Westministenders: Before the Fire Alarm of Rome goes off

[RedToothBrush]

I’m going to keep this one very simple.

THE DEADLINE TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS 22ND MAY.
www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Postal votes start to go out on 23rd May.

Your challenge is to persuade someone to register to vote or to get someone who is considering not to, to get their arse to the polling station.

Go forth and harass. Especially women and the young.

That’s it. No frills OP.

A short little summary on polls after the labour manifesto leak.

Labour poll boost after manifesto leak but Tories maintain big lead
www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/opinion-polls/news/85894/labour-poll-boost-after-manifesto-leak-tories-maintain-big

Do Scots Unionists on the left, who voted Tory "for the Union" feel happy it's all worth it , whatever those councillors do to their community or say about anyone else ?

If you vote Tory in the GE "for the Union" think about the kind of people you are electing, under the veneer of pretended respectability.

BigChoc . I imagine Scots will be furious with this.

@carolecadwalla
Thing is IF Cambridge Analytica did "help" @LeaveEUOfficial (as they said they did), that would be illegal...
#BrexitQuestions

Bigly
Pesky FBI chasing Russian mobster loans in 1990s when bankrupt Trump couldn't get a bank loan.
Compare and Contrast with
Pesky Electoral Commission and CPS chasing Russian mobster and US Mercer financing and organising Leave digital campaign when tory party membership is falling off a cliff.
Allegedly.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/13/brexit-bullies-turning-on-those-sorting-out-their-mess
Brexit bullies turn on those sorting out their mess
Nick Cohen

Sunday Mail cover
Ned Donovan @ned_donovan
How the NHS ignored 66 ransomware attacks on trusts across the country last year, and did nothing. My story in today's MoS.

Note this with article above in context.

The NHS did nothing. The same NHS that is strapped for cash and begged the government for money and got sent packing. Its not the government's fault. It's the NHS's.

A blind toad could have predicted this happening. The NHS have been told to prioritise and so they did. The blind toads in government just blame them for doing what they were told.

Don't worry the NHS IT systems will be updated with blackboards and chalk soon enough.

And it seems Arron Banks openly admitted that they did help,

I imagine they feel pretty safe with regard to any possible prosecution here.
You're right Kaija. But, I noticed that the 'Today' programme followed up her story on Radio 4 last Tuesday. It will take a while, but the truth will eventually filter through.

My hope is that it did take a while for the American media to get their act together and start openly opposing trump. There is also evidence that viewing habits among Americans are changing and people are starting to view and read more of the outlets that discuss the Trump investigations.

I am hoping that as Brexit progresses more media will start to openly question and be critical of May and Brexit and that social media will help to point people to the media that is not just supporting the tory party line. It will take time though for this to shift and the fact that May is better at not publishing her every thought on Twitter means it will be easier for people to keep their heads firmly planted in the sand.

More polls:

• Latest polls show Tory lead narrowing from humongous landslide to very big landslide.

• LibDems vote dropping

• UKIP slashed to tiny %.
  Voters have returned to (mostly) Tory, which has united the UK right from centre to the swivel-eyed reaches.
  As these polls are national, UKIP may get even lower % in a GE, because in many constituencies UKIP chose / is unable to put up candidates.

Fieldwork at least partially before the Labour manifesto leak.

ComRes, for Sunday Mirror & Independent, lead 18%
CON 48%(-2)
LAB 30%(+5)
LDEM 10%(-2)
UKIP 5%(-2)

Opinium poll, Observer, Lead 15%
CON 47%(+1)
LAB 32%(+2)
LDEM 8%(-1)
UKIP 5%(-2)
GRN 2%(nc)

ORB weekly poll, Sunday Telegraph, lead 14%
CON 46%(nc)
LAB 32%(+1)
LDEM 8%(-1)
UKIP 7%(-1)

If JC's so crap why is Labour going up? JC's rallies are what Trump and Macron did.

Here is the article:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/14/robert-mercer-cambridge-analytica-leave-eu-referendum-brexit-campaigns?CMP=sharebtnn_tw

My only hope is that as both Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore come across as extraordinarily vain and over-excited about playing with the big boys, they are bound to fuck up sooner or later.

Think labour has gone up because manifesto is unashamedly populist and full of unicorns. I have mixed feelings about this.

It took quite a while in the early 1970s for the press (except for WP) to realise Nixon was a crook and longer until the GOP was forced to accept that and take action.
imo, the institutions and public now are less informed and more willing to accept illegal acts by "their" side.

On both sides of the pond.
Difference is that Trump is incredibly narcissistic and unused to any constraints, because he's not a professional politician.
In contrast, UK rightwing politicians - however arrogant - are used to (mostly) hiding what they really feel about people who aren't rich.

May has one difference to Trump. She is not beholden to Banks and Wigmore.

However Brexit Britain will need to be a haven for money laundering.

My thought is that she perhaps has reason to get rid of those pair to consolidate her own power though.

Adam Beinkov @adambeinkov
Theresa May asked by the Sunday Times about Brexit negotiations: "We are going to go into a negotiation and a negotiation is a negotiation."

Robert Slinger @ Robert kapot
Software glitch on the Maybot? Maybe she's still running Microsoft XP?

My thought is that she perhaps has reason to get rid of those pair to consolidate her own power though.

Or vice versa. Govey is building up support amongst the brexiteers/alt right. His moral compass is quite relaxed, if you see what I mean.

Worth recalling the 2015 GE vote (and the polls before them) to put those recent polls in context:

CON 36.9% (polls: 33.6%)
LAB 30.4% (polls: 33.5%)
UKIP 12.6% (polls: 12.7%)
LDEM 7.9% (polls:10.0%)

Also worth noting in 2015 GE CONKIP was 49.5%, compared to about 53% now. If we assume that the pollsters corrections following the GE now mean the polls more accurately reflect the final vote, we find that support for Labour and the CONKIP alliance have each strengthened by 2-3%.

I'm not sure I understand that. Must mean either that votes are being lost by "others", or there's some oddness regarding "undecideds" in the polls.

Of course, the polls may be as inaccurate as before. If they don't capture latent Tory support (e.g., people who hate Brexit but hate Labour/Corbyn more), then the landslide will indeed be humungous (particularly when you factor in FPTP effects ). On the other hand, I have done a little analysis of the reported polling figures and I find that to make sense of the data I need to fit different models pre-2015 and post-2015, suggesting that the pollsters have made some substantial changes to their methodologies. Then there's tactical voting too. So who knows...?

But yeah, taken at face value, Corbyn may have effected a disastrous 2% increase in support for the Labour party. Bring back Miliband!

JC 'surging' in polls? Modest and steady gains?
www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/unnoticed-and-unreported-jeremy-corbyn-surging-polls

I also get the impression that there is a fear on the Tory side that some Tories may just decided not to bother voting if they are confident there will be a Tory landslide anyway. Low turnout on the right could make a difference.

Carole Cadwalladr's work is amazing. She's so brave to take this on.

Oh yeah forgot. The Electoral Commission is being abolished isn't it?

Personally I think the polls are probably wrong. The default position of most people in this country is to vote Tory and it requires a special set of circumstances to override this.

So the Tory landslide will be caused by a UKIP collapse not a labour collapse. Bloody kippers, I always knew everything was their fault.

I am developing a bit of a crush on Carole Cadwalladr. I do like a smart woman

Bigchoc 2 out of the 56 SNP MPs from 2015 were suspended from the Party for financial impropriety directly affecting their constituents. There are bad apples in every barrel. It is also beyond belief that all SNP MPs, MSPs, and Councillors are not Nationalists in the true sense of the word.

Eeeeeew I have been struggling with the "JC is wrecking the party" narrative for a while. The polls look very much like he is headed in the right direction and it is the PLP which is handicapping him by undermining his credibility - nice to see someone else say it.

Preston on Sunday @pestononsunday
Brexit Sec @DavidDavisMP calls hard & soft #Brexit 'propaganda terms' + says both sides said leave vote means leaving single market #Peston

Remember that time when lots of leavers were campaigning saying the opposite.

Well that.