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Brexit
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Westministenders: Groundhog Day

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/02/2018 16:20

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

OP posts:
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47
DGRossetti · 20/02/2018 20:41

Even I know not to ever leak things verbatim ...

woman11017 · 20/02/2018 20:50

Tories don’t trust one another
Thanks pain
Brexit really does mean declaring war on one's own people. Interesting.
But not surprising, I suppose.

Westministenders: Groundhog Day
BigChocFrenzy · 20/02/2018 21:35

I was thinking that post-Brexit would be more a Mad Mogg dystopia rather than Mad Max dystopia

Visualising Mogg wearing his 3-piece suit in some nightmare futuristic vehicle, smashing his way through the wrecked UK towns and rolling over the UK peasants

BigChocFrenzy · 20/02/2018 22:02

US-UK Shadow Talks and an "Ideal" FTA

Interesting background and timeline

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4380488-IFT-FTA.html

mathanxiety · 21/02/2018 04:24

I don't think Hoey et al are pissing over the GFA because it disrupts their delusional fantasies. I think the scuppering of the GFA is a central aim of theirs, something they have longed for since its inception. I think they are seizing the chance that Brexit offers.

I think the DUP were emboldened in their obduracy over the Irish language and Foster's refusal to resign over the heating fuel scandal thanks to the Brexit background, assuming that the GFA will be rolled over by Brexit so they didn't have to even put up a front of good faith.

mathanxiety · 21/02/2018 04:37

...that the EU parliament or E27 veto any deal that weakens the GFA and does not fulfill the agreed A50 terms wrt the border...
If Ireland uses her veto, the UK can simply walk away. The danger of the Brexit hawks taking over becomes more pronounced in this scenario because of the visceral anger that would emerge were Ireland to be the one to put the spanner in the works. Result - a win for the hard Brexiteers, 'vindictive Ireland' gets the blame when it all goes tits up, and the GFA gets flushed down the toilet.

...that the Irish-American lobby uses its muscle here, to slap down Brits who want to bully & stomp on Ireland...
This is the only real hope, but the only lobby being heard at the moment in the US is Big Money and the hard right.

mathanxiety · 21/02/2018 04:46

And there would be a price for Ireland if the US were to be involved in any significant way, and possibly a price for the EU. I would steer well clear of the US, personally. There is no such thing as good will/a free lunch where the US is concerned.

HesterThrale · 21/02/2018 07:17

Half-listening to the Today programme this morning... Nick Robinson in an interview definitely said, "If Brexit happens..."
I've not heard that before. It's usually 'When it happens...'
Tide. Turning?

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 08:26

imo, the RoI using its veto would be better - for them - than agreeing to a deal that would inflame their own public opinion as a sellout to UK bullying and would damage their country.

Other EU consumers avoiding all Irish food exports because of fears of UK / US contamination would be devastating

  • the UK is an important trading partner for the RoI, but the EU is even more so.

In practice, I would expect the RoI would not be left isolated in its veto, because other countries would join them

Also that the European Parliament in particular would vote down any deal that did not satisfy the 3 principles, since they are most concerned with post-Brexit E27 citizens rights and the NI border.
They would also not vote for a withdrawal agreement that backslid on what was agreed in Phase 1, or any phase 2 trade arrangement after this

Peregrina · 21/02/2018 08:47

1. Theresa May is being told by over 60 Tory MPs they will no longer support her brexit plans if members of the cabinet agree on Thursday to keep Britain too closely aligned to the European Union.

Another cowardly bunch. If they have enough members to call a leadership election, why don't they get on with it and put themselves up for the job? But no, it's much easier to snipe from the sidelines.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 08:57

The Brexit Ultras want their dream Brexit, but don't want the responsibility for it

  • because it would be everyone else's nightmare

"Power without responsibility"
The "harlots" in the famous Stanley Baldwin 1931 quote (and supplied to him by Kipling) were Beaverbrook & Rothermere, who were stirring up fascism in Britain

Peregrina · 21/02/2018 09:16

The Brexit Ultras want their dream Brexit, but don't want the responsibility for it
- because it would be everyone else's nightmare

Exactly so, and if TM had enough courage, I think she could call their bluff on this one.

Somerville · 21/02/2018 09:31

Exactly so, and if TM had enough courage, I think she could call their bluff on this one.

Can she? How do the numbers stack up wrt Tory MP inclinations here? (I'm sure this has been covered before, but I can't remember.)

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 21/02/2018 09:56

Is this TM's big Major moment? Will she face down her bastards? If she caves in is there enough from the other side of the party to pressure?

lalalonglegs · 21/02/2018 10:00

Calling their bluff kind of assumes she doesn't want the same outcome as the Brexiteers want. There has been so much rhetoric coupled with so many U-turns that I have completely lost my way with what TM hopes to achieve from this whole sorry mess - apart from keeping the party intact and getting rid of furrin.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 10:09

For a "Major" moment, May would require all these qualities:

a) courage
b) knowledge of the Brexit choices
c) flexibility to change policy
d) capability to push the new policy through

Unfortunately she seems cowardly, ignorant, inflexible, powerless in her own cabinet

Each individual characteristic is shameful for a PM
All of them together at such a crucial time for the country: disaster looms

Peregrina · 21/02/2018 10:10

It's hard to say how much support May has. A majority of Tory MPs voted Remain, but how many were like May herself and in reality had no strong feelings on the matter?

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 10:13

Of course, she would also need principles, but sadly too few politicians in recent years have had any.

Her priorities are that
she remains PM
the Tories remain in govt
furrin people are kicked out

The country - at least that bit that is not the Tory Home Counties - comes nowhere for her

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 10:14

I doubt if more than a handful of MPs have any emotional attachment to the EU or its principles.
They just realise that leaving means serious danger of economic damage and recession
even if they are foggy on details

LucheroTena · 21/02/2018 10:16

As Bill Clinton said, “it’s the economy, stupid”. They crash the economy with this, they’re out and everyone will deny ever voting for leave.

Peregrina · 21/02/2018 10:21

They crash the economy with this, they’re out and everyone will deny ever voting for leave.

Except for the 62 people who have signed the ERG note!

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 10:26

No, they crash the economy and they blame the EU and Remainers

This is also the one time they can really tighten austerity, slash public spending, cut back workers' rights, food safety … and escape blame
They may calculate that the only voters who would blame them are those who would not have voted for the, anyway

They'll protect their core vote, home-owners and the 50+ age group, make everyone else subsidise them
So, just more of the same, but speeded up

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 10:28

The alternative is 99% certain to be electoral wipeout:
obvious U-turns, offending their nationalist core vote, being exposed as blundering idiots, the party tearing itself to pieces

BigChocFrenzy · 21/02/2018 10:31

So, weighing up about 70% chance of electoral disaster vs 99%
and the fact that doing nothing - always best for cowards & dummies - defaults to WTO / no-deal anyway …