Westministenders: The bookends to a year of political chaos. Just how far have we come?

[RedToothBrush]

The 15th June 2016.

The Thames was filled with a flotilla of boats in a publicity stunt for the Leave campaign to draw attention to fisheries. Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey in their heads thought they were Leonardo and Kate, but the moment was rather more titanic in nature and could not have been more Alan Partridge if they had tried. Coming up behind was Bob Gedolf in a shameful and cringeworthy display of swearing and abuse that really didn’t help the Remain camp in anyway. Largely unnoticed was a small boat with a family following it all unfold…

The next day things went from fiasco to horror.

Farage unveiled the Dog Whistle Poster and Jo Cox was murdered. And the UK seemed set on its course for 7 days later when the world was turned upside down by the referendum itself.

14th June 2017.

Fast forward 365 days later and another tragedy unfolded. This time of a very different nature but with no less political significance.
Grenfell.

A moment of national shame. A symbol of so many things that had come to pass in the previous twelve months.

The election just the previous week had changed the direction of travel we seemed to be headed and left the Prime Minister exposed and looking wildly out of touch. The Maybot was given one more chance.

And the Maybot seems to be failing the test of her party who had the grace to grant her a second chance.

The Queen dressed in the same shade of blue, May delivered her ‘victory speech’ in, ignored the security threat and visited the ranks of the poor and the forgotten. A deliberate message to May not to forget who she serves? A Queen who feels aggrieved and angry by May’s behaviour? Who knows.

As for Brexit. The government looks lost. Adrift. The ‘Fight of the Summer’ over the EU’s plan for talks sounds out the window despite the denials from the Brexit Department. Hard Brexit is still on the cards. Apparently. But what does anyone believe now? May’s and the Brexiteers domination of the agenda is shattered, its power starting to be questioned.

What next?

This evening the anger is building.

Who knows, what will happen. Some of it might be predictable, but the future is far from certain and we have definitely entered a new era. We just don’t know who will lead it, or what its ambition or what the end goal now is.

What we do know, more acutely than ever is that we are all human and the wise words of Jo Cox about having ‘More in Common’ ring though ever more strongly.

Once again we feel ‘on the brink’.

Guardian, 6.42am

Protest postponed

The Grenfell Action Group and Radical Housing Network have postponed a protest planned to take place today at Kensington & Chelsea Town Hall. The event, which called on estate campaigners, community groups and tenants from across London to demand Justice4Grenfell, was due to take place at midday.

The Radical Housing Network said on Facebook it had been cancelled “in light of the rapidly moving situation and community protests at the Town Hall and Grenfell Tower on evening of Friday 17th” but promised “more actions and protests”.

There's no doubting how seriously the Queen takes her public service role. Her statement is spot on for the public mood.

Steve Bullock @GuitarMoog

A rambling, disorganised thread on negotiations with the EU and why May’s “bloody difficult woman” approach is so wrong. 1/
This is from direct experience as 1st/2nd Sec Development in UKREP negotiating for the UK in EU Council working groups. 2
And from working in the Commission’s External Relations DG (Now the External Action Service) 3/
Being ‘tough’ can work, but only if it is used properly and deployed sparingly at strategic points in negs. 4/
Being difficult never works. It breaks trust, & creates resentment, & a justifiable unwillingness to compromise in your opposite numbers 5/
Negotiation is not, contrary to popular belief, about barging in, thumping the table and demanding you get everything you want. 6/
It’s also not about undermining your opposite numbers, or insulting their intelligence by making outlandish and untrue claims. 7/
The first key to a successful neg is trust. Both sides must know that the other is negotiating in good faith, & want a reasonable outcome 8/
Both sides know that walking away is an option in extremis, but openly threatening to undermines the trust that a solution is being sought9/
Compromises and concessions can only be given on the basis of this trust and good faith 10/
Second key is understanding the process and your opposite numbers’ properly. The process, in this case, is fixed by one side. 11/
That is the process that UK signed up to when they signed the treaties. Fighting it is counter-productive. Understand and use it. 12/
Understanding your opposite numbers (oppos) is essential. They also have constraints & expectations placed on them by their stakeholders13/
Understanding this and their position allows you to identify solutions that satisfy their concerns and meet your objectives. 14/
If you have put yourself in the position that your line is fundamentally incompatible with that of your Oppos, you have already lost. 15/
But their opposition may, for example, be about the way in which something is done, not the thing itself. 16/
Is it the wording, but not the meaning that is a problem? Suggest alternative wording. be constructive 17/
If it is the mechanism, be flexible on the outcome. Is it for optics? Could something else replace it? 18/
Only be tough or angry when you judge it will actually bring about the outcome you want. Shows of strength for their own sake don’t work 19/
This leads to a third key point. Flexibility must be built into your position from the start. You cannot get everything. 20/
Everything cannot be a red line that you’ll die in a ditch for, or you may as well go home before you start. 21/
Don’t deploy red lines casually or widely. Oppos respect genuine red lines - they have them too, 22/
But claiming everything is a red line will make them disregard the real ones. 23/
Your position should be clear and prioritised. Everything that is not a red line should have a fall-back position built in. 24/
This means you have to manage expectations at home. Everyone wants their priority to be your No1, but they can’t all be. 25/
You should also have a rather complex web of what can be traded-off for each of the biggest priorities 26/
The pre-negotations have already been a disaster, with UK govt first trying to divide the EU27 27/
And then, when that didn’t work out, deliberately breeding resentment and mistrust 28/
One of the complaints about the EU as a negotiator with 3rd countries is that it is too inflexible 29/
Everything has to be agreed at council, and negotiating mandates cannot be changed on the fly 30/
UK knows this though, so pretending the EU27 side was posturing over sequencing, citizens’ rights etc was absurd 31/
And made UK look like it was not a serious negotiator 32/
And then the ill-fated No Deal Better than Bad Deal rhetoric, which has had a disastrous effect 33/
EU27 does not want UK to walk away - it will cost them - but they will deal with it if needs be. The EU itself is more important to it 34/
And it would cost UK an order of magnitude more than EU27, & both sides know this very well 35/
So this line was effectively bringing a knife to a gun fight. It served only to reduce trust 36/
& again make UK look like it was not a serious, constructive negotiator looking for a mutually beneficial outcome 37/
Throughout UK govt. has acted as if EU27 do not have access to UK news, playing solely to domestic opinion 38/
EU27 know that UK has backed itself into a corner on the exit bill, ECJ, FoM etc. 39/
They know that this govt will find it impossible to go back with a big bill (>£30bn?) or accept FoM or ECJ jurisdiction over anything 40/
Ruling this out publicly, instead of explaining and managing expectations at home, again weakens UK 41/
It gives credence, again, to the view that UK is planning to walk out, but, even worse 42/
It shows UK govt to be either willing to lie to their people or themselves ignorant of the realities. 43/
In conclusion, whatever the preparation that the civil service has been doing behind the scenes, UK has approached this appallingly 44/
Its naive attempts to show strength have served to undermine their case and strengthen EU27’s resolve 45/
Its open, unapologetic lying to the UK public about what they will get has reduced EU27’s respect for them 46/
Its posturing and threats have sown mistrust and undermined them as a serious negotiator looking for a real outcome. 47/
And they have backed themselves into corners with unforced errors on ECJ, the exit bill and FoM. 48/
Finally, it really helps to be right in negotiations. To have the arguments, facts and moral high ground on your side. 49/
UK showed again and again, but especially in its treatment of EU27 citizens, that it has none of these 50/
The threat to bargain over security cooperation, terrorism & the life & death of citizens, was a moment of appalling moral weakness. 51/
So, IMHO, the chances of this govt getting any deal, let alone a good one, in only 21 mths, are minimal. 52/
But I think they know this. The level of complexity is too much, the preparations too poor, the messaging self-defeating 53/
So I think the plan remains to walk out of negotiations, which will, of course, be a catastrophe for the UK. 54/
And all for want of a little humility, trust, honesty, organisation & understanding. But they just couldn’t help themselves, could they? END

'What would the Queen do?' should have been May's guide.

Pain a pp yesterday asked "Who would you have negotiate Brexit?".

The BBC reporter who interviewed protestors on the steps of RBKC Town Hall yesterday afternoon. Based on his performance and the criteria in the twitter list you've just posted.

I'd have far more faith in him than the Conservative & Unionist Negotiating Team.

I want to put a bet on Brexit not happening , but am struggling with how to word it when I wander in to the bookies , curious to see what odds they will give me .

Yes bore it was me who said I had a strange feeling that Brexit would never happen.

Unfortunately the attempt to achieve it will destroy the country.

It'll take years for the anger this is creating with the Tories to go away.

But this kind of situation creates almost impossible expectations of the Govt. that takes over after.

I remember the excitement we felt in 1997 after 18 years of Tory rule. Then a few months later I paused for thought when David Blunkett started a policy of 'naming and shaming' failing schools (which made it harder for them to recover) and I thought... that sounds a bit Tory.

But I suppose anything will be better than the current corrupt, unfeeling administration. I will just manage my expectations.

"The level of complexity is too much, the preparations too poor, the messaging self-defeating. So I think the plan remains to walk out of negotiations, which will, of course, be a catastrophe for the UK."

Shameless.

Continued thanks Red for these threads -my most reliable way of catching up.
Like many I'd been having the feeling that relinquishing our membership won't happen. ( I try and minimise using the B word as it makes it into more of a thing.) However I only just clicked that in the last 11 months the Trade Department has hired more than 3,000 people globally. The most recent appointment is NZ trade negotiator Crawford Falconer, in place by late summer.The telegraph seem to think it's a fantastic appointment, but although he worked for the OECD he appears to have been in academia for 25 years most recently at Lincoln University.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-16/may-names-crawford-falconer-as-u-k-chief-trade-talks-adviserr_.

The current government have essentially committed themselves to "no deal", so there's no negotiating with them really.

Uk: give us everything we want with none of the onerous bits, throw in a unicorn and make us the guest of honour or we're not coming to the party at all. In fact, we want to win every game of pass the parcel or we won't even show up and we all know how much your party will suck if we're not there.
EU: we'd love you to attend the party but you can't be guest of honour and you'll have to chip in for some of the food and entertainment
Uk: red lines!!! We must win all the games. Also, we would like all the icing on the cake but don't want to pay for any of it. OR WE'RE NOT COMING.
Eu: no
Uk: your party sucks. We'll just sit here outside the venue and enjoy none of the things at the party. HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT SUCKERS, NOW WHO'S MISSING OUT
EU: smiles politely and carries on with the party
Uk: sits outside in the rain convinced that without us, the party couldn't possibly be going well. Feels some pangs of hunger but remembers that having no cake is better than being prevented from having what you really wanted which is all the icing

So what will happen on wed if the speech is voted down? Cant see any of the opposition agreeing to it, the GFA issue alone is enough reason to stop it. Also how can they start brexit on monday with no plan and no mandate? The arrogance is astounding.

Also want to say thanks Red for these threads, and everyone on it. Ive followed most of the political threads and this is the only one which has not decended into chaos

it was me who said I had a strange feeling that Brexit would never happen

I really hope you are right hester

I just can't understand the Torys, it's pretty bloody clear the uk doesn't want hard Brexit. Why are they being so damn stubborn with going ahead with it?

I'm just praying the EU puts an offer on the table of you can remain and everything stays the same. And they actually take them up on the offer.

I've also felt that Brexit is unlikely to happen but I'm not sure that is just hope.

Kevin Maguire @ Kevin_Maguire
Struck by the smart, articulate & passionate street + community leaders emerging after Grenfell. Inspiring people. Unlike the Prime Minister

I know I'm being simplistic but I don't understand why the govt cannot ask for brakes, a pause button on Brexit and spend a bit of time on our recent tragedies.

X3 terrorist attacks, what looks like a corporate attack on people (Grenfell), a hung parliament and theoretically no govt and a very very angry populace all in less than 6 months.

My understanding from here is we have no agreement with the DUP so Mon and Wed are a fingers crossed plan?

From the BBC

'Angry and bewildered'

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4
Posted at 8:07

Speaking to Radio 4, Reverend Mike Long has said people in the community are furious.

"People are incredibly angry, they're bewildered, they're confused, they have lots and lots of questions," he said.

"They feel they're not being listened to and what they have been saying has not been listened to, and they don't know how to be able to express those things at the moment."

Oh and I'm so proud of our people. How many protests and vigils yesterday and none of that anger spilled into civil unrest.

www.scer.scot/database/ident-2633

Reverse Brexit: Could Scotland Ignite a UK Debate?

lonelyplanet 3000 trade negotiators! That's got to be £150,000,000. (Wild estimate.)

The public need to be told, kept regularly informed, about how much this Brexit thing is all costing. Most sensible folk would say 'Is it really worth it? Couldn't we give nurses a pay rise instead, if we've got that kind of cash hanging around?'

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/16/my-council-tax-rebate-from-kensington-and-chelsea-is-blood-money
My council tax rebate from Kensington and Chelsea is blood money

In 2014, I received my Kensington and Chelsea council tax bill and a letter from the leader of the council, Nicholas Paget-Brown, explaining that all residents who pay council tax in full would “receive a one-off payment of £100”, to be deducted from the bill. This bonus, the letter continued, was due to the council’s careful management of its finances over the years, “consistently delivering greater efficiencies while improving services”

I know I'm being simplistic but I don't understand why the govt cannot ask for brakes, a pause button on Brexit and spend a bit of time on our recent tragedies.

There is a two year ticking clock we are now racing against. The EU has to allow us to extend that. Asking for that from the EU is not something the government want to be seen to be doing as they are pigheaded and arrogant. Likewise it's entirely possible we could reverse a50 by ourselves but that option is not political compatible with Tory belief and political will.

What it comes down to is the government want to look in control and keep the right of the party happy. The reality is in plowing on at this moment in time is that they are far from in control which is anything but good for Brexit negotiations.

They are working on panic station without a clue. It would be far better to go away and regroup. They won't because that would be an admission that they don't know what they are doing.

What's going on publically in Kensington is also what's going on just out of site privately at Downing Street.

We are in disaster management over Brexit, at the same time as actual disaster management. There are no contingency plans. There was no acknowledgment of the concerns of people they felt unimportant. It's being run by people out of their depth who lie. You can only hope that something changes before we hit the point where it turns into a disaster. (Brexit disaster could well be a civil emergency and riots so I do think it sadly appropriate to put together with this tragedy. The poor will be the ones to suffer)

The public need to be told, kept regularly informed, about how much this Brexit thing is all costing

This could be the way to ensure Brexit ends. That damn bus made it look like Brexit would save an absolute fortune. Which of course it won't.

We need a live cost clock that shows the rising costs of brexit as it happens. Not sure how you would work it out, but I imagine nice big, red numbers on the side of a building steadily going up and up. Possibly next to an estimated final cost, which is adjusted regularly to reflect best guess at the time.

Hester I too remember that bright May morning in 1997.

It was like Camelot - so full of hope for a bright future.

I could weep.

BBC radio 4 today @ BBCr4today
Damian Green says it is "terribly unfair" to say Theresa May is not to up to the current situation - "she is distraught... we all are."

FFS are we at 'poor little Theresa'. She has not got control of the situation and part of that comes directly from her personal handling of her personal approach and personal interaction with the public. It's inflamed an already difficult situation because she isn't able to read the public mood.

Jesus wept.

It's defense of the indefensible.

A good leader gets their hands dirty.