Westministenders: The Zombie PM

[RedToothBrush]

Back from the dead, May carries on whilst the vultures circle.

She had tried to out smart her rivals by running of to the palace to tell the queen she could form a government before they could act.

Definitely she stood and pretended nothing had changed. Except everything had. The wrath of her party was unleashed and there was open revolt. She has been summoned to appear before men in grey suits tomorrow at 5pm to hear their verdict.

How do she decide to make amends and reach out to moderate Tories? By sleeping with the DUP. And appointing Gove to her Cabinet.

How long will this last? How long can it last?

May's decision making process under question. Part 5346309762986

Sebastian Payne‏*@SebastianEPayne*

May's reshuffle is beginning to look like a badly constructed fudge. PM is right to stamp her authority on the govt with new faces. But 1/5
Sacking ministers like Rob Halfon and Mike Penning when the Conservative party's appeal desperately needs widening makes no sense 2/5
It's also very bizarre to get rid of George Bridges and @DavidJonesMP from DExEU with less than a week until Brexit talks begin 3/5
May made right call to bring back Michael Gove and Dominic Raab (if only for sake of party unity). But motive behind other moves unclear 4/5
The other moves might explain the reasoning/logic. But it's not boding well for a stable few weeks in which May must secure her position 5/5

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-eu-london-clearing-business-euro-derivatives-commission-plans-european-union-a7787186.html
Brexit EU pushes ahead with plans to take control of London's clearing business
The politically charged step could force firms to move from London to the EU after Brexit

tick tick tick

eleana The crossparty bit is only in the final paragraph.
Behind the paywall:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/06/13/weakened-theresa-may-should-consider-across-party-commission/

Theresa May’s trip to Paris on Tuesday for talks with Emmanuel Macron promises to be a humbling affair for the Prime Minister.

After her setback at the polls she will be in the company of a French president who is expected to win the biggest parliamentary majority for decades, trouncing the Socialists in the process.

The French president is the master of all he surveys while she cannot even stick to her timetable for the Queen’s Speech or guarantee parliamentary support for any of her policies.

While Mrs May takes to Paris the status of her office, she has lost much of the authority to back it up

The Prime Minister emphasised during the election campaign that she needed a strong mandate or Brexit would be placed in jeopardy.

Since she is in a worse position than before, 
Mrs May now needs to demonstrate qualities of leadership to overcome the handicap of running a minority government.

She began the process on Monday, when she met Tory backbenchers at Westminster and promised to get them out of the mess she had made.

Above all, the clock is ticking towards Britain’s departure from the EU in 2019 and,

without a majority, the type of Brexit Mrs May had in mind looks doomed.

There is talk of a cross-party commission to agree a compromise that would ensure a majority for an agreed Brexit.

In view of the Westminster arithmetic, this idea needs to be looked at seriously.

Thanks, sixinthebed you have so much more helpful detail

A N Irish journalist on Woman's Hour has just said that SF are to visit WM and may use their office space. A prelude to taking up their seats as a counterbalance to the DUP?

Doing the rounds this morning. SF always come for the first day of term to register so they can collect pay. Its not something different. Something being made of nothing at this stage.

Matthew Holehouse‏*@mattholehouse*
Point missing in soft/hard debate is that the deal May was seeking of an FTA built on single market acquis just not possible without ECJ 1/2
UK wanted chunks of SM + euratom + intel and repackage under a wholly independent dispute mechanism. EU says no way. Accepting ECJ = plan A

Being inside the EU = able to have British Judges.
Being outside the EU = not able to have British Judges.

Being inside the EU = being able to influence and help form EU law.
Being outside the EU = not able to influence and help form EU law.

Gently strokes chin and ponders which is better for British Sovereignty.

But lets not reopen that debate on the EU.

woman in theory I am in favour of a written constitution, but in practice I don't think it's a good idea right here, right now. I simply don't trust either of the main parties to act in the national interest.

As an example, I had a hazy sense that if the Queen's Speech didn't pass there would be a no confidence motion, but Red linked to the FTPA which has effectively legislated around this.

I also have to agree that there is still zero chance of Sinn Fein taking their seats: despite disagreeing with them on very many issues, I do know them to be principled to a fault: they make Corbyn look like an opportunistic pragmatist by comparison. If however we were somehow recast as citizens and not subjects then I think it's more feasible for them to compromise (they are small r republicans as well as Republicans iyswim).

Btw I just need space to vent my rage at Gove: repeating the "80% voted for pro Brexit parties" BS. On the plus side it's prompted me to contact my new MP...

Westmonster‏ @WestmonsterUK
PLOT: Establishment MPs plan to water down and kill off proper Brexit. The public anger will be huge!

Otto English‏*@Otto*_English

Nah. I sense the mood has turned. Your mob always told people to "wake up!" They have and they don't like the Brexfast

Leave.Eu promoted anti-establishment thought. So when people have questioned the establishment approach to Brexit that was on offer, that's now wrong? Huh what?

Its almost as if Leave.Eu/Westmonster were out of touch and are victims of their own success. Its almost as if they had their own agenda and were trying to manipulate others to think they had a common cause. And that's now run out. So they are still trying to stir in what seems an almost a desperate panic.

If it were about the people, there would be a cross party / cross leave-remain approach to Brexit. Huh what you say?

Guy Verhofstadt‏*@GuyVerhofstadt*
#Brexit isn't just about the Tories leaving the EU, it's about the whole UK. Everyone’s voice should be heard.
I hope U.K. students can continue to participate in #ErasmusPlus program & the reverse. We should avoid a trade off on this!#IamEuropean

Verhofstadt back the Cross Bench Strategy. Gosh, Westmonster / Leave.Eu might go into melt down.

Andrew Allison:
I ask that question as I do not know the answer to it. David Jones has always struck me as a very able minister. He is a former Secretary of State for Wales. He is an experienced operator, and along with David Davis and colleagues, has managed to build-up a department from scratch in just under a year.

Jones is also a Leaver. He was very effective in Wales during last year’s EU Referendum. What is Theresa May up to? After performing so badly at the polls last week, the fears of many that she is preparing to water down Brexit will resurface. After Jones’ sacking, the optics are bad.

Has she learned anything from her humiliation last week?

Dear Andrew. See above. Yes she has. The need to realise that its not all about you my dear. Its about the 'will of the people'. And you serve all the people in a democracy, not just the ones who voted for you. Otherwise they like to remind you they are still there.

As an example, I had a hazy sense that if the Queen's Speech didn't pass there would be a no confidence motion, but Red linked to the FTPA which has effectively legislated around this.

Not guilty on this one. Believe it was Lurking...

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lord-buckethead-brexit-negotiations-theresa-may-maidenhead-kent-last-week-tonight-john-oliver-dup-a7787126.html
Lord Buckethead agrees to step in and take controls as May's Brexit spirals into chaos

I must say that this approach to Brexit might work better than the ones so far. How can he be worse that Davis, and the no deal is better than a bad deal shit?

Arborea the FTPA which has effectively legislated around this

Unfortunately it makes the bar higher for vote of no confidence, voting down the queens speech used to be enough. Now a subsequent vote of no confidence with 2/3 majority is needed.

events that previously might have forced a government out of power—such as loss of supply, defeat of a Queen's Speech or other important legislation, or a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister rather than the government as a whole—cannot formally do so

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

We are reliant on public opinion and the media to protest against this mess that is in power at the moment. Without a queens speech we have nothing to get purchase on.

My main concern is referenda. If they're not used in other 1st world democracies, and favoured by demagogues, we should never have to go through this again. If UKIP hadn't imploded they were pushing for one on capital punishment.

It's time to grow up here in Britain, and I think it needs to be formally embedded in a constitution. Fun as this is, it's also a f**ing disgrace that a 1st world country should have been taken hostage as it has by who knows who and what, to be in the shambles we are in today, caused by that stupid referendum and election.

Right now this country is being kept going by public servants. 5 days after an election and counting.

It is embarrassing.

If we were to have another Referendum I would hope that it was a) drawn up properly and b) wasn't a yes/no, but enabled us to order a list of preferences. I think we would find then that most people do not want a hard brexit. I would suspect an EEA option, if possible, would be a working compromise for both Leavers and Remainers.

I would suspect an EEA option, if possible, would be a working compromise for both Leavers and Remainers.

I agree.

Many have said this, including on these threads, but No Compromise! has been prevalent with the extremes on both sides unfortunately.

The very broad middle ground would be happy, I'm sure.

Particularly the EEA option which Kier Starmer seems to be talking about when he's actually read the legislation on the four freedoms and found that it only refers to workers, not people.

It is a shame this wasn't spotted sooner given its been there since the Treaty of Rome, but better late than never.

A final point on a written constitution. I know it's received wisdom that an unwritten one provides the flexibility inherent in British parliamentary democracy.

But it has weaknesses, which were spotted and have just been used to great effect by the Banks, Bannon and Murdoch crew.

The EU27 have watched in amazement at the electoral fraud, advisory referendum used as a mandate for this constitutional, political and economic mess, international funding, filtered donations, unregulated and inaccurate and inciteful tory press, and now even the toleration of a government deal which is in direct opposition to the GFA.

A civilised democracy would not have a constitution which permits this.

If we don't learn and act on this attack on democracy we may not be so lucky next time.

There is no equivalence in number or intensity in the 2 sides when it comes to die-hard refuseniks on EEA / EFTA

There are now very few Remainers who would refuse an EEA / EFTA deal, especially Remainer MPs and Remain voters.
It may not be the preferred option and a few still hope for Remain, but almost all could at least grudgingly accept it.

However, there are a substantial number of Ultra Brexiters, especially in the Tory party, probably 100 MPs, who would try to bring down any PM and destroy any govt that attempted an EEA / EFTA deal.
Ask John Major.
And ask Cameron why he was forced to take such a ridiculous gamble.
They would go for scorched earth
Some are talking about riots and terrorism if they don't get their Year Zero Brexit

Some are talking about riots and terrorism exactly. Who's really behind this malarkey.

Ian Dunt‏Verified account
@IanDunt
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Some Remainers are against even discussing soft Brexit but in all strategies you need an ideal outcome & then levels of least-bad outcome.

Remain is best. Failing that, should minimise damage of bad outcome, so pursue soft Brexit. Basically insurance in case of failure.

These approaches are not mutually exclusive. You can pursue both at same time.

Even if soft Brexit fails, there is still a least-bad outcome of ensuring we adopt realistic timetable & level up negotiating capacity.

In other words, there are least-bad goals which are to do with method as well as outcomes.

Just saying 'Brexit or no Brexit' is simplistic and counter-productive. You need idealism and pragmatism to succeed.

This is not about winning or being right. It is a patriotic mission to stop right-wing vandals sabotaging our society.

You fight to stop them, yes. But if you fail you need a way of limiting the damage they can do.

End of rant.

Thank you for the Telegraph article BigChoc

probably 100 MPs which leaves the majority on the other side.

A civilised democracy would not have a constitution which permits this

True, but as the Trump administration shows even written constitutions can be worked around. And unscrupulous people can always seek enhanced powers later, like Erdogan.

Someone has to draft a constitution, and the process of selecting what to include and exclude is highly important in itself. Earlier I mentioned the ECHR: it's true that it could be copied and pasted into a new Bill of Rights, but realistically the Tories in particular are going to want to tweak it and I can't see them strengthening individuals' rights. I could quite see them saying that British Courts should be sovereignty, so people like these would not have access to Strasbourg: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-40257710 (I'm not intending any comment on the merits of their case btw).

On a separate point, does anyone know of any pro EU social media stuff, other than the 48%? I strongly believe that it would be good to be able to mimic the success of some of Labour's strategy (e.g. the Somewhere Only We Know video): I think it would be good to share examples of reasons to 'Thank Eu', but I think it's most powerful if it looks classy (while I have always thought that e.g. UKIP stuff looks amateur. That might be deliberate, but I don't think it's the right approach for pro EU stuff which needs to look both aspirational and mainstream, kind of John Lewis style... ). That earlier link about EU anti tax avoidance is a great example: I know very few people who think that it's ok that Amazon, Starbucks etc pay so little, and a lot of people who are obsessed with political parties balancing the books when planning public expenditure...

woman Many of the other Tory MPs would risk career oblivion, or deselection by an angry local party - even in some Remain constituencies, the small membership is very different to ordinary voters.

There are about 10 hardcore Lexiter MPs, the most prominent being McDonnell.
So, nothing like the opposition there against EEA

It's all about MOs having the judgement and courage to do the best to avoid serious economic damage to their constituents.
Not putting political dogma or personal career ahead of their duty
Many will keep their heads down, until they think it less dangerous - so they are all waiting for someone else.

I am starting to have a remain crush on Dominic Grieve who has wiped the floor with Batshit Howerd on Daily Politics

Go go DOM!!!

LEAVE.EU 🇬🇧 @LeaveEUOfficial
May sabotages Brexit team with Remainer minister days before EU talks. She thinks she can get away with anything!

It’s a bit like the Bystander Effect. Once one person of a high enough profile starts saying that Hard Brexit is a fucking awful idea others then feel brave enough to jump in in support.

The Wets are rising against the rabids in the Tory party. About time they found their balls