Westministenders: Before the Fire Alarm of Rome goes off

[RedToothBrush]

I’m going to keep this one very simple.

THE DEADLINE TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS 22ND MAY.
www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Postal votes start to go out on 23rd May.

Your challenge is to persuade someone to register to vote or to get someone who is considering not to, to get their arse to the polling station.

Go forth and harass. Especially women and the young.

That’s it. No frills OP.

Rufus

www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/30/corbyn-i-would-never-use-nuclear-weapons-if-i-was-pm

He's vacillating a bit now that there's an election (like the "principled" man he is) but in no way has he abandoned the habits of a lifetime:

www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/jeremy-corbyn-still-dodging-nuclear-question

Thanks mrsS i will take a look at that

When he was on the telly he certainly wasnt being very clear

According to the FT, TM is considering raising taxes on wealth and inheritance which is interesting.

"Theresa May is considering raising post-death taxes to fund changes to social care provision, as the Conservatives examine radical measures to tackle the effects of an ageing population...
The idea of asking wealthier people to contribute to rising social care costs after their death, through higher inheritance tax or other reforms, is being canvassed in Tory circles before next week’s manifesto launch."

www.ft.com/content/896845e0-362d-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3

I wonder how that'll square with the DM.

Ok NOW I'm REALLLY angry:

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/05/brexit-means-leaving-eurovision/#more-63718
Brexit means…leaving Eurovision

re curry house anger:
Before the ref, I saw on the Leave site a section openly aimed at Muslim voters, claiming that after Brexit there'd be a fairer immigration system, giving them more chance of bringing over family members.

I thought even then, that of all the differing aims of Brexit, wishing to increase Muslim immigration was an improbable driver.

May is indeed leveling immigration rights - downwards, shared misery for EU and non-EU alike.
However, for the E27 expats already here, that change is retrospective, which really wrecks lives

Evening Standard YouGov poll for London

CON 36%(+2)
LAB 41%(+4)
LDEM 14%(nc)
UKIP 6%(-3).

Above changes are from the previous YouGov London poll, in March.

Compared to 2015 GE, that means:
CON +1
LAB -3
LDEM +6

The 2% swing from Lab to Con since 2015 GE is significantly less than the average 6% across the UK.

This difference seems because the Tories are doing worse in London than elsewhere and the LibDems are doing better.

Labour’s -3% fall in London is similar to their UK performance.

I wonder how that'll square with the DM.

And the Telegrpaph. Cameron was elected on the pledge of inheritance tax cuts.

Do we want to spend 30-100 billion on Trident, for the tiny chance that as patriotic radioactive cinders we could turn millions of enemy civilians into radioactive cinders too

Well, only a tiny part of our enemy, if that were a Russian or Chinese attack.

Of the other nuclear powers:

. No chance vs the US either - their 2nd launch would make our cinders bounce.
. The French would die when the radioactivity drifted over the channel, if they nuked us
. We could wipe out little Israel, very mean though
. Pakistan, N Korea etc have a few nukes that they can only deliver v locally - and are more likely to blow up in their faces at launch

No < evil saboteur > I'd rather spend that 30-100 billion on the nhs and services for the disabled

Also, the Scits are massively against Trident and they are the poor sods that have to host the damn subs.
If May wants to retain Trident, she should base them in the Home Counties - oops geographical / sea problem there ! Maybe at Devonport instead.

As I said, the Conservatives are WORRIED about London. In a big way.

I actually think the whole reason for the GE is to get rid of all the daft DC / GO voter bribery policies. Labour moving properly Left provides the ideal opportunity. The average DM / Torygraph reader is hardly going to vote Lab or LibDem in protest.

I don't get the trope that the Torys are going Right under TM - all the evidence on policy looks the opposite - people forget the long implementation tail on a lot of the DC / GO changes, resulting in TM getting the blame for them.

As I said, the Conservatives are WORRIED about London. In a big way.

So good you said it twice

Well, you're right - I'm a Tory, born in London, and I'm worried about the place. On the other hand, if that London poll is right, then London is flattering the Labour national vote share very significantly. The Tory lead outside London must be colossal...

Surely the LibDem doing better in London hurts Labour more than Conservative and at worst a net nil result with the odd LibDem pyrrhic victory thrown in? 100% sure TM wasn't expecting to win a Brexit mandate GE on London gains.

I don't necessarily think that true.

There are few Lab/LD marginals in London. (Vauxhall will prove to be an odd one)

Labour's vote share is significantly higher in London than in the rest of the country. 41% compared to 26%.

The polling has not come from people who are LDs. The LD share has ALSO gone up. So where has that come from?

There is only one answer there. From the Conservatives.

Given so many people are concerned about Brexit in the capital, I do think there will be significant 'anti-Tory' voting which is tactical in there too.

And it does tie in with rumours that the Tories are worried and very desperate to get their vote out.

If the Cons were to loose certain seats in London, and a significant number of them, that sends a message about business too and how much faith the Conservatives have lost in certain circles.

That political - and economic - capital is important.

Bare in mind that LDs nicking votes off CONs could also hand seats to LAB.

Why do you think there is stuff about fearing a Corbyn win? Its not about the election. Its purely about London seats.

I hear what you say red, but I am sceptical about your conclusion because the Con vote is up on 2015 and I am not convinced how much Richmond style Labour switching to LibDem there will be in a GE. I do think readopting Zac is a mistake for the Conservatives but that is probably so that they can disavow him when he loses. I am also hoping Vince gets in to put some sense back into the LibDems.

If the Cons were to loose certain seats in London, and a significant number of them, that sends a message about business too and how much faith the Conservatives have lost in certain circles.

Hmm a choice between a low tax hard Brexit from the Tories vs. massive income / corporation / wealth taxes from Labour? Given those options, I imagine Labour's policies will turn off the better-off in droves. The Tory problem in London is demographic more than anything else.

prettybird tablet, yummy. Radio 4's More or Less is doing an item on stats and Scottish elections.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08pgswp
And Glasgow is miles better remember that?

When I was wee I always read it as Glasgow Smiles Better - something about us having to make our own sunshine

red I'll give you Kingston Upon Thames and Sutton and Cheam to add to Twickenham but after that I agree with Summerisle - we are talking about Tories here after all.

London is its own country, really. Population of NI, Scotland and Wales put together? Culturally completely different to the rest of the country. But most importantly the financial hub of the whole show.

Having no London mandate is going to look poor for madam president.

JC's manifesto is what labour used to stand for. There was a hell ova fight to keep the old clause 4. He's old labour principles in a daft hat.

We have a UKIP standing in my tory area, I've emailed lib dem candidate to ask about electoral pact with standing labour and Green candidates, to get cabinet minister tory shite bag MP de throned.

Howabout Doing my best ;-)

It may all have gone a bit Iraq war but hard pressed to find anyone who admits to voting Tory around here at the moment. I just drove down a fairly affluent street in the Richmond constituency where every house had a Libdem sign outside.....

I should have taken a picture to raise spirits, shouldn't I?

MrsS Vince told me on the doorstep that he had had the warmest welcome he had ever had when he spent a day with business leaders in the City recently. He would not have expected them to be Libdem voters but their current frustration meant that they were very receptive to the anti hard Brexit message.

I was impressed by his grasp of the detail as well, knew exactly how many EU academics have now left (13%) and all the figures on the shortfalls in Science funding and research projects that had been affected. The thing about middle class Londoners is that we like an expert.

The conservative campaign is very low key around here compared to the last election, they may be worried but it looks on the ground as if they may just have decided that they are happy to lose Zac and Tania, and their pesky support of EU immigrants........

A Corbyn quote from the article MrsSummer linked to up thread. The article is from a year ago and it is clear since then that while his personal view are anti-trident he has accepted the will of the party that trident will remain, so I think these views have been modified. I think he makes some very fair points. I find he is one of the few leaders that rarely talks in sound bites and it is always worth reader the full speech as he usually explains his reasoning very well.

"Corbyn said: “There are five declared nuclear weapon states in the world. There are three others that have nuclear weapons. That is eight countries out of 192; one hundred and eighty-seven countries do not feel the need to have nuclear weapons to protect their security. Why should those five need them to protect their security? We are not in the cold war any more.

“I don’t think we should be spending £100bn on renewing Trident. That is a quarter of our defence budget. There are many in the military that do not want Trident renewed because they see it as an obsolete thing thing they don’t need. They would much rather see it spent on conventional weapons.”

Been busy all day, thought I'd pop in for a catch up. Quickly scrolled to Brexit means leaving Eurovision. Think I may have to come back later with some to cope!