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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

OP posts:
Thread gallery
51
mathanxiety · 08/05/2018 09:24

Grin even..

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 08/05/2018 09:37

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/08/pharmaceutical-specialist-loses-job-and-home-due-to-tax-error
In the Home Office’s letter explaining the failure of her administrative review it says: “We do not find it credible that a fully qualified accountant would fail to declare the correct earnings to HMRC.”.
Accountants are completely infallible, but funny skinned forriners will cheat anyway they can it would seem Angry

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 08/05/2018 09:39

On a lighter note, I'd be wondering why the date of Trump's supposed visit on 13th July seemed familiar. Its the first date the Muppets are appearing at the O2. Coincidence?

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2018 09:43

Many of those who basically want survival of the fittest, unchained from regulations and state support, would actually do very badly if it came to that

DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 09:48

the date of Trump's supposed visit on 13th July

Has it been confirmed he'll actually be in London ?

Did I imagine somewhere that he tweeted "let Londoners display their freedom of speech" about any potential protests ? If so, he's managed to go up (from a very low level) a notch in my estimation ... if there are protests Hmm he'll claim he invited them himself ....

TheElementsSong · 08/05/2018 09:53

Maybe in the sunlit uplands, true patriots won’t ever get cancer?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 08/05/2018 11:05

Peston's take on the Lords and the SM:

Robert Peston
It is a funny old world where Theresa May can be seen as trying to force her party to back EU single-market membership - or something very close - by the back door, and Labour’s leadership sees its Lords and backbench MPs trying to do the same to it.

And yet Labour’s Remain MPs and Theresa May would claim - in public at least - to be a million miles from each other on our future commercial relationship with the EU.

As it happens, Jacob Rees-Mogg hit the nail on the head when he said on Peston on Sunday that the PM’s New Customs Partnership only works to facilitate UK trade with the EU and the softest border between Northern Ireland and the Republic if there is perfect alignment between EU and UK product standards and regulations.

Because only with that alignment could goods, and parts of goods and foods be whisked back and forth across the borders with the EU and be subject to zero checks.

In other words the New Customs Partnership is a Trojan horse for the single market, by another name.

Which is one reason why he hates it - as do Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, David Davis and the Brexiter wing of the cabinet.

The other reason they hate it is that they - rightly - fear that if EU tariffs are collected at our borders and EU borders, in practice no government would risk the ire of big business by setting our own tariffs at different rates, because business would shout blue murder about the bureaucratic inconvenience and costs of being subject to two different tariff regimes.

So there would be little-to-no taking back control with the New Customs Partnership. Which is why the Cabinet’s decision in the next fortnight on whether to back it and the PM will be the most dangerous moment of her prime-ministerial career.

Meanwhile Corbyn and co hate that Labour peers in the Lords are gearing up to back an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill that would explicitly keep the UK in the single market via the European Economic Area.

Arguably a majority of Labour’s backbench MPs also support EEA membership.

So if the Labour Lords defy him, that would be a big dent in his personal authority - and could see a declaration of UDI on Brexit policy by most of Labour’s parliamentary party.

Brexit still has the potential to tear both main parties apart - and perhaps even this side of the summer.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 08/05/2018 11:37

Jack Maidment
@jrmaidment
Amazed more isn't being made of Emily Thornberry's customs union comments from this morning.
She said: “What we want to do is we want to remain in THE customs union."
She said it twice.
Labour's position is to be in a customs union.
What's going on?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 08/05/2018 11:39

Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
BREAKING: Heidi Alexander to quit as an MP to be Sadiq Khan's deputy mayor for transport. Confirms Guardian story from last month. Prime seat in Lewisham East (with 21,000 maj) is now up for grabs.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/08/heidi-alexander-quits-as-labour-mp-to-be-london-deputy-mayor

DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 11:39

What's going on?

Semantics ? (I'm sure there's a pun there about anti-semanticism, but it would be beneath me.)

RedToothBrush · 08/05/2018 12:07

Labour's position is to be in a customs union.
What's going on?

Sensing a Tory rebellion and debate mobilises some.

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 12:19

City Hall said it was not legally possible for Alexander to be both deputy mayor and an MP,

How did Boris manage to be an MP and mayor then ?

Mayor of London
In office
4 May 2008 – 9 May 2016

Member of Parliament
for Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Incumbent
Assumed office
7 May 2015

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2018 12:24

So much for Brexiters claiming many Irish want to Irexit, or will blame the EU for the consequences of Brexit 🤦🏻‍♀️

The most recent EM Ireland/Red C polling shows that 92% of Irish people want to remain in the EU:

https://www.newstalk.com/Irish-people-in-favour-of-the-EU-goes-over-90-for-the-first-time

DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 12:50

So much for Brexiters claiming many Irish want to Irexit

Was anyone (apart from themselves) ever taking that seriously ?

Gonnarain · 08/05/2018 14:00

Back to Dobby’s post above about the pharmaceutical specialist targeted by the Home Office, here’s the Times of India's coverage. The Home Office’s behaviour hasn’t gone unnoticed by other Indian professionals - timesofindia.indiatimes.com/nri/other-news/indian-professionals-in-uk-protest-being-branded-threat-to-national-security-outside-downing-street/articleshow/62714019.cms

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 08/05/2018 14:31

Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
A child held illegally without charge, raped by a fellow prisoner. If this were a police station or prison, the officers would be suspended & the governor fired.

But he’s a migrant...

Child slavery victim sues Home Office after sexual assault at Morton Hall
Government accused of ‘catastrophic failure’ after admitting teenager was being held illegally when attacked by immigration centre inmate

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/may/07/child-slavery-victim-uk-government-sexual-assault

Peregrina · 08/05/2018 15:47

Brexit still has the potential to tear both main parties apart - and perhaps even this side of the summer.

They could both do with a shake up - both are complacent in their own ways.

DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 16:08

Brexit still has the potential to tear both main parties apart

Makes me think of honey bees, and how colonies split by some bees following the new queen, and some the (fading) pheremones of the old queen.

The problem is, even if we had the Remain Tories split and fuse with Remain Labour (and Leave Tories do the same with Leave Labour) we're back to a damn close 50/50 split and nothing would change. We might see some shift in parliament thanks to the UKs electoral peculiarities, but the underlying sentiments would be the same.

All paths lead back to Camerons moronic, cowardly, cretinous, brain dead, craven, ill advised, ill thought out, ill executed, gerrymandered, and frankly embarrassing "referendum". Ultimately that's the canker at the heart of all our woes.

Watching the SOE training documentary a few days back, it struck me (let's put to one side the absolute lack of any hint of language proficiency needed) that the fact the UK never suffered a horror like Oradour, or Lidice was never so starkly obvious than in the cavalier attitude Brexiteers have to the key sentiment at the heart of the EU. Of course the Brexiteers would just say of Oradour that's it's "all in the past now" whilst simultaneously parading the remains of Empire around the place.

Icantreachthepretzels · 08/05/2018 16:14

The thing that gets me about 'Irexit' is that ... it's such a fucking stupid word! of course they're not going to do it.

There may be other factors influencing their decision to remain in the EU.

Plus - if they did it to take back control - wouldn't they coin a made up phrase in Irish? Eiran sli amach?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 08/05/2018 16:25

Esther Webber
@estwebber
Govt defeat: Peers vote 298 to 227 for an amendment meaning the UK cannot be prevented from replicating EU law or continuing to participate in EU agencies after Brexit

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 08/05/2018 16:27

Andrew Adonis
@Andrew_Adonis
Lords motion just carried is entirely pointless - giving Govt power it already has to remain in EU agencies. Just tactic to delay Lords getting to key vote on continued membership of Single Market

DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 16:29

The thing that gets me about 'Irexit' is that ... it's such a fucking stupid word! of course they're not going to do it.

the problem is there are an awful lot - dare I say a majority - of people living in England who really know fuck all about the rest of the world (and then have the brass neck to laugh at American insularity). Just look at the fucking morons who thought (and, despite being corrected still spout) that "Ireland" is part of the UK - the "Southern" bit of "Northern" Ireland. It would be slightly less worthy of the sarcasm bazooka if it weren't for the fact that so many Brexiteers bang on about "the Empire" without having the faintest clue about any of the countries, cultures, religions and histories it encompasses.

Even now - with wall to wall articles available for free, how many Brexiteers have actually bothered to educate themselves about the GFA, and why it's pivotal in the requirement for the UK vis a vis the customs union.

I think we need to start a rumour that there's a giant EU underground worm about to emerge for it's 100 year feed, and it's targeting the UK. Luckily, with all that spare space research capacity that's just become available, we can build 3 rescue arks for the entire (white) UK population to save itself by travelling to another planet. As long as we are assured of a decent haircut when we get there....

Mistigri · 08/05/2018 16:37

UK cannot be prevented from ... continuing to participate in EU agencies after Brexit

I am not really following due to work commitments, but ... what? What will prevent the UK continuing to participate in EU agencies is Brexit, surely?

DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 16:50

giving Govt power it already has to remain in EU agencies.

If those agencies permit the UKs membership.

As the Galileo project suggests, the default EU position will be UK:Out

Which is surely what the Brexiteers wanted ?

DGRossetti · 08/05/2018 16:55

Incidentally, I caught a bit of World at One today (and I want praise for keeping it on after hearing IDS try and lecture the UK about "how export works". If anyone's interested, the trick is to imagine the UK is exporting IDS using a large trebuchet ...)

They quizzed Dominic Grieve about BoJos comments and the position in cabinet generally, and seemed far less aggressive and what about the will of the people than they have been in the past. Not sure if it's a sea change or reflecting a different live audience between lunchtime and breakfast ?

Either way, he was quite unequivocal - and unchallenged - when state Brexit was the biggest peacetime crisis this country had faced for 350 years. Seems to run slightly counter to the attitude that some outlets seem to pursue which place Brexit on a part with Royal hairstyles.