Westministenders: The bookends to a year of political chaos. Just how far have we come?

[RedToothBrush]

The 15th June 2016.

The Thames was filled with a flotilla of boats in a publicity stunt for the Leave campaign to draw attention to fisheries. Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey in their heads thought they were Leonardo and Kate, but the moment was rather more titanic in nature and could not have been more Alan Partridge if they had tried. Coming up behind was Bob Gedolf in a shameful and cringeworthy display of swearing and abuse that really didn’t help the Remain camp in anyway. Largely unnoticed was a small boat with a family following it all unfold…

The next day things went from fiasco to horror.

Farage unveiled the Dog Whistle Poster and Jo Cox was murdered. And the UK seemed set on its course for 7 days later when the world was turned upside down by the referendum itself.

14th June 2017.

Fast forward 365 days later and another tragedy unfolded. This time of a very different nature but with no less political significance.
Grenfell.

A moment of national shame. A symbol of so many things that had come to pass in the previous twelve months.

The election just the previous week had changed the direction of travel we seemed to be headed and left the Prime Minister exposed and looking wildly out of touch. The Maybot was given one more chance.

And the Maybot seems to be failing the test of her party who had the grace to grant her a second chance.

The Queen dressed in the same shade of blue, May delivered her ‘victory speech’ in, ignored the security threat and visited the ranks of the poor and the forgotten. A deliberate message to May not to forget who she serves? A Queen who feels aggrieved and angry by May’s behaviour? Who knows.

As for Brexit. The government looks lost. Adrift. The ‘Fight of the Summer’ over the EU’s plan for talks sounds out the window despite the denials from the Brexit Department. Hard Brexit is still on the cards. Apparently. But what does anyone believe now? May’s and the Brexiteers domination of the agenda is shattered, its power starting to be questioned.

What next?

This evening the anger is building.

Who knows, what will happen. Some of it might be predictable, but the future is far from certain and we have definitely entered a new era. We just don’t know who will lead it, or what its ambition or what the end goal now is.

What we do know, more acutely than ever is that we are all human and the wise words of Jo Cox about having ‘More in Common’ ring though ever more strongly.

Once again we feel ‘on the brink’.

Sunday Times seems to be joining in the May must go:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/when-the-queen-is-our-chief-consoler-you-know-mayslost-w05vw952g

"When the Queen is our chief consoler, you know the PM is lost"

"Shellshocked by her election failure, Mrs May looks more like someone kept hostage by her ministers for fear of political defeat than someone who still wants to lead the nation."

"Conservatives at Westminster now believe there is a credible threat of Corbyn as prime minister.
They hope he is overplaying his hand, pointing to his demand that empty luxury housing near the tower be requisitioned for the displaced.

They want to prop up May for as long as possible while wishing she could just go away.
Those who have seen her up close describe her as already nervy before the fire."

good point nancy but on the other hand lib dems came second in fewer seats than last time as well. Which may suggest that in safe con seats lab remainers did not switch to lib dem to register a remain preference. (I say may - i have to admit I haven't analysed it!).

Will be interesting to see what KS has to say about brexit today. I think the problem with an autumn election for lab is that by that time it may be obvious that EU really really really won't give in on freedom of movement. In which case the idea (which I think was being suggested last week) that UK may yet be able to have a few restrictions on fom and keep full access (or however it's put) to single market, will be dead. At which point lab will have to decide - single market or restrictions on fom?

Other rightwing sources have been joining in, trying to smear, to deflect any negative PR from the govt

The alt right and their employees should be careful of pushing their luck at times like this.

Is it just me who wonders if the actual reason we're having a two-year parliamentary session is that the Queen is so hacked off by the messing around over the date of her speech that she's refused to give one at all next year?

"They hope he is overplaying his hand, pointing to his demand that empty luxury housing near the tower be requisitioned for the displaced."

Didn't a poll find that a majority of those asked supported that idea though? At the moment public opinion is difficult to predict!

The problem for cons is that no other candidate can unite the party, isn't it? (Never mind about winning voters votes for the moment, which is also an issue of course). In which case isn't there a risk of back bench rebels voting against or abstaining (despite my view that no mp can really want an election!) Keeping TM may be the least divisive option for the con party at the moment - or the one most likely to keep them able to govern as a minority.

I think Starmer is the person with the credibility to lead on Remain. He is touting the soft Brexit/EEA message at the mo because he knows we have to explain the pros & cons of leaving properly so that people can make an informed judgement, but the mood in the country is already softening on a (hard) Brexit and I think the appetite for it will further weaken when the true costs to our economy are exposed.

I will also be watching Marr with interest this morning.

"So I think an outside observer looking in would say voters had the chance to make clear they were against brexit - and as a whole in UK they didn't"

It's very difficult to conclude that voters support or oppose an individual policy from a GE result, given that there are many policies in the manifestos, local factors, local personalities, etc. It could be that Remain voters felt very strongly that reversing cuts to public services was more important than Brexit (and therefore preferred Labour). But that doesn't mean they support Brexit, although they may be resigned to it happening. We simply don't know what voters would be willing to accept, although there is some indication of public opinion turning against Brexit from opinion polls.

woman The hard right is having success spreading hate instead of support for victims
Many rightwing online posters are aggressive and abusive about any non-Tory who even expresses grief about Grenfell.

Read the ugly racist comments below this interview with a grieving David Lammy:

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/breaks-my-heart-london-mp-david-lammy-moved-to-tears-in-grenfell-tower-interview-as-friend-feared-a3567196.html

EU not expecting the UK's 'generous opening offer' to be that generous for talks on Monday.

According to the Guardian, the EU wants all rights currently enjoyed by EU nationals in the UK, and Brits in EU, to be protected in perpetuity, as long as they arrived in their adopted homes before Britain leaves the bloc at midnight Brussels time on 29 March 2019.

UK have apparently been playing with the date because they believe there will be a rush to the UK (the evidence is that many EU nationals have been leaving).

The Mail are speculating that the Libdems are in talks with the Tories pointing to the prospect that the new Leader, likely to be Jo Swindon, will go into coalition with the Tories and DUP.

Sounds like wishful thinking to me. I think it perfectly likely that there are ongoing discussions between Centrists /Remainers on all sides, they were all part of Open Britain for instance, in search of consensus. Unfortunately there is no sign May is listening and not only would my Libdem MP have none of it but I am sure the rest have scars that will last a very long time.

That sounds like wishful thinking. I hope the lib dems don't risk it again - a coalition of chaos with the rotors and dup to deliver a Tory Brecht would utterly destroy the lib dems forever.

Ian Birrell @ianbirrell
May would be mad to press the Brexit kamikaze button - strong piece by former trade minister Jim O'Neill

[daily mail link]
t.co/0UfUOIMhXP?amp=1

I can't see why anyone would want to take over leadership of the Tory party right now, unless they only fancied being in the job for a couple of years. Perhaps that would appeal to a particular type of hard Brexiter who only cares about walking away from the EU and would be content to stand down with job done and everyone else left to pick up the pieces.

Perhaps that would appeal to a particular type of hard Brexiter who only cares about walking away from the EU and would be content to stand down with job done and everyone else left to pick up the pieces. whilst they shovel up the cash from the opportunities for the few opened up in a deregulated tax haven economy....

LibDems engage in Tory/DUP deal??? Ah yes, The Daily Mail.

Politics at the moment just seems to be scores of people sending of letters of demands but no one is actually doing anything.

K&C council - don't have a residents list, don't know how many tower blocks they have, telling those who have lost everything, in a building that failed to keep safe, they need to find a place with friends and family after 7 because that is when the shelter will close...

It does seem like party leadership now is something you do for max five years until you get kaiboshed by events, embarrassing personal habits or sheer incompetence. I'm not sure it is even possible to be competent at leadership any more.

Can someone explain the 2 year parliament to me, a thicko? Eg why, what for, implications etc?

Sorry Arlene, I don't know but I'd also be interested in the answer.

Meanwhile Pesto makes a good point: It is a system in which identifying anyone who can be proved to be ultimately responsible for what happened may be impossible.

www.itv.com/news/2017-06-16/grenfell-tower-tragedy-shames-us-all/

This is the other problem when you 'let the market decide'. Who carries the can when the market makes the wrong decision?

Of course, the Tories may decide to reject consensus and try to force through a hard Brexit,
i.e.dare Labour to block them and risk public anger, at least from the Brexit voters

Yes, Labour could block them. We heard how one time older Labour voters - the sort who had been Labour supporters since they were out of their cradles - were going to go to UKIP or now the Tories. Hence May's Presidential procession around what she thought might be marginal Labour seats of which she won none. So Labour could now call their bluff.

I strongly suspect that the vote wasn't about Brexit but anti-austerity and being left behind when the wealthy are doing nicely thankyou, as the Grenfell fire has shown. The Tories couldn't possibly acknowledge this because they have been the major architects of it.

We just now need to find a strong spokesperson that people can rally around. I still think that the vast majority neither knew nor cared about the EU. They will care if the NHS is trashed or other parts of the welfare state.

The duty of a councillor, according to The Local Government Act 1989, is that they must 'observe principles of good governance and act with integrity'. Residents of Grenfell ruled out taking the tenants association to court because they didn't have the funds but has any K&C councillor shown 'good governance' or acted with 'integrity'?

Has K&C been able to 'facilitate effective communication between the Council and the community'?

I have to say I heard those Westminister rumours on Friday - that the Tories are conducting alternative discussions with LDs.

Potential aim to have a very loose confidence and supply agreement with DUP and LibDems in return for small concessions to ensure sufficient MPs to squash any Labour uprising.

Not sure if true or likely - I would hope not.

So, there is a void into which a decent Remain leader could step. Someone who could actually offer stability and make a positive case for the EU - no more fear and dire warnings but a focus on the benefits and security of staying. That person isn't Corbyn

You are so right captain. Corbyn can campaign amazingly well, his complete and utter lack of enthusiasm for Remain still enfuriates me now.

There must be someone in the Tory party with the desire and the charisma to push for a soft Brexit (or preferably admit the whole think was a stupid idea and bin it).

Was dropping the next Queen's Speech to give a longer window for Brexit legislation not already a likely feature of the pre-election plans? Now, post-election, it also signals a definite end-of-contract for May. So she could hang on until then.