Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

Election data @ election_data
Wards in Sheffield Hallam, 2018 elections
(2014 in brackets):
CON 20% (11%)
LAB 18% (23%)
LD 52% (38%)
UKIP 0% (21%)
GRN 10% (7%)

Jared O'Mara / Former Nick Clegg constituency

Wards in Peterborough, 2018 elections
(2014 figures in brackets)
CON 35% (38%) -3
LAB 35% (44%) -9
LD 12% (5%) +7
UKIP 5% (12%) -7
GRN 4% (2%) +2
OTH 9%
Labour majority of 607 votes in 2017

Wards in Oxford West and Abingdon, 2018 elections
(2014 figures in brackets)
CON 15% (20%)
LAB 34% (30%)
LD 42% (34%)
GRN 9% (17%)
LD majority of 616 over the Conservatives in 2017

Wards within Southport constituency, 2018 (Con maj of 2,914)
(2014 in brackets)
Con 31% (20%)
Lab 31% (14%)
LD 33% (35%)
UKIP 2% (26%)
Greens 3% (5%)

Wards within Derby North, Lab majority of 613
(2017 vote share in brackets)
Con 39% (44.4)
Lab 34% (48.5)
LD 22% (4.6)
UKIP 4% (2.4)
GRN 1% (DNS)
11.4% swing from Lab to Tory since 2014

Chris Williamson constituency.

Wards within Derby South, Lab majority of 11,248
(2017 share in brackets)
Con 25% (33.5)
Lab 39% (58.3)
LD 12% (2.7)
UKIP 18% (4.4)
GRN 1% (1)
8.3% swing from Lab to Tory since 2014

Theresa May, as Home Secretary, threatened that Scots might uniquely not be allowed dual nationality with the UK if Scotland voted for independence, so who knows what rules she might choose to change regarding dual nationality

Going back to 2016, there were a few discussions about Brexit which were dismissed with a tinkly laugh and patronising "there, there dear" by the (now strangely absent) brexiteers.

One was that the UK would (out of spite) make it impossible to hold UK and and EU country citizenship.

Another was the introduction of ID cards.

It speaks volumes that while absolutely fuck all has been actually signed into law about Brexit in 2018, those two "fantasies" are closer to reality than anything else. Certainly a trade agreement.

Leavers have already twigged that. It would be good to get a Brexiteers view on things, but the poor lambs aren't engaging anymore. Seems they're not as popular as they thought they were.

(Did anyone ever see "Private Schultz" from the early 1980s, with the incomparable Ian Richardson ? There's a scene in the early post war - 1948 - where they have to bury a German at sea. There's a brief discussion where they try and work out the ceremonials. Someone suggests wrapping the body in a German flag ....

You can't get German flags right now. They're not very popular .....

DGRs skewed SOH )

from Robert Peston https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-has-undermined-britain-for-over-100-years-1.3486305?mode=amp

Which bit of "It's not a border with Ireland that the UK is creating, it's a border with the EU" do the Brexiters. Not. Get?

Tanith Anyone born to British parents (full citizenship, not the 2nd class ex-colony type) is automatically British, wherever they are born
Maybe they meant that naturalisation on top of that is meaningless
Or they were ignorant of their own rules

Germany doesn't give citizenship just for being born there, but for countries like the US, which iirc still does automatically grant citizenship in such cases (except for detainees) , British naturalisation wouldn't negate this .

However, naturalisation of originally non-British citizens can be reversed in certain circumstances, if the naturalisation was when they were adults and they later commit very serious crimes such as terrorism.
(other countries have similar rules)

The Times view: Fear of Jeremy Corbyn-led government prompts tough EU line on Brexit

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fear-of-corbyn-prompts-tough-eu-line-on-brexit-lrcmwgvlx

"concerns over Labour's economic policies" are the main reason for the EU's insistence on a "tough level playing field mechanism" in a future deal after Britain leaves.

These concerns are over state subsidies and a return to public ownership of key UK industries,
which they fear could lead to a situation where the UK under a Labour Government could "steal a competitive advantage by subsidizing manufacturing industries"

< Then they think Corbyn misunderstands / plans to ignore the Single Market rules.

iirc Germany & some other E27 invest much more in state subsidies than the UK, but follow the rules re competition.
Some also have bigger state sector, but they pay a fair market price for new nationalisations and again observe the competition rules

What the Single Market would prevent Corbyn doing, is nationalising without market price compensation >

countries like the US, which iirc still does automatically grant citizenship in such cases

You can be an American citizen if you are born in an aeroplane that happens to be flying over American airspace at the time you are born! I wouldn't suggest taking them up on it, though - it means you'll have to file your taxes every single year - even if you never live in America!

^iirc Germany & some other E27 invest much more in state subsidies than the UK, but follow the rules re competition.
Some also have bigger state sector, but they pay a fair market price for new nationalisations and again observe the competition rules^
I wish someone would get this into JC's thick skull - that he can do everything he wants within the EU. Maybe if he understood that the holy grail of nationalised trains are not outwith his reach even in the SM, he might be able to take on a stance more reflective of his support base.

I do support the idea of nationalised trains... but I'd rather be an EU citizen with privatised trains than outside the EU with no trains running because there is no money and no where to go.... and the tracks have been ripped up in the looting...and the stations burned down.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/05/local-elections-brexit-little-comfort-right-or-left

The mass defection of the Ukip vote to the Tories in Leave areas could store up huge problems for Theresa May, placing the prime minister under even more pressure to deliver the kind of clean Brexit that her new backers, the ex-Ukippers, crave.

“The vote that is helping to buoy up Theresa May’s popularity is very much a Leave vote,” Curtice told the BBC.
“If the Conservatives are going to hang on to that vote, they are going to have to deliver a Brexit that, broadly speaking, appeals to the sympathies and instinct of Leave voters.”
…
But for both parties, Thursday’s elections above all revealed just how much of British politics is being refracted through the prism of Brexit.
…
the Tories must work out how to appease their increasingly hardline support (70% of Tory voters are now Leave supporters compared with 30% of Labour ones,
according to polling analyst Rob Ford).

That's why May & the non-ideological Tories keep shying away from the obvious Single Market EEA / EFTA type solution.
It would minimise economic damage - but most of that 70% would regard it as a sellout and might well abstain, or vote for UKIP / BNP

Oxford West and Abingdon, 2018 elections
Only a handful of OxWAb wards had elections.

LD majority of 616 over the Conservatives in 2017
He's wrong - it was 816, overturning a previous majority in the region of 9500. The Greens standing down no doubt helped - for the past 20 years or so they have consistently gained a couple of thousand votes.

The Tories kept demonising the EU, whipping up nationalism and spouting fanciful promises, all because their policies on the economy, public services, austerity etc didn't appeal to sufficient voters

but they still wanted to give tax cuts to the wealthy

Now they are having to deliver or lose those voters - but they can't, because they were lying

"Tanith Anyone born to British parents (full citizenship, not the 2nd class ex-colony type) is automatically British, wherever they are born
Maybe they meant that naturalisation on top of that is meaningless
Or they were ignorant of their own rules
"

They may have changed the rules since regarding being automatically British, however I was definitely told at the time that it was no proof I was British. I was not given a British passport until I married.

My mum was furious. Those naturalisation papers cost her a lot of money at the time - money that, as a new mum, she could ill afford.

I don't get it. If we have a hard brexit then there is no way that between 2019 and 2022 we won't go through the kinds of hardship. suffering. economic decline/ mass unemployment and subsequent soaring crime rates - plus further pressure on - and perhaps the complete collapse of - the NHS, that there is no way the tories will get back in in 2022. If they are worried about losing an election 4 years in the future - then they are doing the exact wrong thing to circumvent it, in order to pander the extreme right wing in the here and now.
If they're worried about losing power now then that is entirely on them. They just have to not trigger a no confidence vote in TM - the FTPA will see to the rest. Then they can fight 2022 on whatever the issues of the day are - and not on having delivered what (some) people wanted back in 2016 .

In fact - if hard brexit and ensuing chaos is what we end up going through - rather than looking at reelection they will be facing massive enquiries and maybe even trials for the illegal stuff they have done that they are currently pushing under the carpet.

So what exactly are they hanging on for?

They may have changed the rules since regarding being automatically British, however I was definitely told at the time that it was no proof I was British. I was not given a British passport until I married.

I think you have to go the embassy and specially register a British person born abroad. (though I would imagine an army base would know that - and even be set up for it.) If you weren't on the foreign births register you wouldn't be recognised.
As a Brit born abroad your rights are slightly different - if you were married to a non-British person (or another British person born abroad) and you had your children outside of the UK then they would not be automatically granted citizenship. Whereas a British born parent passes on British citizenship no matter where they are in the world.
Were your parents definitely born in Britain? If you're from an army family- maybe you fell through that loophole?

there is no way the tories will get back in in 2022.
Oh, I don't know. Some Tory voters seem remarkably dense and would vote for a stuffed donkey if one stood.

Wouldn't a British Army base count as UK territory?

Oh, I don't know. Some Tory voters seem remarkably dense and would vote for a stuffed donkey if one stood.

I agree - but they'll lose the ukip voters they are so desperately trying to court (I shudder to think what party will emerge that they will vote for - though some of them may just go labour.)
And they will lose all their moderates.
And then we have to take into account their ageing membership coupled with food shortages and a non functioning NHS... All you have to do is add in a cold snap and no one will be left to vote for them.

Brexit seems ever more an emotional & nationalistic issue for its supporters, which over-rides normal caution and economic self-interest … or at least until people experience hardship themselves.

Brexiters currently refuse to listen to any evidence that Brexit will make the country worse off.
In fact the hardcore just get even more fanatical.
They can't admit they have made a terrible mistake, that those leaders they trusted were also wrong and / or conmen

Politicians can't admit that they got it all wrong and because of that, let the public make a decision that risks serious damage to the country

imo, May & the Tory Brexiters are currently gambling that they have a better chance of blaming the EU for any economic crash or hardship
than hanging on to the 70% of their voters who are Leavers

I gather that internal party polls suggest that the 70% Tory Leavers, especially former Kippers, are less likely to be loyal to a govt that doesn't deliver the main red lines - no FOM or ECJ and the freedom to do trade deals -
than the 30% Tory Remainers are to one that delivers a hard Brexit.

Internal Labour polls also suggest that their 30% Leavers are less likely to stay loyal than the 70% Remainers.

Brexit is like the 18th century South Sea Bubble - half the people were conned and most of the other half didn't realise how bad it was

Maybe drifting OT, but how come it seems to be totally acceptable that Boris Johnson is undertaking international diplomacy through Fox News ... if nothing else it should highlight how little Theresa May counts for with the Trumpster

Deep sigh of frustration But this is where they need to start putting country before party. They should not be allowing what the leavers want to destroy the country's economy, our standard of life, and our standing in the world - just because they are afraid of losing the next election! There will be other elections!

I just... I just can't believe they would be so venal, short sighted and power hungry that they will deliberately crash the country in attempt to appease the (33% of the electorate) masses in the hope that when it inevitably goes tits up the said masses are stupid enough to blame someone else. Who the fuck wants to be the government of bankrupt, failed nation with a poor grip on the rule of law? Why would anyone want power that is so pointless and unstable? I know I shouldn't be surprised ... but I still can't quite believe that they are going to do this.

Sorry to rant - I know you all know this - but ARRGH!

Who the fuck wants to be the government of bankrupt, failed nation with a poor grip on the rule of law?

The music hall joke about the elephant dung sweeper springs to mind ...

Let me get this straight.

Ireland has undermined Britain and contaminated British politics for well over a hundred years.

I have to repeat that, because when I go all googly eyed and my jaw hits the floor I find my thinking process stops.

Ireland has undermined Britain and contaminated British politics for well over a hundred years.

The solution to the problems Ireland was apparently causing was always out there, not even hiding in plain sight. Irish leaders, peasants, writers, etc suggested it frequently (about every 50 years or so for several hundred years)...

I wouldn't suggest taking them up on it, though - it means you'll have to file your taxes every single year - even if you never live in America!

Only if your annual income reaches a certain threshold (£90k iirc) and even then it is offset against taxes filed in the UK.

I would absolutely suggest having all the passports you are entitled to hold. Citizenship is a gift to future generations.

I really want to slap Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Sorry. Seething.

(Not sorry)

Icant
So what exactly are they hanging on for?

They are hoping that the horrors will be containable, that the property owner class will continue to prosper on the backs of the renter class, that those with even one foot on the bottom rungs of the social ladder will not risk losing the little they have, that their elderly core voters won't be affected, that rioting will break out involving classes of people who can be easily painted as "Other" - council estate youths and black youths and people the core Tory voter doesn't identify with such as Irish nationalists in NI, who are already alien - so that unrest and violence can be violently crushed.

A climate of 'them against us' is what the Tories thrive on. There is nothing in the prospect of unrest that the Tories fear.

The only thing that will give them pause is business coming out against Brexit. Business equals donations.