Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

[RedToothBrush]

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

BigChoc

Example of lost UK business

I imagine that will fall into one or more of the following categories:
(1) Project Fear and Fake News
(2) We will do moar business within the self-reliant Brexitannia economy (or China/India/other supplicants)
(3) BullyingPunishmentSpite

The New Zealand example just isn't feasible. You can afford to have a much smaller economy if you have so many fewer people.

SwedishEdith's population density figures are interesting, especially if you bear in mind that vast areas of the UK (Scotland, Wales, much of NI especially) have very low population densities. The UK has too many people to be able to afford a drop in income.

And for those who say "well that's because of all the EU immigrants" it's not that. Taking a probable foreign-born population of about 10 million, that's still only about 15% of the population. Many of those are young workers, doing unpopular and badly paid jobs. Getting rid of them won't improve matters.

There are some interesting figures here showing that the largest proportion of foreign born people in the UK are from India. Other counties in the top ten include Pakistan, NIgeria, Bangladesh, Jamaica (though Poland and Ireland do appear in the top 5).

So stopping EU immigrants will make little difference to the population that has to be supported by the new, leaner, economy.

Mr Gove suggested going to WTO rules was as likely as "a tsunami hitting the South West of England"

Everyone on the southwest coast quickly gets up to check out the window for massive waves....

E27 Immigrants are a net benefit to the Exchequer, native Brits a net loss !

https://www.ft.com/content/c49043a8-6447-11e4-b219-00144feabdc0?mhq5j=e1

E27 immigrants to the UK paid much more in taxes than they received in benefits over the past decade, making a net fiscal contribution of £20bn, say researchers.

Those from the original 15 EU members brought a net gain of £15bn over the same period.

By comparison, the UK-born population was a net cost.

1607 there was a tsunami up the Bristol channel (probably).

www.burnham-on-sea.com/1607-flood.shtml

E27 govts voting wrt A50 & Brexit

Jean-Claude Piris, former head of the EU Council Legal Service, said;
"Article 50 is about the divorce, not the future"
< keep repeating until the gov5 understands >

He confirmed that :

1. the WA (Withdrawal Agreement) - "divorce terms" e.g. the 3 prerequisites of expats, NI border, exit bill - needs only

• QMV (Qualified Majority Vote) of E27 govt heads (the UK as the leaving country has NO vote)
• plus simple majority of European Parliament

2. the future agreement - i.e. trade etc - would need UNANIMOUS ratification by all 38 national & regional parliaments Any E27 country or regional assembly could veto it, e.g. Walloon !

BUT

3. if the WA now envisaged goes beyond just divorce matters, it becomes a "mixed agreement," which might then be subject to a long ratification process requiring the same unanimous approval from all the parliaments as a trade agreement.

https://esharp.eu/podcasts/brexit-article-50-and-beyond#.WjqAz9XMk2k

One of the Dublin universities has a graduate output of about 25 children's nurses each year. Last year, about 15 of them applied to Great Ormond Street, and every one who applied was offered a job.

This year of the 120 people graduating as general nurses, about 75% are planning on heading to the UK for a couple of years at least. Many of them have already been offered multiple jobs starting in January 2019, they have been offered expenses, support, even post-grad fees (and they haven't even graduated yet).

I hope the UK sort themselves out pretty soon, because those nurses won't go if they are no longer eligible to work, to study, to have funded further education etc. They are also in great demand in Australia and many other countries

Whatever about anything else, the NHS would be fucked without Irish nurses. And it's all very well to say "we had the free travel area before the EU, it will continue unchanged" - it can't, if everything else is fucked up.

West Country tsunamis are not unknown:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Channel_floods,_1607

Bigchoc, painintheear's post of David Allen Green's tweet is very relevant to your post:

"UK sees Brexit as simple and as an exercise in spin.

EU27 sees Brexit as complex and as an exercise in process.

The EU are following a defined process. The UK are faffing around, changing demands and shouting about unfairness.

The UK spokespeople don't seem to realise that since the UK is leaving, it's up to the countries who are still there to decide what they want. If the UK wanted an agreed exit, they should have agreed that exit before they announced they were leaving. Or, even better, before they held the referendum in the first place.

Oops, X-post with Gaspode.

If the UK wanted an agreed exit, they should have agreed that exit before they announced they were leaving. Or, even better, before they held the referendum in the first place.

^^ This.

Apparently Damien Green has resigned?

Natural Consequences of Acting Without Thinking ?

The UK’s refusal to apply to extend the A50 period, but to go for an “implementation” , i.e. transition period, has obvious disadvantages:

Neither the Uk nor the EU can force non-EU countries to still apply EU FTAs or other trade agreements during this transition.
That’s about 50 FTAs plus 900 trade-related agreements with no -EU countries & trade blocs

Note for our visitor: that is international law, NOT spite

If we're lucky, the EU will support us when we ask all these other countries to carry on as before.
Some countries will refuse anyway

@jimwaterson
Damian Green has been sacked. It wasn't the allegations of inappropriate behaviour or the alleged porn on his computer that cost him the job – it was him publicly denying that he knew of the alleged porn on his computer. t.co/I9pDX0oZYA

I keep trying to tell people that all the trade agreements that the UK has with non-EU countries are part of EU deals, and won't be valid after Brexit.

Why does no-one understand that?

I keep seeing people say "we'll be fine because x% of our trade is with y, and n% is with m, that won't be affected by Brexit, we'll just import/export more with z country".

Damian Green has been sacked

Excellent. David David will be resigning shortly then.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/david-davis-threatens-to-quit-if-damian-green-sacked-unfairly

You can live in hope....

People also don''t seem to understand that the so-called 'divorce bill' is money we already owe, not a downpayment for a future trade deal.

Wait! Didn't David Davis say he would resign if Damien Green was sacked? Or was that just a wonderful dream I had?

Ah, cross posted with everyone

People also don''t seem to understand that the so-called 'divorce bill' is money we already owe, not a downpayment for a future trade deal

Sadly I think "people" includes our esteemed government.

I think you're right, Badgers? Waiting hopefully...

Sadly I suspect his resignation promise might turn out to be as real as his excruciatingly detailed impact assessments.

:)

Yes, ItsAllGoingToBeFine.

May doesn't seem to get it at all. Like the Irish Border Issue; it all seems to be coming as a bit of surprise [baffled]

DD said unfairly sacked, didn't he? He'll probably now decide that it's fair - rats and sinking ships comes to mind