I am not sure we can deduce that tbh. I think there are huge dangers in ascribing attitudes and values to a particular group without robust evidence.
Ive been looking at the detail of the latest yougov Westminster voting intent survey and comparing it with the last few and earlier surveys there are some interesting consistencies:
- you need to understand that the average weekly yougov poll does not count undecided and wont votes in calculating its headline figures.
This is different to the last few polls before an election, where the art of getting the poll right, is accurately predicting turn out and deciding what the behaviour of the dont knows was going to be at the polling booth.
Yougov of course proved to be the most successful at this.
- There is currently a pretty consistent 20% of women who are not sure how they will vote. Thats a hell of a lot of voters who could be turned potential swing voters.
Traditionally they do tend to lean more labour, but most pollsters underestimated this at the GE. They were caught out by a larger than expected swing to labour amongst 25 - 50 year old women. This was felt by some to be the fatal blow for the Tories.
Notably this compares to 9% dont knows for me.
The fact that so many are unconvinced by either party makes striving to set policy for women in this age group is particularly important.
They MIGHT be more likely to vote Labour. But I'd be extremely weary of the assumption of the degree to which that women will definitely behave the same way on the next election day compared with the last one. Why? Because of the groups which are most likely to be the don't knows and the stay at homes. And because them are not being convinced by either May or Corbyn.
Labour should be walking the polls.
The size of the don't know category means it hides any statisfically shift in leanings.
- There does seem to be something of significantly weaker and less solid support for Cirbtn versus May. It means Labour can not afford to complacent nor desreguard the womens vote. The young arent necessarily as loyal as it been suggested.
Labour will have to work hard on reassuring women voters and valuing their input. They can taKe any of the vote for granted.
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The 'don't know' option is interesting when broken down by age. 'Dont know was high in the two youngest groups and lowest in the over 65s.
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The wont vote at all answer to each group, dudnt show much of a difference between all the groups apart from one. The 25-50 year olds were significantly less likely to vote than the other groups. At the last election the lowest turnout was in the under 25s instead. This is important fir a couple of reasons.
This group is the bulk of your working population, its your parents, it people trying or have the most pressing concerns about the housing market, its your remainers. Its your 'centerist dads' who neither party is managing to persuade.
This age group is interesting because its spread out more, rather than concerntrated in particular constituencies. This makes their votes potentially more influencak. Just 72 vites across a number of marginals made the difference between a tory majority and a hung parliament.
Conclusion
How the labour vote is weaker than it should be in certain groups and there is a sense of taking votes for grantef by Labour.
www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-party-women-support-decline-why-brexit-bullying-transgender-rights-a8213576.html This article from today talks about the growing resentment of cloth eared men in Labour.
Its inaccurate in how it analyses the yougov polls, but the fact that women are pissed at how they are being taken for granted is getting a mainstream medium airing and is being noticed.
The labour vote is crucially soft. No one has won over the most votitile 25 -50 and potentially least loyal voters.
Beyond that, it doesnt say a great deal else. The weakness is there to see and spans a number of key issues to that group.
The Cons could try and supress that vote or court it. I suspect we'll get bother. Wimen have a disportionately most valuable and important decision to make over how they vote compared with men.
Treating women with respect isnt being seen to be done.
We cant say exactly what is the descisive issue us. If anything its a cumlitive effect.
Yougov survey therefore is imporatant as it is littered with the odd bit here and there which offer more clues to what is going on below the visible surface.
Make of that what you will.
(Hope this makes sense. Ive fallen asleep three times in the course of trying to write it!)