Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

[RedToothBrush]

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

My sister lives in NZ now (I've other relatives there too).
She says it's the best move she's ever made - she loves it there & so do my nieces, nephews & bil (and they've lived many places).

Funny how quality of life & measurement of a 'desirable place to live' doesn't mean the same thing for everyone isn't it.

I don't think it bothers her one bit that its economy is 53rd in the world tbh.

Midnight I think the question is more why if it works for the lowly 53rd largest economy in the World it wouldn't be even more successful for the 5th / 6th?

You see? You see? What did I say upthread?

From Germany, I can see how visas would affect those wanting to work in the EU, if Brexit stops FOM:

As an EU citizen, I was treated exactly as a German would be, in considering my job application
My colleagues from India and S Korea needed visas for themselves, spouses and DC
English is an optional work language, so no barrier there either - none of us spoke any German on arrival.

Where it makes a difference

The criteria for them - which our HR might have to do for me after Brexit - is
"no EU citizen is available & qualified to do this job"

That is fine in our field of science, where there is a shortage of qualified people, but won't help those in some other areas, or new grads, or semi-skilled / unskilled.
No more "Auf Widersehen, Pet" ?

There is great competition for our few student internships, because of decent pay, good training, prestigious CV
So, ONLY EU ( and possiblely EFTA / EEA) citizens are considered for our internships

One Indian colleague found out the difference requiring visas made:
Last summer, while returning from hols in Japan, they lost his wife's German visa in Tokyo airport.
they were unable to enter Germany for 3 weeks, because they had to obtain all the documents - originals in their German house - to obtain a new visa.
I would have just needed my passport to enter (getting an emergency replacement for a return journey is just a day or so from UK embassy)
They both had to use weeks of unpaid leave at their jobs, as well as all the other costs of an extra 3 weeks in Japan.

Me personally:
Late 1980s, with massive UK unemployment, it made a big difference to my career, which was going sideways, that I could spend a few years in Germany changing field slightly and gaining good experience and references.
It kickstarted my UK employability at a much better level.

(So, the circle turned and I am back for the final few years of my career)

Why choose New Zealand, though, and not - say - Germany?

I can see a lot of merit in wanting to be more like a Germany. NZ not so much. For a start, where would we put all the sheep? I thought the country was "full".

The rich poor divide in NZ is quite massive and is growing. So sure, it could work. If the aim is to make the rich richer and the poor worse off. Which lets face it, is the plan of many an ardent brexiteer.

Ok let's be open minded we are kissing the City and our main source of financial services income au revoir.

Can we seriously emulate NZ? Their main Income comes from agriculture, then forestry is New Zealand's next important industry. Tourism is a major part of the NZ economy too.

We've been here before, attempting to invent our own version of a European trading bloc which we could rule:

In 1960, the UK set up EFTA, as their answer to the then EEC of 6 countries

However, by 1961 Macmillan and his then sidekick Heath were trying to join the EEC.
Maybe because even trading with that much smaller market was better than ruling the EFTA minnows

The Uk hasn't the power to rule the EU Premier League, but hates the idea of joining the minor league EFTA- where it would only have one vote, not a super-vote
The anger of the Tory right at the EU is that they won't always do as the UK tells them.
Tories have no problem with the UK, in which England dominates the other 3 nations so much, but they hate being No. 3 among 28 countries.

The anger at Germany in particular, is mostly down to bitter envy - they are the no. 1 power in the EU and the UK can't stand being no. 3

I meant be open minded , and seriously explore the Canada minus alternatives.

I'm thinking agriculture and forestry isn't an option. Apart from trying to be a Singapore, what else can we try? Creative industries? Tourism may be ok due to fall in sterling, but the whole xenophobia thing does deter tourists a tad.

I think it's also the things you lose.

It's clear to me that, genuinely, a lot of people would be happy if the UK became more like NZ. They'll love the pace of life. They won't care about Higher Education. They won't care about the limited range of employment opportunities. Their lives will be small and happy.

And, to be honest, lots of people live like that now. They don't know, or care, about the difference between being treated in a world-ranking hospital, plugged into cutting-edge research, or learning at a world-ranking university, as opposed to the hospitals and universities of a busted UK. They're not big on culture, so who cares about what is available outside their own circle of interest?

They're very happy. And they see nothing wrong with imposing that vision of bliss on everyone else.

Their children, and grandchildren, on the other hand, may think of the lost education and world-opening opportunities and range of employment - and just the experience of living in a world-ranking country - that their parents/grandparents destroyed on their behalf ... and may dream of setting fire to their beds while they slumber in their complacent sleep.

I think visas - if they enter the frame - will be a massive shock for some people. Not tourists (although if I were Spain, I'd happily see if I could charge €100 per visa to cover the costs of policing the Costas). But people wanting to work.

BCF has highlighted the first hurdle. Why should an EU country issue a visa to work to a UK citizen, if there is an EU citizen to do the job ?Brexiteers remember: currently this isn't a question they need to ask. Nor answer).

Even if the putative EU-bound UK employee does get a visa to work, it's entirely possible it will come with a host of restrictions (which breaking could lead to deportation). Top of the list is to restrict the holder to working in one role in one company. Want promotion (assuming there's no suitable EU candidate) ? That'll be another visa. Move companies ? Another visa. And I'd be surprised if visas are free. €30-100 a pop isn't unreasonable.

I won't even start to imagine what the situation would be if a work visa-holder needs to travel through several EU countries with their work ....

Of course, we might be able to avoid any of this. We could just accept the Freedom of Movement principles, and carry on as now. But then there's that growing chorus .... what was the point of Brexit ?

This is another area where the lack of clarity is biting hard. Because no one knows how FOM will - or won't - pan out, UK citizens are already losing out on roles that might require EU travel.

The anger of the Tory right at the EU is that they won't always do as the UK tells them.

My German friends say the problem is the Brits just storm in with any EU politics and attempt to throw their ( diminishing) weight around rather than participating in slow, proper diplomacy.

... and the other point is the vast majority of EU decisions in the EU parliament have gone the way we voted anyway. So in fact we did get our way mostly!

Thanks to anyone who signed the petition to keep cancer treatment in Cornwall. They are reconsidering their decision to have people travel to Devon so fingers crossed they will change their minds.

I'm very sad about the whole Canada minus thing.

I interpret Barnier's recent comments as being an example of him aiming to speak across the filters of the optimistic-to-the-point-of-mendacity Head Brexiteers (David Davis, for example) and the media.

It was an absolute undercutting of David Davis' ridiculous attempts to spin this situation as really, really good, really and a spelling out of what it actually means.

All the way through the Referendum, I harped on about the City. Some Brexiteers whipped people up into an anti-Bank frenzy, others reassured us that we'd never lose the City. And post-Referendum, I remember being reassured that of course the Conservatives would protect the City.

And here we are.

I think we knew it was coming to this when Goldmann Sachs opened their European HQs. It was clear they'd stopped listening to the fatuous platitudes from our government.

Those European HQs that City firms are going to have to establish now mean a significant - a really significant - loss of revenue.

What the fuck is going to happen to the NHS and the state sector?

Can't help but be amused by brexiteers on another forum frothing that the transition period will now not last two years. They are cross that the EU are demanding we stay after 2019 and can't believe the EU are making us stay in until the end of 2020! Apparently the EU are out of order and we should leave right now and let them come begging to us for a trade deal.

What the fuck is going to happen to the NHS and the state sector?

I think a more pertinent question would be how much of a fuck would Redwood, Gove, Johnson and IDS give about [the NHS and state sector] ?

(Hyperbole alert) I think the only areas where I could say hand on heart that I have seen the UK actually give a toss about it's citizens is road safety, and smoking. Probably because both areas were ripe for a container-lorry load of rules, regulations, and powers. Beyond that ... well, Grenfell springs to mind. And the IRAs happy slaughter of the innocents in the 1970s. One death is a tragedy. A million is a statistic.

And we weren't even honest about smoking, as the cost had to be hidden.

Can we seriously emulate NZ? Their main Income comes from agriculture

I know it probably looks like I am being sarky about the sheep but (economist hat on) it so happens that NZ's two largest exports are milk products and sheep & goat meat. Eyeballing the OECD data it looks as if those two product groups are not far off a quarter of all exports.

What would that look like in the UK? NZ has a population of roughly 5 million people, 10 million cows and 30 million sheep (latest data. They have killed a lot of sheep in the last 10 years). Translate that to the UK context and you're going to need to find room for 420 million sheep and 140 million cows.

It's a completely fucking stupid model for a major economy that has a high population density.

420 million sheep

Interesting number

Maybe there are other areas of agriculture we could look to ? After all, crop cultivation has a long history ....

... and even if we could produce that many sheep. Who would we sell them to? And what regs would we need to comply with in order to sell them?

However we are seriously debating potential solutions raised by those who wished to relinquish membership. I think that's a good thing.

Can't help but be amused by brexiteers on another forum frothing that the transition period will now not last two years.

One of the joys of being alive now, is to watch the foaming and frothing as the different types of Brexiteer start to realise that trying to shove a square peg into a round hold involves cutting something off somewhere.

... and even if we could produce that many sheep. Who would we sell them to?

Americans generally don't "do" lamb. Maybe start there ?

Some stats here www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Geography/Area/Land/Per-capita

37 Norway 66.19 sq km per 1,000 people 2008
38 Somalia 65.63 sq km per 1,000 people 2008
39 New Zealand 64.22 sq km per 1,000 people 2008

European Union average 13.47 sq km per 1,000 people 2008

183 Germany 4.24 sq km per 1,000 people 2008
184 United Kingdom 3.96 sq km per 1,000 people 2008