Westministenders: A week in politics is a long time....

[RedToothBrush]

Lost track of politics in the last week or so?

Someone asked how do I keep on top of this? I’ve struggled this week there is so much going on.

Brexit seems to be on a bit of a back burner and we have become utterly swamped in mud and sleaze and corruption allegations

So here is a summary of the last week:

1. Government defeated over the impact reports due to an ancient parliamentary protocol. They must release papers to the public though this is likely to be heavily redacted.
2. Currently we are holding talks about talks with the EU. Instead of speeding up talks. They are annoyed at us for this.
3. Baroness Anelay, the minister responsible for getting the Repel Bill through the Lords, quit citing an injury caused by jumping out of a helicopter several years ago. She was the second person to quit this role. Lord Bridges quit saying it was impossible task.
4. Michael Gove has joined the Brexit Cabinet, which now has a majority of Leavers.
5. There is currently no one employed at the Brexit department for strategic planning.
6. Brexit Bill likely to face even more opposition in the face of Williamson’s self promotion. More Remainers who have been loyal to May talking of joining the Rebel Forces.
7. The has been a threat to rig the Lords to pass the Repel Bill according to Lord Adonis
8. Clegg, Adonis and Clarke went to see Barnier. Farage got jealous.
9. Talks for Stormont broke down. No direct rule but not home rule. Who is ruling is a mystery, but the same can be said in England at present. DUP are not getting their dosh.
10. FTA may not be possible on lines UK want as it would be better than Canada and South Korea and that’s not legally allowed. The real problem for the UK is services.
11. EHCR related issues – prisoner voting rights and letter to Romanian which brings into question whether the EHCR is deliberately being flouted.
12. Clause in the data protection bill which allows it to be ignored ‘cos immigration’.
13. The Electoral Commission are being sued for allowing over spending by Vote Leave
14. Arron Banks is being investigated by the Electoral Commission over how he donated to political causes
15. UKIP whistleblowers reported donations they thought were odd and not declared but only just has come to light
16. Arron Banks is winding up a charity under investigation by the Charities Commission
17. Arron Banks paid for Kate Hoey to go to Washington DC.
18. Lord Ashcroft apparently exposed by the Bermuda hack, like Robert Mercer
19. Steve Baker reported for taking money from the mysterious donor to the DUP
20. Priti Patel breaks ministerial code with an undisclosed trip to Israel with lobbyist. May says she has done nothing wrong, despite it being clear breech of the rules.
21. Michael Fallon quit over multiple incidents
22. Damien Green embroiled in accusation over Kate Maltby. Also having a fight with former counter terrorism copper who he has history with over ‘extreme porn’ found on his computer during a raid. Copper previously said he had been set up in the paper but dropped the accusation. Green is denying everything
23. Charlie Elphicke has had the whip removed and case has been referred to police. Says he has done nothing wrong and isn’t even aware of what he has been accused of.
24. Steven Crabb under investigation for sexting. Has apologised.
25. Michael Garnier under investigation for dildo buying. Has apologised
26. Daniel Kawcyznski allegedly tried to set up dates with aides and wealthy friends
27. Dan Poulter reported by fellow tory MP Andrew Bridgen for allegedly putting hands up skirts. Whips told in 2010.
28. Chris Pincher alleged pound shop Weinstein who attempted to untuck the shirt of former Olympic rower and tory activist Alex Story.
29. Gavin Barwell former whip and May’s special adviser. Broke special advisor code by tweeting politically controversial things. Is accused of being complicit in hiding the bodies and not taking action.
30. Gavin Williamson gave himself a promotion and pissed everyone off. As former whip knows all the dirt but is vulnerable as a result of that, as he didn’t report or discipline offenders.
31. ‘The Lift Lunger’ – as yet unnamed Tory MP said to have ‘attacked’ Labour MP in taxi. Date rape drugs possibly involved.
32. Boris Johnson, Alok Sharma and Tobias Ellwood all named as having contact with the mysterious Maltese professor named in the Papadopoulos indictment.
33. Farage makes anti-Semitic remarks on LBC. That’s Farage, a person of interest to the FBI.
34. Three indictments in USA for Trump Russia. Which implicate a whole load of people by association.
35. Some stuff is going on in Saudi Arabia which should have half an eye kept on it.
36. Jared O’Mara, Clive Lewis, Ivan Lewis and Kelvin Hopkins on the Labour Shit List. Also a rape allegation against a Labour activist which was shut down by a senior Labour figure

This week the Repel Bill and the Budget. Plus no doubt, lots more scandal.

Neville Morley‏ @NevilleMorley
Neville Morley Retweeted Carl Gardner
“We’re trying to do something really tricky on a tight timetable with little flexibility. Let’s get rid of that flexibility, that’ll help!”
@carlgardner
May is unwise to want to fix "exit day" now in the EU (Withdrawal) Bill. It's yet another misstep. Far better to have a power to set it later, as the Bill says now.

Jo Maugham on TM saying she won't have 'the will of the people' ignored
@JolyonMaugham
Things Theresa May will tolerate: dishonesty, sexual harassment, incompetence.

Things Theresa May won't tolerate: MPs protecting our constitution.

Bet you've seen this, Hashi James O'Brien on "If you see Paul Dacre, ask him what he's proud of?"
www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obrien-rips-apart-the-daily-mail-editor/?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

@britainelects

Stubbington (Fareham) result:

LDEM: 55.2% (+32.4)
CON: 35.8% (+6.1)
UKIP: 5.4% (-37.9)
LAB: 3.5% (-0.5)

LDem GAIN from UKIP.

@britainelects
Nov 8

"Britain will be economically better off post Brexit":

Agree: 37% (-6)
Disagree: 40% (+5)

via @ORB_Int, 05 Nov

Changes with October.
First crossover in poll series.

Why the rush with the leaving date and time?^

Lord Kerr - author of A50 - said on Today that he thought enshrining the date in law was a (relatively) good thing as at least it stops Brexit happening by stealth through use of a statutory instrument. He was insistent that the UK could reverse A50 at any point.

Of the five by elections last night 2 Labour hold, 2 Conservative hold. The fifth seat looks surprising at first sight - a Lib Dem gain from UKIP, in Fareham (Hants) but not so surprising when you realise that the previous UKIP person had gone over to the Tories so the drift away from UKIP had already started. A Lib Dem win over the Tories in Hants doesn't seem quite so exciting.

Since there will be major council elections coming up in May 2018 the number of by elections is now likely to decline, as seats which become vacant but are due to be contested in May will be left vacant until then.

"Penny Mordaunt's main qualification for the job is that she's a Eurosceptic."^ from indo.^

That's what I was complaining to dh about yesterday about the commentary in the run up to the announcement of Morduant I agree, she sounds like a Death Eater : since when was the prime qualification for a role your view on the EU rather than your suitability for the specific role ?

It's a perfect illustration of the depths to which our expectations of a functioning government, drawing on the best and most appropriate talent, have fallen. Yes, I know I'm being naive

A Tory MP's view on the EU is now the only thing which matters to their party because it's become the all consuming issue. I keep hoping that it will destroy them, and that we eventually get a better more representative electoral system out of it.

Still no solution to the N.I border issue then ?

Calls for rallies in every town on December 11th and discussion on why there is not national leader for Remain:

@Sillyshib
Sad fact is, no one wants 2 step up because I think they fear they will be assassinated. It's a legit fear. They have form. And the nutjobs are all in the leave camp

Lots of local businesses have offered funding and support for local Remain quiz night.

They do not want their names on fliers or publicity materials for fear of reprisals.

bobo there never will be, they don't care about NI as they've made abundantly clear. And of course any border fall out will be the eu fault because the eu didn't come up to a solution for a mess they created. It's just punishment of course, because the eu don't do borders according to some buffoons.

The talk of NI is increasingly looking like a straight choice between a hard border or keeping NI separate to the rest of the country within the customs union.

There is no other option. And neither option is politically acceptable to the DUP.

The Tories have no option but to throw the DUP under the bus at some point. Throwing the DUP under the bus, might backfire. Which is why no one is even talking about NI at this stage. The Tories don't want to admit it, the DUP are in denial of it and the EU don't want to be the ones seen to be spelling it out. The Irish have but no one is listening.

Most likely option at this stage is thought to be a hard border. This has implications for the Good Friday agreement...

And we should never have got this far without a plan on how it would be resolved.

Cameron should never have called a Referendum without thinking through this situation. It makes me really angry - as I have said many times - the GFA was hard won by a lot of people putting in some serious work and to throw it away casually, is IMO bordering on the criminal.

Interestingly I don't equate British Jews with the Israelis

I need to re visit this.

Would you say this about British Nigerians and Nigerians or British Irish and Irish?

If not why not?

Many British Jews are not descended from survivors of the holocaust.
Many Israelis are.

Why?
Because in 1930s England, in thrall to the Daily Mail, most were refused asylum.

Those who were refused were burned or gassed to death or made it to Israel with tattoos hot branded on their arms.

I worked with those survivors on my kibbutz.

Including a lady who must have been my age now. She had a branded number on her arm and was mad. She had been 'experimented' on by Mengele.

The numbers of even non holocaust descendent Jews seeking refuge from Britain and France now are on a steep incline.

Like Syrian refugees who are also finding refuge in Israel, but not in Britain.

www.algemeiner.com/2017/11/08/yes-some-criticism-of-israel-is-antisemitism/

The EU is reiterating its stance on the NI problem:

www.rte.ie/news/2017/1109/918860-northern-irish-border-after-brexit/

that would be untenable to Scotland
And Grimsby it would seem.

Grimsby is asking for a Free Port arrangement - which could work.

And Grimsby it would seem.

I'm very disappointed in Grimsby. I find their lack of faith... disturbing.

I agree. They have no idea what they are doing though. They might do anything which is destructive unwittingly to try and save their own necks.

May trying to set in stone the Brexit date is a reaction to Lord Kerr's statement. It's not a leadership thing. It's a reactionary thing. The timing of the announcement screams of desperation.

All it does is up the stakes higher. She's taking a gamble in thinking it will work.

Everything will come to a head at some point because so many things are on direct collision courses. When that happens and what triggers it are the only things up for debate. Is this it? I don't know.

But

If May does actually table the Brexit day amendment, she will only do so if she thinks can win. Well if she holds true to form and her management style. For the same reason that she's trying to push it, is also the same reason she can't back down from herself if it's officially put forward. And to be honest, stating it personally herself, rather than being chatter in the paper, also commits herself to it. So watch out for a speech or statement by May about it. Rebels with know she can be hung by it as much as she is trying to hang them by it.

Which makes even the suggestion of it perhaps more significant and perhaps an all or nothing move.

It was said that May could only survive one more political crisis after the Tory party conference speech. Fallon represents one, Patel two. She has more queuing up unresolved.

I do know that May playing chicken with her Tory Rebels only adds fuel to the fire and brings it forward whenever it is.

My suspicion is that there is a growing feeling amongst rebels and even some moderate loyalists is that at some point they think they will have to stand up to her over something even with Corbyn lurking in the background.

Even the epidemic of party first mentality is only tenable if you think the party can survive May.

I also note that the Brexit day news is also coupled with an ultimatum from younger Tories. The threat is there and this generation is clearly saying now that the Tory party can not survive if May carries on with the course she is taking.

Take this seriously. This is their own political future they are fighting for. It's more important and significant than arguments over Brexit because it's about this notion of whether the party can survive May over and above whether the party can survive Brexit.

Yet another round of brinkmanship and threats by May won't be taken well by them because it's more of the exact same thing which has made the situation worse and worse. She can not lead by threats alone. She needs consensus which she is not seeking to find and hasn't since the election.

It remains to be seen if the whips office will be as tight without Williamson. Pay close attention to the chatter around it.

This is an important battle in the civil war.

Because in 1930s England, in thrall to the Daily Mail,

Having her hair done MrsLH got chatting to the lady waiting next to her, who was reading the news on her iPad (!). Tuned out she was 96, and loved the internet as it kept her in touch with her great-grandkids. She thought people were "being silly" wanting to leave the EU. She did have four children, but her eldest was killed during the war. He was a pilot in the RAF. MrsLH said she felt privileged to meet her.

woman11017

I didn't mean any offence. It's just something I noticed in myself.
For me it's about separating cultural and religious identity with political and national identity.
For instance I'm (British) Irish Catholic by background which is very different from Italian Catholic. And yes britush Irish is very different from Irish. Some cultural similarities - shame/ guilt etc and bizarrely I understand how the abuse cases happened but culturally it is very different. Our experiences in our home countries change us.
It's interesting to here about the background of Israelis as opposed to British Jews. Thank you. I'll think about that.

Would you say this about British Nigerians and Nigerians or British Irish and Irish?

If not why not?

Yes.

Identity is about the sum of your total parts. Sometimes you can identify as one part of that more than another but you still have the other influencing you.

An Israeli Jew is not influenced by their experience of an alternative identity if they don't have one. I do believe that some people with dual identity focus on part of it perhaps even more strongly than if they only had single identity at times where they have personal conflict or crisis over their identity. Example some one facing racism rejects Britain and tries to be more Nigerian. However because of their experience they present themselves as what they perceive it is to be a true Nigerian. In the process some individuals can rather overcook it in their desire to be that singular identify by fixating on particular ideas, characteristics or beliefs.

However the reality of their experience of being a Brit means they can never truly be the same as a Nigerian as their experiences and the influences they have been exposed to are intrinsically different.

You can never escape this with your identity. And whilst shared values and experiences with different groups make you closer and more able to understand and identify with those with single indentity.

There is a certain fatalism in this, but I do not believe you can ever escape your past no matter how much you try. You have to come to terms with who you are, whatever that might be, one way or another. That's what makes us unique and human and we should embrace it rather than trying to force our own internal conflicts on others.

My suspicion is that there is a growing feeling amongst rebels and even some moderate loyalists is that at some point they think they will have to stand up to her over something even with Corbyn lurking in the background.

My own feeling is that something trivial, I don't know what, will be the straw which breaks the camel's back.

I think the party can survive May; whether it can survive its own internal contradictions is much more debatable.