Westministenders: Before the Fire Alarm of Rome goes off

[RedToothBrush]

I’m going to keep this one very simple.

THE DEADLINE TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS 22ND MAY.
www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Postal votes start to go out on 23rd May.

Your challenge is to persuade someone to register to vote or to get someone who is considering not to, to get their arse to the polling station.

Go forth and harass. Especially women and the young.

That’s it. No frills OP.

pretty

Is that scotch tablet?

Where do you live? I can be there ina few hours

I think I heard on the radio that the discrepancy over the SNP council gains/losses was going to be covered on more or less today.
Charmageddon, do you think there is any realistic chance of Labour or the Lib Dems gaining a majority? I am just hoping that the Conservatives don't gain a huge landslide, and voting accordingly: I want there to be enough MP's on the opposition bench to moderate what the Tories want to do. I hate the "all Tories are monsters" rhetoric too, but I am worried about what might happen during five years of a particularly right wing, authoritarian Tory government with an unprecedented majority. (How many seats might they win in June? 400? 500? more? I don't even want to guess at what point the number becomes hyperbole)

I've heard the Conservatives are aiming for 470 seats.

candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/election/parl.2017-06-08/party/party:85/uk-independence-party-ukip
Full list of where UKIP are standing and where they aren't.

The Liberal Democrats Will Pledge To Completely Legalise Cannabis

Wow, I would be pretty supportive of this, but did not expect it to come from the lib Dems.

Couple of points in defence of the BBC re SNP vote share. It is true their share is largely unchanged since 2012 and they have more seats albeit based on different boundaries and allocations.

However it is also true that:
1 2015 GE and 2016 Holyrood had SNP vote share at 50%+ as opposed to the drop back to 32% for the Council
2 The dispersion of the vote was different from 2012. Labour lost votes evenly across the board to the benefit of the SNP. OTOH the Conservatives gained seats in other areas at the expense of the SNP.
3 The SNP councillor total is flattered because they had multiple candidates in many more wards and in wards where the Conservatives won a substantial vote share they did not have enough.

In terms of bias the BBC underplaying the scale of the Conservative threat to the SNP would probably help the Conservatives as any one holding there nose and voting Tory may be happy with some Tory MPs but not loads. The fact that they are perceived to be doing the opposite by SNP supporters is interesting.

I'm more scared of Corbyn getting in than I am of anything else tbh.

He's appealing massively to the popular vote & the disenfranchised - Corbyn & his fan club seem intent on declaring war on the very people that pay most of the tax take and making Britain as unattractive for business as possible and that's an appealing thought to the masses who have had enough.

He'll ruin us.

It's been the position for a while. I didn't think it would be in the manifesto though. It's pretty bold.

Evidence for legalisation seems stronger than to the contrary. May's personal opposition to it whilst in government with the LDs, makes it an interesting one too.

It will generate them publicity, and it could be used against May herself I suspect in terms of evidence based stuff which might cut through with some educated people.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/11/theresa-may-grilled-over-state-of-public-services-during-radio-phone-in?CMP=share_btn_tw

Spot the 'what I would say'

It's not scotch tablet but it is Scottish tablet

I make the best tablet says I modestly but confirmed by everyone who's tasted it (using my mum's recipe which has a slightly different technique - but still took me 13 batches initially with a different one of Mum's recipes until my dad said it wasn't the one she'd annotated as the "best" until I could make it consistently every time) : making a couple of batches for a cake stall tomorrow at a 7s tournament, to raise funds for the junior section of the rugby club.

pretty you don't take tablet to gatherings south of the border as a treat for the deprived, do you?

(Apologies for the slight derail).

Evidence for legalisation seems stronger than to the contrary

The UK doesn't do evidence-based policy. It does morality-based policy.

Are you a plant from Tory Central HQ Charmaggedon? The chances of Corbyn getting a majority are zilch.

www.ft.com/content/2994afe4-43b0-3763-a80c-92351473496f

Little reminder about this too.

Remain would win an EU referendum in 2021, based on population projections

Remain would win the EU referendum if it was held again in 2021. This is the first year in which the result would be reversed, based on an FT analysis of population projections and what we know about turnout and voting intention among different age groups

When will we exit the EU? Why don't the Conservatives want a second referendum in 2019 on exit terms?

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-ministers-misled-us-over-immigration-say-furious-curry-house-bosses-a3537356.html
Brexit ministers misled us over immigration, say furious curry house bosses

Celebrity chef Oli Khan, senior vice-president of the Bangladesh Caterers Association (BCA), which represents 12,000 restaurants and take-aways in the UK, said: “It’s still early days but nothing is happening. We are very worried that they have given us a false hope. We feel really betrayed by the Leave campaigners. They have actually used us to win the referendum.”

I shall refrain from comment.

Charmageddon there is literally not a snowflake's chance in hell that Corbyn will be elected based on current polling, there would need to be some sort of seismic political event before the election for that to happen.

Bear in mind though that some estimates suggest that the cost of the Labour manifesto promises and the cost of Brexit are similar* ... the difference being that Labour policies would put that money in the hands of the less well-off (hello multiplier effect!) whereas the money spent on brexit will go into the hands of companies, the wealthy, and the EU.

* Note: I don't agree (I think brexit will be far more expensive than what Labour is proposing)

I'm not a Labour supporter btw, and I think their manifesto priorities are disappointing - in particular I think the decision to prioritise student fees over anti-poverty measures is a big mistake.

www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-in-the-west-midlands-the-heads-of-my-labour-background-focus-group-battle-with-their-hearts.html
Lord Ashcroft: In the West Midlands, the heads of my Labour-background focus group battle with their hearts

I do indeed Patty I even send it to various anonymous internet friends (who I've got to know on Facebook but haven't necessarily ever met) occasionally as a RAOK (Random Act of Kindness)

I'm more scared of Corbyn getting in than I am of anything else tbh.

How does that stop you voting LD?

The chances of Corbyn getting in are also slim.

I am not entirely in a different mindset. I think Corbyn goes too far.

The Conservative Election strategy is to over egg the chances of a Labour win to stop Tories losing votes to the LDs in order to take the country even further to the right.

I'm also not cool with that.

Do you want to be manipulated by a threat that doesn't exist?

The worst case scenario here is that the Tories don't get a majority, but do manage to get the most seats. Even this is unlikely.

This won't result in a coalition. More likely it will be case by case compromises on individual issues. Which probably is the scenario that is most in the national interest. This includes on issues relating to Brexit where, remember, many Labour MPs are still pro Leave.

Take a step back and look at the realistic scenarios that will come from the election.

Corbyn winning or Brexit being stopped aren't either of them.

Prettybird, that is magnificent.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/liberal-democrats/news/85866/lib-dems-unveil-plan-extra-month-parental
Lib Dems unveil plan for extra month of parental leave for dads

Another LD policy. One that they had in 2010 too. Bit of a dig at May on this one too.

Lib Dem business spokeswoman Susan Kramer said: "Creating a fair system for parents everywhere not only benefits new mums and dads but also helps our business sector.

"Having a workforce that is both more flexible and more motivated will benefit UK businesses greatly.

"It is the Liberal Democrats who are standing up for fairness and flexibility for parents. Theresa May has never cared."

That's a bit close to the bone and Andrea Leadsom.

Britain Elects @ BritainElects

Fairstead (King's Lynn & West Norfolk) result:

LAB: 44.0% (+5.3)
CON: 32.8% (+2.3)
UKIP: 11.8% (-19.0)
LDEM: 11.4% (+11.4)

Lab HOLD.

From last night.

Note Kippers down 19% but not to the benefit of the Cons...

Overall pattern is that cons benefit, but it's not that simple.

I agree with you to a certain extent Howabout - but why doesn't the BBC just say that - as opposed to re-writing history?

Labour used to and did run multiple candidates in many wards - that was why they had an overall majority in Glasgow in a system that doesn't encourage majorities.

In my ward, the SNP stood two candidates as they did the last time - even though this time it is now a 4 councillor ward. (It now has one SNP, one Labour, one Conservative who will no longer be lonely and one Green) The SNP failed to get in their 2nd candidate both times.

As a a percentage of the total number of seats (which would take into account the changes in the number of wards), the SNP share has actually gone up -contrary to perception.

If the Conservatives "could" have got more, then that is a failure of their strategy.

Personally, the more I think about voting systems, the more I think the hybrid d'Hondt system used at Holyrood is the best form of genuinely Proportional Representation. The STV system isn't really proportional - it's more "preferential" and even then, not everyone's preferences get the same weight.

pretty maybe I know you.

Oh, and while I'm derailing, the extraction went OK, thanks for asking hashi. I've been a bit peculiar with the painkillers until today, though.

Right, I promise to behave now. Sorry, Red.

Are you a plant from Tory Central HQ Charmaggedon? The chances of Corbyn getting a majority are zilch.

Lol 😂 no!

The polls are quite overwhelming I agree, but I don't entirely trust them.

I rationally know that the difference between the two is bigger than the margin for error, obviously, but then again - I never thought I'd see Trump as POTUS.

The polls between Hillary and Trump were much closer than the ones between Labour and the Conservatives are now, aren't they?