The Brexit Arms

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The Brexit thread.

By Brexiters, for Brexiters.

Remainers welcome, but gobshites & goadyfuckers are encouraged to take their business elsewhere.

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PS Lamy was v good.

NI Executive and Assembly? How would that have panned out. DUP numbers didn't even have enough for petition of concern. It would have not have had to have majority support from both nationalists and unionists. It would have been a normal vote count.

That Assembly election seems a lifetime ago. Mind you, the DUP have gone onto bigger and better things by May's invitation. They have in effect been granted a 'petition of concern' veto over Westminister!

Howabout also a lawyer, international tax as it happens. It would serve the UK ill if it were to breach the terms of an international treaty just at the point it wanted to be discussing lots of new international treaties.

It may seem that this is just nit-picking and a fudge will do. But as TIP points out, I am not sure I would want your approach in my contract negotiations.

Do you know what is becoming clear the EU is not a club. It's a prison and no one can escape. But if they wanted too Chuck someone out they would find a way.... two faced or what.

Your the ones telling us there is no way to so be this problem. Therefore your saying it is not possible to leave.So is the EU really a dictatorship ?

So be should be ..sort

BUT if the GFA never envisiged the UK leaving the EU then doesn't it follow the agreement should be amenable?

Yes. I can see what your saying and agree. But it does seem even the EU document that came out on Monday would have broken the GFA .
So even the EU thought it could be change.

No @mummmy2017 that's not what has transpired.

After almost two years of asking UKGOV what the UK wants and getting no response the EU submitted a proposal based on red lines expressed by May. No ECJ. Freedom for trade deals. No Freedom of movement. Leaving SM/CU. Etc.

The proposal is an FTA. An enhanced version of CETA which Canada has. It's the only option.

The GFA question is separate. The EU and in my view most rational people (including Theresa May who is on tape acknowledging this) know that an FTA necessitates border checks.

UKGOV has however stated there is a solution. Must be. Somewhere.

This position was agreed in the Phase 1 document signed on December 8 wherein the UK has agreed to propose solutions to the Irish border and to respect the GFA. If no solutions are forthcoming then the UK has essentially agreed to keep NI in the SM/CU. My view is UKGOV has also pretty much committed itself as well to remaining in SM/CU in the absence of a solution.

The NI problem is being pushed by Ireland. Not the EU.

If ever there were an example to demonstrate that EU states have maintained sovereignty and that the EU is democratic well this is it. Sure the sovereignty has been pooled but it doesn't mean individual states don't have a say. Even Ireland with a population of 4 million vs 500 million.

Yes. I can see what your saying and agree. But it does seem even the EU document that came out on Monday would have broken the GFA .

No, this isn't correct - the EU "fallback" position (pending some workable "invisible border" proposals from the UK) is that everything remains the same in Ireland: continued membership of the SM where necessary, and of the CU. The UK is angry about this because it would mean either a border in the Irish sea, or the whole of the UK remaining in the CU and at least partly in the SM.

The GFA is an international treaty that was ratified by an overwhelming majority of the Irish people on both sides of the border. It involved constitutional change in Ireland. I think I'm right in saying that any change to the treaty would require a referendum.

The GFA is an international treaty that was ratified by an overwhelming majority of the Irish people on both sides of the border.

The will of the people meets ... the will of the people. Not really sure why Brexiteers are so confused by this, after all they are sophisticated political beasts

I’m still mystified by the assertion that it would all have been different if we could have negiotiated our future trade agreement now.

Leavers truly are in some kind of parallel universe where the facts of the situation can be completely ignored.

Facts are horribly inconvenient to achieve Brexit. That's why one must lie to others and oneself if Brexit is to have a chance of getting done.

Which means that if we keep too the CM SM red lines for the UK. Then there is no other way that for the treaty to be altered. You have to see if we can't agree and no deal happens, then this has to be. As there will be a boarder

You’re really not getting this are you mummmy

No deal is not going to happen

Leaving SM/ CU is not going to happen

So walk us thru how the treaty gets amended and in what timeframe? In particular, what is your view on Ireland's proclivity to want a deal. And Northern Ireland's as well. Both would have a veto as far as I can see. And the UK has agreed to maintain the GFA in the joint report from Dec 8.

No deal ... I think we should all agree by now this is not realistic. The UK is not going to breach an intl treaty nor is the prospect of leaving a number of treaties realistic.

Over to you ...

@bearbehind

No I don't think she does. There's such a strong desire to see us leave that it seems to blind many to the realities of the UK's constraints.

As a side note I think I may need to revise my view that UKGOV know the consequences of what they're doing or indeed what they're doing.

Dotard David Davis still seems to think services are subject to tariffs ...

Looking on the bright side of things, I suppose we should be happy he now knows that we don't need to negotiate 27 separate trade deals with the EU27.

Sigh ...

Mummy you do understand that a 'no deal' would also result in the UK breaching the GFA/BA/peace agreement international treaty. Again, just as we are wanting to engage in new international treaties with all those other non-EU countries with whom we can already trade but with whom you seem to think we will be trading a great deal more.

To be clear I think 'no deal' is not going to happen, as TM also said at her last set piece speech.

@JWIM

Not to mention leaving a whole host of treaties the UK is a party to under the EU umbrella - eg about 20 or so aviation treaties without which planes stop flying to and from the UK. We need EU participation in these to extricate the UK.

So mummmy over to you on how you think the GFA is going to be renegotiated if Ireland (or NI Executive and Assembly) doesn't agree ...

I found the linked document very interesting as it sets out the facts about many facets of the current UK EU Brexit situation. For example, on p 68 there is a section on the 750 agreements that the UK would lose immediately we leave on a no deal basis. More importantly, even if there is a negotiated withdrawal there is nothing to require the other party to the agreement to extend the benefits to the UK as a 3rd country rather than an EU member state. Hoping this works.

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