Leavers - are you happy with the way Brexit is going?

[NameChangerGalore]

Do you think it is being well organised and managed and do you think you will get will the outcome you were hoping for when you voted to leave. I only know three leavers; one thinks it is going ok, one thinks it is a complete load of bollocks and that she was lied to and I don't know what the third thinks as he is a racist tosser and I try and avoid him......

Didn't you hear Australia saying hurry up we want to do a deal,

Oh maybe we can sell the Fish to the UK instead of importing it back here, oh that might be an idea.

Lets do that pay for what you produce on the land, instead of handing most to the big farms... we can pay the smaller ones to grown thing.. what a shock.

We already have to do FORMS to go to the USA , and that doesn't stop people going to Disneyland... oh maybe that works.

Price HAVE gone up since we were in EU, it's called inflation, after all thing cost more than 40 years ago, and wages have gone up in 40 years as well. think you might call this one a fact of life.

NI joined becasue we did, just wait till they get the Bill for still being in the EU, you do know they are another country that pays in more than they get out... there seem to be a few of these, who will be getting a bill, think France might not like the fact their farmers are going to get less money. oh hang on France are still IN the EU .

NI joined because NI is part of the UK. Funnily enough, despite a year having passed, we are still in the EU.

Bearbehind

Firstly while I find it interesting you gloss over the dire EU economic record (ex Germany) over the past decade and the negative ‘forecast’ by EU chief Juncker on their future, trying to put words in my mouth with 'they need us more than we need them' with the link in front of you, IS truly astounding.

Let me factually try again on both the key reasons why the ‘Remainer’ (especially MPs) should get behind the UK government (rather than the EU Negotiators), and why the EU negotiators should show mutual respect to our own trade position, and that of the EU businesses they are supposed to be representing – rather than trying to punish the UK.

“Hard Brexit would cost EU £8bn more than Britain every year”

“EU companies would have to pay £13 billion year in tariffs compared to £5 billion for British firms, says thinktank”

So apart from confirming a ‘Soft’ Brexit was never on the EU table, unless you have different data showing that the UK exports more to the UK than we do to them, I’ll take it that you now get that as it is in the EUs own interests to have tariff free trade with the UK, the EU sticking to their OWN EU Single market rules to enforce internal discipline, when a member actually leaves, is commercially just plain DUMB, but explains (what is now a political project) the EUs priorities.

That issue was not lost on the EUs Trade Commissioner, and so as likely to be a negotiating ploy by the EU, I reiterate at earlier point, Westminster MPs etc should get BEHIND the UK government, not EU negotiators.

“EU trade commissioner says (EU) bloc will do post-Brexit free trade deal with UK 'for sure'

Theasaurass, dont forget the UKs VAT contribution making up 16% of the EUs VAT revenue stream. (Not that I think we will do away with it, but we have the option.) Whilst no where near the tariff deficit the EU will have to cover, its still significant and still going the wrong way.........as are all other 'calculations'. The inconvenient truths just wont be accepted by the pro-eu histrionics.

Caroline

It’s kinda understandable as all EU politicians have glossed over the problems of this ‘collective’ since this clearly unworkable ‘one currency and interest rate fits all’ economic experiment (including the job killing Social Chapter) - covering such diverse economies like industrial Germany, the deckchair, and emerging economies, called the Eurozone, was formed.

Instead talk about the ‘potential’, no more wars, size matters, and the d-i-r-e consequences of being left out a political behemoth that governs by a 28 nation watered down consensus.

Here is another reason to want to be out.

“EU project 'alive and kicking'; Brexit has inspired non-members to join, says IMF's Lagarde”

Good, let the Eurozone both panicking as losing the UKs annual net £contribution and struggling to create their own jobs, both subsidize and find jobs for the likes of Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro (amongst others) waiting in the wings to join.

Absolutely Thea, Ive said before a collective 'buying' group is one thing, completely another when every member needs to 'sell'.

How do you see the 3 Seas Initiative going Thea?

Apart from the obvious eastern bloc nationalism, refusal to toe the line on refugee relocation, and a common view that the EU must be a union to protect a white and christian heritage against muslim invaders, (Slovakias President and current EU Council President Fico, stating "Islam has no place in Slovakia", Orban in Hungary, is keeping out the "poison", and Polands Szydlo wishes to "keep Poland Polish", all backed unanimously by their populations) their collective dominance in getting the EU to submit is striking.

Will the EU continue to bend to the eastern bloc demands, certainly as the 3 seas initiative gathers pace and support internationally, or will they finally start to consider expulsion? Surely theres only 2 ways this can go?

Oh goodness - thought my little thread had run out of steam. Thank goodness for Caroline, who clearly/deliberately misunderstood my post and has come out all guns blazing. I referenced the 3 brexiteers I know to indicate that I don't know many, not to make any greater point. While I, as a "foreigner", can be fairly ambivalent about it all, I am continually struck by the portrayal I am reading about in a wide range of media (the Times, Guardian, Spectator, Economist).
I just don't understand how the sabre-rattling talk of the likes of May, Johnson et al serves any purpose.
No, my post was not goady - just interested. Please don't be such an angry little beanie - the sun is shining after all. 🌞🌞🌞

EU companies would have to pay £13 billion year in tariffs compared to £5 billion for British firms

Is that really your best analysis of this situation? An article from October 2016?

The £13bn (even if true) will be split across 27 countries (albeit unevenly) whereas we will need to suck up the £5bn in its entirety?

Where is the logic in that argument?

Bearbehind...

You get the VALUE in cash terms gist, so feel free to show updated figures showing that the sales from the EU to UK difference has narrowed.

As per the logic in my argument that there is a mutual benefit to free trade, as they say 'here was one I prepared earlier';

In cash terms it is a fact, but unfortunately the unelected farts in Brussels don’t seem to care that the UK with 4.5% unemployment mainly trades with the Eurozone countries, like France with around 9.6% unemployment. Italy 12% and Spain 18.4% - and even in countries like Germany with 3.9% unemployment, their businesses do not want Brussels to play games – as they don’t want those unemployment levels to RISE further, especially as the UK will no longer be a social safety valve of employment for bright young things, the Eurozone is currently letting down. IMO

“EU referendum: Trade curbs 'foolish' if UK votes Leave, says German industry”

You get the VALUE in cash terms gist

No I really don't get it so please explain how £13bn divided by 27 countries is worse than £5bn for 1 country?

Brexit is an almighty fuck up for all concerned.

EU business will undoubtedly be worse off than if we'd remained but UK businesses, and citizens in general, will be hit proportionally harder.

Your statistic proves that so, for the life of me, I do not follow your logic.

Carloline

To be honest I hadn’t looked to closely at what Trump was up to, or even had heard of the ‘3 Seas Initiative’ with regard to mutual cooperation, including energy; I was just aware how insecure those countries felt with their aggressive neighbour, and saw the reports of Trumps reception.

But wow, what at internal EU powder keg, as those Eastern European states have strong views that even a bit of smoozing from say Germany or Brussels, won’t change their minds/ways, which will go down (technically speaking) in Brussels, like a cup of cold sick.

Clearly as far as energy is concerned, by now the U.S. is self sufficient in oil and gas, so looking for markets, and what better market than those who woke up to Russia’s dominance of the European energy market when Ukraine had their taps turned off – with the proven reserves gas dominance of friends Russia and Iran, another global problem of the future – especially if Middle East terror sponsorship disunity drives Qatar (market share) into the arms of Russia.

I'm also loving the fact your last link (June 2016) dates back even further than the previous one (October 2016)

Have you really not cottoned on to the fact that the EU have pulled together over Brexit and aren't going to let their bloc fail, even if it is detrimental to them in the short term?

Even German car manufacturers agree that protecting the 4 freedoms is more important than sending us their cars.

Is your continued optimised based upon anything less than 9 months old?

Bearbehind

Re your "No I really don't get it so please explain how £13bn divided by 27 countries is worse than £5bn for 1 country?"

As a clue, once you work out that Brussels is negotiating on behalf of all 27 countries, and with tariff trade the UK will have a honking great surplus with the EU - not caring a flying how that is divided up, if that is what Brussels wants - it becomes clearer.

Or is your difficulty a common mistake by Remainers, that there is an either/or situation, that on Brexit, there will be either no trade, or a similar trade situation to now - and with the former the UK will be scrapping around trying to trade only outside the EU?

How quaint.

International Trade is between companies, not nations, who do so far too often DESPITE of over baring or fat governance, not THANKS to it.

theasarass, being patronising with your 'how quaint' comments really doesn't distract from the fact your maths is way off.

The EU are prepared to suck up the cost of us leaving because it will cost us more than them.

Please explain how we are the winners here.

Britain will cover cost of billions in EU subsidies for farming, science and deprived areas after Brexit, Chancellor announces”

Link is from the Torygraph. Lets hope May keeps growing those magic money trees. If the tories can't be arsed to give public sector workers a pay rise, they'll do sod all for deprived areas.

”Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher”

A news article from 7 years ago. Austerity has failed, the British people know this hence May's election disappointment.

I work in an industry that employs a number of black people and guess what? When they come into contact with people from the eastern block that's where they get the most racist comments !
Don't get me wrong the Poles etc do work hard, but they do a lot of jobs that our unemployed could do, but won't, so we need to make a hard choice if you won't take a low paid job (which will be supported with tax credit's etc. not a zero hours job) you will have to be starved in to work.

Bearbehind

Re "Have you really not cottoned on to the fact that the EU have pulled together over Brexit and aren't going to let their bloc fail, even if it is detrimental to them in the short term?"

Of course I've worked out that the EU members are currently pulling together, as Brussels is telling them to, and will be doing that right up to the time when member states lose the power of veto (and the rest of their gonads) to Brussels.

The premise that the whole EU single market and their precious but inflexible 'Four Freedoms' will fall apart in mainland Europe if they give a current member that they sell more to in value terms, and would gladly increase EU unemployment, just confirms what an excuse for prosperity and a common market model, the EU actually is.

This head-up-own-bum-mentality is exactly WHY a 'no deal, might be better than the one on offer', and the UK have the right to walk away, and let EU companies take up the tariff issue with their own member states and Brussels, as UK companies take it up with our government - as we slash Corporate Taxes to compensate for extra costs they incur, and then see if the EU wants to come back to the table..

NameChangerGalore

Re your "I just don't understand how the sabre-rattling talk of the likes of May, Johnson et al serves any purpose".

What you think it has been one way, or don't you think goading and interference in our affairs/politics by the numerous EU chiefs, member country leaders, their finance etc ministers, don't count?

Here are just a few comments by that nice Mr Verhofstadt - on top of his most recent anti UK wobbler, that he will instruct the EU parliament to stop any final UK-EU deal - unless they get their way on EU worker rights in the UK, what a pants big picture negotiator he is.

“EU negotiator Verhofstadt mocks Brexit Secretary David Davis over Conservatives' shock by-election defeat in Richmond”

“Tim Farron (meeting Verhofstadt in Brussels) says Article 50 can be revoked”

“EU negotiator Verhofstadt says Brexit is 'a Tory catfight that got out of hand' and predicts next generation will return to bloc - as MEPs approve 'red lines'”

“Britain could stay in EU, but only on poorer terms” – Verhofstadt

P.S. Having EU citizens voting in UK general elections, has nothing to do with the third quote above, also declaring no one in the UK was inconvenienced by open door EU migration - it was all a Tory spat.

What a joke(r).

The UK is woefully slow in responding to the papers the EU has tabled and David Davis is smirking about it in Parliament today. He has tabled one on citizenship. One. The nuclear agreement is going to end and even the airlines need an agreement. Leaving is Way Bigger than anyone dreamed before 8 June last year. People had no idea of the complexity and just warning of economic problems was the tip of the iceberg! We won't even be able to remove radio active waste from hospitals if we are not careful. All those experts Gove said were not needed will be needed now! Dealing with his toxic mess.

GhostofFrankGrimes

The Tories GROW the tax providing Private Sector, as opposed under Labour (who lost 2 million manufacturing jobs in 13-years) that grows the 100% tax costed State instead – so as a country finance ‘model’, which party has to rely on a money tree/borrowing EVERY TIME in power – which is why I can’t remember a decade in the last century when Labour left the UK is better financial health and more jobs, than when they came in.

Re so cynical you believe the EU can spend the UK’s net contribution to other EU states, in the UK, better than the UK government can, I reiterate in Labour’s case it goes on the fat State – as in their last 13-years where DID all that money go, on new homes, power stations, big infrastructure programmes, it beats me – which leaves an unsustainable fat state. So it’s the Tories turn now, and the money has a chance of GETTING to projects other than an overly fat State.

How has ‘Tory austerity failed’, when Labour was happy to overspend by £167 billion plus a YEAR from 2010 (so god knows where the national debt would have been by now) helped by ever higher taxes to businesses already struggling from the recession, and citizens who saw real earnings fall from 2008 had tax CUTS not more increases – what an alternative on the Road to Greece then, what an alternative now, to a UK with £7.2 trillion of National Debt, plus unfunded State and Government employee pension schemes???

Wots the problem with another £trillion, so McDonnell can implement his Venezuelan style big state controls, right?

AS the UK is ‘only’ currently paying around £46 billion a year in interest to international investors FUNDING our National Debt, coming out of annual government spending that could go to education or the NHS – just think what it would have been under Labour from 2010, or will be under Labour with ‘that’ manifesto.

On tariffs, should we end up trading with EU members on WTO terms like we do with most of the rest of the non-EU world already, the pain for the EU would hit Germany hardest, then Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and France, then Poland and Italy a bit. Of the remaining countries, 6 we sell more to than we buy from and so would be unaffected and the remainder are inconsequential. Bear in mind that WTO tariffs do not hit all goods equally, with Germany particularly exposed for this reason.

When we leave, we no more intend to be party to the EU's '4 freedoms' than any other non-member - USA, China, Japan, India etc., nor beholden to the ECJ. They can be as indivisible as they like, we don't need them and we're not interested.

And I wish remainers would get over the money thing. Brexit is primarily about regaining sovereignty, about the UK becoming a self-governing democracy in control of its own borders again, rather than increasingly beholden to unelected foreigners in Brussels who treat our Parliament like a rubber stamp for their mandate-free policies. You may be happy to see the UK swallowed up in an anti-democratic federal superstate controlled by Germany but more of us aren't.

BubblesBuddy

Re "The UK is woefully slow in responding to the papers the EU has tabled and David Davis is smirking about it in Parliament today."

The problem with dealing with the EU, who set the agenda order in stone, is whether to stall or pathetic, they want to micro manage and disagree with everything the UK suggests - and even if the EU negotiators agree on an issue - we have heard the ECJ, the MEP parliament, member states, regions (like the one that halted the Canada deal), ALL have the power to agree it, or more likely knowing how pathetic they are, veto it.

Surely better if the EU with rules and regulations up to their yazoo puts forward a UK leaving package, and let the UK parliament vote on it, as trying to please that huge dollop of bureaucrat gloop called the EU, is frankly a near impossibility.

Bear, you have to get to grips with the whole picture. Ill try to explain. (Its a long post but Ill try to lay it out so its easy to read)

This is the sort of information, the BBC will do everything to avoid telling you.

Lets start with personal wealth. A UK citizen has the 3rd highest personal wealth value in the EU. Whilst its commonly known, its not commonly promoted. Heres an article from Geneva, (as strangely our media doesnt promote this sort of 'news')

http://lenews.ch/2016/09/22/swiss-still-the-worlds-wealthiest-says-report/

and the data this article was collated from is here. (Page 121 onwards) and is used amongst others as a world wide reputable data collection exercises for investment purposes etc.

https://www.allianz.com/v1474281539000/media/economicc_research/publications/specials/en/AGWR2016e.pdf

Just to be absolutely clear, these are calculations on average personal wealth per citizen in each nation, not a national GDP per capita figure (though that is shown on one of the charts).

So the average UK citizen is worth 132K. Sticking with the EU, we are only beaten by the Swiss and the Danes.

To then compare other key EU nations;
German Citizen is worth 67k
French 75k
However, note an Italian is worth 68k , higher than the Germans despite the national crisis.

Then you start dropping off;
A Greek is worth 21k
A Czech 18k
Hungarian 13k
Slovaks and Poles 10k
Then dropping to
Romania 5k

With me so far?

You then look at the EU population in numbers.

There are 510 million people living in the EU. Of that 510 million, 65 million are UK citizens. Of the 2 EU nations that beat us in personal wealth, there are 8 million Swiss, and 5 million Danes.
Coming down the personal wealth rankings, Poland for example have a population of 38million.
Whilst we account for only 13% of the total population of the EU, we have the largest personal wealth of 8.5 trillion of any EU nation by a long chalk.

Ill break it down for you using the same example nations above, the gross personal wealth for each nation is as follows;
UK 8.5 trillion
Swiss 2 trillion
Danes 0.72 trillion
Germans 5.4 trillion
French 4.9 trillion
Italians 4 trillion
Greeks 0.2 trillion
Czechs 0.18 trillion
Hungarians 0.1 trillion
Poles 0.38 trillion
Romanians 0.1 trillion

These are the markets youre selling into. In terms of personal wealth, and then 'buying' ability, UK citizens can buy 4 times as much 'stuff' as the Swiss. UK citizens can 'buy' 60% more than the Germans.

We have the largest 'buying' capacity in the EU. By a significant margin. Whilst the world sits back and listens to Merkel and Germany strutting their stuff, remember the above figures and realise that by losing the UK, it is the equivalent of the EU losing France, Spain, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Romania, Czech Republic, Latvia, Croatia, Lithuania.

Think about that for a moment.