Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Here is an interesting point:

Ciarán McGonagle‏*@cpmcgonagle*
Hard Brexiters appear most disappointed with #GE17 - in almost every conceivable scenario their current outsized influence is diluted.

Peter Jukes‏*@peterjukes*
This is my instinct too. May is captive to hardliners with her small majority.

I'm not sure if I agree with that, at this stage, but I think there is merit in the idea...

De lurking to say I just joined the lib dems. Made me feel a tiny bit better.

Plenty of highly unpleasant people have children wrong, it doesn't mark you out as particularly special or deserving of sympathy. Did you weep for Sadam Hussein's children? Or Bin Ladens, ceaucescus, mussolinis, ghadaffis.......

I'll be voting Labour. Our MP is fab.

WrongTrouser You de-lurked so that you could post a response to an obvious joke but you let the ZyklonB troll pass? You're a peach.

I'm gutted though. The timing means I can't go out canvassing.

Hoping Kate Hoey loses her seat.

Better look up the stats for that wish, though. Would hate it to go Con.

Election Data‏*@election*_data
Think we'll see Lib Dems and Labour neck and neck soon. Motivation just got given a date.

This is a curious prediction. Note Andrew Teale is a Labour supporter who is frustrated to the extreme by Labour at the moment. I wouldn't say he was Blairite - he has been pointing out a lot of the problems in that area in his UKIP voter analysis and focus groups.

I'm not sure I agree with it. If it happens I think it will be after the election not before. The reason being that people need to see Labour as having failed and still live on in hope until that happens.

I just joined the lib dems too. I might email my arrogant Tory mp again and send him the job centre website link. He only won by 378 votes and makes Nigel Farage look like a leftie.

TSE‏*@TSEofPB*
We're going to find out if Arron Banks is all fart and no follow through about standing in Clacton.

I love this tweet for so many reasons.

Placemarking.

Also, voting Lib Dems.

Bolshy If you think it's okay to wish children's parents dead, in a democracy where we can influence how our country is run by the ballot box and other democratic means, I don't have anything to say to you.

WrongTrouser You de-lurked so that you could post a response to an obvious joke but you let the ZyklonB troll pass?

I don't think wishing Farage, or anyone, dead is okay just because it's presented as a joke.

Don't know what you mean by the rest of your post.

That was very noticeable wasn't it cat?

I think it's time Farron put his resign or defect speech into action again.

List of Libdem candidates standing in target seats, this predates Sarah Olney getting elected in Richmond Park. www.markpack.org.uk/142288/liberal-democrat-election-candidate-selections/

You can click on the candidates in the link to find out more.

Former Lib Dem MPs reselected
Simon Hughes has been selected again in Bermondsey and Old Southwark.
John Hemming has been selected again in Birmingham Yardley.
Roger Williams has been selected again in Brecon and Radnorshire.
Stephen Williams has been selected again in Bristol West.
Gordon Birtwistle has been selected again in Burnley.
Julian Huppert, as trailed earlier, has been selected again in Cambridge.
Mark Hunter has been selected again in Cheadle.
Martin Horwood has been selected again in Cheltenham.
Stephen Lloyd – as predicted – has been selected again in Eastbourne.
Mike Thornton has been selected again in Eastleigh.
Ed Davey has been selected again in Kingston and Surbiton.
Dan Rogerson has been selected again in North Cornwall.
Vince Cable has been selected again in Twickenham.
Tessa Munt has been selected again in Wells.
Of other former Lib Dem MPs, Steve Webb won’t be standing again.

Lib Dem candidates in other seats lost in 2015
Jay Risbridger is hoping to regain Bath (where Don Foster retired in 2015 and Steve Bradley stood)
Eluned Parrott is hoping to regain Cardiff Central (was Jenny Willott)
Helen Belcher is hoping to regain Chippenham (was Duncan Hames)
Lisa Smart is hoping to regain Hazel Grove (where she stood in 2015 after Andrew Stunell retired)
Dawn Barnes is hoping to regain Hornsey and Wood Green (was Lynne Featherstone)
Kelly-Marie Blundell is hoping to regain Lewes (was Norman Baker)
Vikki Slade is hoping to regain Mid Dorset and North Poole (where she stood in 2015 after Annette Brooke retired)
Gerald Vernon-Jackson is hoping to regain Portsmouth South (where he stood in 2015 after Mike Hancock was kicked out of the party)
Joanna Kenny is hoping to win back St Austell and Newquay (where Stephen Gilbert was the MP 2010-15)
Ade Adeyemo is hoping to regain Solihull (was Lorely Burt)
Mark Blackburn is hoping to regain Somerton and Frome (where David Heath retired in 2015 and David Rendell stood)
Amna Ahmad is hoping to regain Sutton and Cheam (was Paul Burstow)
Gideon Amos is hoping to regain Taunton Deane (where Jeremy Browne retired in 2015 and Rachel Gilmour stood)
Claire Young is hoping to regain Thornbury and Yate (was Steve Webb)
Daisy Benson is hoping to regain Yeovil (was David Laws)

Lib Dem candidates in seats lost earlier than 2015
Phil Hutty is hoping to win back Cornwall South East (where Colin Breed was the MP until 2010)
Zöe Franklin is hoping to win back Guildford (where Sue Doughty was the MP until 2005)
Helen Flynn is hoping to win back Harrogate (where Phil Willis was the MP until 2010)
Heather Kidd is hoping to win back Ludlow (where Matthew Green was the MP until 2005)
Jane Dodds is hoping to win back Montgomeryshire (where Lembit Opik was the MP until 2010)
Layla Moran is hoping to win back Oxford West and Abingdon (where Evan Harris was the MP until 2010)
Sarah Olney is hoping to win back Richmond Park (where Susan Kramer was the MP until 2010)
Andy Kelly is hoping to win back Rochdale (where Paul Rowen was the MP until 2010)
Hannah Fraser is hoping to win ‘back’ Shrewsbury & Atcham (where Paul Marsden was a Lib Dem MP in 2001-5, after defecting from Labour in late 2001)
Martin Wrigley is hoping to win back Torridge and West Devon (where Emma Nicholson switched from the Tories to the Lib Dems in 1995 and John Burnett then won the seat for the party in 1997 and 2001)
Rob Nolan is hoping to win Truro and Falmouth (which contains parts of the former constituencies of Truro and St Austell – where Matthew Taylor was an MP – and Falmouth and Camborne – where Julia Goldsworthy was an MP)
Jackie Porter is hoping to win back Winchester (where Mark Oaten was the MP until 2010)

Not surprisingly the pound rallied after the announcement.

I'll be voting and leafleting for the Lib Dems this time round - Brexit will be by far the biggest election issue, and they have the potential to make up a lot of ground.

Shocked but not surprised by how Machiavellian TM and the Tories are being - it really is about power at all costs for them.

Just watched the Scottish lunchtime news. They are presenting it as a GE not just on Brexit but also on Nationalism versus Unionism. This could help or hinder Indyref2 and the stalemate re the N Ireland Assembly. Also talk of Wales rejigging.

I assume RD at least will campaign on this strategy and because of NS's dominance the only way is down. There were 11 LibDem seats in Scotland in 2010 and a lot of them could revert. I don't see any way either the LibDems, or Labour could moot any sort of coalition with the SNP and neither could the SNP.

Local news says that the Gorton By-Election will still go ahead as planned in May. But the media focus is going to be huge. And then they get to do it all again in June!!!

Which is bonkers but apparently legally very difficult to change. How many people will vote in both, and why will the media bother reporting it?!

If the LD won, and won well there it could really put a cat amongst the pigeons because of how it will be hyped. Even though it means bugger all in theory. I'd say a LD win there would be more likely there now for that reason, because why the hell would you bother voting in May if you were going to do it again in June if you were a Labour voter? Where's the incentive or reason to do so?

Off to join the lib dems.....

🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️
Poor people of Manchester Gorton

I've just joined the Lib Dems, am in what was a key marginal in 2015.

And DD looked slightly shocked at being able to vote in her first general election some way before she was expecting! I've said it is vital she tries to galvanise all her friends (the just turning 18 lot) out to vote.

Why the rush to the polls now?

Why not wait until after Brexit to call the election as originally planned?

The writing must really be on the wall regarding Brexit for TM to change her mind so drastically.

Peter, I agree. The wheels have been coming off for a while, since reality bit and it started becoming clear that the cake and eat it option was not on the table.

She knows very well that she's way more likely to win now than in 2020, when the banks and car manufacturers etc have buggered off, the cost of living has rocketed and the effects of Brexit have generally become clear.

The "Is Jeremy Corbyn lovely?" thread on Chat at the moment is really, really something.

Honestly. I always think my despair about Corbyn being leader of Labour at the moment has hit its nadir - but I am always wrong.

I'm actually beginning to feel a cold, hard rage about anyone who voted for Corbyn as a 'virtue signal'. What an utterly irresponsible thing to do, when parliamentary politics is about parliamentary power.

I am also enraged when I think back to the likes of Paul Mason and the drivel about an 'extra-parliamentary politics'. That's worked out very well, hasn't it?

Honestly, when does the madness end?