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Brexit

Westministers: Happy New Year?

976 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/01/2018 11:37

And so we enter a New Year full of hope that things might just be about to recover from our national nervous breakdown... or perhaps not.

As we have Damien Green ejected from his role as Deputy PM over allegations of inappropriate conduct towards woman and use of porn at the end of last year, 2018 sees a bright new progressive dawn with the appointment to the role of universities regulator of Toby Young. A man who has deleted 20,000 tweets including many which are inappropriate and offensive to women, is a fan of eugenics and hates the working class and disabled.

Meanwhile the NHS is facing a crisis which is totally unexpected to the government and couldn't possibly have been planned for by a man who has over seen it for over five years. Which naturally bodes really well for Brexit planning.

We are apparently planning to join the TPP. Never mind geopolitics we can move the UK to the Pacific region.

We still are not ready for trade talks because the Cabinet can not agree on anything. Not that it sounds like they have actually discussed anything along these lines yet.

Rumours are that the Cabinet - including arch leavers such as Gove - are leaning towards supporting May and a softer option, despite the disgust of Johnson, who once again is the subject of malicious chatter about his sacking in a forthcoming Cabinet Reshuffle.

There is talk of further Tory Party war with the revelation that membership of the party has dropped to a core of just 70,000 hardline authoritarian men, most of whom are over 60. Tory HQ now wants to (perhaps with some good reason to prevent the loons) rewrite the constitution and limit the power of local associations to select candidates. The Tory party is now lining up to be a power struggle between internal authoritarians, who don't like democracy voices or structure.

Meanwhile the Labour Party membership now apparently overwhelmingly looks upon staying in the customs union and single market favourably and is in favour of a second referendum. In opposition to the leadership who are utterly committed to Hard Brexit. Much to the annoyance of Lord Adonis who is pitching a fit about government corruption and incompetence and being accused of being elite because he going skiing. Unlike of prominent Leavers who are in touch with the working class.

And finally Nigel Farage has got a meeting with Barnier. Farage, unlike Clegg, Clarke and Adonis, will not be accused by the Right Wing Press of undermining the government's negotiating position because...

It appears that we are in for another year of Brexit nonsense then.

We've not even heard mention of Gibraltar yet.

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RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 11:17

Artisan if you are under 40, even if you are on a very high salary you might struggle to buy a property in parts of the country that your status would suggest you should be able to buy a house in and people ten years older have.

These traditional conservative voters have been priced out by capitalism to what they think they should be entitled to.

Why should they believe in capitalism anymore?

They are also afraid they will be forced to pay for the health and social care of their parents as well as their own.

Doesn't that make taking something of a hit on wages seem more worthwhile? They don't view it as losing something. They get something out of the deal they view as losing out on more through capitalism which has already failed them...

As I say. Least worst option thinking.

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RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 11:18

This by Joshua Rozenberg on MoJ appointments (from fb)

A NEW MINISTRY OF JUSTICE

Despite acquiring its sixth Secretary of State in as many years, the Ministry of Justice seems to have emerged well from the reshuffle.

David Lidington was well liked but failed to persuade the Prime Minister to launch the Courts Bill that Theresa May had promised in the Queen’s Speech more than six months ago. That bill was meant to reinstate provisions in the failed Prisons and Courts Bill that senior judges regarded as “essential” to the success of the current £1bn courts reform programme.

Less than 24 hours into the job, Lidington's successor David Gauke put in a measured and unshowy performance answering questions about the Parole Board’s decision to release John Worboys on licence. Gauke announced a departmental review of the board’s (lack of) transparency, to report by Easter, while reaffirming its independence. This was the right call.

Gauke is a commercial lawyer by training and the first solicitor to hold the post. As Bob Neill MP observed, it’s nice to see it’s still possible for a lawyer to become Lord Chancellor. Let’s hope Gauke's experience at the Treasury will stand him in good stead if there are more funding cuts in the offing.

I’m not sorry to see Dominic Raab leave the Ministry of Justice — in a sideways move to Housing rather than the promotion he must have hoped for. Writing in the October issue of Counsel Magazine, I argued that Raab had not yet acquired the self-confidence and judgment that should come from ministerial experience.

He also ordered HM Courts and Tribunals Service to turn down the request I made last summer for a further briefing on the court reforms programme, about which I shall be delivering a major lecture next month.

Raab's successor, Rory Stewart OBE, is a man used to weighing up risks and he will surely see that the damage caused by Raab’s insistence on a publicity blackout for the reforms since the last general election outweighs any advantage to be gained from keeping the public in the dark.

Finally, Sam Gyimah has been replaced as prisons minister by Lucy Frazer QC. I’ve only visited two or three prisons during the past two or three years and I don’t follow subject closely. But reducing the prison population remains an urgent priority.

Lidington has managed to keep the lid on the looming prisons crisis during the past few months and his junior minister can share some of the credit. But Gyimah has always struck me as something of a lightweight.

Frazer, by contrast, was a commercial barrister, a pupil of the hugely impressive David Anderson QC and a member of South Square Chambers in Gray’s Inn before she became an MP less than three years ago. Lidington chose her as his parliamentary private secretary. A former president of the Cambridge Union, Frazer took silk at the age of 40. She comes from a Jewish family in Leeds and is married with two children.

I have high hopes of these new ministers. I’m sure the Foreign Office and Department for International Development were surprised and sorry to lose Stewart as their Minister of State. But their loss is the MoJ’s gain.

Dr Philip Lee remains a junior minister and, at time of writing, Lord Keen of Elie QC remains the Ministry of Justice spokesman in the House of Lords (when he’s not being HM Advocate General for Scotland).

The Attorney General Jeremy Wright QC and the Solicitor General Robert Buckland QC remain in post, doing rather better at surviving than most of their colleagues at the Ministry of Justice. And Shailesh Vara, a junior minster there from 2013 to 2016 and a solicitor, is back in government at the Northern Ireland Office.

There are huge challenges ahead and those of us who follow these matters will do their best to hold these new ministers to account.

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RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 11:33

Andrew Lilico‏ @andrew_lilico
Am I right that @JacobReesMogg got no job in the reshuffle? Doesn't that seem like a mistake?

James Harris @JamesHarris1u
Yes. Kwasi Kwarteng omitted, too

Two good points.

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woman11017 · 10/01/2018 11:40

Kwasi Kwarteng is a Boris Johnson ally, no?
Found this ancient article from last Sep on actual paucity of Johnson allies.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/09/boris-johnson-has-problem-he-doesnt-have-any-friends

As I say, EVERYTHING is about the Withdrawal Bill. It is more important than EU negotiations
Terrifying this one^.
January 16th rally outside parliament if any one's around.

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 11:40

Andrew Allison @andrew_allison
.@afneil has just suggested that the reshuffle was a "proverbial piss up in a brewery". BBC bosses won't like that, no matter how accurate the statement is. #bbcdp.

He did. Live on BBC2.

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artisancraftbeer · 10/01/2018 11:42

@RedToothBrush - I agree with you completely. It was just interesting that many of these people are or will be QCs in a lucrative area of law, or partners in large accountancy or law forms where they can earn ££££ and they felt the conservatives had nothing to offer the country any more, mainly because of brexit.

Of course that's relying on the glimmer of hope that Corbyn sees sense...

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 11:45

My guess is that the audience in artisan's meeting was comprised of quite a few over-40s, wealthy, business people. I strongly suspect that warm feelings towards Labour are motivated less by anti-capitalist sentiments than a. positive memories of Blair-era Labour, which the current Labour administration hasn't quite dispelled, b. horror at the anti-business implications of Brexit, which the current Conservative administration is singularly failing to dispel, c. a deep feeling of betrayal around the rhetoric of the current Conservative government, which seems to position itself towards social conservatism, rather than economics. (c) is, I think, interesting, because I suspect there is a strange issue with that. I strongly suspect it is quite repellant, in a number of ways.

woman11017 · 10/01/2018 11:46

Bet Neil comes out with the BBC sisterhood next!
BBC men are allowed to tweet about it, BBC women aren't.

CardinalSin · 10/01/2018 11:54

I don't get all this Dominic Raab love. He's an odious scumbag and my local MP with Nazi tendencies. A rabid Leaver not representing his Remain constituency.

DGRossetti · 10/01/2018 11:54

But reducing the prison population remains an urgent priority.

a good place to start might be to stop dreaming up new "offences", and reviewing the 3,500 or so new laws that got racked up 1997-2007.

We get the laws we can afford. As some are now discovering.

prettybird · 10/01/2018 11:54

Cllr Tom Bewick's maths are a bit suspect if he thinks that the 4 million Leave voters are enough to get a Labour government in Confused

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 11:56

I'm wondering if Red's analysis of the reshuffle producing a more pragmatic and competent 'Brexit Department outwith the DExEU' will be enough to reassure business.

My guess is 'no'. The ridiculous cake-and-eating-it rhetoric - aimed at the clueless Leave wing - will continue: and business is hating that.

Pragmatically, the whole issues about Finance and Services is pretty desperate. Davis and Hammond have now resorted to 'Project Fear' tactics - invoking fear of a financial crash if the City is not protected in Brexit.

Thing is, everyone knows how bad Brexit threatens to be for the City. And the clear solution is for HQs to relocate to EU countries. Davis and Hammond's threat is not massively effective. And it just underscores how long they have peddled the line that Brexit has no downsides, in the face of all evidence to the contrary. For anyone who has been actually having to follow Brexit, and do their own forecasts, it just underlines the mismatch between public Conservative rhetoric - aimed at the clueless Leave wing - and the reality.

It cannot do anything, I think, other than make the Conservatives look as though they have been irresponsible, incompetent, and have utterly betrayed business.

It makes Labour look honest, and realistic, by comparison.

And I think the social conservatism is a killer. Look at how we react when some Labour dinosaur spouts that sort of speech. It reeks of "pubs, Wormwood Scrubs, and too many right-wing meetings" (to steal from The Jam). That is not what a lot of well-off people want to smell like.

DGRossetti · 10/01/2018 12:12

And the clear solution is for HQs to relocate to EU countries.

Even if we cancelled Brexit tomorrow, this would continue ....after all a dog that has bitten once, may bite again.

The UK has already pissed away any financial advantages to being in the UK (so a tactic to watch out for from Brexiteers will be: well, we've come this far, and trotted so quick ). Really, the only thing worth salvaging might be FoM Sad.

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 12:13

Social conservatism is a killer. Which is why regressive changes in this area are being dressed up as progressive.

Its meaningless unless you have a proper understanding of the principles and reasons underpinning rights issues.

As we've seen, its possible to do, and for seemingly educated people to buy into. You can spin anything.

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 10/01/2018 12:14

cardinal he’s mine too! Raab the Dishonouraable

BigChocFrenzy · 10/01/2018 12:24

imo, there's one group of Ultra Brexit ministers who are just there to keep them out of mischief and to pacify the other Ultras.

then there is a another small group - plus senior civil servant Ollie Robbins in May's Cabinet Office - who are aftually doing the work of trying to Brexit as painlessly as possible.

Group 1's bungling may yet scupper the best work of Group 2

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 12:28

Well, The Guardian has printed an article outlining the perils of a No Deal Braxit, drawing on the EU's message: here.

It makes me wonder about the effect of the EU strategy of talking over the head of the Conservative government, directly the the UK electorate/business community.

At the very least, I think it has the effect of making the Conservative government appear disingenuous and untrustworthy.

woman that is interesting - I wonder if the message is getting through, and to whom?

I do think that this is part of the support for Labour. And I do think that it is, as Red says, a question of support/votes lent, in the expectation - and hope - of something.

And that brings me to something I've been wondering. I wonder if we've reached a point where we can discuss the differences between Corbynism and Corbyn.

Corbynism is a sort of political grouping, or cloud, that is a progressive politics that is at variance with hard Right politics, neo-liberal politics; is a move away from the supposed compromises of Blair-era Labour politics; is socially progressive; has an edge of 'glocalism'; is appealing to a wide swathe of left-leaning people. I suspect it's pretty anti-Brexit.
It's a bit fuzzy but is very popular.

Corbyn, the individual, is another matter altogether. And I wonder two things: How does Corbynism fare when Corbyn the person (who has some serious flaws as an actual leader) every so often appears to interrupt it; how will Corbynism (which seems to me to be a somewhat heterogenous and hegemonic project) fare when reality causes it to rupture along its various constitutive lines?

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 13:10

I wonder if these two articles are part of growing pressure on Labour to adopt a less wibbly stance on Brexit?

Labour will be more pro-SM in Spring

Labour MPS complain about Corbyn's no-SM comment

Or perhaps it's just wishful thinking and briefing by those who have no real power to effect a change of direction?

Honestly, i sometimes think that being a Labour supporter is a little like being in a relationship where there is a lot of (MN term alert) gaslighting. Sad

mrsreynolds · 10/01/2018 13:23

Made the mistake of watching 2 mins of PMQs
HOW is labour not 30 points ahead in the polls!?
That vile woman and her minions are going to destroy my country
I’m so so angry

DGRossetti · 10/01/2018 13:25

I have been in contact with my local Labour (newbie) MP several times since they were elected.

Any mention of Brexit hasn't received a reply, whereas anything else has got the A-Team involved.

I also contacted the local labour party and have heard diddly squat.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 10/01/2018 13:26

Paul Waugh
‏*@paulwaugh*
Senior Labour spokesman on Virgin ban of Daily Mail: "Jeremy is a supporter of a free press. There will be no bans on a publicly owned railway."

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 14:09

Re Ellesmere Port. Was going to happen, with or without Brexit. Plant is dated and there are issues relating to the French owners. The long term viability of the plant was questionable on the 22nd June 2016. That didn't change the day after.

I'm wondering if Red's analysis of the reshuffle producing a more pragmatic and competent 'Brexit Department outwith the DExEU' will be enough to reassure business.

From what I am seeing on twitter, there is simply tremendous confusion over the changes at MoJ. Why Rory Stewart? It baffled me, but I do think it comes into focus if you consider what is May's ultimate priority.

Only David Allen Green has really reflected on it and pointed out just how crucial and central the Repel Bill is, to the stability of the government and where it lies in the priorities for government.

I find this quite astonishing. All journalists should be on top of this and should be aware of it.

I think @ SamCoatesTimes has been one of the closest to reflect on the balance of right wing/liberal power the reshuffle has made but made no reference to the MoJ (He mentioned the Cabinet Office and Treasury instead).

The press across the board is more interested in the drama of EU negotiations and only want to talk of the Rebel Bill along the lines of rebels and the prospect of a Corbyn government because, again drama.

None of this would change the implications of triggering article 50.

Its sloppy.

Business won't change decisions based on shifts in power that are silent in the press. The press creates political power by reporting. If they don't report then the effect isn't amplified.

Discussion = changing of overton window.

Whilst what is going on in parallel to DExEU is important come 29 March 2019, if its not discussed by the press then decisions being made outside government are not being influenced.

Of course the danger in pointing out shifts in power within government in this way, is also that the illusion will be shattered and we'll end up with No Deal!

I guess some savvy businesses might spot it, but they will also be keen to safeguard and can't afford to take the gamble that the Parallel Team will win through. They have to plan for the worst case scenario as its simply basic risk management.

Politician might be able to play high stakes games of risk, but businesses are much less able to do this because change takes time and they can not afford to expose themselves.

(Btw, nerd fact: Rory Stewart's birth name is Roderick Stewart. No wonder he goes by Rory.)

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RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 14:35

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Justine Greening sat on the backbenches at PMQs close to the Soubry et al “naughty step”...

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