Westministenders: The bookends to a year of political chaos. Just how far have we come?

[RedToothBrush]

The 15th June 2016.

The Thames was filled with a flotilla of boats in a publicity stunt for the Leave campaign to draw attention to fisheries. Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey in their heads thought they were Leonardo and Kate, but the moment was rather more titanic in nature and could not have been more Alan Partridge if they had tried. Coming up behind was Bob Gedolf in a shameful and cringeworthy display of swearing and abuse that really didn’t help the Remain camp in anyway. Largely unnoticed was a small boat with a family following it all unfold…

The next day things went from fiasco to horror.

Farage unveiled the Dog Whistle Poster and Jo Cox was murdered. And the UK seemed set on its course for 7 days later when the world was turned upside down by the referendum itself.

14th June 2017.

Fast forward 365 days later and another tragedy unfolded. This time of a very different nature but with no less political significance.
Grenfell.

A moment of national shame. A symbol of so many things that had come to pass in the previous twelve months.

The election just the previous week had changed the direction of travel we seemed to be headed and left the Prime Minister exposed and looking wildly out of touch. The Maybot was given one more chance.

And the Maybot seems to be failing the test of her party who had the grace to grant her a second chance.

The Queen dressed in the same shade of blue, May delivered her ‘victory speech’ in, ignored the security threat and visited the ranks of the poor and the forgotten. A deliberate message to May not to forget who she serves? A Queen who feels aggrieved and angry by May’s behaviour? Who knows.

As for Brexit. The government looks lost. Adrift. The ‘Fight of the Summer’ over the EU’s plan for talks sounds out the window despite the denials from the Brexit Department. Hard Brexit is still on the cards. Apparently. But what does anyone believe now? May’s and the Brexiteers domination of the agenda is shattered, its power starting to be questioned.

What next?

This evening the anger is building.

Who knows, what will happen. Some of it might be predictable, but the future is far from certain and we have definitely entered a new era. We just don’t know who will lead it, or what its ambition or what the end goal now is.

What we do know, more acutely than ever is that we are all human and the wise words of Jo Cox about having ‘More in Common’ ring though ever more strongly.

Once again we feel ‘on the brink’.

Yes bore it was me who said I had a strange feeling that Brexit would never happen.

Unfortunately the attempt to achieve it will destroy the country

Totally agree. Was talking about this last night with my husband. Brexit is pretty much dead, it's just that many politicians haven't realised it yet. It will destroy whichever party that heads it.

I notice even the most ardent Brexiters no longer claim we will be economically better off. They just say the country has spoken and we must follow, like some poisoned death cult.

Finally 4 days in the Government send in a task force to Grenfell. Better late than never but its too late. The government must be sweating as to whether there will be full blown riots. The lengths these poor people have had to go through to be heard. I am ashamed of our country.

Ungoogleable, unfortunately the sort of country which cuts back on safety measures is the same sort of country which says 'protect yourself and if you can't, you're the problem.'

I notice even the most ardent Brexiters no longer claim we will be economically better off.

Yes, they have been telling us that we all knew there would be a period of austerity, but that in the long run (never specified) we would be better off, and it would be worth it.

Have also noticed that yesterday the Sun reported on and named people amongst the deceased, who still aren't being reported on Guardian, BBC etc.

This article names five people as deceased

Why is this? Do they just not wait for official confirmation? Could this have contributed to residents feeling that information was being held back from them?

😂😂😂 at gerbils and your mum!

The schools thing terrifies me.

Clash what's MTD?

It comes to something when the people behind a shopping complex are being more generous and efficient in trying to help people than the council.

This is just the usual guido-bollocks surely?

You mean the hiring of a top official could be smoke and mirrors to keep tory right happy (and the job offer probably predates the election anyway)?

Re Austerity / Outsourcing.

Liverpool City Council has taken a very different response. What they have done is brought services in house as a cost saving measure and then they have offered some of these services to neighbouring councils because they are competitive. It also helps to provide jobs.
The council is labour led.

My own Labour Led council decided that charging for green bins would save money despite being told it would do the opposite. They outsourced library and leisure services to a third party - who are supposed to be not for profit. They have tried to run down library services despite their job being to preserve them. They came up with a bunch of figures to close a bunch of library and then said people could use a locker system. Which would cost more to run than the current library based on the number of books lent. In reality its a method to run down the number of available books and then in turn the number of books lend in order to say there is no longer demand for services.

Fortunately we have a bunch of people who showed the figures up to be a crock of bollocks. Libraries are not closing, though there are financial obstacles that have had to be overcome with imaginative alternatives. The organisation has been dodging questions left right and centre, claiming its not subject to Freedom of Information requests because its not a public body - as an organisation that is wholly owned by the council it is. Locals are trying to force the issue as there is a cover up of mismanagement going on.

In most cases where things are outsourced to a private company this is not covered by Freedom of Information. You no longer have a right to know how your public money is being spent.

The government abolished the Audit Office which scrutinised what councils used their budget for a couple of years ago, saying that 'citizen auditors' were just as effective.

I have tried to do this with my own local council. I'm a trained bookkeeper. I took one look at the public accounts and was horrified. Everything is so generalised there is no way you can work out how anything has been spent.

The BBC did do a documentary on "what happened to Britain's billions?" which covered a lot of this.

They should rebroadcast it.

Have also noticed that yesterday the Sun reported on and named people amongst the deceased, who still aren't being reported on Guardian, BBC etc.
Why is this? Do they just not wait for official confirmation? Could this have contributed to residents feeling that information was being held back from them?

The BBC have been reporting the exact same thing saying that family members have said that those people are dead. The Guardian have about a billion articles on the subject. I bet they have reported it if I went and had a good look.

The difference? What have the different news organisations regarded as the angle which they focus on in the headlines most.

The Sun on the other hand is not known for in depth reporting and likes the shock and splash approach. Deaths are core of this for them not the politics behind the event.

Arlene MTD is Making Tax Digital.

All business with turnover or landlords with rental income over 10k will be required to comply. It covers direct tax and vat.

Tax payers will be required to keep records digitally or potentially face a 3k fine. Originally they wanted every taxpayer affect to use accounting software but have softened and said they will now be allowed to use Excel... Provided it is compatible with accounting software.

Electronic submissions to be made to hmrc not less than once a quarter with a final submission for any adjustments - so five tax returns a year, or nine if youre vat registered.

Designed by idiots who don't understand how to prepare accounts or the differences between say income tax and vat accounting.

Hmrc estimate compliance will cost the average small business about £500 per year. At a recent conference of industry leaders most accountants are putting the cost of compliance at between 3-5k plus a year.

It is thought that it will improve accuracy in tax returns. It won't.

It also means hmrc have unprecedented access to data that they previously didn't have - or couldn't get without making a legal request for it.

It's going to be an absolute clusterfuck and is coming in for some taxpayers in April 2019 although this may be delayed as the enabling leg was part of fa 2017 which was scrapped.

But it is coming - we may get twelve months grace, I reckon.

Cutting through red tape for small businesses my arse. And it will be the small business who take the hit of this who don't routinely prepare management accounts - as they don't need to.

Walking out of the EU negotiations without a deal

imo, The Tories had one chance to deliver Brexit at little political cost to themselves - and with least damage to the UK:

Cameron could have decided to stay and immediately negotiate an EEA/EFTA Brexit.
The power and momentum was there, but his petulance and cowardice won out over his duty as PM.

So, instead, the inter regnum vacuum was filled by the Brexit Ultras and their version became the only possible one politically for the Tory Party.

So, if the Tories remain in charge, many coldly calculate that walking out of a deal is the least politically damaging for them:

because they may be able to blame the EU for the probable economic recession

whereas the alternative would result in a certain humiliating climbdown on 3 red lines: FOM, ECJ, bills

and they would suffer these devastating consequences :

1. Even voters who don't care either way about Brexit would punish a weak & wobbly national humiliation

Leavers - and Tory Brexiters especially - promised the public that a unicorn is available to deliver a Brexit satisfying all red lines, without economic cost to ordinary people in the UK.
Many even still believe they will benefit from Brexit

2. Bitter Tory civil war that could last several years

This is not solely Brexit itself:
the Tory ideological split on Brexit is between the Hard right who want Brexit as the means to unfettered capitalism and possibly Empire 2.0 vs the pragmatic centre-right and Remainers who still want some elements of a welfare state

Our main hope is that the Tory pragmatists are sufficiently appalled by the likely damage to the country of a crashed or WTO Brexit, that they will take control and push for cross party agreement on EEA /EFTA.

In those circumstances ONLY, the E27 would probably agree to a extension of the A50 2-year
BUT
If the Tory hardline remains, or if there is just chaos, then the EU will judge no sensible deal is possible,
in which case
they would prefer to let the UK stew as a horrible example to all of what being "bloody awkward" does
i.e. no extension at all

I think this is part of a lot of the confusion about numbers dead/missing.

Yesterday I thought it was just miscommunication. People not understanding that "officially confirmed deaths" is not the same as, excuse the brutal phrase, "body count".

But, in amongst all the chaos, I'm starting to see it a bit differently.

Firstly, no register of residents. So no hard to determine if the official "missing" list is complete. If a whole family has been lost, who is there to report them missing?

Secondly, the people who have been re-housed. Well, they're no longer on the estate are they? And they probably don't have phones, so they aren't getting in touch with people. Even if someone's given them a mobile, they don't have their numbers anymore. They could maybe check in as safe on Facebook or other social media. No one seems to be co-ordinating getting relatives in touch with survivors. There isn't a "safe and sound" list either- or if there is one, it's not being communicated to relatives/friends etc (I could understand it not being broadcast publically).

And then it looks like the survivors are scattered about. The footage of that gentleman who got moved from a hotel to an old folk's home against his will. He mentions that the old folk's home is half empty, and he's the only person from the estate there. Which I took to mean he was saying he felt isolated, he needed to be with people from his community. But it could equally be interpreted as him saying "As far I know, I'm the only one left. There's plenty of room for other people here, why am I the only one".

Then there's the fact that people are contacting the council, offering accommodation, and getting a pretty non-plussed response. Is that disorganization, apathy? But I can see how to someone panicked, the reason why there is that weak response is because not that much accommodation is needed.

So the response is so shambolic, it looks like something is being hidden. I thought it was a simple misunderstanding. But it's not. I still think it's a misunderstanding/miscommunication, but it's fairly complex one.

The reason Cameron had the best chance is that he had won a GE and gained a majority.
He controlled policy and had sufficient power to face down the Ultras - if he'd had the bottle.

Any Tory pragmatist / Remainers who want to change direction first have to decapitate May and the hard right cabal running policy atm.

Neither May nor her successor will have anything like the power that Cameron had, having won a majority.
Which includes the power to get the best deal from the E27

On the day of the fire there were people all over London ready to donate but you do not want to drive up there and add traffic chaos to the problems, without knowing exactly where you are going. As the day wore on the community groups like the Rugby Portobello Trust were doing their best to channel donations and money to the right places but they were overwhelmed. As fast as they gave you somewhere to go it was overwhelmed and the site for donations that was not Just Giving (who take a cut and will doubtless make money out of this) crashed. I now wonder how best to help because the chaos means the victims could get lost in the mess. It is completely disgusting in a first world country. If I compare it to being in Asia during SARS the contrast could not be greater. The Civil Service team was in action straight away. There was a tower block that transmitted the disease to all its residents because of the plumbing, even as they dealt with the wider public health issues they not only had identified exactly what had happened in days but scaffolding went up in every tower block (hundreds) including the public ones to rectify the issue elsewhere within a week. Maybe the fact that the response in the US and U.K. Was hysteria is indicative....

The wider public health issues including moving everyone judged at risk of having been affected into isolation, hundreds of people.

There will be great efforts by the political machine to repress actual death toll of Grenfall. Excuses will be found for not being able to give true figure (some if which I understand). We will never know for sure how many souls were lost. And I believe the police and fire service know it was lack of fire precautions and negligence that caused the fire hence a criminal investigation.

There will be great efforts by the political machine to repress actual death toll of Grenfall.

With respect, this is bullshit.

Best is west - I think we must be near each other going from the school post and others regarding election

BBC More or Less @BBCMoreOrLess
Close but not quite: Corbyn was 2844 votes from being PM. @Barnespa post-election numbers. Sun 18th 13.30 Radio 4.

Well I hope I am wrong about repressing figures so maybe it is bullshit. Now they have the task force there will there still be press announcements daily about victims found? Or is the idea that press releases on the figures will be less frequent so the public don't get a constant drip feed of numbers? That is what I meant by repressing numbers. Everyone with a modicum of sense knows they will not be able to identify all or indeed find anything to identify in temperatures of 1000 degrees that is a given. Personally I am not sure which us best, daily reports from the press or only now and then to spare so much intrusion on the families bereaved. Maybe I used the wrong words but I think you know what I mean.

I don't think anyone can think of suppressing the actual death toll. Incompetency and broken channels of communication (political side) and procedural issues (police, fire departments, charities helping them etc) are going to be the main determinants.

"There will be great efforts by the political machine to repress actual death toll of Grenfall."

red If "repress" means deliberately letting out the figures in dribs and drabs, minimising whenever someone missing cannot be proved to have been there, doing all possible to hide bad news ...
then I agree with Sostenueto

I also expect a full media onslaught to minimise the effects that decisions in parliament had:
e.g. Tories voting down the Labour amendment to make sprinklers compulsory for highrise blocks
To minimise the decision about removing the requirement for new schools to have sprinklers

Wait, the media has already started:
All the fear of agitators and riots.
The handmaiden line "all parties are to blame, not a party political issue"
We can see several of MN have read the Tory line and are regurgitating it

However, the Tories don't seem to be able to manage social media as yet
So the truth will out, at least to some people

From Twitter
matthewprice
@bbcmatthewprice

Saturday 17 June

08.23
I've been to disasters around the world where British and UN and other teams flew in and helped set up support centres within 48hours.
08.24
One of the things fuelling the anger here - perhaps the main thing - is the lack of a central point of contact for answers.
08.26
It's a huge logistical challenge for the government and council but I'm astonished teams have not been on the ground from day one.

09.47
I've just been told by residents association representatives for the #GrenfellTower of "absolute chaos" of "no organisation" from officials.
09.48
People are still sleeping on floors days after the fire and have not been housed.
09.48
They say the local shopping complex offered to house and pay for all affected indefinitely but were turned down by the council.
09.51
I am told senior residents association figures believe this is "symptomatic of why we had this disaster"
09.52
And they are going to tell the prime minster that they want Kensington and Chelsea council cut out of the response effort.
09.53
They do not believe they are capable of managing the response. Such is the total and utter lack of trust.

I have been a disaster zone, thousands of people being homeless on a tiny island lost in the middle of nowhere - think closest 'country', aka not another small island, was at least 5hours flight away.

The answer was better and quicker than what we saw here. There WAS a PLAN in case of emergencies like this. And it worked. Even when nearly half of the houses were destroyed, even when they had no support close by, even when electricity was cut, even a lot of people had lost everything etc... (and there was no internet etc.. that was a while ago lol).
There was ONE radio giving information to people, informing them of where to go, what to do etc etc.
Thee was never this sense of being abandoned. There was never the fear that people would have no houses at all to live in. People had a shelter of some sort and food within as soon as it was safe to do so.

And here we have a 1st world country, one that is priding itself to be one of the biggest economy, wanting to play a role a international level etc etc not even able to cope to what is, relatively, a contained disaster. (Aka not something like hurricane Katrina or the tsunami in Indonesia)

How would the country cope in the case of major, national disaster??

There will be great efforts by the political machine to repress actual death toll of Grenfall.

Actually I agree with that statement.
What I can see happening is the Police saying they can't give numbers because it takes such a long time to search the building and identify people.
So they will release a bit and then a bit and no real number (or close to the reality) will be available for a very long time.
By the time the 'real' number will be available, things will have moved on to the next crisis and the sheer size of the event will be missed altogether.

And we all know how good our politicians are at creating a new crisis, divert attention etc...

That's why having a proper number of how many people are MISSING is essential. Because that actually gives a proper idea of how many people have died.

And they know. If it's possible to know how many people were missing when the hurricane Katrina hit the US, then we can know how many people are missing from that tower.