Westministenders: Groundhog Day

[RedToothBrush]

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

I remember reading that a former UKIp MEP (Asian) was so disgusted with the spike in racism and nationalism, that he wished Leave hadn't won the ref
Some Leavers who voted for a change may be come totally turned off by the hard right crap, especially those who expected EEA / EFTA and are are becoming worried about post-Brexit trade

Meanwhile, in a breathtaking display of exemplary joined-up thinking by our government:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/18/uk-hits-skilled-worker-visa-cap-third-month-home-office-refuses-applications

Britain has hit its cap on visas for skilled non-European workers for an unprecedented third month in a row, deepening the staffing crisis facing the NHS and other key employers.

When the monthly quota was reached in December and January for the first time in seven years immigration lawyers had expected it would prove to be a blip, but they now fear it is turning into a long-term problem.

More than a third of the tier-2 work visas issued by the Home Office go to medical and other staff recruited to work in the NHS. Migration experts expect that among the first group to be turned away will be doctors and other healthcare staff, software developers and scientists.

JustAnother - Corbyn has no interest in remaining or even considering remaining despite research showing that his party members are overwhelmingly in favour of remaining/soft Brexit (was it 70% in favour in this weekend's polling?). He has repeatedly refused to rule in remaining in the SM (because, he claims you can't be in the SM without being in the EU which is simply inaccurate) or the CU and as recently as three weeks ago refused even to attend a meeting of parliamentary party leaders to discuss the subject. He appears to be well outside of his comfort zone discussing Europe so, despite many opportunities over the past two years to campaign to remain or to mitigate the Brexit vote since, he has dodged the issue at almost every turn, his aides coming up with guff such as the "jobs-first Brexit" which convinces no one. At best, you could say his attitude to remaining/soft Brexit is ambivalent but many people, myself included, now see it as needlessly vague and ultimately enabling of the Conservatives' ruinous policies.

And breathe... I'm quite tempted to vote for Renew, it seems more constructive than spoiling my ballot paper which is the most appetising choice I currently have.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43110910
KFC switches to a new logistics system. It cocks up its delivers. Half its stores have to close.

Due to a lack of chicken.

This is how easy it is for logistics and a new system to go wrong.

KFC switches to a new logistics system. It cocks up its delivers. Half its stores have to close.

The narrative spun there is so rabily pro-Brexit ...

I first heard of Renew a couple of weeks ago. It was being trailed as a Macron/En Marche style movement. I got the impression they were keeping it under wraps until they had more potential candidates. (220 then, 300 now?).

But I agree they might just split the vote. How did Macron do it?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/new-party-aiming-to-stop-brexit-launches-tour-of-uks-towns-and-univeristies-a3756096.html%3famp

How did Macron do it?

He split the vote, in an electoral system where this is a viable strategy due to the two-stage election process. He also benefited from other smaller parties (far right and hard left) splitting the vote, and from the two traditional parties having made inexplicably poor choices of candidate (the socialists chose a nobody and the republicans a crook).

Basically, he was phenomenally lucky, although he did do a lot of hard work to make the most of his luck.

And breathe... I'm quite tempted to vote for Renew, it seems more constructive than spoiling my ballot paper which is the most appetising choice I currently have.

With our first past the post system, I think the question is, how close is the vote likely to be? If it's one of those constituencies where the Labour or Tory party could put up a stuffed dummy and people would vote it in, then it's worth it as a protest. If the electoral arithmetic is tight then no. So e.g. worth voting for them in Theresa May's constituency*, but not in Amber Rudd's where a handful of votes could unseat her.

A better approach would be for them to start standing in local government elections, and get themselves known. A problem though, is that UKIP had twenty odd years before they were successful, an anti-Brexit party has got about that many weeks.

• But then, why not just vote for Lord Buckethead?

I can't help thinking that if Cameron had held his nerve, he could have faced down the UKIP tendency in his party, because despite numerous attempts they were only initially able to get two MPs by them crossing the floor from the Tory party. Carswell did hold his seat in 2015, so is the only UKIP MP ever actually elected. There is certainly some doubt about the conduct of the election in the constituency that Farage stood in in 2015, so it is possible that he might have got elected.

Basically though, they made a huge amount of noise.......

Peregrina - our constituency unseated our incumbent Conservative MP and elected a Labour one last summer. Some of us are now asking why we bothered as the Labour party aren't offering much opposition - especially on Brexit - and we don't want to vote for them in the local elections just because they're Not Tories. I don't think Renew will get enough money/people to field candidates in May though so I'm left with pretty thin pickings.

I would like to see many more informal arrangements were pro-EU candidates from the different parties get together and agree to stand down.

I agree Peregrina: more crossparty mutual support required to unseat certain Tories. And Hoey. But Labour weren't interested in 'standing down' last election.

I too think a disaster is probably on the cards, and that it will be only from the ruins that we get a sensible government out of it.

Yes. I remember reading somewhere a while back that we are entering a 'period of nation-building'. This whole 'getting worse then getting better' process could take a very long time.

Right about now, I'm minded to vote for anything coherent which isn't sexist/homophobic and that's not Lab, Con or LD!

Last GE my choices were Lab, Con, LD and a former UKIP candidate.

Its a Lab/Tory marginal. Neither will do anything that benefits the local area because of where we sit within national politics. I might as well shoot myself in the foot than vote for either.

More on the biggest political issue of the day

Jim Waterson‏ @jimwaterson
Now people are writing to their MP to complain that their local KFC is closed. This country is astonishing. h/t @willmartin19

Neil Coyle‏ @coyleneil
I've been contacted by disappointed #KFC customers on Borough High St #SE1 & Walworth Rd #SE17 today

It does make you wonder about a No Deal situation... I'm almost curious as to what would actually happen if it came to pass!

DH reckons that May should do a deal with the EU privately in which they agree to take us back after she takes us out for a month and all hell breaks loose and we then beg to be readmitted.

I think he's crazy, but then no crazier than actual Brexiteers.

Just looking at the Renew website and find the focus on 'people from outside politics' (literally the top of their webpage) makes me twitch slightly. I know a lot of out politicians are crap right now, but that doesn't mean everyone in politics is bad or that having experience and knowledge of politics is a bad thing. A lot of people in politics have had previous non-political roles and work bloody hard to try and do the right thing by people. Also let's face it, Trump was a person from outside politics and that's hardly a ringing endorsement. I really feel uncomfortable by this implication that everyone in politics is bad and therefore coming from outside politics is somehow automatically a good thing.

If nothing else why would any party seeking to be viable wish to push away any existing MPs or Councillors from other parties who might be looking for a new home? It seems a bit shortsighted.

Wonder what the Kentucky Fried Chicken demographic will do when there are no planes on April 1st 2019?
May should do a deal with the EU privately in which they agree to take us back after she takes us out for a month
When mine were very little, we convinced them that Channel 5 TV was actually Sky for a good year.
It might be worth a try with blue passports, a Patriotic Bake Off and an RAF fly past?

Don't think anyone has linked this thread about Brexiteers - I thought it was an interesting hypothesis. Basically Brexiteers find life too complicated and see a got a to leave the EU as a vote to go back to simpler times. So no point in arguing with detail because they voted against detail
mobile.twitter.com/garrethhayes/status/965318168028819456

100% British and Irish Chicken on the bone
All our Original Recipe Chicken on the Bone is sourced from British and Irish farms and delivered fresh to our restaurants.

In fact, our chicken comes from the same farms and the same barns that supply the big supermarkets. Because we can’t source enough of the size and cut of chicken that we need from the UK, we also source some from other countries in Europe, Brazil and Thailand, but all our suppliers have to meet the same high welfare standards.

Oh dear. No planes and more potential KFC shortages on 1st April 2019.

Jeremy Corbyn threatens Conservative MP with legal action over Communist spies claim
www.itv.com/news/2018-02-19/jeremy-corbyn-threatens-conservative-mp-with-legal-action-over-communist-spies-claim/

Just looking at the Renew website and find the focus on 'people from outside politics' (literally the top of their webpage) makes me twitch slightly. I know a lot of out politicians are crap right now, but that doesn't mean everyone in politics is bad or that having experience and knowledge of politics is a bad thing

This is straight out of the Macron playbook and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing - the idea being to attract people who are not career politicians but who have expertise in diverse areas in the private and public sectors. It has been a bit of a double edged sword for LREM (the party political wing of En Marche) - some of their elected députés (MPs) have struggled to get to the grips with political life or have been unsuitable in various ways - but I think the idea behind it is basically good (you need better vetting and better candidate training than LREM was able to do in the time available)

In the UK, the quality of the current generation of politicians is overall so dire that attracting competent people from civil society has never been more important.

DH reckons that May should do a deal with the EU privately in which they agree to take us back after she takes us out for a month and all hell breaks loose and we then beg to be readmitted.

It won't happen, but I love love love this idea.

Bigly - Ben Bradley has now deleted the Corbyn spy tweet. He is the same MP who was in trouble a couple of weeks ago for writing a blog about how the unemployed shouldn't be allowed to have children. He'll go far, that one .

The Uk govt is so ignorant that I expect Barnier could sneak a clause in the withdrawal agreement (if Ollie Robbins keeps schtum),
or modify some existing EU legislation to allow the UK to return very quickly if it applies to do so.

In fact, if the UK applied to rejoin within a few years after transition ends, imo, there is nothing serious to prevent re-entry on the same terms as we have now

• that really would be just a matter of politics, nothing to upset EU or WTO rules

and the ascension transition could be on the same terms as the draft post-Brexit transition now.

So, I think although we must keep warning of the consequences, we may need to concentrate on planning a rejoin,
either as an emergency fallback if there is a disastrous WTO Brexit,
or just as soon as sufficient of the Brexiter core vote dies off and is replaced by the current teens

The EU would want first to be certain that Uk voter sentiment had genuinely changed
and I think that only likely if / when May fails to shield ordinary voters from the consequences of being a 3rd country

If she or her successor cave in and go for EEA / EFTA, then the consequences won't be very noticeable, so most UK voters may be content to stay in that.

Place marking - keep missing this thread.