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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 08/05/2018 22:31

Lords have voted in favour of single market amendment!

OH MY GOD!!!

I watch Eurovision and ignore everything else for ONE evening and miss THAT?!

The Commons mathematics mean that May can't win a vote on the customs union if the rebels stick with it. She knows this: hence why she has delayed vote until the autumn now and hence why Johnson is doing his nut.

The question now is what the Labour MPs will do. They have the numbers: with support from the Tory Rebels who have declared they have the numbers, to stay in the Single Market. The only obstacle to that is Corbyn himself.

Wow. Just wow.

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 08/05/2018 22:33

Am ecstatic (and sloshed!) tonight Wine

woman11017 · 08/05/2018 22:34

And Netta's through to the Eurovision finals.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2018 22:35

Daily Express Ultras look rather cross, Grin capital letters galore

BREXIT BETRAYERS: Outrage as Lords vote against will of Britain for THIRTEENTH time

Comments btl are barking, as usual

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/956749/Brexit-latest-news-House-Lords-peers-Theresa-May-Boris-Johnson-vote

Peregrina · 08/05/2018 22:36

I'm not getting ecstatic yet. Not until the ink is dry on an agreement - EEA is second best, but would suit well enough, and would get round the thorny issue of the NI border - which some Leavers still don't get as being a problem.

woman11017 · 08/05/2018 22:37

Wine cheers pain

Daily Express Ultras look rather cross, grin capital letters galore

@George_Osborne
Brexiteers complaining about the unelected House of Lords tonight will I’m sure remember that the rebellion against the Tory plan for elected peers in 2012 was led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, supported by David Davis, as this editorial @EveningStandard pointed out
www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-brexiteers-change-their-tune-on-lords-power-a3828121.html

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2018 22:39

Bojo is definitely barking - and crawling …

Boris Johnson: Why ‘fixer’ Donald Trump should get a Peace PrizeHmm

Yes, Trump will want this, because Obama won it (for not being George W, so he didn't deserve it either)

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/956444/donald-trump-noble-peace-prize-boris-johnson-north-korea-iran-nuclear-deal

Peregrina · 08/05/2018 22:40

What was the will of Britain? I thought it was for more money for the NHS - have the Lords voted against this? Grin Or is the Express spouting the usual hogwash?

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2018 22:46

S Kinnock wrote this article obviously before the vote, but it is a good analysis of the importance of the vote, the Single Market
and why this is the best possible Brexit, particularly at this late stage

With the EEA vote, the Lords can set Theresa May on the right Brexit path

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/08/eea-vote-lords-theresa-may-brexit-suropean-economic-area-post-eu

RedToothBrush · 08/05/2018 22:55

In other news some conservatives and the DUP (and no doubt Kate Hoey) are doing their nut about this:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-44042438?__twitter_impression=true
No 'statute of limitations' in NIO draft legacy paper

And here's George getting the boot in tonight

George Osborne @ george_osborne
Brexiteers complaining about the unelected House of Lords tonight will I’m sure remember that the rebellion against the Tory plan for elected peers in 2012 was led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, supported by David Davis, as this editorial @EveningStandard pointed out
Editorial from 1st May

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RedToothBrush · 08/05/2018 23:03

Esther Webber @ estwebber
... And we're out. Fourteen government defeats later, the Lords have completed report stage of the EU Withdrawal Bill

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RedToothBrush · 08/05/2018 23:15

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
Donald Trump signs executive order to pull US out of Iran nuclear deal, AND imposes sanctions at the same time: "The United States no longer makes empty threats".
This is the strongest possible option he could take. Many expected him to just impose sanctions and wait for Iran to save the deal. Gives Teheran little wiggle room, significantly increases chances of it immediately restarting centrifuges..
I’ve been in Tel Aviv all day, talking to Israeli military and intelligence figures. NONE wanted Trump to pull out, just Bibi Netanyahu and a few other politicians. So this should not be in Israel’s name.
^In fact, the IDF’s Chief of Staff Lt Gen Gadi Eizenkot got in big trouble with Bibi in March by saying the Iran deal was working and should not be scrapped; t.co/xmMOYAj6tY
Eizenkot said: “Right now the agreement, with all its faults, is working and is putting off realization of the Iranian nuclear vision by 10 to 15 years”. So Trump has also just scorned Israel’s most senior military officer - who is no shrinking violet.

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mathanxiety · 09/05/2018 07:08

DGRosetti:
Of course the Brexiteers would just say of Oradour that's it's "all in the past now" whilst simultaneously parading the remains of Empire around the place.

I disagree with the posited Brexiteer conclusion there.

I suspect they would look at Ordour and Lidice and see Germans and Germany written all over them, and from that conclude that the UK won the war but lost the peace, and that there was no honour in that, so best to leave Germany to it.

The central lesson of the rise of the Nazis, the Holocaust and indeed of the entirety of WW2 was lost on Britain. That lesson is suggested here:
www.bbc.com/news/stories-44008751
For his part, Ivor Perl, who has spoken widely about his experiences in schools, is concerned that understanding of the Holocaust in Britain is too narrow.

"People always ask me if I hate Germans, but it was the Hungarian boys I used to play football with in my home town who rounded us up into the ghetto with sticks" he says.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/05/2018 07:14

I wonder if it international law allows a country to give amnesty to its security forces for past war crimes Hmm - because that is probably how such crimes would be classified.

In the 1980s / 1990s, the Uk was forced by, iirc the ECHR, to reverse its decision not to prosecute rapes that were committed more than 30 years previously

No wonder May and many other Tories are so keen to leave the ECHR as well - in fact that was one reason for Brexit.
There is at least one Tory MP who stated without shame that he was "a bit of a torturer" in NI.

I hope future prosecutions include people like him, officers acting in cold blood, not just semi-literate squaddies who panic during a riot and shoot people

mathanxiety · 09/05/2018 07:17

Icant:
Plus - if they did it to take back control - wouldn't they coin a made up phrase in Irish?

Way ahead of ya - "Sinn Féin", translated as "Ourselves alone". Ironically.

The concept worked up to a point during the first half of the twentieth century, but when Benelux got up and running the benefits of closer European ties were immediately obvious. Ireland hit rock bottom in the late 40s and early 50s going it alone.

woman11017 · 09/05/2018 07:21

Among the soldiers who carried out the killing were 14 Alsatians who had been French citizens until the war
www.nytimes.com/2004/06/11/world/oradour-sur-glane-journal-where-642-died-a-wound-too-deep-for-time-to-heal.html
Anyone can choose to do anything. That's the lesson I take from Oradour Sur Glane.

HesterThrale · 09/05/2018 07:34

In other news, Labour are preparing an all woman, all BAME shortlist for the election in Heidi Alexander's Lewisham seat:

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/founder-of-uk-black-pride-tipped-for-lewisham-east-as-labour-prepares-all-woman-bame-shortlist-lady-phyll-opoku-gyimah-heidi-alexander_uk_5af20888e4b0aab8a789e062/?2yn=&__twitter_impression=true

Motheroffourdragons · 09/05/2018 07:43

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 09/05/2018 07:43

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/060efc62-5309-11e8-9795-08ef69e784e8
Security firms face ban on helping EU in row over satellite

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
The European Commission’s approach to excluding UK participation in Galileo is worrying some in government that a post Brexit Defence and Security Treaty post Brexit may no longer be possible

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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lalalonglegs · 09/05/2018 07:52

Hmm, Heidi Alexander's constituency is very close to Goldsmith's which has an extremely vocal trans cohort. I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of the trans student agitators try to get included on the all women shortlist. It could be an interesting test case.

RedToothBrush · 09/05/2018 07:52

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/stories-43555766?__twitter_impression=true
Asylum decision-maker: 'It's a lottery'

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mathanxiety · 09/05/2018 07:53

You have to wonder what sort of a can of worms there is and how much of it was known at the time, since there is support for a statute of limitations in certain circles.

Actually, forget that - the only thing to wonder at is that people supporting a statute of limitations seem oblivious to the fact that having a statute of limitations makes it look as if there was all sorts of illegal government sponsored terror going on. How do people think they can blatantly brush history under the rug, and do they think there could be no consequences to such stonewalling?

lalalonglegs · 09/05/2018 07:56

MoFD - the Lords have added significant amendments to the bill which will now almost certainly have to be debated in the Commons and, it is hoped, that the government hasn't the numbers to defeat most of them. This of course depends on Labour voting for the amendments...

Motheroffourdragons · 09/05/2018 07:58

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

missmoon · 09/05/2018 08:49

As I understand it the Commons have to reject the amendments in at least two separate parliamentary sessions (assuming the Lords keep sending them back) before they can force the bill through. But Theresa May decided after the election to hold a two-year parliamentary session (i.e. cancel this year’s queen’s speech), so the Commons won’t be able to force them through until after Brexit.

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