Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

Jaunty Sunday Times: the background to May calling the GE

"Liam Fox had it all planned out.
After cabinet last Tuesday he was due to chair a ministerial meeting in his international trade department.

The first item on the agenda: updating them on what Theresa May had to say.
The note circulated said: “Light cabinet agenda. Probably not much to discuss.”

"There was some laughing around the table but everyone knew the moment it left her mouth that we have to do this.”

"In two ways, Brexit was the key to it — providing May with both motive and opportunity.
Her decision reveals much about the way the prime minister does her business and the mandate she is now seeking to rule:

from the opaque relations with those outside her inner circle and the desire not to be rushed into making decisions, to the way she can then transform herself into a dynamic political gambler.
May and her team were too busy with Brexit to consider an election, but once article 50 was declared on March 29, it cleared the way for her to change her mind.

“This is the only time you can do it because we are waiting for the EU to come back with their negotiating position. That concentrates the mind,” a source said.
“The run-up to article 50 and the delivering of the letter [on leaving the EU] had to be the primary thought in all our heads.
In the calmness of an Easter break you ask the question: what’s next?”

< I still think the prospect of 20-30 byelections in those dodgy 2015 seats was a major factor
And of course the rare opportunity to slaughter a Labour Party that is in impotent chaos>

"Tory MPs, with the combination of submissive awe and slightly sinister familiarity which governs the party’s reaction to a female boss, have taken to referring to their leader as “Mummy” in their text exchanges." [NOT envy emoticon]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/election-2017/the-lady-is-going-for-gold-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-general-election-2017-britain-brexit-vote-7w9s396q8

Re: Today being St George's Day

Is it just me or is it weird there being a 'Happy St George's Day' message from both the PM and the leader of the opposition?

I don't recall it being 'a thing'.

St George being Turkish.

as the indications are that ALL the parties could be tarred with the same brush if it was worth the bother.

What, up to 40 seats?
Did Remain filter funds throughout the DUP during the ref campaign too?

If Corbyn lost his seat, he'd be out.
No party will call a byelection in a (supposedly) safe seat, just to bring back a leader in his late 60s who has led his party to a bad defeat and lost his own safe seat.

Even having a much reduced majority in his own seat would reduce his authority still further (if that's possible)

Saying that "they are all at it" is a classic deflection tactic which the Tories are using to minimise their alleged malfeasance at the last GE
Their main method of damage limitation is, naturally, this GE

St George being Turkish maybe it's her Erdogan envy showing through.

Fucking flags, it's like the 'Tomorrow belongs to me' scene in "Cabaret" in most English towns right now.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/green-party-pulls-out-crucial-10281739#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Green Party pulls out of crucial election seat to help Labour beat the Tories

Ealing Central and Acton - MP currently Labour's Rupa Huq who had a majority of 274. It was a straight two horse race with none of the other over 6%. The Greens got 1,841 votes in 2015.

(I note here the seat was Con in 2010 and was essentially a three horse race but the LD vote completely collapsed in 2015 - losing some 10,000 votes - and looks to have switched to Labour and the Conservatives. It was 28% leave and understandably UKIP support is relatively small. Its the type of seat where anything could happen and I really wouldn't like to call it).

I am increasingly thinking the best thing for labour would be for all the major names to lose their seats. Maybe getting wiped out and having to start again with a relatively unknown band of bright young things is what is needed. If Corbyn goes, but leaves the party dominated by blairites again it will just continue to rot in the same faux tory quagmire they started in. I am firmly of the opinion that people who believe that Corbyn is the only problem with labour and that if he would just go everything would be right with the world are deluding themselves.

Of course it would be pretty shitty for all the rest of if we are left with absolutely no opposition to the Tories while labour rebuild, but it's not as if they are all that much help as it is anyway.

Meanwhile in Shipley, Sophie Walker of the WEP is asking other candidates to step down so that she can beat Philip Davis. It seems slightly arrogant to me for a political novice - from a party that doesn't stand a chance and has no political record - to consider this.

Predictably, Davis has come out fighting: “I have consistently asked Sophie Walker to quote just one thing I have ever said which has asked for a woman to be treated less favourably than a man, and she hasn’t been able to find even one quote from the 12 years I have spent in parliament."

Over to you, Bolshy.

Macron Reportedly Holds Slight Lead Over Le Pen in Early Exit Polls

read more: www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/LIVE-1.785045/701530890

Bigly I'm with you on that, but it's an unfashionable view round here. I agree that Corbyn's leadership skills are wanting, but we've had people on here saying things like 'Just imagine if it were Balls / D Miliband / Cooper / ...' at the helm. We don't have to imagine very hard. It'd be like the EdStone all over again.

Informative article about Tim Farren (written during the Liberal leadership election)

He seems a very odd unconventional character, certainly not in the usual mould.
Some odd views, but he has a strong record of keeping electoral promises - I expect he would refuse coalition (but the situation won't arise unless May does a Webcam eating little kittens)

I hadn't realised he'd voted against tuition fees and the bedroom tax, the former because of promises to his constituents.

"Integrity is important. You must not only keep your word but be seen to keep your word. You can say no."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11740888/Tim-Farron-the-Christian-Lefty-on-course-to-be-elected-Liberal-Democrat-leader.html

@LibDemKeith
Remain vote was 78.4% in this constituency. These people are seriously unhappy with Corbyn. All to play for

With this and if David Miliband would stand in Maidenhead.

grasping at straws.........

maybe it's her Erdogan envy showing through.

Are you referring to his magnificent execution of a populist referendum power-grab of epic proportions based on misinformation and accompanied by multiple allegations of fraud, getting the brexit-like narrowest of majorities and awarding himself the direct equivalent of "royal prerogative" rights for every aspect of government for the next decade as a result. Bonus points for his carte blanche to continue silencing any judges, journalists, and politicians that disagree with him and legitimate hopes to soon to permanently silence civilian saboteurs dissidents into their elimination through sheer fear of death penalty

Ah, I'm sure "Mummy" wouldn't condone or be interested in anything like that.
Would she?

Great Erdogan Repeal Act. It's what St George would have wanted.

Re any possible coalition. Chaotic or otherwise.

In 2010 and 2015 there was talk of what would happen in the event of a hung parliament.

Talk of coalition was there, as was the possibility of a minority government.

I'm yet to see anything about that as a possibility yet.

IF in the unlikely case this were to happen again, then why isn't a minority government a possibility this time?

In someways this might give the LDs more power this time round if they chose not to go into coalition due to the current situation.

woman Early days, but let's spin our prayer wheel that Macron is #1 this round.
That would be excellent, not just going through to beat her in round 2, but doing so in both rounds
(even better would be if Le Pen comes #3, but that's always been most unlikely)

Reports say that the Paris shooting doesn't seem to have ramped up Le Pen's support as IS obviously hoped. Too blatant a provocation maybe.
Or maybe Trump's support for Le Pen was a counterweight to this !

Latest news is that turnout is quite high, which is supposed to be bad for Le Pen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/23/french-election-live-results-exit-polls/

The Great Erdogan Repeal Act. I like that. Maybe we should form the MNetter Party and come up with some popularist policies for our manifesto to rival real parties.

Jasmin Mujanović‏*@JasminMuj*
In 2010s, West (re)learns that fascism of 1930s not aberration but rather ever-present reactionary tendency in its midst. #frenchelection
If a society abandons liberalism bc of a little unemployment, few immigrants then that society wasn't all that liberal to being with.
Or at least that there was far less consensus about value(s) of liberal democracy among white majorities in West than previously assumed.
Issue isn't "populism"; it's long-term drift to the far right among large segments of the white baby boomer generation in particular.
Spoiler: if Western liberal democracy can be reduced to "booming economy + white majoritarianism" then the fascists have already won.

French turnout being reported as 77%.

Lets hope there is not another 2am Sunderland moment.

Matthew Goodwin‏*@GoodwinMJ*
Harris (pollster) saying Le Pen not made it through. Belgian poll saying she has. In 45 minutes one of them will have massive egg on face.

Conclusion: Its close then

Europe Elects‏**@EuropeElects**
France, La Unne:
Macron (EM-*): 26%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 23%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 21%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 17%

Europe Elects‏**@EuropeElects**
France, Harris poll:
Macron (EM-*): 24.5%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 20%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 20%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 18%

Europe Elects‏*@EuropeElects*
France, La Libre:
Macron (EM-*): 24%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 21%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 21%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 19%

This poll has Fillon joint second and Melenchon fourth!

Andrew Neil‏*@afneil*

Melenchon HQ a little gloomy. Le Pen's HQ a media scrum. Macron folks v upbeat. Fillon? Dunno.

Andrew Neil‏*@afneil*
French exit poll in 15 mins. Not really an exit poll. Projections based on actual initial count in 200 carefully selected voting stations

I'm growing increasingly irritated with the WEP lala. I think they are utterly clueless RE Philip Davis and this is just a publicity lark for them. Davies is popular because, whilst he is an utter arsehole, he does work quite hard on local issues when he finds the time. Parachuting a non-local candidate who is obviously standing on one issue will go down like a lead balloon round here. Even the Shipley feminist zealots (they have a FB page ) are angry about it.

I want a good, solid lib dem or labour candidate I can get behind, not this silly media circus.

Thanks for nothing, WEP