Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

Rhiannon I know there are people who defend SF's non-attendance as a point of principle but it is monstrous that the only representation that the people of NI have at the moment, regardless of where their allegiances lie is pretty much the DUP ten. It seems an impossible principle to maintain given current events (particularly wrt the GFA/border).

I think some assessments exist. I don't believe the civil service haven't studied these things. Dd saying he doesn't like those sorts of reports is telling. It makes me assume that he doesn't like their content. However I also suspect there aren't 58 of them. I doubt there was the need for them. One of two major industries taking massive hits could be enough to damage us significantly. Hence the need for recruiting believers.

Tinfoil hat ON (pt 2)

of course, in a way, does it matter if once launched, there is no continued force applied to the trollbots ?

In a way if the initial intention was to cause instability - rather than a move towards any particular destination - then the effect of applying a massive initial push (e.g rise of UKIP, build up to referendum, referendum) and then withdrawing it leading to the inconclusive election, and subsequent complete breakdown of UK parliamentary government (which used to be the UKs proud boast to the world) is probably the almost perfect outcome

If this is fair reading of the events of the past few years, then it carries within it a lovely little Easter Egg for we hard pressed remainers:

The Brexiteers have been played - and used - like the cheap fiddles they are. They were the stalking horse that has been used to weaken and destabilise the UK. And now they have served their purpose, they can be dropped. After all, as the DUP are showing, once you've poked a hornets nest, you can abandon the stick and just let things happen.

I'd hazard a guess, that the Matroska minds of the deep Russian psyche ultimately don't care if the UK is in or out of the EU, as long as it is too weak to form an alliance with any of Russias other (perceived) enemies. With the beauty that it's so fanciful, it would have failed a Dan Brown audience.

Tinfoil hat OFF

Labour and their candidates proclivity to mislead over education is a personal bugbear of mine but for the love of fuck that is not in the same league as the shit the Tories are pulling. This is their equivalent of but her emails.

I believe there are some assessments too but their contents are too shocking and damning to disclose.

I would also like to see much more balance in the representation from NI, but looking longer term I can't think of anything more likely to persuade people in NI over the next 20 years that a United Ireland is a good idea than a hard Brexit. So quite what the long term political advantage of breaking the long tradition of non attendance in the chamber would be for SF I am not sure.

If you had set out to remove the UK from the world stage as a diplomatic, political and military power then it would be impossible to argue that December 2017 was quite a good result.

I note that the BBC Have Your Say comments (which are normally the preserve of Kippers and assorted Daily Fail readers) today are dominated by incredulity at DD's incompetence.

All the highest rated posts express outrage at his antics

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42249854

Is it possible that the tide may be turning?

lurking hand me some aluminium because I think you're right.

It's the Gerasimov doctrine in action, I reckon (although Russia deny that such a thing exists).

www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/gerasimov-doctrine-russia-foreign-policy-215538

I note that the BBC Have Your Say comments (which are normally the preserve of Kippers and assorted Daily Fail readers)

Or, just to add to the confusion, the bots are off today.

If you were a foaming rabid Brexiteer, who has been bouyed up by the seeming "will of the people" behind you, and all of a sudden you're hit with a wall - a wave - of counter opinion you hadn't realised existed, then you'd be confused.

And even more likely to make a(nother) bad decision.

There's no way SF will do anything but maintain their policy of abstentionism at Westminster; it's the foundation of their party. And it runs much deeper than not wanting to swear fealty to the Queen.
Anyone interested should read about the first Dáil (the "Irish parliament") that SF established in Dublin after winning most Irish seats in the (British) general election of 1918. The mandate that SF's abstentionsim received then is utterly fundamental to Irish republicanism. (And it sounds a long time ago, but it is highly significant because, barring a few European Parliament elections, that is the last time that the whole island of Ireland voted in a single election on the same day.)

(although Russia deny that such a thing exists)

They would say that and then they would leak a number of reports strongly implying it definitely does exist, just for the lolz.

PainInTheEar

Hadn't read that. Thanks.

If we take it that nuclear war is undesirable, then someone has to find other ways to take on the enemy. Using their strength (since it's worthy of debate that one of the things that did for Communism was the technological advances the West were making 1950-1990) against them has a certain pleasing irony. With the added advantage that all the tools used were built in the US of A.

Maybe a world wide web wasn't such a good idea in hindsight.

Who was it who said "one step backwards to take two forwards" about soviet communism ?

Are we being regressed to feudalism to be able to leap to communism ? Or is it Marxism ? (It's at times like this I wish I had paid attention in history).

Feudalism I think, though don't quote me.

I wonder how much this will be heeded:

British elections at risk from perfect storm of threats, says watchdog

Electoral Commission chair, who is probing possible Russian meddling in 2016 Brexit vote, urges urgent reform to thwart cheats

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/05/british-elections-at-risk-from-perfect-storm-of-threats-says-watchdog?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Even here on MN, you can detect a sea change. Threads about Brexit popping up (unusual in itself) and the headbanger chorus doesn't appear to have arrived.

I'll bet there are some very confused Brexiteers at the moment.

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*
Understand Brexit Committee reconvening soon to debate its view on whether Davis fulfilled terms of binding resolution on impact studies or whether it is contempt

Sylvia is a Unionist. She is not an reckless looper like the DUPer's. She was on one of the Brexit committees and wasn't giving them an easy time. Asking quite good questions.

Seema Malhotra has been very, very good. Methodical. It is funny to see the way DD gets ruffled by Joanna Cherry. He is so contemptuous that she demands that Scotland be treated with respect. Getting tetchy with her doesn't shut her down the way he wants to.

OH and myself talking about the gov't last night. Amazed at the way it is now full of liars. Known liars. Who don't bother to hide their lies. No bar to promotion. And they are getting away with it.

I'm always astounded that Liam Fox is back. Don't think that'll ever stop being galling.

Yeah, Malhotra and Cherry are great. Admired Malhotra's grace and intelligence today.

My biggest issue with Liam Fox is that he has no idea what he is doing. A company I know, has, with lots of others, tried to have meetings explaining how busines works and what multi-nationals need to function, in addition to having a Murdoch rep sitting quietly in the corner during the meetings he just doesn't have a clue. I cannot imagine how he can create a functioning trade deal.

"Important bit of PMQs: PM says Irish border will be dealt with by the second phase EU-UK discussion - can only mean sufficient regulatory alignment across UK with EU for there to be no border"

They are still saying the Irish border will be dealt with in the second phase. But they can't get onto the second phase until there is some sort of plan (just an outline, but in writing) for the border. They need hearing aids for Christmas.

I think they may have thought they could use Ireland for a wedge to the other borders. Special case NI, then apply the same to Calais, without the obligations. They really thought they could barge around dictating terms.

So Davis has said we don't know what impact Brexit will have.

Now Hammond says we're not sure what we're working towards.

This isn't worrying at all.

Jack Maidment
@jrmaidment

Philip Hammond says Cabinet has not formally agreed a Brexit "end state" for the UK.
He told the Treasury Select Committee: "We haven't had a specific mandating of an end state position.

Bit more from Hammond

Jack Maidment
@jrmaidment
Philip Hammond tells the Treasury Select Committee that leaving the single market is "not a decision" but simply a "logical consequence" of the UK leaving the European Union.

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Philip Hammond hints that UK may still pay exit bill even if there is no trade deal. “I find it inconceivable that we would walk away from obligations that we recognise as an obligation”

Asa Bennett
@asabenn
Philip Hammond contradicts his own chief secretary on Brexit bill.
Liz Truss told MPs last week it would be "contingent on getting a suitable" deal.
Now he tells MPs it would be "inconceivable" that Britain could "be walking away" without paying it

More confusion ? Must be good for someone ...