Westministenders: Groundhog Day

[RedToothBrush]

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

I assume though that if the current Govt does renege on the GFA, then the IRA could threaten the City again?

The IRA knows that taking their armed struggle to the British mainland works.
However, aside from a few dissident extremists, no republican wants to resume the civil war.* The long game is our massively favourable population demographics - a Catholic minority is now edging on a majority, and increasing every year. All we need to do is wait it out for another decade or two, encouraging peace and prosperity and a close relationship with the EU (who would probably be needed to financially support reunion).
The rabid unionists needed to throw up some hurdles, or their influence would ebb away, along with their elderly voters.
Continually stalling the assembly is one.
Brexit another.
Their confidence and supply agreement with the government another.
They're now calling for direct rule from Westminster.
It will all cause chaos and possibly a resumption of violence but they see it as their best shot at cleaving themselves closer to Britain, and making Irish people even warier about the costs of being reunited with us.

*Thats not to say it couldn't happen. Someone puts a camera along the 'border' (that we don't recognise? The guns will come out to shoot it down... and once the guns are back out...

The guns will come out to shoot it down
And who's to know whose guns they will really be?

Nick Clegg @ nicjk_clegg
Question for PM: Denmark voted to leave Europol in Dec ’15, since then negotiated v limited access to its data based on full membership of EU, Schengen, and the ECJ. We’re leaving all of the above. On what planet are we going to get better access to Europol than Denmark?
Hectoring foreigners about the ills of rigid ideology while pursuing an ideologically rigid Brexit won’t help either.

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1G021R?__twitter_impression=true
Dutch to hire 750 new customs agents before Brexit

Pieter Omtzigt @ pieteromtzigt
The Netherlands prepare for a UK outside the customs Union.
When will the UK be prepared for it

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
Dutch Cabinet Minister @Menno_Snel announces yesterday Netherlands to appoint between 750-930 new customs agents to deal with 30% Brexit increase in workload for customs and businesses - assuming two scenarios: No Deal or Canada deal.
"If we need hundreds of new customs and agricultural inspectors, the British are going to need thousands," says Dutch Parliament Brexit rapporteur @PieterOmtzigt #friction

dobby Corbyn did oppose the GFA, in particular the negotiations leading up to it
I remember at the time that Gerry Adams had to ask JC to stop doing this, because he was stiffening the Sinn Fein / IRA hardliners who wanted to continue the "armed struggle"

somerville If the UK bins key parts of the GFA - especially if the DUP and hard right ministers like Gove gloat openly about it - wouldn't Republican sentiment change ?

I remember the massive change in NI sentiment and volunteers flooding to the IRA after the introduction of internment and after Bloody Sunday.

Outrageously unfair actions by the British govt moved a Catholic population that was previously heavily SDLP and for peaceful change to one that heavily supported Sinn Fein / IRA (and still does)

Irish friends at the time said being peaceful meant the Unionists and the British govt trampling all over them.
"God created Catholics and the Armalite made them equal"

If violence increases in Ireland, I wouldn't expect the mainland to remain immune
and bombing the City proved by far the most effective way of forcing change on the UK govt, with very few civilian casualties - much less than UK bombings in the ME.

big I think we're using oppose in different ways. Probably my fault, normally when I've seen that it's in relation to him voting against the gfa, which he didn't do. I sometimes spend too long down hard right Tory rabbit holes.

The IRA, if they are clever, might just start a City of London bombing campaign, nothing in NI
Then the UK govt would probably bring more troops into NI, to hunt the leaders
If Gove & co are in power, probably bring in internment again

That would probably lay the blame on the UK govt for any NI violence - and we know from experience that there are always some soldiers or police who commit atrocities,
which further angers the population, so violence and IRA support spiral

The govt since 2010 have been trying to quash inquiries into torture and murder of IRA suspects - some of them completely innocent

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/26/ex-soldiers-should-not-be-pursued-for-troubles-offences-report-says

Inside Castlereagh: 'We got confessions by torture'
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/oct/11/inside-castlereagh-confessions-torture

Northern Ireland teenagers who told of beatings before murder confessions
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/oct/11/northern-irish-teenagers-tortured-murder

somerville If the UK bins key parts of the GFA - especially if the DUP and hard right ministers like Gove gloat openly about it - wouldn't Republican sentiment change ?

Yes if they openly tore up the GFA then civil war would restart, IMO. However what is considered more likely (unless a hard right winger becomes PM) is a very gradual erosion of EU rights for he Irish-born-in-Ireland/slight hardening of border (two sides of same coin) whilst lip service is still paid to the GFA. And if it's gradual like that, and republican political leaders can keep a firm grip on their most fervent supporters, then there is opportunity to highlight it to play on sympathies in the republic and speed up united Ireland referenda both sides of the border. Rather than resumption of out and out civil war which could scare off the people of the Republic of Ireland from wanting to reunite.

But anything even edging towards the horror of Bloody Sunday or internment will be immediate fuel on the flames of violence, without question. The question is where exactly the point of no return is. It could well be border infrastructure, which both governments know.

btw, the existing Dutch Customs staff number only about 4,600 So it is proportionately a huge increase, that can only be to cope with Brexit

Which the UK will end up paying for. Maybe Dutch customs workers could hold collections for laid off UK car workers as a piece of theatre .. it might be more effective than any number of Daily Mail headlines.

Somerville I'm very worried about some Tory heavyweights like Gove,
who want to abolish the GFA, because they hate Irish Nationalists and want to punish them for past IRA crimes

This is because of their fury that Britain was forced by the IRA and by Bill Clinton to make concessions
Brexit has brought all sorts of poisonous insects out of the political undergrowth

The IRA, if they are clever, might just start a City of London bombing campaign, nothing in NI

The IRA gave the UK a run for it's money, and I have no doubt could do so again. Unlike the swivel-eyed loons of Brexit, they have a very clear vision of what they want - and how to get it. Which makes them so much more dangerous than the amateur-hour Isis/Daesh/Al Queda couldn't-even-decide-on-a-name we are supposed to be quaking in fear of.

The IRA showed an ability to change tactics and strategy - to learn and evolve. Growing up through the 70s and 80s, and into the 90s, they were able to turn the peculiarly English "strength" which it might be argued is the very essence of the stiff-upper-lip against us. (I say "English" very deliberately.) And the funniest - if you have a taste in black humour - thing is that the English have still done nothing to address that weakness ... as these threads in particular are showing.

Sadiq Khan
Disappointing to be asked today in Waltham Forest by some Tory activists “if I was British" and "who I support in the World Cup". Not the London so many of us know and love

Sadiq Khan

why is this man not leader of the Labour Party ?

It really is Groundhog Day: variations of the same story being repeated as nauseum with almost no-one apparently being aware.

Was I the only one shouting at the radio/TV about May's sanctimonious lecturing of the EU of the need for a continued security cooperation in order to save lives? Remind me again who was it who threatened to withdraw security cooperation last March? And who had to be diplomatically told by the EU that they were sure she didn't really mean to be trying to use security as a bargaining chip?

And why isn't the MSM reminding us that she did this less than a year ago?

Let me reassure you, pretty, you weren't alone. (When it comes to shouting at the radio at the sheer stupidity of these people's approach to negotiations, you will never be alone.)

I was shouting at any questions this morning. When a leaver pointed out that 50% of scottish salmon is exported to Taiwan so it was fine to leave the EU, well you get the gist. I wanted someone to point out that if we already do this then why do we need to leave.

But then how many times have we said this? Groundhog day indeed.

Did the AQ leaver really claim that 50% of Scottish salmon went to Taiwan? I was so skeptical of amazed by this that I looked it up.

Exports of Scottish salmon

1 USA £193million worth
2 France £188m
3 China £69m
4 Ireland £34m
5 Taiwan £16m

So not just a stupid point as we can export salmon outside the EU anyway but a factually incorrect one as well .

Henry Bolton has become the latest former ukip leader. Though is apparently considering running again.

I must say, I am quite amused by UKIP's leadership problems. Will Farage ride to the rescue again for the thousandth time, or does even he realise that it's a lost cause now?

How about we all inflitrate ukip now. Then when they have the next leadership campaign in twelve months time we can have a candidate stand and we can all vote for them.

Just for the shits and giggles.

I was wondering earlier if Farage will throw his hat in again, however wasn't he about to set up a whole new shiny party of hate and despair?

Just listened again and I misheard. More to Taiwan than any one EU country. It was Daniel Hannon.

Apparently we will find new markets and all will be fine.

Just listened again and I misheard. More to Taiwan than any one EU country. It was Daniel Hannon.

He was still wrong.

Exports to France = £188 million
Exports to Taiwan = £16 million

So only a factor of 10 out.

scottishsalmon.co.uk/salmon-exports-reach-record-600m/