David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
Losing Lidington and Raab from MoJ will have a serious knock-on effect for EU Withdrawal Bill.
They were the two most able ministers dealing the devil of the legalistic detail.
Now new ministers will have to master the detail, from scratch, while Bill is mid-passage.
A mess.
The sensible move re Brexit would have been to have promoted Raab to Justice Secretary until Withdrawal Bill had been finally passed.
Bill already delayed and too complex. Getting yet more ministers up to legalistic speed will cause more problems against a strict timetable.
Robert Kaye @ rpkaye
I suspect Lidington will continue to do it from CabOff, it's not an MoJ lead anyway.
Noteworthy as this was taken away from Davis. Went to Lidington, and now responsibility of solicitor Gawke and the very able and Brexit savvy Rory Stewart.
It seems that there is almost two parallel Brexit implementing structures in government.
On the one hand you have the Cabinet Office and the MoJ who contain Ollie Robbins who seems to be head Brexit negotiator despite Davis officially having the title. He is now joined by Lidington, in a role which seems most closely aligned to the department than Green was. By not making him Deputy Pm (or whatever the bullshit title), May has effectively given the department as a whole more influence. Lidington is regarded as an arch remainer.
The MoJ appointments are also two realists. We know this about Stewart cos he talked about Brexit complexity before anyone else did. He says he will support Brexit and I think he's the type to be sincere about that. This is a man who previously worked in East Timor, post Kosovo Montenegro and post invasion Iraq. He does difficult and diplomatic. It does make a lot more sense to put him here in this context.
Gawke, I'm not sure we know much about his Brexit position. But a) he's regarded as the clean up king, who gets shoved from department to department to sort out the mess there. B) he's a solicitor and most of the rebels are law types. He'll speak their language, understand principles, and I would not be surprised if he didn't share many of their concerns.
Between Robbins, Lidington, Gawke and Stewart you have some of the most pragmatic, rational and able hands in government. They understand the principles and the devil in the detail. They are about as 'safe' as you are going to get.
On the other hand you have the Brexit department made up of the lazy, delusional, self serving, liars who are totally out of touch and are like a dog chasing its own tail. Davis once upon a time was regarded as able. Now he just looks like someone who can't be bothered to turn up at the office, is eight steps behind everyone else, does a lot of undermining of everyone and just seems utterly clueless. The irony to me is he also doesn't seem fully committed. Straight after the election he pitched staying in the customs union and single market. Then backed away sharpish when May stayed. There have been a few other times when I wondered if he had moments of Bregret too. He largely seems to just be confused.
Then theres Baker and Fernandes. Both clueless ideologs without an ounce of integrity or realism between them.
I have to ask, who really gas power here and are these two groups just competing, with the whole of the Brexit department effectively just being ministers for no deal and no real interest in the contrary. With the exception of the befuddled Davis, whose purpose perhaps is now to talk the language of Brexit to Brexiteers to keep them happy with ridiculous spin and give the illusion that Leave is winning whilst the able students elsewhere in government do the real legwork. The hope being that Leavers lack the capacity to understand or see through it. And of course adding another minister there is a great deflection tactic. Makes you look serious at the Department even if its effectively being sidelined.
Remember Raab is a leaver too. If this is the intent that that would explain why he was moved too.
If im right it suggests a seriousness about Brexit and a real intent to Brexit. But to do so softly and safely. More so than Leavers will be anywhere near happy about.
If No Deal wins through, then the careers of those in the MoJ and Cabinet Office less likely to be damaged. Ownership will fail on the Delusionals.
If Davis has come over to the Dark Side and is now effectively a 'remain or soft brexit double agent' then his role might not be very much different to what it is now! And would it explain the mysterious disappearing impact studies saga?
He has said he will stand down after this parliament. His legacy will be judged on getting a deal. Not getting no deal, which his junior ministers are in it for.
I don't know. Just some wild speculating whilst trying to work out the implications and thought process behind the reshuffle and the more curious and significant changes in staff.