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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
Eeeeeowwwfftz · 03/02/2018 18:08

I don’t think a swing of 10% in the current political context is unthinkable. How did Tony Blair do it?

Mostly because the LibDems were twice as popular then than they are now. TB got 600k more voters in 97 than JC did last year (if you believe you can ascribe votes to leaders; I’m just using this as a shorthand). That I think puts an upper bound on the 'huge' numbers of people who JC might be putting off voting for labour at the moment. It could be enough for a minority Labour Government.

The LDs returning to their former glory would give you the 10% you’re looking for.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 03/02/2018 18:09

The news never report marches because they are not newsworthy unless, alas, there is any violence at them.

prettybird · 03/02/2018 18:23

Strength of feeling amongst a few UKIP individuals like Nigel Farage : newsworthy.

Strength of feeling amongst tens of thousandsor even hundreds of thousands of the general population: not newsworthy

HmmConfused

DGRossetti · 03/02/2018 18:41

Strength of feeling amongst tens of thousandsor even hundreds of thousands of the general population: not newsworthy

the silenced silent majority ? A la Nixon ?

HesterThrale · 03/02/2018 18:48

BBC report the march.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-42933543/rally-in-london-calls-for-action-on-nhs-crisis

BigChocFrenzy · 03/02/2018 19:27

Don't nitpick on language because you don't like the message
maybe I should have said "imo" instead of my "feeling is"

The factors I listed are real, even if you don't like them

For decades, we had a 2-party political system, with Liberals at a very low level and Labour won under it, not just hung parliaments either

I remember Labour govts in the 1960s and 1970s while the Liberal party support was this low

  • the old quip "you could fit all the Liberal MPs into a phone box"

Voters like Labour policies, just not the current leader.

Under Michael Foot, Labour had policies the country didn't trust, particularly unilateral nuclear disarmament, so the Labour vote plummeted.
So we know Labour's vote can be seriously damaged, if many voters don't trust the leader or party wrt national security and think they aren't "patriotic"

Labour MPs have accidentally allowed a leader to be elected who loses them a significant number of their traditional Labour Right voters, of centrists, of soft Tories, of voters aged 50+

To win GEs, Labour have always needed these kind of voters, but these voters tend to regard Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser, not a good look.
These voters actually vote Tory at GES, to keep Corbyn out of power - local elections are likely quite different.

The only circumstances which would let him become PM are under total disaster for the country - economic crash & social disorder,
e.g. an totally bungled Brexit

No wonder his wing of the party are desperate for him to stay

  • there is actually a small chance this disaster could happen

The Tory Moggsters are playing a dangerous game, hoping he stays as the bogeyman.

I totally agree that Corbyn shouldn't be removed while the members still support him - that's democracy.
However, that's quite different to denying that he's a terrible liability.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/02/2018 19:30

When Labour haven't managed a clear lead after 18 months of the most shambolic Tory govt in living memory,
they are doing something seriously wrong

BigChocFrenzy · 03/02/2018 19:31

woman That NHS march looks HUGE
It should be heading all the news reports

BigChocFrenzy · 03/02/2018 19:43

If Labour looked like becoming the next govt, the BBC would soon change their bias:
they BBC are just licence whores, who will suck up to whoever has the power - or is likely to the power - to chop their budget

woman11017 · 03/02/2018 20:01

Trouble is bigchoc, it's politics, but not as we've ever known it. Not really sure if it's even british politics now. The irony is the fascist alliance, which pimps nationalism, is global.

they are doing something seriously wrong
Corbyn's rubbish. He doesn't deserve a win, and neither do his henchmen and handmaids, but it's choosing between degrees of crapness now.

Parris's article could have applied in many ways to labour as it is right now too.

For sure the JRM machinery is oiled and in action as of this week.
We shall see.......................

DGRossetti · 03/02/2018 21:26

Unprecedented attack on civil service from an MP ?

JRM at it again ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42929071

Prominent Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused Treasury officials of "fiddling the figures" on Brexit to keep the UK in the European Union customs union.

(contd)

missmoon · 03/02/2018 21:44

JRM has become the Donald Trump of UK politics. The persona is very different, but the methods are the same.

woman11017 · 03/02/2018 22:00

'Dream team'

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
woman11017 · 03/02/2018 22:16

Attacks on civil service, immigrants, public service workers, women, trade unionists and students. It's text book stuff. No free press to attack atm. But express is dropping its handbag about the #FBPE on twitter.
The way the A50 legal challenge is being dismissed is relevant too.

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
Icantreachthepretzels · 03/02/2018 22:22

If the brexiteers stage a coup and put Johnson in at no 10 and JRM in as chancellor then the time of peaceful protests is over and it's time to riot.
'the people' did not vote for that!
(they also didn't vote to leave the single market and the customs union as that wasn't on the ballot paper and they assured us that wouldn't happen but...)
It's not only the government that needs to draw red lines. There is no way anyone should put up with being represented by those evil fuckwitted clowns.

missmoon · 03/02/2018 22:23

“Attacks on civil service, immigrants, public service workers, women, trade unionists and students. ”

Also, judges, academics, and the CBI..

RedToothBrush · 03/02/2018 23:50

amp.ft.com/content/c92d3418-0807-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5?__twitter_impression=true
Brexit immigration white paper to be delayed until autumn
May to claim problem of people using education to stay in UK has been tackled

The immigration white paper, originally scheduled for publication last summer, is unlikely to be published before October, according to people briefed on Home Office plans. The UK is due to leave the bloc on March 29, 2019.

The delay comes as prime minister Theresa May is laying the ground for a likely defeat in the House of Commons on student migration by claiming that she has largely stamped out the problem of people using education as a “backdoor” route to staying in the UK.

Why delay the white paper on immigration until AFTER Brexit talks for a deal are due to be completed?

Logically you need the white paper in order to decide on what you want from a deal...

...except of course May doesn't look likely to get her way, we need immigration and the target of tens of thousands of immigrants is a thing of fantasy.

Where does that leave FoM? Where does it live EU citz rights?

If there's no white paper in time...

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 03/02/2018 23:53

The ft reported on the 22nd that we'd also shelved a position paper on financial services post Brexit too.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2018 01:36

(paywall) Tories are lying to the voters and themselves over Brexit

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-are-lying-to-the-voters-and-themselves-over-brexit-r7nc79cw5

Sometimes, the mask slips.
In the Commons this week, Jacob Rees-Mogg, famously the gentleman, Hmm^^
slandered a studious and respected think-tanker and some identifiable Treasury officials.

He did this by repeating a piece of hearsay, echoing it back to the colleague he’d heard it from, so that parliament and the public could hear it too.

Mr Rees-Mogg’s question showed signs of careful preparation and there will be speculation that the pair (the colleague was a minister) had colluded in this exchange.
Perhaps.

The involuntary wince on the face of the Brexit secretary David Davis spoke volumes.

The story was entirely false.
The House has now heard an apology from Rees-Mogg’s ministerial colleague.
But from Gentleman Jake?
From the man who published the story? Only slippery evasion.

In parliament on Thursday Rees-Mogg asked Steve Baker, a junior Brexit minister, a question.
Would Baker confirm that Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, had told Baker over lunch that
Treasury officials “had deliberately developed an impact assessment model to show that all options other than staying in the customs union were bad, and that officials intended to use this to influence policy”.

From the dispatch box Baker replied.
This was “essentially correct”.
He fumbled as Labour opponents challenged him, and said he was only confirming that he had heard the allegation.
He added that it would be “extraordinary” if true.

Hours later, Prospect magazine, which had hosted the lunch, posted the audio recording.
Mr Grant had said no such thing.
Yesterday morning Baker apologised.
Rees-Mogg has not.

He should.
Instead he issued a volley of irritable tweets last night suggesting (incorrectly) that Treasury officials would have been breaking the rules if they talked to research institutes, unless bidden by ministers.

Senior civil servants talk routinely to research institutes; it’s their job.
He then suggested the chancellor may have been freelancing.
One more person to whom he now owes an apology.

And the incident is revealing.
Wrong-footed, his good manners depart and snarls break through the politesse.
His cloak of courtesy slipping so easily on and off his shoulders,

It’s revealing, too, about the Brexit ultras:
so blinded by zealotry as to think it even remotely likely that senior civil servants would cook the figures;
so blinded by zealotry as not even to check with the alleged source of the story

  • but instead to take a flyer with the facts and the proprieties
in the cause of some supposed greater good: Brexit.

With a complicit prime minister and a supine cabinet trailing in its wake,
Europhobia - this mutant gene in the Conservative body politic now spreading its cancer through the whole government - is moving from idiocy to dishonesty.

There were scrupulous assessments, said ministers, of the impact of Brexit on the British economy.
Then they didn’t exist.
Then they did, and would be published.
This proved a bag of wind, scrabbled together, vacuous.
Then it emerged via the Buzzfeed website that the Treasury had indeed done some careful work; and some was leaked.
Then ministers said the work was incomplete and hadn’t been signed off by ministers and didn’t represent government thinking and wouldn’t be given to MPs - and anyway they could see it once negotiations were complete (bejesus).
Then MPs insisted on seeing it, so ministers said it would be handed over - but only to Hilary Benn, Labour chairman of the Brexit committee.

Oh for pity’s sake.
If you’re going to set a nation on a daring but risky course, you examine the options - of course you do.
You do the cost-benefit analyses - that’s what civil servants are for.

Some of the reports will describe costs.
How could it be otherwise?
There is every reason why ministers should have wanted these studies, no reason to be ashamed they exist, and every reason to be open about both the process and the results.

If you believe in Brexit, where’s the shame in acknowledging that there are costs and uncertainties and you wanted to know and face up to them?

You then add that civil servants are naturally precise about costs but cautious about benefits, but that you can see the bigger, brighter picture.

So why all the furtiveness? Hmm
“Disingenuous” doesn’t do it justice. This is fraud.

Isn’t it now clear that the government doesn’t believe in what it’s doing,
can’t even decide how to do it,
hasn’t the guts to say so,
and is trying to creep forward under cover of fog, wretchedly hoping something will turn up?

If Theresa May and her cabinet were a prisoner in the dock, mumbling and stumbling, avoiding our eyes, and under pressure dribbling out banalities, repetitions and evasions, the jury would need about thirty seconds to decide.

Guilt is all over the pages of this contemptible Tory story.

They know (most of them) that the referendum placed voters in an impossible position.
They know that, narrowly, the voters made a mistake.
They can see this is becoming plain.

They know - the majority that are not zealots - that our party is now acting against the interests of our country.
And nobody has the spine to say so.

They speak to us, this sane majority of Tory backbenchers and ministers, like hostages with a gun to their head telling the world that everything’s OK.
And the gun is being held by perhaps fewer than fifty zealots: about a sixth of them.

The means are the same as with Suez and Iraq but half the cabinet and most of the parliamentary party don’t even believe in the ends.
I seriously doubt whether Boris Johnson does.

A terrified, paralysed prime minister leads a seasick party and doubting government towards she knows not what.

Wickedness may not always lie in the carrying forward of bad projects.
It may also lie in allowing oneself to be carried forward by them, knowing their wrongfulness.
Perhaps that is the more culpable, for zealots at least believe their madness.

A special kind of guilt attaches to the sane majority of the Conservative Party today.
It is written across their faces.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 04/02/2018 09:13

If it shows just how important the NHS is or possibly how bad privatisation of it could go, an acquaintance in America has just seen the price of their insulin raise from just over $8 to just under $82 for the same unit size.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 04/02/2018 09:26

Brexit attacks on civil service ‘are worthy of 1930s Germany’

Ex-cabinet secretary attacks tactics of leading Brexiters who have accused Whitehall of sabotaging UK’s exit from EU

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/03/brexit-civil-service-1930s-germany?__twitter_impression=true

howabout · 04/02/2018 09:28

"... And the gun is being held by perhaps fewer than fifty zealots: about a sixth of them."

The problem with the narrative that it is only about 50 Conservative MPs who are in favour of Brexit is that opinion polling indicates they speak 65% upwards of Tory voters and a third of everyone else.

woman11017 · 04/02/2018 09:39

Mogg's supporters on his FB page advocating further violence against women. I'm not reproducing it here. JRM had meeting with Bannon earlier this week. Breitbart happened to be in Bristol to film the event. Mogg knowingly lies to HOC, and slanders a public servant. Doesn't apologise.

It's so like trump, it's embarrassing.

JC is so like Bernie, they must be thrilled.