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Brexit

Westminstenders: Break Up or Make Up?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/02/2018 07:53

The next week or so appears to be yet another crunch point (not that any of these crunch points have actually resolved anything so far).

The EU is set to outline the plan for Ireland. Which everyone thought had already been outlined and agreed already. And it had been admitted was legally binding.

Except apparently we don't want to do that, and we are now crying about how the EU want to break up Britain (nothing to do with England wanting to leave the EU and Scotland and NI wanting to stay in it of course).

Jeremy Corbyn has now apparently decided that the customs union is a good idea. David Davis and Liam Fox have responded by saying that this would stop us making our own trade deals. Yes this has obviously stopped Turkey, and why aren't we doing as much trade with China etc as Germany anyway? A vote in the HoC looms before Easter. Will Tory rebels support.

Will Jeremy Corbyn bow to pressure over the single market too? The customs union alone does not stop the border issue in Ireland. Nor does it stop ridiculous queues at Dover. I'm not sure Corbyn is one for listening though. He's got a whiff of power and democracy and reality is just a hindrance to utopia.

As for the Great Repeal Bill. Word has it, its not going too clever in the HoL. The conservatives had something of a show of strength with an unusual number turning up for the debate. But few on the backbenches were willing to speak in favour of...

It all feels like we are making no progress at all. We are still bleating on about cherry picked deals as if this is a negotiation. Its not.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 03/03/2018 14:23

Meanwhile, while the UK govt & business are squabbling with themselves, international banks have been preparing for hard Brexit:

Frankfurt property market booming, house prices & rents - I live in Hessen and many here have remarked on the boost after the EU ref.
Train announcements in German & English on train lines here, also many official forms with English underneath

Several other European cities will share this benefit though - Frankfurt is too small to take it all.

  • Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan have already booked places in the best Frankfurt schools (typical location / bonus package for senior staff).

  • Deutsche Bank moving staff & funds out of London (their CEO wanted this move before the Ref, but could never get approval)

  • JPMorgan to Hire 'Thousands' for Operations Hub in Poland

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-22/jpmorgan-to-hire-thousands-for-mid-back-office-jobs-in-warsaw

… to open an operational center in Warsaw, swelling the ranks of banks attracted by Poland’s lower costs
amid competition by European cities for jobs set to move away from London.

DGRossetti · 03/03/2018 14:28

… to open an operational center in Warsaw, swelling the ranks of banks attracted by Poland’s lower costs

Oh, the irony.

Poland has a lot of potential - and is realising some of it. I await the squeals of Brexiteers, as nice educated Britons move to Poland ...

Peregrina · 03/03/2018 14:39

DIL is quite convinced that DGS will probably need to move to Poland to find work when he grows up - as in Auf Wiedersehen Pet.

I wonder just how much paying for the bits of the EU we want, and are able to access as associates, is going to cost. I suspect it could easily add up to the £350 million a week.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/03/2018 14:46

peregrina Far worse is the loss in trade,
which is an inevitable consequence of choosing to become a 3rd country

  • not a punishment

iirc, RNorth & Booker estimated in the WTO scenario that the UK could lose up to 400 billion in trade per year
Even a Canada+ deal - which would require a few years in transition first - would lose many many billions in trade

BigChocFrenzy · 03/03/2018 14:47

Of course, that amount is total trade volume; profit would be a small % of that

mrsreynolds · 03/03/2018 14:53

The ultras and loony leavers will never accept FOM

And that's what I want for my kids (and me!)

Hence the Irish passport thing

Mil is less than impressed 🤣🤣🤣

mrsreynolds · 03/03/2018 14:56

Ds1s plan is to train as a teacher and leave 😔😔😔

woman11017 · 03/03/2018 17:24

Update on Yarls Wood:
@AyoCaesar

Emergency Callout

@ukhomeoffice is trying to deport a Yarl’s Wood #hungerforfreedom strikers Florence & Opelo Kgari tonight from Heathrow T2, despite ongoing legal proceedings.

We call on @RuthSmeeth to intervene in this case and protect her constituents. Please share.

Florence & Opelo have been denied access to their phones, and no further information has been released about which flight they’re scheduled to be on. This is a clearly punitive use of deportation, and brings the entire Home Office into disrepute.

Cailleach1 · 03/03/2018 18:08

Tony Connolly on why the it is all coming to a head.

A political agreement was reached between the EU and UK in December, and it was now being converted into a legal text. The ambiguities and sensitivities of the deal were always going to look much starker when enshrined in a legal document.

EU officials and member states are fully aware of how toxic the Irish border has become. But the European Union is built on complex legal foundations, and the kind of constructive ambiguity that might allow unionists and nationalists to equally claim victory in Northern Ireland will not work with Brexit.

www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0303/944638-tony-connelly-brexit/

woman11017 · 03/03/2018 18:18

all coming to a head
Someone's tweeted that on brexit the brit gov give speeches, while the EU produces legal documents.

mrsreynolds · 03/03/2018 18:58

Speeches that don't actually say anything
Just increasingly jingoistic sound bites for their ultra loony leavers base
😡😔

BigChocFrenzy · 03/03/2018 19:21

(paywall) Veteran Leaver Booker: Despite Brexiteer wishful thinking, there is no easy way out of the Ireland impasse

Banished to the Torygraph back pages for Brexit heresy, allowed ever shorter pieces

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/despite-brexiteer-wishful-thinking-no-easy-way-ireland-impasse/

For more than 13 months, ever since Theresa May announced at Lancaster House
that she wanted to remove us from all the complex arrangements that allow us unfettered access to our largest export market,
one enormous question has loomed over the whole dismal story:

when would inescapable reality at last begin to break in on the endless sea of wishful thinking?

Last week, with the EU’s publication of its “draft treaty” for UK withdrawal, it did so.

For a year we have had little more than shadow boxing, with both sides simply talking past each other.
The EU has stolidly sat there repeating the rules of the club we have chosen to leave.
The British have seemed incapable of practical engagement at any point.
We have babbled about “frictionless borders”.
Mrs May has gone on about creating that “deep and special partnership”, and robotically repeating that we must “take back control of our laws, our borders and our money”, as if these assertions were themselves a substitute for thought.

But last week, with the publication of that 119-page “draft legal text”, the moment of truth at last arrived.
And what it all came down to, the make-or-break issue as I have been warning for more than a year, is
the wholly intractable question of the Irish border.

The seemingly ‘irresistible force’ of Brexiteer wishful thinking has at last met the immovable object of those EU rules

The EU again spells out, more formally than ever, that there is no way under its rules that we can retain that “frictionless” border between the two parts of Ireland,
because this could allow Northern Ireland to be used as a back door into the EU market by any country in the world.

The only way to protect the “integrity of the single market” would be to move that customs border into the middle of the Irish Sea,
leaving the two parts of Ireland united under the trading arrangements of the EU and
thus cutting Northern Ireland off from the rest of the United Kingdom.

The EU insists this is the only way its market can be protected.
Mrs May says this is “wholly unacceptable” and that no UK prime minister could agree to it.

So the seemingly “irresistible force” of Brexiteer wishful thinking has at last met the immovable object of those EU rules.

Of course, if we had chosen to leave the EU but remain in the wider European Economic Area, none of this crisis need have arisen.

But the result is that Mrs May has landed herself in an impasse from which there is now no way out.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/03/2018 19:31

Europe knows May is a prisoner of the Brexit ultras – and won’t trust her to deliver

They certainly realised this after Arlene's phone call to Mayhem blew up the first agreed draft of phase 1.

The only question is if a transition until Dec 2020 can be cobbled together, to give time for business to prepare - E27 businesses mainly, because many UK-owned businesses seem to have the eyes tightly shut, listening only to Nurse May.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/02/europe-tories-eurosceptics-theresa-may

But a scorched-earth ethos has captured the party.

On the forced march from reality nothing of pro-European Conservative culture can be left standing.

This is the spirit in which some Brexiters have taken to trashing the Good Friday agreement.
By locking north and south of Ireland into mutually beneficial integration, the treaty impedes clinical severance of ties between the UK and the EU.

So its success in underpinning peace for two decades must be rewritten as failure.
In this view, history is not a record of events but an editable preface to whatever political expediency demands today.

Over the following six years, Merkel watched Cameron being moved further and further away from the European mainstream.
She could see, as could any attentive witness, that no concession would ever placate the Eurosceptic ultras and that, if continually indulged,
they would not stop harrying their leader until they had destroyed him,
which eventually they did.

Now the same Tory faction is harrying Theresa May.

Cailleach1 · 03/03/2018 20:18

All cheerful stuff. No? Jeepers, BigChoc. There are some grim and stark images in those lines.

On BBC news they said Jeremy Hunt said May's speech helped bring Leave and Remain voters together. So, does that mean everyone is united now in thinking it is all completely bonkers?

And they are talking about her speech as if it was a significant part of negotiations or something. It is a talk by the PM to her own home audience. Not any negotiation or discussion forum. Where will she go next to talk to her own party, parliament or the general British public? Seville or Santorini.

It would be easy to forget nigh on half of those who voted did not go for this situation. It is easy to forget because the gov't, airwaves and media have all been mouthpieces of brexit forces. But just listening to the news report of Caroline Lucas at the Green Party Conference. Lots of decent people still out there.

woman11017 · 03/03/2018 20:49

Lots of decent people still out there.
Intense bit of messaging and phoning in last 45 minutes as those two women were due to be deported: Diane Abbott, Jess Phillips, Ruth Smeeth and Ash Sarkar have been brilliant. The plane left at 8.15.

Westminstenders: Break Up or Make Up?
mrsreynolds · 03/03/2018 21:07

Good to hear
I sign so many petitions and e mail my MP much to his annoyance probably and it feels like it makes no difference...
So pleased this has been halted

woman11017 · 03/03/2018 21:45

Smile good news MrsR Here's the story:
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/opelo-kgari-deported-home-office-botswana-yarls-wood-immigration-florence-heathrow-a8238401.html

Mum and daughter. Daughter has been here since being a child.

She also spoke of the strange reality she found herself in when she was initially detained after living the life of a British woman. The first time, last May, she had been on her way back from a short weekend in Belfast with friends when she was placed in a holding cell for two days – a memory that brings tears to her eyes – before being driven to the centre

The second time, she had been reporting to the Home Office as she is required to do every two weeks. Again, she was locked in a holding cell for more than 12 hours and then taken straight to detention with only what she had on her back

This time round, I wasn’t even wearing a bra,” Opelo said. “I was going to yoga with a friend after reporting to the Home Office, so I just threw a coat on. I never got to the class. They put me and my mum in a holding cell for over 12 hours, with three officers outside. I didn’t have a bra for five days once I got here, or a change of underwear

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 03/03/2018 22:22

Can’t see that there was ever any

Tories’ Brexit unity fades as Heseltine slams May’s speech

‘Phrases, generalisations and platitudes’ won’t make a deal more likely, warns former deputy PM

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/03/tories-brexit-michael-heseltine-theresa-may?CMP=share_btn_tw

BigChocFrenzy · 03/03/2018 23:08

Much of the media is desperate to run the story that the Tories are united behind May
Unfortunately, reality intervened as soon as politicians digested the waffles & cherries

Heseltine (Major’s deputy PM):

“The speech just moves us further down the cherry-picking road.
It set out the cherries that Britain wants to pick

but that approach completely ignores the fact that the EU has
‘sorry there is no cherry picking’.”

Peregrina · 03/03/2018 23:38

I am a bit surprised that J R-M and co are apparently behind Theresa May. I suspect the answer is they know that this is the best she can do, and that they won't be able to do any better, and they either need to put up or shut up - for now at least.

Mistigri · 04/03/2018 07:11

There was a very similar response to the December agreement. It took less than three months for the fault-lines to be exposed.

I am struggling to understand the polarised responses to the May speech. There was some sensible stuff in it, an acknowledgement that hard choices will have to be made. But there was a lot of cake, much of which the EU has already rejected.

The problem for May (it's a self-created problem) is that she has to turn press and public opinion round and that won't happen quickly. And she has almost no time left.

I also think that the ERG, Boris, IDS etc will continue to behave opportunistically and even if they have been quiet since May's speech that doesn't mean they will remain so.

There are also some other issues waiting in the wings (e.g. Gibraltar) which are going to be red rags to the ERG bull.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 04/03/2018 07:48

It usually falls apart in favour of the erg’s preferred course of action, which is why her speech seems a bit meaningless. When it comes to the crunch, she concedes ground on the single market etc.

On bbc bias:

This skew of anti-Eu meps to pro-Eu meps on qt is awful. 100% of mep appearances have been from those advocating against the Eu!

Westminstenders: Break Up or Make Up?
prettybird · 04/03/2018 09:25

JRM projecting his poison on to the EU

https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/rees-mogg-attacks-ireland-eu-brexit/

One of the comments in the 48% Facebook group where I saw this describes him as a unctious snollygoster Grin

DGRossetti · 04/03/2018 10:38

Here's an idea ... maybe JRM should personally go to Ireland, and argue his case that they should jolly well do what he wants.

I'm sure their intransigence is simply a case of them forgetting who's boss. Like all nasty little colonials, they need to be put in their place once a generation.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 04/03/2018 10:57

Perhaps he should head over to Gibraltar too

Gibraltar chief minister claims Brexit veto and demands a second referendum

Fabian Picardo: Constitution gives us autonomy on business and social care.

"It is clear that we do have a Brexit veto for Gibraltar".

amp.ibtimes.co.uk/gibraltar-chief-minister-claims-brexit-veto-calls-second-referendum-1657414?__twitter_impression=true