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Brexit

Westministers: Happy New Year?

976 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/01/2018 11:37

And so we enter a New Year full of hope that things might just be about to recover from our national nervous breakdown... or perhaps not.

As we have Damien Green ejected from his role as Deputy PM over allegations of inappropriate conduct towards woman and use of porn at the end of last year, 2018 sees a bright new progressive dawn with the appointment to the role of universities regulator of Toby Young. A man who has deleted 20,000 tweets including many which are inappropriate and offensive to women, is a fan of eugenics and hates the working class and disabled.

Meanwhile the NHS is facing a crisis which is totally unexpected to the government and couldn't possibly have been planned for by a man who has over seen it for over five years. Which naturally bodes really well for Brexit planning.

We are apparently planning to join the TPP. Never mind geopolitics we can move the UK to the Pacific region.

We still are not ready for trade talks because the Cabinet can not agree on anything. Not that it sounds like they have actually discussed anything along these lines yet.

Rumours are that the Cabinet - including arch leavers such as Gove - are leaning towards supporting May and a softer option, despite the disgust of Johnson, who once again is the subject of malicious chatter about his sacking in a forthcoming Cabinet Reshuffle.

There is talk of further Tory Party war with the revelation that membership of the party has dropped to a core of just 70,000 hardline authoritarian men, most of whom are over 60. Tory HQ now wants to (perhaps with some good reason to prevent the loons) rewrite the constitution and limit the power of local associations to select candidates. The Tory party is now lining up to be a power struggle between internal authoritarians, who don't like democracy voices or structure.

Meanwhile the Labour Party membership now apparently overwhelmingly looks upon staying in the customs union and single market favourably and is in favour of a second referendum. In opposition to the leadership who are utterly committed to Hard Brexit. Much to the annoyance of Lord Adonis who is pitching a fit about government corruption and incompetence and being accused of being elite because he going skiing. Unlike of prominent Leavers who are in touch with the working class.

And finally Nigel Farage has got a meeting with Barnier. Farage, unlike Clegg, Clarke and Adonis, will not be accused by the Right Wing Press of undermining the government's negotiating position because...

It appears that we are in for another year of Brexit nonsense then.

We've not even heard mention of Gibraltar yet.

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Peregrina · 10/01/2018 08:38

Back in the Sixties my school had a 'school fund'. I have no idea whether it was a compulsory 'voluntary' donation. We were also expected to support a charity each term.

mrsreynolds · 10/01/2018 09:04

We've had to buy ££££ of set texts and revision guides for our year 10 ds
Those kids whose parents cant afford it have to use school copies at lunchtime and after school and obv aren't allowed to annotate them
It's just wrong
Yet again the less advantaged kids suffer

DGRossetti · 10/01/2018 09:24

Just caught another thread elsewhere which suddenly made me wonder if the bid to dump the ECHR might have less to do with the UK, and more to do with the countries the Brexiteers think they can exploit and plunder (again) Hmm

It's interesting that at present UK law (probably through delegated EU law ?) places loads of restrictions on how UK companies do business. Anti bribery, anti slavery for a start.

DGRossetti · 10/01/2018 09:30

I also notice that the petition to leave the EU immediately is being debated (22nd).

Maybe this is Jezzas master moment. He should get Labour to vote for it (along with the Tory nutters). It's not at all what I'd want. But it might short circuit the path to 2019 ??????????????

(Of course in reality, "Leave the EU immediately" is no more clear than "Leave the EU")

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 09:33

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
Losing Lidington and Raab from MoJ will have a serious knock-on effect for EU Withdrawal Bill.

They were the two most able ministers dealing the devil of the legalistic detail.

Now new ministers will have to master the detail, from scratch, while Bill is mid-passage.

A mess.

The sensible move re Brexit would have been to have promoted Raab to Justice Secretary until Withdrawal Bill had been finally passed.

Bill already delayed and too complex. Getting yet more ministers up to legalistic speed will cause more problems against a strict timetable.

Robert Kaye @ rpkaye
I suspect Lidington will continue to do it from CabOff, it's not an MoJ lead anyway.

Noteworthy as this was taken away from Davis. Went to Lidington, and now responsibility of solicitor Gawke and the very able and Brexit savvy Rory Stewart.

It seems that there is almost two parallel Brexit implementing structures in government.

On the one hand you have the Cabinet Office and the MoJ who contain Ollie Robbins who seems to be head Brexit negotiator despite Davis officially having the title. He is now joined by Lidington, in a role which seems most closely aligned to the department than Green was. By not making him Deputy Pm (or whatever the bullshit title), May has effectively given the department as a whole more influence. Lidington is regarded as an arch remainer.

The MoJ appointments are also two realists. We know this about Stewart cos he talked about Brexit complexity before anyone else did. He says he will support Brexit and I think he's the type to be sincere about that. This is a man who previously worked in East Timor, post Kosovo Montenegro and post invasion Iraq. He does difficult and diplomatic. It does make a lot more sense to put him here in this context.

Gawke, I'm not sure we know much about his Brexit position. But a) he's regarded as the clean up king, who gets shoved from department to department to sort out the mess there. B) he's a solicitor and most of the rebels are law types. He'll speak their language, understand principles, and I would not be surprised if he didn't share many of their concerns.

Between Robbins, Lidington, Gawke and Stewart you have some of the most pragmatic, rational and able hands in government. They understand the principles and the devil in the detail. They are about as 'safe' as you are going to get.

On the other hand you have the Brexit department made up of the lazy, delusional, self serving, liars who are totally out of touch and are like a dog chasing its own tail. Davis once upon a time was regarded as able. Now he just looks like someone who can't be bothered to turn up at the office, is eight steps behind everyone else, does a lot of undermining of everyone and just seems utterly clueless. The irony to me is he also doesn't seem fully committed. Straight after the election he pitched staying in the customs union and single market. Then backed away sharpish when May stayed. There have been a few other times when I wondered if he had moments of Bregret too. He largely seems to just be confused.

Then theres Baker and Fernandes. Both clueless ideologs without an ounce of integrity or realism between them.

I have to ask, who really gas power here and are these two groups just competing, with the whole of the Brexit department effectively just being ministers for no deal and no real interest in the contrary. With the exception of the befuddled Davis, whose purpose perhaps is now to talk the language of Brexit to Brexiteers to keep them happy with ridiculous spin and give the illusion that Leave is winning whilst the able students elsewhere in government do the real legwork. The hope being that Leavers lack the capacity to understand or see through it. And of course adding another minister there is a great deflection tactic. Makes you look serious at the Department even if its effectively being sidelined.

Remember Raab is a leaver too. If this is the intent that that would explain why he was moved too.

If im right it suggests a seriousness about Brexit and a real intent to Brexit. But to do so softly and safely. More so than Leavers will be anywhere near happy about.

If No Deal wins through, then the careers of those in the MoJ and Cabinet Office less likely to be damaged. Ownership will fail on the Delusionals.

If Davis has come over to the Dark Side and is now effectively a 'remain or soft brexit double agent' then his role might not be very much different to what it is now! And would it explain the mysterious disappearing impact studies saga?

He has said he will stand down after this parliament. His legacy will be judged on getting a deal. Not getting no deal, which his junior ministers are in it for.

I don't know. Just some wild speculating whilst trying to work out the implications and thought process behind the reshuffle and the more curious and significant changes in staff.

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RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 09:42

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
Interesting story from @pmdfoster re the ^“Three Baskets” approach outlined at Florence and to Cabinet last month:
German hostility risks derailing UK plans for bespoke Brexit trade deal^
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/09/german-opposition-risks-derailing-uk-hopes-bespoke-brexit-trade/amp/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AqBfp0sZHYMQ&__twitter_impression=true
German hostility risks derailing UK plans for bespoke Brexit trade deal

reality of the Three Baskets approach is that the Government does recognise that there are sectors, perhaps quite a few, for which it expects and would like to continue total alignment with EU rules ...
This @instituteforgov report cited by Peter as being used in Brussels as a proxy for UK Government thinking:
This @instituteforgov report cited by Peter as being used in Brussels as a proxy for UK Government thinking:
t.co/P5v4b0Sx87
One idea floating around is that you create a UK-EU divergence management committee that can adjudicate on the extent to which trade access can be limited, should one side decide to diverge regulations...
So although the UK will have “taken back control” and could decide to diverge, there, in these cases, will remain intensely strong mutually agreed incentives not to diverge regulations, with clear loss of market access.
But this is not simple.

In other words, Germany sticking to their original position of no cherry picking and uk government realise they need to give the illusion of regulatory divergence but in reality need to keep regulation exactly as it is in many areas.

Seems to be 'How do you create an illusion for the Leavers that the EU will accept'...

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RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 09:47

Alexander Clarkson @ APHClarkson
^Throughout Grexit talks every few weeks there was a paper by a think tank that created great excitement among journalists and analysts hoping for some deus ex machina to avoid crisis.
They all proved irrelevant. The talks were an exercise in demonstrating power, not compromise^
Before getting all fussed about the latest think tank paper that seems to promise a magic solution to the UK's Brexit predicament think of whether that proposal enables the EU27 to demonstrate that they have the power and the UK does not.
Neoclassical Realism sucks. Get used to it.

DExEU's entire purpose and existence is because the government are fucking terrified of this.

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DGRossetti · 10/01/2018 09:49

Seems to be 'How do you create an illusion for the Leavers that the EU will accept'..

A royal wedding ? Blue passports ?

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 09:52

amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/10/trump-lawyer-michael-cohen-sues-buzzfeed-russia-dossier?__twitter_impression=true
Trump lawyer Michael Cohen sues BuzzFeed over Russia dossier

Buzzfeed laid off a lot of staff last year as they financially were not doing well. Realistic that this could be fatal to them.

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 10/01/2018 09:55

This seems helpful from Labour Hmm:

Cllr Tom Bewick‏
@Lab_Westbourne
There are now 13 million Labour voters (5 million more than under Blair); 4 million of them are pro Brexit and ex-UKIP. The party can afford to lose a few liberal snow flakes here and there if it delivers a socialist government, free of the neo-liberal #EU.

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 10:03

One day 'snowflake' will be as unpalatable a phrase as 'bitch'. I'm looking forward to that day. I think our councillor friend needs to be stuck in the corner with Uncle Racist and firmly ignored. For a start, his argument with regard to the numbers, makes very little sense.

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 10:09

The 'Neoclassical Realism' thing is interesting - and worrying.

I feel it's becoming clearer and clearer that 'the deal' for the UK has been the same since day 1, and there isn't going to be a 'big reveal'. It's rather a damaging deal. And it's the one the EU laid out very early on. I'm also finding the EU's intention to talk straight over the heads of the UK government, to business, very interesting - if alarming. I think that's where we will see 'the deal' outlined.

When I think about the implications of this, I feel very angry. What a stupid thing to do the the UK: send it in to a trade negotiation with a weak hand. It just brings home to me the level of non-education and misinformation there is in certain sections of the UK's media which would permit such a thing to happen.

woman11017 · 10/01/2018 10:10

pain there's quite a wee bit of noodlery going on on many sides atm wrt to labour's position in SM remain. The funny thing is, that the rallies, street stalls sticker campaigns, flag campaigns are ecumenical affairs.

ECHR might have less to do with the UK
Don't think this cabinet of socially responsible feminists and anti racists would support that one really.
We have full fat repeals of race and gender equality laws steaming down the tracks on fig leaf of ending 'red tape'.
We will have and imminent shut down of pesky social media for reasons of fighting the 'war on tourism' ( Bush junior)
And anyone else noticed lots of space on supermarket shelves and ads extolling the virtues of meat free diet?

And hope you're right there red you usually are: that the source of this plague is being isolated in cabinet so that when the symptoms do get a bit unpleasant we will be able to find a cure, god willing.

woman11017 · 10/01/2018 10:12

For a clue to what 'neo classical realism' meant, I think that the years following the 'Greek crisis' and failed 'Grexit' are probably a good indicator. Without the sun, land, tomatoes, self sufficiency and close family structures that's seen Greece through troubles before.

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 10:15

Why would I vote for anyone who a) takes voters for granted b) can't do maths.

A hell of a lot of swing voters merely go for whom they perceive to be the least worst option rather than voting for something.

This is why the polls remain close. Cos swing voters think Labour and the Tories are as bad as each other. This desperation to avoid the alternative is what is killing the LDs.

I do ask myself at what point do people see both Labour and the Tories so equally bad that they think 'fuck it' I'm screwed either way.

Lds were the bastion of the protest voter in 2010. Retrospective reflection is about. It was at the time of the GE but Corbyn spun it well and May just made herself look worse than worse. Not sure that Corbyn's bubble will necessarily last with all. A lot of polling suggests he was 'lent' votes rather than given. That suggests something expected in return...

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woman11017 · 10/01/2018 10:18

Pressure is building on Labour, red all part of the work in hand.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/01/2018 10:20

All this talk of creating an illusion is actually the best cause for hope there's been in a year. Where the Labour Party would stand on possibly exposing that illusion, and indeed their whole stance generally is still a mystery to me.

The idea floating around is that you create a UK-EU divergence management committee that can adjudicate on the extent to which trade access can be limited, should one side decide to diverge regulations...
So although the UK will have “taken back control” thereby creating the illusion of regulatory divergence but in reality need to keep regulation exactly as it is in many areas.

This Divergence Committee is actually is a brilliant idea. To apply it...
DH had a 'same old' row with FIL on Monday.The latter introduced the old chestnut of it being worth trashing our economy to have unilateral determination over bendy or straight bananas. Sigh. A divergence committee would be a visible manifestation, but importantly within these shores, of the way harmonisation works. It would convey the correct impression, but in a more overt way, that the (mostly food) regulatory alignment is a joint collaborative process.

This must be more acceptable to people like FIL. They will then see more clearly that the U.K. proposes, votes on and supports most food regs etc as being in our interests.

It would also become clearer that in fact the joint regulatory alignment is very limited. The divergence committee would not have input over matters such as defence, fiscal policy, tax, health, education, pensions, social care etc as these fall within the remit of Parliament alone. This is the existing position but it would be more obvious.

On a humorous side note apparently some-one said Hammond and DD's trip to Germany was a 'charm offensive'. A Dad on the school run commented that they'd be in with more of a chance if they'd sent Peppa pig. (With unpierced ears presumably! )

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 10:22

Re NHS and donations

www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-oxfordshire-42632450?__twitter_impression=true
Specialist cancer unit considering cuting chemo from six to four cycles.

Business opportunity here for top ups... and so it begins.

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artisancraftbeer · 10/01/2018 10:34

Before Christmas I went to an industry dinner at which Michael Portillo was speaking. Apart from the fact that he was absolutely charming (he went round every table to say good evening and have a few words before the speech); he said the following interesting things:

  1. The conservatives were utterly unable to land anything on Blair during the whole of his tenure - it was only when Brown took over that they had any ammunition at all;

  2. there is noone who could lead the conservative party at the moment because they're either stupid charlatans (my paraphrase) or brilliant but hated (MG was mentioned to a huge groan) - it is even worse than 1997.

  3. Lib Dems always do disproportionately brilliantly when they have a young media savvy leader who gets on HIGNFY see Cleggy, Kennedy etc and reminds people that they're there. They don't otherwise get the media coverage because they're sensible! Also he said Vince was great at the moment but not as fast as he was even a few years ago.

He did also say some slightly stupid things about Brexit, but those points were very interesting...

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 10:49

I still think Corbyn is a major impediment. The fact that he is a place-holder for the left of the party is the only thing that is keeping him as leader - and that's a real problem.

The whole re-shuffle response - calling it a 'PR exercise' was hardly killing, and deflecting attention onto LAbour's Brexit wibble position (the whole nonsense about not being in the SM) - was, frankly, traumatising to witness. That wasn't what you want to see from a 'government in waiting'.

This current government is genuinely appalling - the NHS alone should be destroying them - but I still have a cold clutch of fear that Labour may well lose the next GE. And I think Corbyn is going to be a factor in that. I think he is genuinely not able to compromise and be pragmatic enough to give people confidence in his ability as a leader. And that, sadly, has nothing to do with the left-wing politics of mainstream media portrayal.

thecatfromjapan · 10/01/2018 10:50

Artisan did Portillo have anything to say about LAbour?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 10/01/2018 10:51

Glad Gove got a groan!

Andrew Adonis
‏*@Andrew*_Adonis
GOVERNMENT STIFLING PARLIAMENT: HMG is trying to cut the key Lords debate on the 2nd Reading of the EU Withdrawal Bill to just 2 days, altho there will be c.140 speakers. The 1971 Lords debate on joining the EU was over 3 days with 79 speakers, so we shd have 4 days at least!

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 10:54

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-minister-likes-tweet-calling-11823201.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Tory Minister 'likes' a tweet calling Esther McVey's appointment 'an appalling decision'
Newly appointed housing minister Dominic Raab may find it hard to get on with his colleague after his account promoted the scathing tweet

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artisancraftbeer · 10/01/2018 11:00

the cat not particularly - just in a glancing way of "I can't believe how badly the Tory party are doing that people really think JC's labour would be an alternative when the last time the socialists were in ...."

Interestingly though, the room had a lot of very well paid people who would be expecting to be hit by a Corbyn government and there certainly appeared to be more support for him that I would have expected in that environment.

RedToothBrush · 10/01/2018 11:09

I do think that May has everything resting on the Repel Bill.

See things through that lens:

She HAS to try every trick in the book to get it through given that she shot herself in the foot with the double year parliamentary session which means she can't use the 1911 Parliamentary Act.

She's painted herself in a corner.

Triggering a50 means come 30 March 2019 without it, we have a crisis regardless of whether there is a deal or not.

She might try and stuff the Lords. But its apparent that could provoke a constitutional crisis.

If she does bow to Rebel amendments she's vulnerable to a hard right leadership challenge.

If she doesn't somehow compromise then many rebel are starting to see the consequences as worse than a Corbyn government. She risks the government collapsing if she doesn't compromise.

She can not risk embarrassing Tory rebellion in the Lords. Heseltine is gunning for the bill.

The Lords purpose is to hold the executive to account. Her agenda rests on removing as much accountability as possible.

As I say, EVERYTHING is about the Withdrawal Bill. It is more important than EU negotiations.

In those circumstances trying to restrict debate in the Lords makes perfect sense. As does putting in the most able people who understand this reality into the Cabinet and Justice ministries.

We will see more tricks in this area before we are done.

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