Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

Argentina ... country of silver

by that standard, England should be Ovatina ? Or Ovaltina ?

Having been born and lived here all my life, should my entitlement to British citizenship change, I'm not sure i could answer questions on my gps.

Pgm - know full name, date of birth and county of birth in uk
Pgf - know full name and date of birth. Unsure which of two UK counties he was born in.
Mgm and mgf - don't know full names nor dates of birth nor which ROI counties they were born in.

Mgm is the only gp remaining and her idea of dates is off. My dm grew up thinking her middle name and dob were different. Date of gps marriage was not the date of the parish records either. 🤦‍♀️

pain as far as I can see, it was the Mail and the Sun that carried the story trying to dig up dirt on Sajid Javid's family.
Interesting that it was those two papers...

Online, many on the right seem as angry about Javid's appointment as Home Sec as they wee about Khan becoming London Mayor

Javid was more of an invisible backroom pol before, hence low profile except for political wonks (like us ) who do detail.
Maybe it will be a wakeup call for him that there is still a lot of racism around that can even affect the wealthy & powerful, who may have thought they were beyond all that.

(in fairness, I don't know if Javid is one of those who think that because they rose high, from humble beginnings, anyone can)

Like BigChoc, our grandparents were born in the late 19th/early 20th century. Certainly events well beyond living memory.

I just took out the application form once more to check this grandparents' details section. It says:

"If both parents named below were born after 31st December 1982 OR were born abroad, we will also need the full name, town, country of birth and date of marriage of your grandparents (...).
Write these details in Section 8 or on a separate piece of paper. ..."

Not only don't we have a clue about my DW's grandparents in any such detail (see upthread), I wouldn't even be able to provide these details for my own side. I never knew my mother and never had any contact with her family. I could just about do it for my dad's side, as I've looked into it on the Ancestry website and he was an obsessive keeper of family marriage, birth and death certificates.

This is just a standard UK Passport Application form I got from the Post Office a couple of weeks ago and this Section 4 has to be completed:

"if you are applying
-for your first British passport, [as in our case]
-to replace a British passport that has been lost, stolen or damaged,
-for a British passport for a child under 16, or
-to extend a British passport."

So even if you are British but have foreign grandparents, make sure your passport is never lost, stolen or damaged, or you'll end up having to research your family tree!

I have no idea why they should want this to extend a British passport. Surely the fact that you have one is enough to obviate the need for this further information.

Worrying that the EU, including the RoI may have run out of patience and June - when the European Council next meet - will be the deadline for the Uk to agree the Withdrawal Agreement

Without the WA, there will be no transition, just a crash out on 29 March 2019.
imo, now at least a 50% probability - too little time for Parliament to change things

The UK side still seem to be assuming October, but it makes sense for the EU to decide that if there is almost no possibility of a WA and hence transition, then they want to give their businesses & infrastructure as much clarity and time as possible to prepare,
i.e. to avoid some clinging on in the hope it'll all go away

RTE: Fear and Loathing: How the eurosceptics have blown Brexit talks wide open

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0505/960472-how-the-eurosceptics-have-blown-the-brexit-talks-open/

The victorious challenge against Theresa May by hardline eurosceptics this week is a decisive moment in the negotiations.
"This is an inflection point," says a source close to the British negotiating team.
"This is no longer about technical solutions. It has become a matter of high politics."
…
Having tried – and failed – to pursue a customs union dressed up as a customs partnership, desperate pro-European Tories might decide to bite the bullet and vote for the out-in-the-open customs union amendment in the House of Commons.
…
A British source has reservations. "It’s not an option anyone in Number 10 really likes.
Theresa May won’t want to be defeated in the House of Commons on a flagship issue."

In reality, with the customs partnership option apparently gone, there is precious little else for the UK to offer.

If the hard Brexiteers seize control of the ship of state and steer it towards the "no deal" rocks, some in Dublin will regard that with grim stoicism.

"Let them threaten, let them go through that," says one exasperated official.
"Let us all know that that’s what’s on offer.
But let us do that now, and not in October.
Fine, pull it all down, say we’re going to walk away with no deal, put in Jacob Rees-Mogg and then we’ll all make our decisions."

Well once no one is able to renew, replace or extend a passport, nor get one in the first place, no UK citizen will be able to go to foreign places and see that life is better there...as I did in the 1970s, encountering nice food, coffee, chocolate and cigarettes for the first time. Happy hedonistic times....

Hasenstein You've scared the crap out of me

If BOTH parents were born abroad - only my mum was.
I hope they don't extend this to both and especially to those wanting to renew a passport after 10 years
This is outrageous

I think I'll have to apply for a German passport, just to have one from a civilised country that won't keep retroactively changing the bloody rules

Otherwise, I could end up not being able to leave Germany, or at least unable to enter the Uk
My worry is in sitting a German exam, with both visual & hearing handicaps, plus an Aspies problem of dealing with stress, plus being crap at languages and only learning German at age 31

Maybe not able to stay in Germany either
I was presuming I'd anyway get an Auslander ID that has permission to remain, as I did on contracts in the 1980s and 1990s
but although just a few Euros, that requires a UK passport to obtain & renew

A passport or National ID card is essential to be able to live anywhere, to rent or buy, to receive salary or pension, to hire a car, go on even an internal flight …

I've just browsed the online a-plication , without going as far as uploading a photo (my passport is only 1 year old)
No mention about parents or GPs
but I did click that I have a British passport already and it has not been damaged, lost or stolen
Maybe the bad news only comes at the end, after paying the fee ?

Regarding the HoL vote on single marker membership,
You can contact the Labour Lords through this link

www.open-britain.co.uk/email_the_lords?utm_campaign=email_99_1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=in

and urge them to do the right thing

You can contact the Labour Lords

Or, alternatively, you can just give up. I have. Que sera sera, and all our piety and wit will change not one jot.

Whatever happens will, and will take more than the few years I have left to undo. If marching against tuition fees in the 80s, and the Iraq war in the 2000s, and Brexit in 2017 has taught me anything, it's that I would have been better off digging the nuclear bunker that bit deeper.

I suspect the UK may crash out on 29 March 2019,
then after a few weeks economic meltdown, apply to join EFTA as an emergency

• instead of applying now, having an orderly transition, minimum economic or other disruption

However, once business realises thee will be no deal - if this hasn't happened by June / October and the EU has stopped trade talks
then the probable business exodus and sterling crash may concentrate a few minds in the Tory grey suits

I think businesses have given up with government (not a good place to be) and have made or are making their own plans depending on their own circumstances.

Sort of writ large what we do when we go shopping and take our own wine carrier and paper mushroom bag (because 3 weeks out of four Sainsburys never manage).

It's the ultimate "sort yourself out mate and fuck everyone else " place that Conservatism ends in.

It's often been said that the space race pushed the US decades ahead in miniaturisation. I think Brexit will push the rest of the the world into finding ways around the UK.

^Otherwise, I could end up not being able to leave Germany, or at least unable to enter the Uk
My worry is in sitting a German exam, with both visual & hearing handicaps, plus an Aspies problem of dealing with stress, plus being crap at languages and only learning German at age 31^

You might be pleasantly surprised if you took a language exam. I am bilingual and definitely C2 for writing French but think of myself as only C1 for speaking. Friends of mine have started doing the language tests now (for nationality applications) and I've been shocked at their results which have been a category or two above where I'd have put them. One I'd have put at B1 got a C1 for her oral! Her French is OK but she is miles away from being bilingual.

I think I will probably apply for a permanent EU resident's card once work stops being crazy busy. My main concern is that in April next year I will be unable to travel because I would have no guarantee of being allowed back into the country.

I think businesses have given up with government

I think that affected businesses are now quietly getting on with contingency plans. My employer is building a large new plant in Poland, though it isn't talking about it to anyone. I'm sure it is very far from being the only company to do this.

Mother is there such a thing as a Permanent RESIDENT card in Belgium? (I thought this was coming form the EU legislation butbhappy to be corrected)
And could you apply for citizenship instead if you really want to stay there? (Or you DH is and you can stay as his spouse etc...)

Plenty of people are doing just that here. Applying for citizenship just to cover their arse :(

MO4D no it's not what I think will happen, but it's a risk that as a professional who travels a lot I should try to mitigate if I can.

If there is a crash out and I'm in the UK on 29th April I could require a Schengen visa before I can travel home. I don't think it's likely but it's not impossible. Of course if there is a crash out my permanent EU resident's card will no longer be valid but I think there is a reasonable chance that it would be honoured for an interim period.

Sorry, that should read 29th March.

Also, there must be a right to an EU residence card in Belgium? You can apply for a permanent card after 5 years of residence. I don't anticipate any problems (in France) as I still have my old 10 year resident's card that I was issued in the 1990s when a card was still required. I still use it as ID for picking up parcels or when hiring skis, even though it expired 10 years ago!