Westminstenders: Break Up or Make Up?

[RedToothBrush]

The next week or so appears to be yet another crunch point (not that any of these crunch points have actually resolved anything so far).

The EU is set to outline the plan for Ireland. Which everyone thought had already been outlined and agreed already. And it had been admitted was legally binding.

Except apparently we don't want to do that, and we are now crying about how the EU want to break up Britain (nothing to do with England wanting to leave the EU and Scotland and NI wanting to stay in it of course).

Jeremy Corbyn has now apparently decided that the customs union is a good idea. David Davis and Liam Fox have responded by saying that this would stop us making our own trade deals. Yes this has obviously stopped Turkey, and why aren't we doing as much trade with China etc as Germany anyway? A vote in the HoC looms before Easter. Will Tory rebels support.

Will Jeremy Corbyn bow to pressure over the single market too? The customs union alone does not stop the border issue in Ireland. Nor does it stop ridiculous queues at Dover. I'm not sure Corbyn is one for listening though. He's got a whiff of power and democracy and reality is just a hindrance to utopia.

As for the Great Repeal Bill. Word has it, its not going too clever in the HoL. The conservatives had something of a show of strength with an unusual number turning up for the debate. But few on the backbenches were willing to speak in favour of...

It all feels like we are making no progress at all. We are still bleating on about cherry picked deals as if this is a negotiation. Its not.

So Leavers are too lazy and Remainers are too nice to lynch Johnson? That's what he's relying on, Jesus, no wonder he thinks he can get away with torpedoing the country.

It depends - I kind of believe that if all this madness doesn't come to a grinding halt then it will be Mad Max dystopia. I used to think it would just be a slow decline of living standards and a general worsening of everyday life. But now (especially after the disruption to food supply that a couple of days of snow caused) I'm seeing rioting in the streets, cars set on fire and bricks through windows...followed by some scenes of truly horrific violence.
If some kind of deal is cut, or we get a transition then yes- chuntering. But if not...
And the scary thing is - the politicians must know this is a possibility (why else would DD reference it?) But they still plunge on ahead.

@ woman and lala

I just showed ds1 that pic woman
It made him laugh

susanwalker Opinion pollsters in the RoI rarely check views on Irexit, because it has miniscule support

The last opinion polls I saw were several months ago, but support in the RoI for remaining in the EU was 85%

Critically ill man is former Russian spy

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43295134

A man who is critically ill after being exposed to an unknown substance in Wiltshire is a Russian national convicted of spying for Britain, the BBC understands.

Sergei Skripal, who is 66, was granted refuge in the UK following a "spy swap" between the US and Russia in 2010.

He and a woman, 33, were found unconscious on a bench at a shopping centre in Salisbury on Sunday afternoon.

The substance has not been identified.

Police are investigating whether a crime has been committed, following the incident at the Maltings shopping centre.

Col Skripal, who is a retired Russian military intelligence officer, was jailed for 13 years in 2006 for spying for Britain.

So Wiltshire Police will have to stop investigating Ted Heath at last

Yup, pain not good.
Lucky that Russia helped us out when we ran a bit short of gas last week though.
www.ft.com/content/31e076e2-1e28-11e8-956a-43db76e69936

Italian fascists 5 star, who've won seats in the election, are pro EU.

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-politics-5star/italys-5-star-sheds-anti-eu-image-calls-for-reform-idUKKBN1E12LZ

Strangely their pro EU stance is not being reported on this country's 'media'.

Matt Frei on Channel 4 news just 'accidentally' stated that they are anti EU.

Perfect excuse to bring out one of my favourite localish news stories from last year

metro.co.uk/2017/09/23/edl-rally-called-off-after-just-two-supporters-show-up-6950834/

I used to love five star shows age and poor music taste. Currently getting very disappointed when I'm hearing the name right now

woman
This story www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43272700 has a useful policy summary well down the page

DG You asked how Germans in the late 1940s -1960s felt about the decisions made by their older generations in the 1930s …

In fact, the shame & guilt affected German society and politics for several decades:

• The horror of inflation - which brought down Weimar and gave Hitler his chance
• The incredible post-war effort to rebuild from the rubble and form a completely different society, with a shared social contract, careful separation of powers, civil liberties built in to the constitution
• The avoidance of referenda, because these are considered easily manipulable by populists in times of crisis
• The refusal until fairly recently to participate in military action outside Europe "economic superpower but military pigmy" used to be a common reference to Germany in US & UK politicial-military circles

The after-effects on German attitudes were noticeable even in the late 1980s, my first contract here.

Imo, it has only been after re-unification and millions of East Germans joining

• with decades of being largely influenced by Russian rather than Western social & political values -

that the shame & guilt has been relegated to being part of history, not something most people think about.

Uk citizens use FOM about 3 x the EU average:

Out of 443 million E27 citizens, 3 million live in the UK
Out of 65 British citizens, 1.3 million live in the EU27

So 1 in 147 E27 citizens use their FOM - mostly young workers, many in the vital NHS, care or agriculture / farming sectors, also the hospitality industry

but 1 in 50 UK citizens do - includes many retired people, who don’t work, but would cost the UK more if they returned, because of the need to build more NHS & care infrastructure.

Right now it is probably quite difficult to have an informed opinion unless you read Italian.

I follow a BuzzFeed writer on twitter who seems knowledgeable about Italian politics (@AlbertoNardelli). It's early days but it seems ... messy.

I'm always cautious about English language reporting though. Remember the UK press licking its lips at the prospect of a Marine Le Pen presidency (that was never on the cards anyway), and all the handwringing over the German election? That said, the Italian situation seems to be genuinely messier than either of those.

Thanks TalkinPeace BBC and our pravda press keep repeating that 5star are anti EU but from the Express, as well as Reuters, has it that they are pro EU.
“For example their guy for the economy wants to remain in the Eurozone and essentially wants to change EU fiscal laws"
Probably academic as Berlosconi will probably end up back in?

In fact, the shame & guilt affected German society and politics for several decades
Great cultural riches derived from Germans' desire to face down their past too.
Marriage of Maria Braun, Tin Drum........
We had dad's army and endless historically inaccurate mawk.

Thanks misti . He's a good follow. There were several good Spanish journalists about Catalonia, still to find one that I can translate(get translated!) and understand on Italy.

The New York Times has some good analysis sometimes
as does the Washington Post
and actually the BBC is pretty good once you scroll down past the headlines

woman - I'm pretty sure that 5*, La Lega and Forza Italia are all Eurosceptic. They are all talking up reforming rather than leaving the EU, however. (For Berlusconi in particular, the EU is a fantastically useful vehicle for which to blame Italy's many problems - they can't be laid at his feet, oh no. God, I hate Berlusconi. I used to be able to laugh at him but with Trump and Brexit, looks like the joke's on me.)

women 5 star aren’t the fascists, the natural heirs to the fascist party are Fratelli d’Italia. The Lega are anti- establishment, nationalists and anti immigration ( since they broadened out from just hating the South of Italy). 5 Star are anti establishment and anti corruption and for the moment no longer anti Europe. They have also proved to be shite governers of Rome where I live over the last few years so I have no faith in them doing better on a larger scale. The Lega and 5 Star have done the best in these elections and both are talking about their responsibility to govern but think any collation between them (which 5 star always swore they would never do with anyone until 5 mins ago!) would really antagonize the left of 5 star. The bots and the brexiteers have been out in force today trying to make this all about leading to the collapse of the EU. And the Anglophone press are spouting similar rubbish. Reminiscent of the French and Dutch elections -the pattern is if nothing else consistent. The only thing that seems clear at the moment is that PD and Renzi have had a shocker. The rest...what form a coalition will take or whether we go to the polls again remains to be seen.

Bananagio really helpful thank you and lala. Even talk of another election?
Anglophone press are spouting similar rubbish exactly. There's daft and there's brexit daft. No one wants to go there. We could be providing a useful public service.

Nick 🇬🇧 🇪🇺
‏*@nicktolhurst*

A thread on why Italy will keep voting for extreme & even eurosceptic parties. And yet simultaneously, why they wont leave the EU either.

1/A v small thread on Italy & it’s likelihood of leaving the EU-a scenario that has excited a lot of UK chatter after yesterday election 1/

2/ many people seem to be comparing Italy with UK as if Italy would or even could be the ‘next domino” to fall. But the two nations couldn’t be more different.

3/ if you had to choose an EUcountry which could pull of leaving EU, the UK would be it. It’s international, flexible, reasonably well run public life, much industry esp services internationally orientated, its a big EU contributor & not in the EuroZone

4/ Italy is the opposite. The € alone almost rules out leaving EU by itself. For an Italian govt to even hint at leaving € wld mean that any rational person wld remove all bank money from Italian banks & deposit elsewhere in EU. There wld be a banking collapse-a bit like Greece

5/ an Italian banking collapse wld be worse than Greece tho, as Italy a modern Industrial economy. Nobody wld accept contracts, orders etc unless guaranteed in €, thus Italy leaving € wld face not only a banking collapse but trade collapse

6/ UK has argued it could leave EU to trade globally whatever you think of this, this certainly doesn’t apply to Italy. Italy’s trade is not just with EU it depends on EU to protect agriculture & industry also as Italy is not a big contributor to EU...

7/ Italy couldn’t even claim to get any money back- while unlike Brits many even eurosceptic Italians favour EU rules of mistrusted Italian institutions

8/ given all problematic chaos, lower growth etc associated with #brexit in a country which actually has some of the requirements to make if not a success then atleast not a complete disaster out of leaving EU -why then is talk of Italy -which has none- leaving EU so popular now?

9/ for non Italians the reason for wanting Italy to leave EU given what this entails can only mean one thing - desiring not just EU but € to fall. Essentially you’d be hoping for complete Italian (& presumably much of EU) financial system breakdown. Who wld want that?

10/ given that Italy does not even have trade & not services that UK has - exit from EU &€ wld likely mean economic & political breakdown & as stated financial collapse. Only those wanting a complete new Italy from the extreme right or left wld even remotely consider this, so..

11/ so back to Italians. The far right & left have always been stronger there than say in UK, but that doesn’t explain whole story, the unpleasant awkward truth is that while a majority of Italians not extreme....

12/ Italian mainstream political life has so broken down that paradoxically many Italians see no risk things cld get worse even by voting for parties which most people realize cannot carry out programs because they be a collapse. Italians want....

13/ Italians want change, but the center has collapsed & extremes are considered no worse a bet. Essentially Italy is a society with much continuity but outside of institutions. Italians remain confident socially even as institutional life broken, so to conclude a hard truth...
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14/ Italy will continue to vote extreme (this election wont be a one-off) even as they know they wont leave EU in an attempt to shake Italian system until someone comes along who can & who will solve the problems that are Italian made but who the elite cannot face & so blame EU.

I can't see another election in the offin. Part of the problem with Italian politics has been the traditional parties' willingness to bypass the electorate to install PMs and crony cabinets. After the fall of Berlusconi, there were, iirc, four unelected PMs heading the country. It explains the attraction of anti-corruption, new-broom parties but it's to be seen if these newbies break the cycle of coalitions of convenience and stitch-ups or just give them more of the same.

SwedishEdith great thread.
Makes EU even more indispensable if it can accommodate and mitigate excesses of countries prone to extremism?

Surely, with the likelihood of flights stopping, food shortages, etc, etc, TM will do what she's done so far, and back down? I really think that she will, soon now, agree a transition deal on current terms with the EU. No transition deal would mean her and her pals becoming very unpopular very soon, and might put Brexit itself at risk - the population would start to see the concrete effects of Brexit before it was too late to withdraw Article 50. And she obviously wants to cling to power for as long as possible.