Westminstenders: Boom. The Brexit Backlash starts to hit.

[RedToothBrush]

So it turns out that immigration figures that stated students overstayed were wrong. The home office knew this. And sat on it. Since 2015. Under Theresa.

That smells a bit doesn't it?

Imagine it: "Let's do lunch Paul. I'll cover up and give you a nice immigration story for your front page. In return, crown me PM."

Then tonight BOOM. Labour look like they have made a move. Soft very swishy Brexit. Even less brexity than the Beano Brexit that the Tories have been trying to announce on the quiet over the summer whilst Brexiteers are on holiday.

amp.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market
Party opens clear divide with Tories, with support for free movement and paying into EU budgets for up to four years

Labour is to announce a dramatic policy shift by backing continued membership of the EU single market beyond March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, establishing a clear dividing line with the Tories on Brexit for the first time.

In a move that positions it decisively as the party of “soft Brexit”, Labour will support full participation in the single market and customs union during a lengthy “transitional period” that it believes could last between two and four years after the day of departure, it is to announce on Sunday.

This will mean that under a Labour government the UK would continue to abide by the EU’s free movement rules, accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice on trade and economic issues, and pay into the EU budget for a period of years after Brexit, in the hope of lessening the shock of leaving to the UK economy. In a further move that will delight many pro-EU Labour backers, Jeremy Corbyn’s party will also leave open the option of the UK remaining a member of the customs union and single market for good, beyond the end of the transitional period.

Why would Labour suddenly do this? It's not just because of the youth vote. What about their leave voters?

Faisal Islam on the subject:
2. On Labour Leavers is very very interesting and involves quite the psephological judgement re the election....
...the calculation appears to be that Labour Leave voters had the chance to vote for Theresa May's brand of Brexit, and bar 5 seats, said No
Was that because Lableave voters were already signalled "hard Brexit"? Or many millions such voters much more concerned about other things?

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

Theresa has also apparently set her sell by date: Friday 30th August 2019.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894.amp
Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

The longer the transition and the squishier it gets, the more the more you wonder.

Mr Barnier will enjoy his coffee and newspapers tomorrow as he prepares for round two of Brexit talks starting next week.

The question on his mind most: Will David Davis remember to bring his notes this time?

Er, as having a skill.....

You can't just give anyone a brick and some cement and think they can build a wall- it's a skill.

How do you rate "skilled"? The specific case I shared above relates to general labourers but also includes bricklayers and plasterers. In the US, to get an L1 Visa your employer has to demonstrate that they have taken steps to find that particular skill or experience-set among the local (existing US citizen) workforce

If they tried to get L1 visas for bricklayers they would be laughed put of court

Angela Merkel says she wouldn't change the way she handled the refugee crisis

The German Chancellor said the only policy error came before borders were opened

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-syrian-refugees-crisis-million-repeat-do-the-same-again-a7918811.html

Ain't she great, and facing down the Afd, rather than threatening to deport british born youngsters, and pregnant Chinese women.

'live well and happily'

So glad she looks like she's going to smash them in the elections.

When she does, that will be a euro hat trick: France, Netherlands and Germany.

that how do you think FOM is going to work after Brexit?

Serious question.

We have always had the ability to restrict it, we've chosen not to.

How do you think we are actually going to administer and monitor immigration in the future?

What controls can we put in place that we couldn't have done without leaving the EU?

woman isn't it lovely to see a bit if decency in the world? Thanks for the wishes for DD, she's feeling more bored than anything right now!

woman isn't it lovely to see a bit if decency in the world? Thanks for the wishes for DD, she's feeling more bored than anything right now!

Interesting Faisal Islam thread on Vote Leave's desire to stay in single market.

@faisalislam
Faisal Islam Retweeted Oliver Norgrove
This is from someone on the Vote Leave staff: 1/5

@OliverNorgrove
Vote Leave never advocated leaving the Single Market: www.norgroveblog.co.uk/2017/08/there-is-no-real-mandate-to-leave.html …

Good to hear hashi bored is good.

Merkel even has the balls to face down Afd demonstrators, a paltry 100, at a campaign rally.

Hmm...well, I guess your bricklayer friend will be able to charge more for his work, but your elderly relatives won't be able to get a carer. You win some, you lose some, right...

I saw that Oliver Norgrove blog woman and couldn't decide what I felt about it. General frustration mostly I think.

Smells like Leave wanted to remain.
Tim Dowling has a funny theory about betting and the referendum.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/30/cynical-leave-campaign-bet-against-brexit-ac-grayling
Did leavers really bet against Brexit?

Bearbehind
Do you think they there should be any conrtols on immigration?
If you do, what should these be and why?

Steve Analyst‏*@EmporersNewC*
Almost every time a problem was raised during the referendum “We” could fix it. They were all "trivial" problems with "simple" solutions.
We will be able to trade with the world. We will be able to rebuild our fishing industry. We can manufacture again.
We can train our own nurses. We can create our own scientific community. We can make our own cars. We can pick our own fruit.
Well guess what? The problems are going to happen and if “we” don’t do something about it, and Brexit will fail.
The problem being, the vast majority of those people who said “We” were actually volunteering someone else.
“Someone else” is going to trade with the world. “Someone else” if going to rebuild the fishing industry.
“Someone else” is going to manufacture, “someone else” is going to train the nurses, and “someone else is going to be the nurses”.
“Someone else” is going to start the international scientific community, and “someone else” is going to pick the fruit.
“Someone else” is going to get together with another group of someone else’s to make cars.
They are going to hire a designer that nobody can name and borrow a huge sum of money from an unnamed bank.
Then enter a competitive market high risk market with a massive cost of entry
Well guess what? These problems are facing the country, and not those simple solutions are all on you Leavers.
There is no point looking at the people who didn’t vote for it and asking why they aren’t helping.
If Remainers wanted to do those things before, they are going to be doing them now, but the UK remains a free country.
Nobody should be giving up their dreams and ambitions to dedicate their lives to doing something they didn’t want to do.
So, if you don’t want Brexit to fail, stop venting your outrage on twitter about people moaning, because that “Someone else” is now you.
Because Brexit is guaranteed to fail when those imaginary people you volunteered don’t show up to solve the problems you’ve helped create.
You need to be investing in the country. You need to be training as nurses. You need to be picking that fruit.
If you’re one of those Brexit academics, you need to be looking at how the UK adequately replaces Horizon
You had a vision for Britain, and just voting for it isn’t going to make it happen. The government can only lay the groundwork.
This is happening, Leavers, you won, and now all those simple solutions proposed have to be implemented to make Brexit a success.
The only way to stop Remainers moaning about Brexit is to quit your jobs and do the things you said would be done.
You had the option to vote for the status quo but you voted for radical change.
You wanted it, you’ve got it, now get on with it.
If you’re not prepared to do that, then don’t complain if this whole exercise suddenly stops /End

Something to mention to Leavers. Especially the retired ones - will they go back to work to implement Brexit.

If the answer is no, tell 'em to shove it!

Apparently AC Grayling gave a talk on Leavers betting on Remain, has anyone heard it?
From the expressions on MG and BJ the morning after, looked like they'd lost, maybe a bet too?

BiglyBadgers
Your elderly relatives won't be able to get a carer
Why not?
Can carers for the elderly only come from outside the UK?
What happens to the elderly in the countries the carers would be imported from?

Bearbehind
Do you think they there should be any conrtols on immigration?
If you do, what should these be and why?

Start by looking at the controls we already have available to us within the EU. But we have already had this conversation and you can't be arsed to actually learn about the subject you are arguing about, so this is all getting a bit tedious now. What a shame.

If they tried to get L1 visas for bricklayers they would be laughed put of court
But there you have it: the US is prepared to enforce its Labour laws. Our Government is quite happy not to fund proper apprenticeships, and then quite happy to see other employers undercut those who are paying the proper wage. And blind eyes are turned to sub-standard housing conditions for those workers. So again, much can come back to policies dictated by Westminster, and in the case of housing, blind eyes turned by Local Authorities.

This last about housing is anecdotal, but near MIL is a shed, supposedly used for storage and neighbours are pretty sure it's being used to house workers. The trouble is, there is never anyone around when the Inspectors come. It sounds dodgy. What's the truth? I don't know, but since they whopped up this storage shed without permission, then yes, they could easily be breaking a few more laws, and a crony is tipping them off about the Inspector's visits.

More from the leaver who wants to remain:

Vote Leave did not ever present to the electorate a plan for Brexit, and did not advocate leaving the Single Market. Don't believe me? Our website is still online at voteleavetakecontrol.org. Take a look at our campaign messages and our claims. We argue for things which are utterly achievable in the EEA and make no mention at all of leaving the Single Market

www.norgroveblog.co.uk/2017/08/there-is-no-real-mandate-to-leave.html

Well, he's a tory bigly so...... but interesting to watch the fault lines in the torykips turn into chasms .

Can carers for the elderly only come from outside the UK?
No, but in practice, substantial numbers do.

What happens to the elderly in the countries the carers would be imported from?
Good question - except many are still more family orientated than we are, and look after their elderly at home.

As far as health care workers are concerned, we would import more from Commonwealth countries, thus depriving them of sorely needed human labour and expertise themselves. So the Government has just made plans to double nursing and midwifery places? Nope. Increase bursaries to encourage more into those professions? Nope again, just scrapped bursaries. Back to what Westminster does again.

FOM has caused massive impact in many many parts of the UK with massive increases in the need for school places, housing, doctors appointment . The list is long. A country's resources need to keep with growing demand.

Birth rate - is that EU immigration or non-EU immigration? Given that non-immigration is higher.... Its also nothing to do with a change in social issues where women in a certain age group left having children later so we had a period of very low birth rate as they didn't have children when 30 years ago they would have, and now they suddenly are all having those children. Of course local councils knew there would be an issue some years ago when the birth rate started to rise, but did fuck all. Much of the issue lies with poor planning rather than because we can't cope. (Its a political issue rather than an immigration issue)
Doctors - increase in demand is nothing to do with the aging population. Nothing at all. Who are all these doctors anyway
Housing - We could do with doing something about the housing stock we have that isn't fit for purpose. Plus its not like we haven't got loads of empty houses. Why is that?

Many many of these things are a consequence of the baby boomer population leaving the workplace. They outnumber the younger generations AND need supporting.

What's the solution to that?

Do tell me... or shall we just pull the plug on pensions and require all those fit enough to work to work until they become too ill?

Can carers for the elderly only come from outside the UK?

You really don't know anything about the issue facing social care and the impact brexit will have do you? You just recite the word immigration like it answers everything. We have a huge shortage of carers in the UK as it is. Even with EU workers we are struggling to recruit the numbers needed. Rising elderly population means that this need will increase.

Of course we could help recruitment of carers from the UK by providing greater funding for local government so they could afford to pay carers more and improve working conditions. We may then have more people from the UK who would want to do the job. Of course, there is no need to leave the EU to do that we could just get on with it.

Placed applicants to nursing degrees has actually reduced this year despite the Government claiming that moving to student loans would increase numbers of student nurses. We are simply in no position to replace nurses from the EU with people from the UK before brexit and since EU nurses are already starting to leave in record numbers we are really pretty screwed already.

that, answering a question with a question is another tried and tested leaver tact.

I asked you how you see FOM working once we leave and what measures we can put in place that we couldn't have done without leaving the EU.

I'm assuming, as you responded with a basically reversed question to me, you can't actually answer my question i.e., you have not got a clue how anything will change but you just want to say that we can stop the foreigners coming in and taking our jobs etc.

As far as Social care is concerned - once they were Local Authority employees. Never especially well paid, but on proper contracts, defined hours etc.. Now, all this has been outsourced, so who knows? Did the EU force that decision on us? No. Yet again, it comes back to Westminster, and political dogma.