’ll be a point where we’ll all look back and realised we got out at the right time.

SleepFreeZone

There's been a lot of very enlightening discussion about the Italy situation on the Westminstenders thread. Well worth a read.