Westminstenders: Boom. The Brexit Backlash starts to hit.

[RedToothBrush]

So it turns out that immigration figures that stated students overstayed were wrong. The home office knew this. And sat on it. Since 2015. Under Theresa.

That smells a bit doesn't it?

Imagine it: "Let's do lunch Paul. I'll cover up and give you a nice immigration story for your front page. In return, crown me PM."

Then tonight BOOM. Labour look like they have made a move. Soft very swishy Brexit. Even less brexity than the Beano Brexit that the Tories have been trying to announce on the quiet over the summer whilst Brexiteers are on holiday.

amp.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market
Party opens clear divide with Tories, with support for free movement and paying into EU budgets for up to four years

Labour is to announce a dramatic policy shift by backing continued membership of the EU single market beyond March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, establishing a clear dividing line with the Tories on Brexit for the first time.

In a move that positions it decisively as the party of “soft Brexit”, Labour will support full participation in the single market and customs union during a lengthy “transitional period” that it believes could last between two and four years after the day of departure, it is to announce on Sunday.

This will mean that under a Labour government the UK would continue to abide by the EU’s free movement rules, accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice on trade and economic issues, and pay into the EU budget for a period of years after Brexit, in the hope of lessening the shock of leaving to the UK economy. In a further move that will delight many pro-EU Labour backers, Jeremy Corbyn’s party will also leave open the option of the UK remaining a member of the customs union and single market for good, beyond the end of the transitional period.

Why would Labour suddenly do this? It's not just because of the youth vote. What about their leave voters?

Faisal Islam on the subject:
2. On Labour Leavers is very very interesting and involves quite the psephological judgement re the election....
...the calculation appears to be that Labour Leave voters had the chance to vote for Theresa May's brand of Brexit, and bar 5 seats, said No
Was that because Lableave voters were already signalled "hard Brexit"? Or many millions such voters much more concerned about other things?

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

Theresa has also apparently set her sell by date: Friday 30th August 2019.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894.amp
Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

The longer the transition and the squishier it gets, the more the more you wonder.

Mr Barnier will enjoy his coffee and newspapers tomorrow as he prepares for round two of Brexit talks starting next week.

The question on his mind most: Will David Davis remember to bring his notes this time?

Do tell me... or shall we just pull the plug on pensions and require all those fit enough to work to work until they become too ill?

The pension age does seem to be moving away from me at an alarming rate at the moment. I fully expect this to be the case for people my age and younger to be honest.

School places - for ideological reasons, central government has banned local authorities from opening new schools. New schools have to be free schools and the chains behind them tend not to want to open them in places of need, but in places of money...

So again the solution is in Westminster's hands.

The pension age does seem to be moving away from me at an alarming rate at the moment. I fully expect this to be the case for people my age and younger to be honest.

Mind you, when old age pensions were introduced the majority of people didn't live long after retirement. Or even in the 1950s - GF retired slightly early at 64 after a heart attack and died at just turned 71. DF was 90 when he died. There is a bit of difference in having to pay pensions for 5 years and 35 years.

Again, as with the 'demetia tax' it's something which needs to have a proper debate, and thorough research, not just ideas tossed out to fill election manifestos.

And yes, I am drawing a pension myself, which was delayed by a year, which is a good deal better than many have experienced.

Yes, it is a discussion that needs to be had peregrina. My mother died at age 58, my dad is actually as well off on his various pensions and life insurance than he was when he was working. Others I meet through volunteering work are living in poverty. It is a very mixed picture at the moment with a lot of problems.

The thing is I am now career planning based on the idea that I will not get a state pension. I am planning how I can change my work as I age to ensure I am bringing in some income in a manageable way. A lot of people older than me will have been promised a pension and be working on that basis. It is too late for many of them to change career plans and adjust.

bigly I've long since realised I'll likely be dead before I hit whatever pension age it'll be when I'm near. Porbably if old age rather than disease mind you.

Anecdotal but a young and idealistic relative thought she might go into the care sector. She wanted to "give something back". She spent a day shadowing the only British carer in the care company, and decided in the end it wasn't for her - she thought she could cope with the physical side but not the emotional.
What she really took away from her day was a profound respect for the care workers, their skills and kindness. Bar the one lady she spent the day with, all were Eastern European or Filipina (just one, a live in nurse). All had relevant qualifications from their home countries and many were trained nurses. They were doing a wonderful job on minimum wage and with the usual nonsense of not being paid for travelling time and not even having it factored into their schedules, so a visit that should be half an hour was in reality 15 minutes (I thought this had been stopped but seemingly not). My relative was shocked at this state of affairs, and it was another reason for rejecting entering the sector.

There are loads of things the government could have done to help UK residents get work - improve apprenticeships by incentivising companies to do so. Improve the bursary's for nurses not remove them. Reduce the hoops medical students have to jump over to get into med. school in this country are just some. But government after government have done nothing, instead they have gone the easy route and perpetuated the system we have now where we have virtually full employment because we employ loads of people from other countries. Because the £ is low and obviously uncertainty at the moment this has come back to bit us. Maybe a complete rehash of the whole system will have to come from this. I hope so.

Maybe a complete rehash of the whole system will have to come from this. I hope so.

I hope so too. We should be doing all the things you mention. It does feel like moving house just so we can rearrange the furniture is a bit overkill though.

If we had just got on and fixed the problems instead of resorting to blaming all our troubles on someone else we wouldn't be in this mess now.

The pension age does seem to be moving away from me at an alarming rate at the moment. I fully expect this to be the case for people my age and younger to be honest.

DH is convinced he will not retire as the age increases.

He somewhat resents paying the state pensions of public sector workers who retired when they were 50. Especially when those he knows are Leavers.

Maybe a complete rehash of the whole system will have to come from this. I hope so.

But how on earth is that ever going to happen when the focus is going to be on dealing with the fall out from Brexit for the foreseeable future.

Why, when there's never been any appetite to change these things previously, do you think any government is suddenly going to address these issues on top of everything else Brexit related that needs dealing with?

Public sector workers who retired at 50 wouldn't have been able to draw the state pension until their then state retirement age. If they are drawing an Occupational pension, it's something they have contributed to. Even then taking that early usually means you take a hit on the amount you get.

Why, when there's never been any appetite to change these things previously, do you think any government is suddenly going to address these issues on top of everything else Brexit related that needs dealing with?

Only if they realise it's a vote loser. I saw a Tory comment yesterday, saying that we can't expect young people to buy into Capitalism if they are never able to acquire any Capital.

Bigly that's where I'm at.

I don't deny there is problems. I very much recognise them. When you actively know local councillors are taking back handers you know something is wrong.

You have to properly understand problems to solve them, not assume you know the solution and then fit it to the problem to match your ideology or what you believe the problem is. Thats not identifying what the problem really is, and doesn't change a what the problem is. This poor management skills - people are taught this is poor management skills - and is 100% what Brexit is.

I'm guessing though from comments up thread, that there are a disproportionate number of people in authority who have never been taught these basics.

If they are drawing an Occupational pension, it's something they have contributed to. Even then taking that early usually means you take a hit on the amount you get.

Still more than many of us younger ones will ever be able to build up in a pension pot. Even in good professional jobs.

I think you are conflating the state pension with occupational pension there Red. Public Sector workers get the state pension at the same age as anyone else - I'm a former one - and won't get my state pension until 67.

The pension they might get at 50 will be an occupational one which they will have contributed to. Same as anyone with a private pension.

The various public sector pension schemes have been contributed to. However, they are defined benefit schemes, unlike most private pension schemes, which for some years have been defined contribution schemes.

This means that the contributions made by public pension scheme members do not necessarily cover the benefits paid out to retired members. In which case, taxpayers do make up the shortfall.

The only thing that makes me feel sad about leaving my local government job is losing my LGPS pension.

I miss you pension of the future, I really do.

What happens to the elderly in the countries the carers would be imported from?

Well for a start, in many such countries the demographics are completely different to ours. The UK has both longer average lifespans and fewer working age adults per elderly person than anywhere in sub-Saharan Africa and also many Asian countries such as the Philippines, this being common sources for nurses at the moment.

So you need to not start from the point of the society supplying the carers to have the same need for them the UK does. Would be very arrogant to presume our demographics are replicated globally.

WRT bricklayers, there's no reason why we couldn't cover them in skilled worker Tier 2 visas. There's precedent for skilled manual labour to be on the shortage occupation list too- some type of sheep shearing was briefly, a few years ago!

I hope that joiner from Lancashire and his sister will be fine. This story might even catch Daily Mail reader's attention.

Would be very arrogant to presume our demographics are replicated globally.

It seems a unifying trait of Leavers that they are able to lump "the rest of the world" into one single entity ...

I had a quick google for immigration figures for Lancashire and I have to say, that Lancashire builder is bloody unlucky.

It seems that across Lancashire as a whole, EU nationals make up 0.5% of the population, with Polish nationals making the majority of that figure. Indeed, articles on the subject were mainly talking about why it was that immigration was by-passing Lancashire as a whole (low employment; lack of economic opportunity) and the problems associated with this.

Obviously, anecdote is not data. There may be individual, specific reasons why your builder is losing out on the work. Perhaps he lacks skills? perhaps he has a bad reputation? Perhaps he doesn't come across very well when discussing projects with potential new clients?

However, statistics would suggest that lack of economic growth in the area is leading to less building work generally. Perhaps its not Bulgarians (so specific!) that are taking the work.

I totally agree that the Daily Mail might be interested in his story. They love outliers that seem to chime in with people's pre-existing cognitive bias.

What happens to the elderly in the countries the carers would be imported from?
The relative I mentioned spoke to the Filipina nurse while they were waiting for the lady she was caring for to wake up. She asked her what happened to the elderly/severely disabled in the Phillipines given that many carers were working abroad. The nurse told her that they were cared for by relatives who stayed at home, in many cases financed to some degree by those working abroad.

Except defined benefits schemes just don't exist any more, do they? So back in the day, a person with 30 years service could retire on a full works pension (because someone else was paying the economic price).

Defined benefits schemes do still exist in the public sector, albeit the employee contribution rate is generally higher, the payout is career average rather than final salary and the early retirement option is gone. In compensation public sector wages and conditions are now much more competitive relative to the private sector than they were.

Personally I wouldn't want a defined benefit pension as it dies with you unlike a defined contribution and they are mostly excluded from all the new pension freedoms. They are also usually structured to provide an element of golden handcuffs. In the private sector there is always the risk that, as with BHS, the scheme will become insolvent and benefits, already contributed towards, reduced.