Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

JRM also has Farage's backing to be Tory leader. You know, as his view matters on it of course.

Actually, I have conflicted mixed views on the prospect of JRM becoming Conservative Party leader.

It might help kill off the Tory party for at least a generation.

Having said that, who knows what the UK media and electorate would do, so I can't assume

Do you think this bizarre defense of Damian Green is really a cry for help from Davis.? He just really, really wants an excuse to quit.

Yes and No.

Don't under estimate the power of the porn.

Promoting access to porn is popular. The money in porn has driven tech over the last fourth years. Videos and the internet owe a lot to it.

Davis knows this so it's a win win I suspect.

How long have I said that Brexit is all about Ireland and it's where it's biggest problem lies?

As for Bannon and Trump. They are seeing an opportunity to exploit in Brexit. Do not be complacent and suggest that the Tories are dead for a generation after Brexit.

What happens if it's a disaster and Labour get in and they make it all far worse? The seeds sown now are important. Trump started his presidential run a good number of years out.

When the hopeless see no other option and have run out of people to blame for blindly following ideology they will be ripe for finding it elsewhere no matter how crazy or outrageous the promises are.

The young support Labour now. But a lot of it is built on nothing much at all plus a dissatisfiation in life.

Always remember that the Nazis won on the promise of bread and jobs. Yes Godwin should be invoked where Godwin applies and Trump and Bannon are fascists.

Always remember that the Nazis won on the promise of bread and jobs.
So add in pornography. Skint daughters in those films. DG has two. Doubt they are skint.

But you're right red pornography is popular.
Like racism.

It's why we used to have laws on both.

@jonahfreedman
Repeated warnings from my 98-year-old grandma, a Nazi Germany survivor, chill me. She says it all started this way, with one weird unsettling development after another, until they were past the point of no return.

And sadly you could well be right about the tories.

Once fascism is in, it is the country.

"Other ways to bind Parliaments"
Join the EU apparently.

Political structures never last forever. Just thinking here of countries which have split up since I have been alive - Pakistan splitting from East and West to give Bangladesh, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, the USSR. Going further back, where are Prussia, the Holy Roman Empire, the Kingdom of Sicily and Naples now?Just listing a few that I thought of, off the top of my head. What does seem apparent is that the divorce is rarely painless.

Natural resources like our oil, yes, can be squandered and nothing Parliament can do will bring them back.

Other ways to bind Parliament - sign a trade agreement containing investor state protection clauses. Pretty standard and hard to avoid when you have no bargaining power.

Eg the state of Egypt being sued for damages by Veolia waste management corporation for raising its national minimum wage (making the cost of delivery more expensive than originally anticipated).

Eg the state of Egypt being sued for damages by Veolia waste management corporation

I suspect this depends on how powerful the country concerned is. I doubt if Veolia would get away with this with China, or even the USA.

pretty It is by no means certain that Labour would win the next GE:
Corbyn is toxic to a significant section of voters in the centre and on the Labour right

Even if he does win, there will be a massive propaganda campaign afterwards to blame Labour for all the economic damage and hardship from Brexit.
Some effects may take a few years to appear,
e.g. car manufacturers might stay until the end of their product cycles (say 4-5 years) to utilise their expensive current tooling as long as poss, but then pull out to invest abroad in the tooling the new models.

==> If you want the demise of the Tory party, then the recent GE was excellent for Labour to lose, as would the next one.
Then under an energetic young leader, Labour could pick up the pieces of a much poorer country, which might be open to radically reversing the changes since 1979

The EU refused TTIP, but the UK Tory govt was pushing for it

If "Britannia Unchained" signs up to TTIP on steroids, then a later UK govt can indeed be taken to court by US companies
for actions in their manifesto, or for advice from any official bodies, such as public health services.
e.g. any warnings about cigarettes, or hormone-ridden beef

BigChoc - I agree it is by no means certain - let alone likely - that Labour would win the next election.

My musing was specifically if JRM were to lead the Tories, that might make them unelectable, as he is so far removed from "the common people" and seems designed to put the ordinary person's back up.

by no means certain that Labour would win the next GE
Kinnock but worse: he didn't throw away thousands of feminist voters; very damaging conflict going on about interpretations of the Gender Recognition Act in the Labour party.

@britainelects
Labour's lead now down to 0.3pts in our poll tracker:

Lab: 40.6%
Con: 40.3%
LDem: 7.3%
UKIP: 4.5%
Grn: 2.6%

Caroline Cadwallder:
"Bannon in UK this week, meets with Farage. 2 days later, Flynn pleads. I don’t know if it’s relevant. But it’s definitely factual: all three connected to Robert Mercer. And firm under investigation for role in Brexit: Cambridge Analytica"

Farage and Mogg on BBC/Pravda politics tomorrow.

Mogg'll be toxic in Scotland and NI at least, prettybird.

In forelock tugging brexitania he's the heir apparent.

The other thing that chills me are the parallels of what I see being said about Muslims on comments pages with what was said about the Jews. I won't say the worst things but the references to vermin, hoardes and swarms. Also the idea that there is a plan by Muslims to emigrate to non Muslim countries, have lots of children until they out number the indigenous population and then install a Muslim government and Sharia law. All of which is allegedly imminent. This reminds me of the idea in the thirties that there was a Jewish plot to control the world. It's terrifying.

They say they want their country back, but I want my country back. The one where it wasn't acceptable to be racist.

Yy, Hollie

I genuinely couldn't predict what would happen in a JRM vs Corbyn election... One would hope that the Lib Dems would split the vote and emerge as a coalition partner with clout, but a) they seem to have decided to hibernate at the moment; and b) they have been so scarred by coalition government that they might not have the appetite for it.

It's not a good place to be in. I loathe and would never vote Tory but am very dubious of the labour party atm. I want to vote lib dem but my seat is Tory/labour marginal. I probably will vote lib dem as if we had another election before brexit (if the dup drop out and the government collapses) I would hope that a decent percentage of the vote for them would act as pressure for a soft brexit/2nd ref. The same way as UKIP secured a ref with only one MP.

The more you consider our system the less democratic it seems. We really need an overhaul, including a move to proportional representation.

So much UK news atm that I missed this yesterday from the US:

Yesterday, former US national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with the Russian ambassador

Flynn admitted he followed directions from an unnamed member of President Donald Trump's transition team
and said he would now cooperate with the probe into Russian meddling in the US presidential election.

I personally think the US have already passed the point of no return and did so some time ago.

Civil unrest is the only likely outcome at some point. The only question is the direction it takes to get there.

I've been expecting it to happen when US demographics change sufficiently so that whites are a minority, iirc about 2030

That'll really feed into the already paranoid victim status that the fascist right feel

Also explains the ruthlessness of the GOP in suppressing votes, in gerrymandering, even supporting the fascist Trump ...
all this is to try to give permanent power to corporations over citizens,
before their white bedrock becomes too small for the GOP to ever get in again - if there are vaguely free & fair elections

That's another issue: Robert Mercer and Cambridge Analytica used Brexit and Trump as their first tests of a system they hope will maintain the power of the oligarchs by ensuring rightwing govt as long as possible

Why do you think Wade v Roe is particularly important to them now?

Why do you think Wade v Roe is particularly important to them now
www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jul/29/infertility-crisis-sperm-counts-halved
?

Blessed be the fruit.

Kinder Kuche Kirche

This seems important.

Tim Shipman‏
@ShippersUnbound

BREAKING: Alan Milburn and entire social mobility commission resign saying May has “zero” chance of achieving her goal of a country fair for everyone

Survation (one of the reliable pollsters).

NEW political poll for MOS:
State of the parties (chg vs 4-5th Oct)

LAB 45% (+1) CON 37% (-1) LD 6% (-1) UKIP 4% (NC) SNP 3% (NC) GRE 1% (NC) AP 3% (NC)

At 8 pts, this is our largest Labour lead since Oct 2013 and is LAB +15 CON -10 since May.
Details: wp.me/p1cU9i-2Wb

This seems important I hope so swedish Gillian Shephard was chair?
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/02/theresa-may-crisis-mass-walkout-social-policy-alan-milburn

@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 37% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-)

Labour are shite right now. It's degrees of shite.

cross post there swedish