Aibu to despair

[DorothyL]

Talking to some people tonight who are fluent in European languages, widely travelled, worldliwise -

and they said Barnier's stubbornness and the EU's tone is ruining everything.

Ffs

I give up

At least I know how to spell Keir bear . Pleased you acknowledge the whole point of his legalise is to provide obfuscation rather than insight.

I wasn't conflating EU membership with Euro participation but responding to a specific query from Icantreach regarding the added complexities of departure for Euro countries. This is very much a pertinent question in the context of Indyref as the Indyref1 proposals were to retain Sterling but with some woolly notion of participation in a UK rather than a rUK Central Bank and also join the EU in the post Euro World. It didn't look particularly plausible then and it looks even less so now.

I don't remember anything about Scotland hoping to join the EU in a post Euro world. As I recall they wanted to retain the pound and create a sterlingzone that ran alongside the Eurozone. Which is does anyway. It would have been an entirely internal complication about splitting banks but retaining the same currency - and wouldn't have touched the EU or the Euro at all.

Scotland choosing to go independent and keep the pound has nothing in common with Italy choosing to leave the eurozone and create their own currency/ revert to lira. Other than the fact that they're about money - that's literally it...

However I repeat my question from yesterday evening - any idea of how Brexit is actually going to work? A tangible plan that doesn't involve as yet uninvented technology or asking the EU to break their own rules (which we helped write) and dismantle the single market for our convenience?
I really will shut up if you have answers. I don't want Britain to become a failed nation. I really do want everything to be OK.

If you don't have any answers... do you think that maybe there's a chance that you've made the wrong choice? After all - you can't claim that you knew what you were voting for if you can't tell me what the solutions are over eighteen months after the referendum.

The Italians don't appear to be proposing leaving the Eurozone or recreating their own currency. It is more about parallel Central Banking than currency which is exactly the issue with "splitting" / proposing joint control of the Bank of England.

At least I know how to spell Keir

Pleased you acknowledge the whole point of his legalise is to provide obfuscation rather than insight

Correcting spelling mistakes appears to be your only contribution to this thread, howabout because you certainly don't provide any insight either

The Italians don't appear to be proposing leaving the Eurozone or recreating their own currency. It is more about parallel Central Banking than currency which is exactly the issue with "splitting" / proposing joint control of the Bank of England.

Uhuh - Ok - so they're not leaving the Eurozone and they're not leaving Europe. The EU is not falling apart. No one else is following us out. glad we've established that.

Now about that tangible plan for how Brexit is going to work without destroying the UK.....?

However again -quick google - no proposals about a parallel central bank since mid 2017. It seems they're not proposing this either.

What is a parallel central bank. Never heard of this concept. Can someone explain!

And my point was the eurozone countries would find it harder to leave the EU.
Yes - I suppose Italy faffing around with a parallel banking system could be likened to the plans that Scotland keep the pound after indie ref (though some things I read did specifically mention a return to lira). But Scotland wanted to keep the pound and stay in the EU - i.e no change. Italy's involves a change and affects far more countries - it would not be an internal matter. But they would still keep the Euro, apparently.

any country wanting to come out of the EU whilst in the Eurozone is completely different to either Italy staying in Europe and having a parallel banking system or Scotland staying in Europe and keeping the pound.
A eurozone country leaving the EU would have to leave the eurozone...so why the fuck did you bring Italy into it - and specifically link to eurozone countries leaving the EU - if it turns out Italy has no proposals to leave the Euro? A complete red herring and a waste of time.

Following a referendum to leave, the government would then have to spend months if not years getting out of the euro and sorting out their banks before they could trigger article 50 - and then there would be another two years on top. By which time public opinion may well have changed. I'm pretty sure no other government will ever be stupid enough to trigger article 50 without all their ducks in a row after seeing the hash we've made of it - especially if it involves a change to currency.

So to go back to what surferjet said and I rebutted that other countries will follow us out if Brexit is a success... It will be much much harder for a country in the eurozone to leave the EU. They just won't do it. Suggesting a vague 'Parallel currency' to allow anyone to leave without hassle is just more pie in the sky thinking typical of the leave side.

what is a parallel currency?

How is brexit going to work?

Keep asking Olivia but the truth is there is no answer. It's just more shit spouted by the unicorn brigade.

Like all the parallel things Britain says they want.

Can't be under ECJ but we need the exact same arbitration system, so Britain wants one set up in parallel.

Can't be in single market, but we want pretty much exact same access, so Britain wants a parallel almost = single market system set up.

Can't have free movement of people, but want an almost identical access for our high skill & high skill EU people to move back & forth, so need a parallel (almost identical) people movement system.

And so on... services... medication... aviation. Britain hurtling from half-in to half-out. Woohoo (not).

@Icantreachthepretzels

Answer is it won't work. Because it won't happen. It will crumble from the weight of its own internal inconsistencies. Mutually exclusive objectives that can't be reconciled with drones and blockchain.

Answer is it won't work. Because it won't happen. It will crumble from the weight of its own internal inconsistencies. Mutually exclusive objectives that can't be reconciled with drones and blockchain.

Problem is, what will happen even if there is no Brexit?

I can't imagine any good outcome.

@MichaelBendfaster

Why? Things continue as is. Growth comes back because investment returns.

We try to reform Brussels with the help of Macron.

Olivia, I don't know if remaining is a political possibility. Is TM really going to back down and say 'We've changed our minds'? If she did, the Tory right would be on her like a pack of wolves.

There would presumably be a vote of no confidence. What happens next? JRM as PM? Boris Johnson? Gove? Rudd?

Labour government? Can't see it – and even if that happened, Corbyn would be happy to hoick us out.

Best/all I can envisage is a long, long drawn out process of fudges and delays, during which EU27 members from fruit pickers to brain surgeons will continue to piss off back home, food will get more expensive and scarce, travel will become more complicated and partisan violence in Ireland will increase.

@MichaelBendfaster

We need to see public sentiment move. As the things you describe become more apparent it should. It has started to already but the movement is not very strong.

When it does a second referendum will need to take place.

You've no doubt heard of the legislation passed in 2011 which requires a referendum for matters relating to the EU? If it doesn't get repealed in the Withdrawal Bill a second referendum is a requirement.

It may even be needed politically.

I otherwise agree that Westminster won't have the courage to cancel this idiocy.

Why? Things continue as is. Growth comes back because investment returns.

of course they do, if it’s cancelled we just pick up where we left off like nothing ever happened

@time4chocolate

Sarcasm noted and probably warranted.

So what do you think happens? Nige picks up a rifle?

Olivia, for me the problems are that I don't think public sentiment will shift enough, fast enough. Already the narrative is the 'bullying' EU are 'forcing' us into things or 'not allowing' us things. This will only become more entrenched as time passes and shit things happen, IMO. It is not helped by an 'opposition' who are at best ineffective.

I don't have the stomach for a second referendum, tbh.

@MichaelBendfaster

Can't say your point of view is wrong. I know it looks bleak.

I do hope I'm wrong, Olivia, believe me. I just can't really see a way out of it all.

There is no Brexit plan. The only way leavers would get what they want (hard border) would require the sacrifice of Northern Ireland.

Forget every thing else. On this point alone we are fucked. And rightly, the EU want it sorted out.

I think there will be a period of turmoil and hopefully a second referendum.

Yes @MichaelBendfaster I agree there is no clear path out of this yet. But it will come. It has to.

When I first came here 17 years ago my best friend told me this country was about loopholes. We'll find one.

When I first came here 17 years ago my best friend told me this country was about loopholes. We'll find one.

Trouble is, TM doesn't seem capable of even finding or exploiting a loophole. Her 'tactics' so far seem to consist of repeating the same impossible and self-contradictory demands, sprinkled with her soundbite du jour.

Everyone is looking for a 'fudge'. Some kind of holding pattern while the British public catch up with that facts

This is the traditional political approach. Avoid the big decision now wait till later.

The trouble is May hasn't got the political sense to work out a 'fudge'.