Westminsterenders: The Ersatz ImitationThread

[OlennasWimple]

I am no RedToothBrush, so I'm not going to try to emulate her exception OP style.

Here, though, in the interests of carrying on our conversations about WTF is going on with Brexit and the weird political world we find ourselves in right now, is a sort of continuation thread

(Hurry back Red, we need you!)

Not Red but out of a whole raft of anti-avoidance measures that fall under this umbrella, the one I see as most relevant to this point is: europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1433_en.htm i.e. "...the formal adoption today of new EU rules to prevent tax avoidance via non-EU countries."

As far as I can see, this will affect the UK most profoundly because the list of Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies reads like the Idiot's Guide to Tax Avoidance & Evasion (Cayman, Bermuda, BVI, Anguilla, Turks & Caicos, Gibraltar, Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man). The last 4 are already covered via ongoing - recently souped up - information exchange, but I don't think the rest are.

There was much puff for a while regarding the % of London property held in corporate structures domiciled in such locations; indeed using them is standard process for much of the management consultancy and financial management industries in UK (today). And not just for business-companies but also personal-companies. The UK government has been trying to avoid too much focus on this for some time, summed up by this statement (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_haven):

In September 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron said "I do not think it is fair any longer to refer to any of the Overseas Territories or Crown Dependencies as tax havens. They have taken action to make sure that they have fair and open tax systems. It is very important that our focus should now shift to those territories and countries that really are tax havens." Mr Cameron's comments were interpreted as a direct reference to Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man, the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands, and followed a period of negotiations with those (and other) British territories during which those jurisdictions had made a number of concessions relating to tax transparency and sharing of information. Anti-tax haven pressure groups immediately accused the Prime Minister of taking leave of his senses, and commenting sarcastically "It was Cameron's father's tax haven activities that are repotted [sic] to have paid for his Eton education. Was it ever realistic to think he'd change his spots?".

This is what I assumed this part of the EU measures will neutralize and that's why it's such a big deal for the UK and in particular the wealthier fraction of society.

The tax thing is intriguing - one of my peeves against the EU before this whole clusterfuck began was that they hadn't exactly been very proactive in tackling aggressive tax avoidance but the UK has pretty much encouraged it by allowing so many loopholes (a close relative is a very senior tax consultant and says it is laughably easy to dodge tax in the UK, he doesn't even see why "wealth creators" should pay tax but that's another story ).

Meanwhile, the government promises to put some flesh on its Brexit carcass with a series of papers next month. Let's hope they have more detail then, for example, the Article 50 white paper. I'm very curious to see the proposals for the Irish/NI border solution .

flesh on its Brexit carcass

So they're admitting it's dead ?

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/08/07/the-fight-for-chingford-is-labour-on-track-to-unseat-ids
The fight for Chingford: Is Labour on track to unseat IDS?

John Redwood @ johnredwood
I am suspicious of the idea that the state should tell people how much property they need or are allowed.

Dear John, please tell me more. Don't you think people should have the opportunity to have a roof over their head? Or are you just happy with lots of people on the streets since the state won't provide that either which I'm sure you are also suspicious of. Maybe you could come out with a cracking social housing scheme to get rid of my suspicions.

www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/08/07/dwp-fights-to-block-publication-of-fit-for-work-documents
DWP fights to block publication of fit-for-work documents

Documents relating to the government's controversial fit-for-work tests could be blocked from publication after the Department for Work and Pensions' (DWP) launched a legal challenge.

In April, John Slater submitted a Freedom of Information request (FOI) asking for details of the 'outcome reports' which are completed by the private company contracted to carry out the tests. The reports would include information about the number of people with a terminal illness or limited capability to work subjected to the test.

The DWP initially said it did not hold the information but later argued that releasing it could damage the company's commercial interests.

The Information Commissioner's Office ruled that the DWP must publish the documents but the department has appealed that decision, meaning the case will now be heard at the First Tier tribunal.

Hmmmm... This could get interesting. Say the courts rule in favour of it being in the public interest, then I think it could open the door to similar challenges against government and local government. It depends on how this case goes and how a judge sees fit to rule on it, but my gut says this is one to watch.

Definitely an interesting one red. I know of a few cases of people with terminal illnesses being asked to attend interviews. My mother being one of them.

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*

Just 20% tell ORB that they believe Brexit will give UK more control over immigration

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
The ORB trackers on approval of the government's BREXIT negotiations

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
ORB tracker on how confidence in TMay's ability to get the right deal

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/us-trade-deal-brexit-cancer-milk-aflatoxins-peanuts-a7877541.html
US trade deal after Brexit could see milk and baby formula with cancer-causing toxins flood UK market
US limits allow up to 20 times more poisonous aflatoxins than the stricterEU regulations

Yummy!

Election Data‏*@election*_data

62 cities analysed. All of them suffer from Brexit. Even more if Brexit USB harder: (by @JonnElledge )

CityMetric‏ @CityMetric
The @CentreforCities has been looking at how will be affected by Brexit. The news is not great, says @JonnElledge

www.citymetric.com/business/which-british-cities-will-be-hit-hardest-brexit-3236
Which British cities will be hit hardest by Brexit?

Soft Brexit - Top 10 cities least affected

1. Crawley
2. Barnsley
3. Hull
4. Blackool
5. Oxford
6. Wakefield
7. Basildon
8. Luton
9. Stoke
10. Burnley

Soft Brexit - Top 10 cities most affect

1. Aberdeen
2. Worthing
3. Swindon
4. Slough
5. Reading
6. Edinburgh
7. Gloucester
8. Northampton
9. Aldershot
10. Middlesbrough

Hard Brexit - Top 10 cities least affected

1. Crawley
2. Barnsley
3. Burnley
4. Hull
5. Wakefield
6. Mansfield
7. Luton
8. Telford
9. Swansea
10. Blackpool

Hard Brexit Top 10 cities most affected

1. Aberdeen
2. Worthing
3. Reading
4. Swindon
5. Slough
6. Edinburgh
7. London
8. Aldershot
9. Leeds
10. Ipswich

Much of the debate around Brexit has had a “turkeys voting for Christmas” subtext to it: a suggestion that the areas that voted Leave would be those most likely to take a hit.

The CfC/CEP report shows that the picture is rather more nuanced than that. In both scenarios, the report says:

“...it is economically vibrant cities - predominantly in the South of England - which will be hit hardest and most directly by Brexit... In contrast, the cities least directly affected by either form of Brexit are mostly less prosperous places in the North, Midlands and Wales.”

That implies a couple of things. One is that it wasn’t turkeys voting for Christmas at all: by and large, those cities with the most to lose from Brexit were actually more likely to vote against it. The other is that, since it’ll be the richer cities which are hit hardest, the aggregate effect of Brexit might actually be worse than a simple average suggests.

That, though, is only the short term effect. The report also makes clear that the most affected cities are also the most resilient, and so the best-placed to respond to the shock. Poorer cities may be less vulnerable to the post-Brexit downturn; but they’ll also find it harder to bounce back.

Oh – and then there’s the matter of EU regional funds, which go overwhelmingly to poorer, more pro-Brexit areas, and which are incredibly unlikely to be replaced by the British government. But that’s another story.

Everyone lives in a city. Obviously.

Does that first ORB graph not mean 65% agree that we will have more control over immigration?

No.

From the Orb data tables, mother is right - 65% agree Britain will have more control over immigration, 20% disagree and 15% don't know.

www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/OmBrexit_Survey-1.pdf

I am also ready that graph as the other way around. The green line is yes, and the red line no..right? Meaning 20% disagree with the statement that we will have more control over immigration and 65% agree with it.

random beat me to it.

Definitely an interesting one red. I know of a few cases of people with terminal illnesses being asked to attend interviews. My mother being one of them.

regarding PIP, when MrsLHs assessment (finally) came, the assessor had no sight whatsoever of the form, or it's 60+ pages of supporting documentation. At least she had the decency to look slightly ill when I gave her a printed copy of it (they "aren't allowed to accept them" apparently).

Every question she asked had been answered in the submission, which I pointed out in answer (luckily I was there, as no allowance had been made for MrsLHs partial sightedness).

Application was awarded with a recommendation for no review for 10 years .... let's see.

I am surprised that Oxford is on the list of least affected by a soft Brexit. With two universities, one world class, the BMW factory, a large teaching hospital, and nearby, but employing many, two Labs of what was the Atomic Energy Authority, but now split into sub groups, I would say that this is all of its major employers taking a hit.

Not sure if this has been posted

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/etias-europe-schengen-passports-permits-holidaymakers-a7877776.html?cmpid=facebook-post.

The joy of having to make sure you full in the forms, pay the fee, have a first night address and sufficient time left on your passport (and not too much since it was issued ) ..... ....and this is for visa free "third countries"

Would the travel rules not apply anyway, since we are outside the Schengen area? All this fuss about controlling our borders, which we did because we weren't in Schengen.

When will we get to a tipping point, when someone in authority wakes up and acknowledging Brexit will be a total disaster, have the guts to face down the right wing Tories, and call the whole thing off?

My reading of it is that this would be more hassle detail that we would need at present: at the moment we might not be in the Schengen area but we are in the Common Travel area whereas post Brexit we would be, as it describes, a "third country".

On the positive side, it is assuming that the E27 would allow the UK visa free travel

I'm also surprised that Cambridge, Bristol and Dundee appear to be absent.

If you wonder what is driving the Tories, what could possibly justify risking the electoral risk,
the Brexit agenda is:

+to protect the super wealthy from impending EU tax haven legislation

• to make a bonfire of UK rights and protections, so vulture capitalists can gain more profit at the expense of weakest and customers

• to free up US corporations to take over the major part of UK food and healthcare sectors - huge profit there.

The reason the govt looks so inept at getting the best deal for the UK may be because that is not their main goal at all.

iirc Richard North has been referring to a total of only £4-5 million annually into various orgs being all it took to take over the right wing of the Tory party - cheap at the price when one considers the potential billions to be gained.

North's article about Legatum & "disaster capitalism" goes into some of the opportunities for profi by the super wealthy:

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86556

"In this, the Legatum Institute seems to be paving the way for its "parent undertakings", engineering a "disruptive transition" for Brexit, then to reap the profits from chaos.
Its task is assisted by useful fools and fellow travellers on the Tory right.

What we have often characterised as incompetence, therefore, may be more sinister.
There is money to be made out of a hard Brexit."