Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

[RedToothBrush]

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

Though I suppose for the current generation of Irish heading over, it's nice that they don't have to face the "No blacks, no dogs, no Irish" signs any more.

The same landlords would probably now like to have signs reading "No blacks, no dogs, no Poles"

BigChoc, I think either way, there will be bitterness and resentment.

A partial Brexit will leave the leavers, as you say, unhappy and resentful and blaming the EU for everything. As the economy plummets they will say that it's because it's not a proper Brexit. There may be riots in the streets.

A full Brexit will leave the leavers unhappy because there will be massive consequences to that. The EU aren't going to make any allowances, they will stop being "nice", the UK will have to pay a much higher direct cost, the price of European goods and services will go through the roof. The leavers will blame this on the EU too.

Not to mention that a full Brexit with either mean an Irish border, or separate treatment for NI, either of which will mean definite rioting in the streets.

Everyone is fucked either way.

Anything less than full Unicorns and Sunlit Uplands will be considered Punishment/Bullying, and even Santa needs to get with the programme!

Any Brexit will be worse for the Uk than what it currently has as an EU member

Not sure if the "LH" shout out was @me, but FTAOD ^^^this is what I believe.

I like that TheElementsSong

I think the 2-year transition is to give the E27 time to adapt to Brexit, even a WTO one
e.g. completing E27 supply chains, also continuing to boost ferry, power and communication links between RoI and the EU mainland

The E27 is well under way with this process already
The Uk has not even started - and would need several years anyway, because Brexit affects all of its trade with the EU & the 900 trade-related arrangements with the rest of the world

Yes, I thought it was your pov, LH/Lurking

What now theelements

Not believe in Santa!

I think you are off the nice list for just posting that

Its not to late...come back to the Christmas side!!

This is the chart Barnier presented to the E27 leaders, showing that UK red lines mean either "Canada" or WTO

• that's Canada DRY, not +++

From Santa Barnier to Theresa:

The problem with Canada (not +) and with WTO is that they both leave us with a hard border in NI, which is a red line as well I thought. In reality there are no options that do not cross our supposed red lines.

Barnier's chart shows only UK red lines:

The E27 can't force the UK to honour the GFA, except by refusing anything more than Canada
(although maybe the Irish-American lobby can ?)

I found myself idly wondering what would happen if the UK held a referendum on income tax being abolished, and it won by just over 50% ?

But with the current agreement with the EU re NI, it already means regulatory alignment with the EU for the whole of the U.K...
And they be accepted the ECJ for a few years.

So why not just getting in with it and get a nearly Swiss agreement instead??

Tbh they could quite easily say that they have now a new agreement with the EU re FoM which will be basically what we have now BUT with the U.K. actually implementing the regulation ( so you have to work/self sufficient/studying etc etc) so it looks acceptable to the masses? And to NI.

I've often thought about a referendum repealing the laws of gravity - unfair laws from experts !
or that every UK-born citizen must live to 200

BCF isn’t the UK in a way forced to carry on following the GFA because it’s an international treaty?
And because the EU is another of its signatories, the EU is just as responsible to sustain the GFA as the U.K. (and I assume RoI) is??

iirc, Norway and Switzerland both still have checks on goods but not people

Checks not more than an hour or so, but would still hinder anger border communities

The UK would need to retain membership of both SM & CU avoid this

Hermione The GFA is an international treaty registered at the UN
However, any party can end a treaty, if it pays any termination penalties written in - iirc, the GFA has no such penalties

Reading what the 3 Dunces have said, they plan to stick to the letter of the treaty, which has only about 5 areas clearly specified, instead of the 142 areas the EU / RoI study found
Then claim it is the RoI / E27 putting up a border - but WTO rules would require both sides to put up a border around a trade bloc, unless the UK becomes Singapore-on-Thames

Of course, the Provos may then decide to end their GFA commitment to no military action

• I wonder if they have started their Brexit planning ?

They learned how effective a few bombs in the London financial centre are, as a negotiating tool

• Very quick, more effective than 1000s of dead civilians and soldiers

I've often thought about a referendum repealing the laws of gravity

The problem with using that analogy with Brexit is that it introduces the idea that Brexit is somehow impossible. Which it isn't if done properly.

Actually, I'm quite struck with my own suggestion about a referendum on Income tax and will claim it as my own.

It's an entirely plausible suggestion that were such a referendum were to be held:

(The UK should cease raising money by taxing earned income, YES or NO)

then it might have resulted in a YES.

You can see the scene now, as people go wild that "the will of the people" has triumphed. We might even have a feature film about it: "Triumph of the Will of the People"

The only fly in the ointment being the follow-up discussions on how to abolish income tax, and (more cogently) what to replace it with.

The obvious rejoinder to such whimsy is to point out that no government would ever be as stupid as to have a referendum on a contentious subject with no planning for the outcome. Unfortunately for those wishing to keep things whimsy-free, that latter is a busted flush.

They learned how effective a few bombs in the London financial centre are, as a negotiating tool - Very quick, more effective than 1000s of dead civilians and soldiers

They had to be taught. Their initial strategy was predicated upon a refusal to believe that the British government would allow innocent civilians to die in a political conflict. They've learned now.

David Allen Green
David Allen Green
@davidallengreen

The twin delusions of Brexit

The delusion of Leavers that Brexit is going to be easy, and the delusion of Remainers that all the difficulties, adverse consequences and unforced errors will be enough to stop it.

Resjudicatamyfoot
@Resjudicatamyft
Know of few Remainers so deluded.

But this tweet actually saying Brexit is unstoppable.

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
Replying to @Resjudicatamyft
No, it does not say that. Why say that it does? Disappointing to be misrepresented.

It says [x] is not enough to stop Brexit. And [x] is not. Something else might, though.

Since the 1970s has come up, I wonder what the sentiment; the will of the people if you like, on the UK mainland was about the status of Northern Ireland ?

I know my DF never understood why we couldn't just "give it back" ... when my DM pointed out that the majority in NI wanted to be British, my DF asked if the rest of the British agreed .... which seems an interesting - if inflammatory - question.

Barnier's chart shows only UK red lines:

I thought this was a UK red line, in that the DUP demanded a soft border and they run the Government now don't they?

I could be wrong though, in which case Canada it is....

The opinions I have heard about NI, from otherwise moderate, thoughtful people, is 'why don't they leave them to it?' What that means in practice is not fully clarified, but they don't see the N Irish as British.