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Brexit

Westminstenders: From Russia with Love

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/03/2018 21:11

Things just got scary.

The colony of US puppet state or a vassel state of the EU?

Why not just let market forces take their course and let Russia buy the UK?

How did we get to stories of spies and mafia who buy politicians?

Just who are our enemies and allies?

Won't someone think of the effect on house prices in Salisbury?

Try not to don your foil hat, brace yourself and resist shouting 'money laundering too loud'.

More turbulence ahead.

Brexit still seems like such a cracking idea doesn't it?

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31
OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 14/03/2018 21:56

woman Steve Bullock said we're in a time of constitutional crisis. Also the phrase used when discussing the possibility of Trump firing Mueller.

DrivenToDespair · 14/03/2018 21:57

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

woman11017 · 14/03/2018 22:00

Bullock's good isn't he pain Yup, I'd agree.

woman11017 · 14/03/2018 22:12

It's not like RT is a propagandist news channel or anything.

Westminstenders: From Russia with Love
MichaelBendfaster · 14/03/2018 23:37

Thanks Red. Placemat king.

DrivenToDespair · 15/03/2018 05:35

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

lonelyplanetmum · 15/03/2018 06:10

Just saw this and thought it interesting that some basic information exposing Russian bots is getting quite a few views.

I often feel two ( or twenty) steps behind some of the regulars on here. I don't really understand how creating chaos in other countries benefits Russia? I can see it would if it were a neighbouring country in chaos that they wished to annex. But how does chaos here or in the US help achieve Russian goals? Is it because if they did plan to make incursions into somewhere like the Ukraine we would be less able to support the victim country?

Does chaos here make it easier to assassinate spies? Not really- that could happen regardless of political chaos in government.

Does chaos elsewhere give a trade advantage to Russia ? I don't really understand the advantage that chaos confers.

Interestingly there's a lot of denial and disbelief about Russian interference in the comments on this link. I had a similar conversation with a Tory Mum friend who point blank refused to believe there was any bot influence on the referendum or elections here.

https://www.facebook.com/actdottv/videos/770297793160789/

Peregrina · 15/03/2018 06:16

There was an interesting piece in either the Guardian or the Observer the other day, about how the Tory party is in hock to the Russians, yet the press made a song and dance about Corbyn and links to a Czech one-time spy.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/03/2018 06:51

lonely this is a cut and paste job from a previous thread

Bill Browder said that the Kremlin is so corrupted and has abused the economy with its kleptocracy to such an extent that there's no hope really of it being able to win an actual war with the West, or even to grow its economy to match its rivals, and that they instead are seeking to bring the rest of the world down to their level by attacking the blocs such as the EU and NATO as it's much easier to pick off vulnerable countries than it is larger coalitions.

And because they don't want a physical war (there was a skirmish recently between private Russian forces and the US army in Syria where the US army thoroughly beat the Russian forces), they seek to cause mayhem and undermine democracies through different means - through gas supplies, infiltrating officials in different countries, creating economic leverage over people, the internet - that are relatively low cost and can be denied so it doesn't escalate into a war that they can't win.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/03/2018 06:56

As an aside, I’m still feeling disoriented from last night’s dream where Boris Johnson and John Bercow came round and after I berated Johnson for his incompetence, dog whistling etc, bercow and I went to get a coffee Blush

thecatfromjapan · 15/03/2018 07:11

That is an amazing video, lonelyplanetmum I LOVE the antidotes (engagement! vote like your life depends on it!) that they propose.

I'll bet this isn't answering your question, lonelyplanetmum. I'll bet I'm not going to say anything you don't already know.

But I'm going to have a go - just to encourage other, wiser, people than me to step in. Because it's a great question. And i've realised that a lot of people don't know that much about modern Russia.

Well, part of it is asymmetric warfare. If you imagine international relations to be a kind of state of anarchy, with lots of nations struggling to maintain and extend their position, how does a nation with a relatively small GDP (Russia has a relatively small GDP) maintain or even extend its position, integrity and existence against other, larger nations?

One way is by building alliances - and here, you need to have interests you can share, trade, etc. Generally, nations opt for stability and relations. Another thing you can do is actually go to war, in the old sense of war - very risky, especially if you are relatively poor and also war carries all sorts of risks in the modern world - not least because there are lots of relationships governing international relations, so an act of aggression has consequences beyond any immediate act of aggression.

Asymmetric warfare covers acts of aggression that are waged by relatively powerless nations against others - such as 'terrorism', and forms of warfare that fly below the radar of what counts as war in the old sense of the term.

That, in part, explains why Russian aggression (the troll farms, etc.) takes the form it does - but doesn't explain the why.

The 'why' is more complicated. Partly, it's because that poisoning of social media - and mainstream media within Russia - has been going on a long time within Russia itself. So it's a pre-existing format. The poisoning of media has been incredibly effective within Russia. As people keep saying, Russia is a very corrupt kleptocracy. How do you get a population to go along with a corrupt kelptocracy? Well, one way is to create the idea of a 'state under threat', and the idea that people have to rally around 'the nation's interests' in the face of an enemy.

There's been a fair bit of that in Russia, war with Chechnya for example. But very effective has been the silencing of an oppositional media.

One way Russia has silenced an oppositional media has been brutal: state control and actual deaths of journalists. Another way has been to simply poison social media: filling it with fake news, propaganda, trolls, whatever - and making it just such a crap, confusing, vile place that nobody can actually effectively use it.

If people can't effectively communicate, it becomes very hard to develop ideas about opposition, develop strategies for opposition and dissent, and just organise. without an effective opposition, it's so much easier to govern people. And people are human - if you have people who are just depresses, switched off from participation in politics, who actually believe there is just no point, or are utterly cynical to the point of non-participation - then you have won an incredibly important victory for the status quo.

So, in part, all of this is the exportation of strategies that have been used in Russia - and in expat communities and in areas like Ukraine - for a long time.

But it is also an aspect of Russia's foreign policy, too. I have to apologise here, because there are actual names for some of these programmes, and I can't remember them. Smile

Part of Russia's foreign policy goes back to that basic idea about how a nation with a small GDP can thrive in the free for all of international relations. One way is to build relations. There are slight problems here.
International relations with powers like the US might come with strings:
a demand by the US to be allowed to buy gas at a cheap price, or to be able to invest in Russia, or (sometimes) the demand that Russia follow rules about human rights internally, and follow a particular foreign policy outside its borders (eg. no invading places).

This is a bit tricky for Russia: maybe they went to sell natural resources at a higher price, maybe they don't want to follow the US model on humna rights, maybe they don't want to follow the foreign policy demands, maybe - and this one is quite crucial - they don't want to follow the investment protocols (the kleptocracy likes to keep control of the money and foreign investors don't like suddenly having all their investments vanish and discovering 'the rule of civil law' is pretty shaky).

So a foreign policy based on relationships has complications.

There is a also an idea that it has to be proved that Russia is something other - better - than liberal democracy. That message is important for its domestic policy but it has implications for its international dealings.

The upshot is that Russia seems to have opted for a tactic of destabilising other nations.

If other nations are a bit knoecked off balance, it proves the idea that western liberal democracy is a flawed programme and is in imminent danger of collapse (you'll notice, here, the direct similarity with a lot of the Leave rhetoric which bangs on about the EU being a flawed project, in imminent danger of collapse).

This shores up the internal message to the domestic population of Russia (Hey folks, Russia is great, there's no alternative. Get back to work.) as well as sucking energy from the other nation, making them less likely to pursue foreign adventures of their own. If everything's going bonkers in your country, you have less opportunity to worry about, or attend to, the sphere of international relations.

There is also a very strong message from Russia - directed towards its internal electorate but also perhaps governing its international relations - that Russia is a power that is unfairly excluded from a global hegemony. Globalisation is a terrible force, a cabal essentially, that acts against Russia, is morally wrong in that it punishes small nations and strangles native expression, and is inherently unstable. It is part and parcel of the stranglehold Western liberal democracy holds on the world.

You'll recognise this one from the Referendum, too. And from people like George Galloway

So Russia is morally superior in supporting nativist, often right-wing, movements that are trying to assert themselves authentically against this hegemony.

Of course, it's result is to destabilise pre-exisiting global relatinships and to weaken structures - such as the EU and even the US - which currently exclude Russia, or have limitied relationships with Russia. And I guess the hope is that, when those relationships are re-organised and re-established, the deals made and the relatinships formed with Russia, will be on better terms.

There's an actual, proper name for this policy. And i can't remember it. I think it starts with 'p'. Grin

But why go for troll farms and making social media so horrible?

Well, that's divide and rule. A nation that has problems domestically is far less likely to pursue an aggressive foreign policy - whether that foreign policy is one of expansion or simply maintaining it existing relationships in a firm way. Still less is it going to take on the role of 'world policeman', monitoring relations beyond its own interests.

What has been fascinating about the whole Russian thing is how effective it appears to have been - though that is really up to historians of tomorrow to assess. Who would have guessed that social media really was a platform by which you could attack the fabric of another nation? And who would have guessed that going for cynicism, getting people to switch off from the democratic process, etc, could be so effective?

Well, you could say that a nation that has found that effective internally might have guessed. But, actually, I don't think anyone actually did.

Obviously, having a destabilised nation is effective. Breaking up a rival economic power, such as the EU, or even just destabilising it, has an obvious advantage. Destabilising a major power, especially one that is known to take an active role in international relations, and getting it to turn its attention towards domestic matters, has an obvious advantage.

Actually managing to install a President who is very friendly towards your nation's interests - whether that is by being happy to allow you to maintain the (corrupt civil law) internal status quo in your nation, refusing to impose agreed sanctions, brokering new, favourable deals, turning a blind eye to your foreign policy ambitions (even if that means existing international relatinships are going to be serioiusly re-ordered) - is a massive victory. Really amazing.

thecatfromjapan · 15/03/2018 07:24

By the way, can I just give a shout out to Red here.

I notice that the 'antidotes' to the toxins of on-line propaganda proposed in LonelyPlanetMum's video - which should be a sticky on social media sites like MN - are those that Red has been banging on about:

*Resist political nihilism and cynicism - whose interests does it serve if people become disengaged from politics? (Spoiler: authoritarian interests.)
*Get involved. Get as involved as you can. Read. Follow news. Educate yourself. Think about what your interests are. Think about the interests of groupings, individuals, political groups you engage with.
*Protect the centreground. Having extreme political views is OK - but actually, all those liberals may well have had a very good point about the necessity of a centreground for any meaningful democratic politics to actually take place. If it's under attack - why? Whose interests does it serve for it to be annihilated/weakened? What happens if it dissapears? (Spoiler: one effect (and only one - there are lots of others) is that lots of people disengage from politics.)

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/03/2018 07:28

cat Star

Cailleach1 · 15/03/2018 07:35

"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge."

This is one of the quotes attributed to Stephen Hawking.

I immediately thought of the many Brexiteers pre and post ref on the airwaves and media.

Nigel Farage on Andrew Neil saying how UK could unilaterally apply tariffs on the EU. And much more.

Penny Mordaunt on Marr sticking with the lie about Turkey and no British veto on a country joining. Despite being given 3 or 4 chances by Marr to retract.

The 350million for the NHS. Johnson, Gove and the rest. They gave a front of illusions.

They sounded pretended like they knew what they were talking about. But it was just propaganda.

thecatfromjapan · 15/03/2018 07:38

I'm in actual awe at the succinctness of Pain's explanation.

It's times like that that I'm just aware at the difference between myself and people who do politics. (Pain and the politician she's paraphrasing).

There is such a real skill - and a really important skill - in being able to communicate complex ideas simply and succinctly.

Peregrina · 15/03/2018 07:39

The 350million for the NHS.

Mind you, I think they may not have got away with that one. I was reading at the weekend that one thing Tory canvassers get asked repeatedly on the doorstep is what's happened to the £350 million for the NHS. I know we are constantly reassured by Leavers on these threads that they didn't take much notice of this promise, but a significant proportion of the electorate appear to have done.

woman11017 · 15/03/2018 07:45

cat Pain Flowers great posts thanks!

Talkstotrees · 15/03/2018 07:47

Brilliant explanation cat, thank you. I’m so grateful to you all for taking the time to write in such detail. I may quote you elsewhere if that’s okay?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 15/03/2018 07:48

cat i am in awe at how comprehensive your post is! It is much more useful as a explainer if what’s happening and in truth, I was embarrassed at how little detail my had in comparison Grin

RedToothBrush · 15/03/2018 07:53

Cat has it nailed.

Its all about power at home in Russia first. Liberal democracy is a threat to authoritarian rule.

So you stiffle free thought.

Since liberal democracy is a concept that can not be contained within borders or by censorship (in the same way that extremism ultimately can't) you attack trust and belief in liberal democracy to protect yourself.

The EU is an institution designed to promote and protect liberal democracy. This is why Farage hates it so much.

We have seen massive assaults on our democracy within the uk over the past 2 years. We are unaware of the danger here. Its not so much Russia, but our own stupidity and lack of political understanding which is being exploited.

Russia wants to prove that liberal democracy doesn't work. We are doing a lot to assist in that.

Our system is broken atm. We need to wake up to that, rather than keep it all about who is going to win the next election. The focus on that misses the point. No government is going to improve things for anyone if they don't listen and they continually are driven by silencing tactics to 'win' an argument.

Good government isn't about winning the argument. Its about finding solutions to problems by researching them, discussing possible options and how that will effect everyone in society and then implementing the best one.

The desire for ideological purity and the lack of engagement/input into the process from certain groups, are the two major issues in British politics right now.

The forces that work to silence, bully, sideline and dominate in politics are the ones which are the poison.

An argument should stand alone on its own merits.

In someways, I think I feel if we don't work that out at some point during the Brexit process in someway, i'm not sure we will for a very long time.

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RedToothBrush · 15/03/2018 07:56

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
The ones who complain about "bullying" in the relatively gentle exit negotiations...

...seem to be those who sneer at "snowflakes" in other contexts.

Strange that.

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RedToothBrush · 15/03/2018 08:02

Tim Shipman @ shippersunbound
Anders Fogh Rasmussen fires warning shot at France: “anything short of full solidarity with the UK will be regarded as a victory for the Kremlin”

Indeed.

Thanks Corbyn.

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lonelyplanetmum · 15/03/2018 08:02

Cat thank you. That makes complete sense. So a significant,if not predominant, benefit is internal.As you say shoring up the internal message to the domestic population of Russia.

So it's still really ideological as Russian politics always seems to have been- an our system is better than yours message. It's for domestic control and ideology, rather than a strategy for economic or other gain in external relations. I hadn't factored that in at all and it makes such sense.

lonelyplanetmum · 15/03/2018 08:04

Absolutely 5x Star post. Thank you

RedToothBrush · 15/03/2018 08:08

Simon Hix @ simonjhix
Following the news this morning, I get the sense that, even if May had evidence that Russia did the attack, her threats aren’t credible because of the dependence of the Conservatives and the City on Russian money with inevitable links to Putin. And Putin knows that

This.

Also see Jeremy Corbyn's criticism of May and how it links to Russia.

An inflitration of BOTH left and right. Hello Arron Banks, I see you. I ask you, what was the purpose of UKIP?

Why the demonisation of Nick Clegg, Anna Soubry and David Lammy.

All individuals for whom ideological purity is not essential. Nor is loyalty to the party. All willing to work with others.

Funny that.

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