Westministenders: Transition

[RedToothBrush]

Last thread opener, it was all about the government buzz word being shown to listen at every opportunity.

Now transition is creeping in as people realise that no we can't just do a settlement, arrange a new trade deal with the EU and have a whole host of other deals in place in two years.

Who'd have thought.

We will be getting Brexit because we give in to threats of terrorism. Not quite getting how that takes back control.

But Brexit will be good. It will be glorious. And in the long term we will be better off for it.

Er ok.

The Blair article is here: institute.global/news/brexit-and-centre

I didn't read it carefully, but I didn't notice any solutions.

Someone is speaking up for staying in the EU

I'm sure I heard a Labour MP on radio 4 yesterday talking about remaining in the EU. His point was the electorate are coming round to wanting to Remain in the EU. Once that happens Labour will follow them.
We need more and more people talking about the possibility of remaining.

I was just about to come and say it was worth a listen CBW. Definitely not one of Blair's biggest fans (some famous British understatement there), but he was very good on brexit in this interview. A refreshingly strong defense of staying in the EU.

I am quietly ignoring his sidestepping of the chilcot report questions and the knots he tied himself in trying to avoid suggesting anyone voted for Corbyn for his policies rather than his apparently magnetic personality. You would think Corbyn was the blooming pied piper, luring young people into Marxism with his magic flute.

Just listened to an extract of Blair's comments on the R2 news: saying that the other EU countries might be willing to look again at limiting FoM, in particular benefits and coming without a job.

How about we consider actually using the limits we already have - like the fact that it is FoM to work (or for family members) and that we already have the right to send people back who haven't found jobs?

www.politico.eu/article/pis-polands-point-of-no-return/
Poland’s point of no return
The coming purge of the judiciary will remove the last check on the illiberal government.

Wtf

Expect Verhofstadt to spout off about. Poland were at risk of being voted against by the EU and somehow suspended. If they do get this law through things could happen.

Re child care. I don't work because my son doesn't qualify for child care. If I was working it would cost more than I would earn. He won't qualify for anything until he is 2 years 4 months old because of when his birthday falls. He won't start school until after he is 5. I've had lots of people comment on how bad this is. Personally I don't have an issue with it, because it doesn't really make much difference to our circumstances as think it better for DS in the long run but it obviously would to others. Plus we can afford a couple of mornings a week for him for a term starting next month which he is now in desperate need of. (As am I for my sanity!)

In fairness I probably won't go back to work after he does qualify for a few reasons DH's job very stressful / serious and he's got loads of other commitments going on so isnt around to support me with DS outside work hours. DS will only get 16 hours free. I live 20 mins from nearest town. By the time you've dropped off your child and got to work thats nothing.

I'm in something of a fortunate position but at the same time I can see why many single mums struggle or don't want to go back to work. It's not simply about free child care. It's about the amount of it and the support that goes with it from your employer and how flexible the nursery is and the transport infrastructure nearby. I live near a notorious traffic black spot. Going back to work full time would be difficult purely from the point of view that a 20 mins journey home too often becomes an hour.

The trouble is that although all the main parties have talked about more free hours, nurseries can't do this as they are surviving by subsidising free child care places from extra income from none subsidised care. They will literally go out of business if there was universal free child care places for 35 hours a week. Not one of the main political parties has even really acknowledged this.

Jeremy couldn't tell you his sums for how much it would cost, but that didn't go far enough even if he had, as there is a gap between free child care and running a child care business. Many nurseries have expressed concerns over even small increases to free child care places. It could even put kids at risk if nurseries take too many kids for the number of staff or have to cut back on other things without some acknowledgement of these problems.

To go to full time it would have to effectively represent nationalising nurseries and putting large numbers of nursery companies out of business or support and pay for the additional cost of privatised education through the state.

red on a mumsnet thread about 30 hours funding, someone said that an ofsted acquaintance thought that the funding gap's purpose was to force nursery education to be subsumed within schools as this would ultimately be more cost effective, but as there would be a lot of pushback on this, forcing private businesses to subsidise the funding was a stealthy way of achieving it.

Anna Soubry MP @Anna_Soubry
Growing consensus for Norwegian type "safe harbour" as Leave leader Frank Field calls it, transitional arrangement as we Brexit

I agree with some of that Red. I took part in a consultation about increasing the free childcare provision, and specifically about being able to use it flexibly (i.e. With nurseries, childminders etc). I noted that this only makes sense if the provision is denominated in pounds rather than hours, as one can guarantee that the rate offered by the state to childminders for example would be lower than the market rate, which in turn would either mean them going out of business or simply refusing to accept the state rate.

I'm less defeatist than you though. The answer is simple. We already have a voucher scheme that can be used for approved childcare services. So just credit this by a fixed amount each month and let the parents decide how they want to use it. If they go for gold-plated super deluxe childcare then maybe they only get an hour a month.

Pain - many schools (in London) barely have space for the mandatory classes they run now, they won't be able to find space for a nursery school too.

It's been a while since my children were in nursery but I was included in a mailing for a new one opening close to me a few days ago and was left feeling quite shaky: it will only run a 4.5 day week and to attend every day will cost £396 per child per week

In other matters, it seems the consensus is slowly moving around to the idea that if your goal is to halt Brexit, you need to demonstrate that this is a majority view. I suppose that some of what Blair says makes sense, in that someone should be trying to lead this change in opinion. But I find that view hard to stomach coming from someone who moved his party to a position that made it attractive to swing voters in Nuneaton rather than leading a change in opinion among them towards a leftwing agenda.

There is a bit of a chicken and egg problem here... I'm sure Labour would be happy to jump on a populist anti-Brexit bandwagon, but getting that kickstarted might be a vote loser (see LibDems). So it's not clear how to get it started. It's quite easy to see 'we need more leadership' when you have nothing to lose.

Universal free childcare is a wealth transfer from the poor to the rich. The TC / UC system already provides up to 85% subsidy for those who qualify. Increasing this to 100% would be much more equitable than making it free for double earner families on joint salaries of up to £200k.

The real issue at the moment is Government policy systematically cutting away support for those raising families (and failing to invest in the education system).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40616645

Problem with Blair's "Remain and Reform agenda". DC renegotiation proved this to be a pipe dream for many. The many many pronouncements from Merkel, Barnier and co on the indivisibility of the 4 freedoms since then have reinforced this impression. Macron talking about further integration is going in the opposite direction.

There is a big difference between transitional and permanent EFTA. Many of the claims about how much sovereignty UK would retain under EFTA have been disputed by Remainers claiming it gives almost all the same restrictions with little or no say. Also, the UK economy is of a different scale to that of existing EFTA members and so any arrangement is unlikely to be a cut and paste.

When I went back to work in London, in the City, in 1997 after a 5 year career break as a SAHM to a very well paid job, after the cost of childcare, travel and suits (at M&S trouser suit cost) I made exactly nothing. And I ran myself ragged trying to juggle a commute with childcare. I still see the parents running from the station to the day Nursery and think The same applies to all my peers, whatever childcare option they chose. We all went back to preserve our career options for the future. Within ten years of having children none of my female peers, many of whom had reached senior management /partner level, smashing glass ceilings in the process, was still working full time within companies / organisations. We had all found more flexible ways of working. It just shows the levels of delusion in the Tory party that they think any single parent in London, even the ones with well paid careers, can afford to work even with subsidised childcare.

lala yes, I'm not quite sure how the logistics of would work and it is third hand info but it does start to feel like there's something else going on when the sector have been so vocal about the effects of funding. We've had countless consultations, questionnaires, participated in several council working groups, raised concerns with the local authority (who are very sympathetic but unable to do anything) but nothing changes except to get worse, the one exception being that they did drop the plans to increase the ratios so that each adult would be able to look after more children.

But perhaps suspecting there's a bigger plan is crediting the government with too much. They've not inspired confidence in much else so it could be down to incompetence and short sightedness.

Just listened to an extract of Blair's comments on the R2 news: saying that the other EU countries might be willing to look again at limiting FoM, in particular benefits and coming without a job.
There is a very good reason why he thinks this. The first, about benefits is largely achievable in house. The eu themselves have told us on multiple occasions that it's up to us to limit the benefits eu citizens aren't entitled to but we don't. The second is opt outs we've been offered before in one way or another, but someone - Blair included - always turned em down on our behalf.

Just listened to an extract of Blair's comments on the R2 news: saying that the other EU countries might be willing to look again at limiting FoM, in particular benefits and coming without a job.
There is a very good reason why he thinks this. The first, about benefits is largely achievable in house. The eu themselves have told us on multiple occasions that it's up to us to limit the benefits eu citizens aren't entitled to but we don't. The second is opt outs we've been offered before in one way or another, but someone - Blair included - always turned em down on our behalf.

I know: and what is annoying is that journalists at least those that claim to be journalists but don't seem to do any journalism beyond regurgitating press releases never pull him (and others) up on this and ask him why we never bothered to make use of the constraints WE ALREADY HAVE and others we could have had but were turned down

www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-has-spy-proof-brexit-briefcase-report/
David Davis and the spy proof briefcase.

DD's problem (or one of them) isn't cyber-spies but his own leak-y colleagues and civil servants.

He's desperate to hide the fact that his briefcase is empty

Yes! I bet he just has a cheese and pickle sandwich in there and an orange Club biscuit .

I was going to say that divided

Well, I am at my first Corbyn rally thingy. I was meh about it but dh wanted to go. I must say it is a nice atmosphere, lots of families and young folk. Very jolly.

And a copy of Negotiating for Dummies lala

I once travelled home with the Beano in my briefcase much to the amusement of Heathrow security. I have DD down as a marmalade sandwich man.