Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

[RedToothBrush]

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

From yahoo

YahooNEWS
Tories and Labour level in latest poll - but most people think Theresa May would make the best PM
David Harding
David Harding
Yahoo News UK2 February 2018
Neck and neck in the polls – The Conservatives are now level in the polls with Labour and most people think Theresa May makes a better PM than Jeremy Corbyn (Rex)
Neck and neck in the polls – The Conservatives are now level in the polls with Labour and most people think Theresa May makes a better PM than Jeremy Corbyn (Rex)
More
The Conservatives have drawn back level with Labour, according the latest opinion poll from YouGov.

If there was a General Election tomorrow, pollsters say the two main parties would each get 42% support.

The Tories were a point behind in the last poll by YouGov – though other polls have put the party ahead.

The Lib Dems are trailing on just six per cent.

And in another boost for the Tories, YouGov also asked who people thought would make the best prime minister.

And despite almost seemingly a daily crisis in her fragile government Theresa May polled best on 35%, six percentage points ahead of Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn.

The polls were carried out on January 28/29.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (Rex)
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (Rex)
It comes as Mrs May faces fresh pressure over Brexit.

This time she is being urged to clarify where she stands on Britain’s future trade agreements.

The prime minister has said Britain would not face a choice between a free trade deal with the EU after Brexit and striking deals with the rest of the world.

Some Eurosceptic Tory MPs that she is heading for a ‘Brexit in name only’.

Brexit negotiations are due to restart next week – and on Friday David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, took to Twitter to say he was ‘looking forward’ to the next set of negotiations.

At the same time, Labour’s leader appears not to have done enough to pick up voters disatissfied with the government, despite it also being attacked on keys issues such as the NHS and transport in recent weeks

I think one of my worries is that no matter how labour does over the next few years JC will refuse to stand down. I am a labour supporter but really don't think he can win an outright majority. I could be wrong but that's how I feel. And I also feel like he will cling to power for as long as he can. Like I say I could be wrong but it's a feeling I have.

Jacob Rees-Mogg
@JacobReesMogg
1/5 The recording of Charles Grant’s Prospect lunch raises more questions about the Treasury’s behaviour #TreasuryGate

2/5 When Mr. Grant says ‘The Treasury is determined to keep us in the Customs Union’ does he mean the Chancellor or officials? If the Chancellor, it is a breach of collective responsibility, if officials, against their duty to implement Government policy #TreasuryGate

3/5 When Mr. Grant refers to ‘unpublished papers’ on the Customs Union, who commissioned these and authorised him to be told? Again, if officials, improper for them to tell a partisan think-tank leader before most of the Government or Parliament #TreasuryGate

4/5 Mr. Grant refers to private conversations with Treasury officials. Have these been authorised by Ministers or are officials freelancing? #TreasuryGate

5/5 The conclusion must be either the Chancellor or his officials are deliberately trying to frustrate Brexit. Ultimately, Ministers must take responsibility #TreasuryGate

Someone's rattled. Trying to divert from the findings?

Go JRM ! You don't have to like the singer, to admire the song.

That said, it would be nice if the same forensic analysis of Leave could have been aired whenever they made a statement ....

impact assessments

While the UK govt have been doing the Dance of the 7 Veils on this,
the EU have long been publishing their sector reports
e.g. rights of citizens, financial services, Ireland

There is also one on the impact for Scotland, Wales & Gibraltar, which is more than the UK govt - the responsible govt - produced

publications.europa.eu/en/web/general-publications/brexit

Surprise.
These seem better quality ones too, more facts, higher level analysis, compared to the (redacted) reports published on the HoC site.

Corbyn fired up the left of the Labour party, who had stopped bothering to vote for Labour
and created a new army of activists who will campaign for Labour

However, he puts off many in the centre ground, crucial to forming a new govt

• these voters' fear / dislike of Corbyn's past exceeds their fear / dislike of the Tory present

He also repels many on the Labour right, many older traditional Labour voters, most Jewish people anywhere on the left

We can see this by Labour consistently only 1-2% ahead in the polls, unable to pull ahead in the clear
The godawful mess, incompetence, bungling idiocy, open civil war of the Tories is unprecedented post-war, so Labour should be 20%+ ahead
Under another leader, from the Labour centre or even respectable soft left, they would indeed be 20% ahead

We probably need to wait for the new generation to push out the 3rd rate old hacks in both parties

• reports claim that the 2010 intake had the brightest new MPs for 30 years (not saying much !) The 2015 intake is making its mark too.

Good possible leaders for Labour: Keir Starmer, Dan Jarvis
and maybe the Tories will rejuvenate later under Ruth Davidson, Sajid Javid, Tom Tugendhat

Farage is speaking at the Hist in Trinity AFAIK. It's a student debate society with a history of inviting controversial speakers.

Irexit is not a thing no matter how much he waffles on.

Even I, who voted Labour in the last election, can see the talent shining out of Ruth Davidson. She would be a possible future for the Tories, but with all their modernising under Cameron, where are the New Blues? Just crushingly dominated by the swivelled-eyed loons...

So I turn to Labour - and I'm of the old guard NL posse - and it makes me feel my age (all 40 years). When I was a young'un I remember voting for that wiper-snapper Blair.... Anyway. Enough. We're not there and I completely understand the Corbyn gloom.

What's the solution? Hold out for the next generation from either side, and vote something else in the meanwhile, or vote tactically.

Something shines out of ruth davidson but it's not talent.

Convenient timing for mogg's 'fracas'?

@britainelects
Falmouth Smithwick (Cornwall) result:
LAB: 60.2% (+19.9)
CON: 17.2% (-7.2)
LDEM: 17.2% (-1.7)
GRN: 5.3% (-11.0)

Another Nazi tory.

In regard to labour I don't think it is the move to the left that is the issue and I am not convinced a move back to the centre would help (Ed Milliband anyone?). Polls have previously shown good support for Corbyn's policies but low support outside his base for Corbyn himself. I think the same policies but a different face would do very well. If you look at what the manifesto actually says it's really not that far left at all. It's just everything has moved so far to the right in recent years it makes public railways, higher taxes for the wealthy and more money for the NHS sound positively Maxist.

Of course who should replace him is a different matter. It really needs to be someone unsullied by the new labour years and not too tarred by the party infighting. The problem is that there hasn't been time yet for the new generation to start to show if there is anyone new with potential coming up the ranks. That could take years and we really don't have years. It's all a bloody mess to be honest.

At least you said it about Ruth Woman - I was biting my lip.

Scots have a somewhat less rose-tinted view of her naked ambition talent, having seen her hypocrisy two facedness politics at close quarters

But I will acknowledge that compared to the current crop of Westminster Conservative MPs, she does seem more electorally attractive but that's not saying much when you are measuring against JRM, Gove or BoJo

prettybird I'm having a little holiday from biting my lip. I continue to be so impressed with NS, especially now. She always was a talent, but she's outshining so many of them right now; and I used to be labour. (and british)

I agree, bigly Corbyn's policies are quite traditional Labour and it's time that voters had a better choice than Tory vs soft Tory.
However, Labour need an electable leader to propose those policies, or indeed to propose any other policies

• too many voters will never vote Labour while Corbyn leads them.

Both parties need renewal and imo there are some quite talented younger pols who would do much better than the current lot

• talent, even learning on the job, would be so much better than the mediocre deadweights currently running things in both oarties.

I am very impressed by NS too.
The Scot Nats are often referred to as one of the "small parties" but they certainly aren't small in their own nation
and they don't seem parochial or othering, nothing like the DUP.
With about 100k members, they probably are quite near to the numbers the Tory party has.

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove to warn against post-Brexit Customs Union in 'explosive' Cabinet confrontation

Bojo & Gove plotting again and causing trouble for May

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/02/exclusive-boris-johnson-michael-gove-warn-against-post-brexit/

and avoid a hard border in Ireland.

is the sentence which stood out for me. Not because May needs the DUP to keep the Tories in power, but that a hard border compromises the GFA - which is an international treaty.

I do wish that May would tell Gove and Johnson to STFU - I think she could risk it - Johnson didn't stand for election, and Gove got nowhere, so she could challenge them by asking why they aren't PM and she is.

Oh look! A squirrel consultation on marriage law reform!

Telegraph article on marriage consultation

“There is a dogma in Irish society about the EU and the reaction to this conference has shown it very clearly,” Lucey said. “We should be able to debate these issues rationally and in the open.”

What a sly bastard Cormac Lucey is.
He has co-opted language arising from the struggle for secularism in Ireland to use about the popularity of the EU. He is implying that Irish people have had something shoved down their throats and that they are being blindly obedient to some diktat from an oppressive source.

Is this to distract from the Tory run council that’s gone bust?
www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/02/tory-run-council-runs-out-of-money-to-meet-obligations

Imagine if it was a Labour run council which had gone bust - the Press would be all over it, mismanagement, loony policies etc..

In the telegraph

I think I might just run away with Marina Hyde. Sometimes it seems like she is the only sane person around.

Theresa May, I fear that both of us will have to get used to disappointment
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/02/theresa-may-brexit-future-disappointment-fact-free