Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Hmm, from elsewhere:

www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/world/europe/uk-austerity-poverty.html

After eight years of budget cutting, Britain is looking less like the rest of Europe and more like the United States, with a shrinking welfare state and spreading poverty.

(contd)

Is that suggesting US jealousy at Europe ?

After eight years of budget cutting, Britain is looking less like the rest of Europe and more like the United States, with a shrinking welfare state and spreading poverty.

That's what the Brexiters want. I am convinced that if they can't regain our former US colonies then being the 51st state will be a good compromise.

then being the 51st state will be a good compromise.

There was quite a vogue in Sicily after the war to ally with US as the next state ... went quiet after Guiliano was assassinated.

Civil servant JDD on RNorth's thread today is hinting very strongly that May could resign before the EU Council Mtg (28-29 June)
No GE, but (yet another) new Tory leader

Let's see in a few weeks whether this was just another rumour, or maybe another plot that collapsed

He is suggesting a front bench MP would be "crowned" by the 1922 Committee / Men in Grey Suits,
without going through the election rounds of MPs whittling down the numbers.

He also said that the 1922 chair months ago received the 48 letters to trigger a confidence vote on May's leadership.
However, he claims the chair has the choice not to do so, because some letters had caveats

Well, I agree on one point:
If May resigns, there is no time to go through all the scheduled rounds of MP voting, before the EU Council mtg in a month
Also, the 1922 the 1922 Committee would not risk letting the backwoodsmen select a nut-case and doom the Tory Party to a few decades out of power.

My betting will be that a resignation will be on the grounds of ill health. I also think the men in grey suits did for Loathsome Leadsom, although she did give them sufficient rope to hang her with so it was an easy task.

Who might the favoured candidate be? Davis, Fox, Johnson and Rees-Mogg no longer seem in the running, although I could be wrong and anyway, non of them want the job at present. Who else is likely?

Who else is likely?

The fact you didn't think to mention Hammond speaks volumes ....

Who else is likely?

Gove ..... Hunt, Lidington, Hammond, Grayling, Gauke?

It looks increasing like there is a coup afoot to instal Gove. God help us all.

I'm not saying any of my names are suitable in fact the contrary just they are the 2nd tier of likely Cabinet members with sufficient seniority to be considered - possibly.

Gove is the Brexiters candidate, but is he the men in suits candidate? IMO he's too dangerous for them, and hated by so many that he too could destroy the Tory party. (We can live in hope!)

Meanwhile the Guardian leads on a Soros backed campaign for another Brexit vote.

Cue some all out anti-semitic bile from the Heil and Excess.

Gavin Williamson? Defence Secretary (and former Chief Whip) is presumably senior enough

Yes, to Gavin Williamson

Richard Madeley pulls plug on interview with Gavin Williamson after angry row for not giving 'straight answers'

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/gavin-williamson-cut-off-on-live-gmb-performance-after-angry-row-with-richard-madeley-a3849896.html

The Tory leadership is a poisoned chalice right now. Therefore my money would be on Loathsome because she is dumb enough to believe she could actually do the job, and also very manageable by the real movers and shakers who would risk nothing in perilous times, and could turf her out whenever she became too much of a liability, or whenever someassive distraction was needed.

Other than her, Steve Baker.

I think the ERG and those inclined to think like them really do seek to establish the UK as the 51st state. This would give them the big pond they believe they deserve and where they think they belong. The EU wasn't big enough and there was the presence and power of Germany and France to contend with. Also the galling spectacle of Ireland participating on an equal basis - constant reminders of losing the peace and having the bird flipped at them in no uncertain fashion.

Close alliance with the US otoh would elicit the familiar feeling of ruling the waves, being on the winning team, with I suspect more than a few dreaming of dominating the US, their old world British public school cleverness and cunning easily overwhelming the brash Americans with their degrees from places like the University of Iowa (wherever the heck Iowa may be) whose fondest high school memories probably include such simple wholesome fun as Friday night football/ hot dogs/ cheerleaders...

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/29/roman-abramovich-cannot-work-in-uk-israeli-passport-chelsea-fc
Abramovich cannot work in UK if he arrives on Israeli passport, No 10 says

Abramovich, who had reportedly faced delays in renewing his UK visa, will be allowed to visit the UK visa-free for up to six months at a time with his Israeli passport, but cannot work in the country, Theresa May’s spokesman said.

I do hope the hostile environment will check on the difference between Mr Abramovich 'visiting' compared with when he is 'working'.

How do the home office jobs worth determine whether a billionaire is working or at leisure anyway????!

Yet another reason the EU don't trust the UK: unlawfully copying data from EU police system

https://euobserver.com/justice/141919

The United Kingdom has been illegally copying classified personal information from a database reserved for members of the passport-free Schengen travel zone.

It has shared the information with US companies and it is demanding to keep access to the database after it leaves the EU next year 

An internal EU document, seen by EUobserver, listed years of violations by British authorities following restricted access to the Schengen Information System (SIS),
an EU-run database used by police to track down undocumented migrants, missing people, stolen property, or suspected criminals.

The UK never joined the Schengen area, which includes 26 other European countries most of whom are EU members, but has been given some access to SIS since 2015.

British mismanagement and manipulation of the Schengen system also meant that "persons sought for arrest for instance even for terrorism related activities by Schengen Associated Countries cannot be detected upon entry to the UK," said the "restricted" EU document.

The British authorities copied the data and handed it over to border police despite the fact that some of the information contained was not only incorrect but entirely out of date, it added.

That meant that innocent people visiting or living in the UK run the risk of being flagged for violations they never committed from data that was unlawfully copied.

The 29-page document, drafted by Schengen experts from EU states and from the European Commission,
said the UK violations "constitute serious and immediate risks to the integrity and security of SIS data as well as for the data subjects."

Some of these copies were unlawfully stored on back-up laptops at airports and ports.

Other copies were held at government offices.

Other still were held by private contractors like CGI, a US-Canadian company, as well as IBM and ATOS, which were hired by the UK government to run the systems.

You have to ask, given the gross mismanagement of the database and the failure to communicate its contents with immigration officials at points of entry, what exactly was the UK government doing with it? Why did the government want it?

It reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where Jerry and Elaine have reserved a rental car.

Well done, Richard Madeley!

If only every interviewer was brave enough to do this, we’d have a lot less prevaricating woffle to endure.

The British authorities copied the data and handed it over to border police despite the fact that *some of the information contained was not only incorrect but entirely out of date

Operation Ore all over again. Which is why - conversely - the US doesn't trust the UK police with sensitive data any more.

My betting will be that a resignation will be on the grounds of ill health.

I've always thought this too. It's her get-out-of-jail-free card.

I think Leadsom is the only one thick enough to actually think she could do the job, in the sense of giving us a moderate Brexit.

Gove might be ambitious enough and enough of a 'burn the world up' Brexiteer to want it so he can lead us into our glorious future as the 51st state of America.

Cui bono from a change in Tory leader ?

Any change in leadership (quite aside from the obvious "meh" from the EU at this stage) is just another fissure across the Tory party.

If May is pushed, there will be a narrative of "traitors" from the faction that doesn't get represented.

Is she resigns (possibly her only trump card) then fingers will be pointed at the JRM contingent of Tories suggesting some sort of unsportsmanlike pressure on her (which might poison any possibility of another female PM - Leadsom take note).

Either way, I can't see the Tories "coming together" anytime soon.

So the fundamental problem stands.

Never has the metaphor of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic been so apposite. More so for those of us who know where it was built.

The problem stands, certainly.

I just wonder if May will resign for her own health/sanity.

The US don't even trust the UK with the nuclear codes. UK dependent on the US for it's defence. That doesn't attract the focus of the Brexiteers. It was all about the UK being in control of it's own affairs, no? But not it's security, when the US is in control, apparently. Having US military bases here is fine for sovereignty, too, apparently.

And the chappie in QT audience. When asked by DD if he knew exactly what he was voting for, he said yes. So him and all the Leave voters knew how the UK paid for some access to SIS, although not in Schengen itself. And they were happy to leave it. Knew all about how Euratom, Ema, Europol, EBA and Horizon operated and wanted to withdraw. Knew the pros and cons of the single market and the European CM.

So he and all the Leave.........

Suella a sight of obfuscation as brexit committee witness. Yeah, the text to pay the debt is in green. Agreed. No conditions in the agreed text.

I remember Suella telling us all before that it was the other way round.
The EU owed the UK money. Nobody reminding her of that and where it was in the text, in green.